India Economy Thread II

[MeMumbaikar]

Originally Posted by srivatsayb

not the coal india ipo brother, the coal auctioning for power and steel plants instead of allocation..the so called coalgate...

Good news, Crude nearing 100..i hope it stays put there or lower...CNBC says govt expecting 35000cr windfall from retro tax on offshore capital gains...this plus spectrum auctions means the givt fiscal def target can be met...

hmm brent crude is holding at 107

[srivatsayb]

Originally Posted by MeMumbaikar

hmm brent crude is holding at 107

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83H17O20120531

Brent at 103...Lets see if it goes below 100 in the short term...

[srivatsayb]

4th Quarter GDP falls to 5.3% !!! bad bad number...2011-12 GDP overall growth is 6.5%...

Manufacturing sector saw negative growth as expected in the last quarter...IF UPA still does not get it, they rather go...

[TutConr]

GDP growth at 5.3% for Q4, slowest in 9 years

NEW DELHI: India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a mere 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of the financial year as against 7.8 per cent in the same quarter last year.
Growth hit a nine year low as the manufacturing sector contracted and a fall in the rupee to a record low suggests the economy remains under pressure in the current quarter.

GDP for the September to December 2011 quarter grew at 6.1 per cent. The GDP growth rate was drastically below the consensus estimates of 6.1 per cent.

The GDP growth rate for FY12 dropped to 6.5 per cent versus a robust 8.4 percent in FY11.

While the growth in the manufacturing sector fell to 0.3 per cent in Q4 as against 0.4 per cent in Q3, the growth in the construction sector also dipped at 4.8 per cent versus 7.2 per cent in Q3. The financial services sector of the economy belied trend and grew at 10 per cent versus 9 per cent in the third quarter.

According to the figures released by the government, the FY12 revenue gap stood at Rs 3.847 lakh crore versus Rs 3.949 lakh crore in the previous year. The FY12 fiscal deficit was at 5.8 per cent of the GDP as against the budget aim of 5.9 per cent.

Commenting on the disappointing numbers, Taimur Baig of Deutsche Bank told ET Now that with inflation high, he did not expect much action in the monetary policy review in June. He emphasised the need to revive expectations.

Sajid Chinoy of JP Morgan expressed concern over both the pressures from Europe which might have a spillover affect and the supply side constraints that have developed in some sectors in the economy. "Investor confidence will return if twin deficits are dealt with," he told ET Now.

C Rangrajan, Chairman of PMEAC said, "Obviously it is a disappointing one. Decline in industrial production has not been offset by growth in agri production. Going ahead we can still expect 6.5-7% as agri is likley to do well with expectation of a good monsoon, manufacturing will rise from a low base and service sector will record decent growth."

He said that the government has in principle decided to correct diesel prices but the actual decision is influenced by political considerations. However he added that in the course of the year steps will be taken to control subsidies to keep the fiscal deficit in check.

Pronab Sen, principal advisor, Planning Commision told ET Now that not enough action had been done on the fiscal policy front and that there was a need to change that.

A slew of banks and economists cut their growth forecasts of the Indian economy for the financial year 2012-13.

They are worried that a lethal cocktail of poor macro indicators and an environment of policy drift has cast a darker shadow on the economy than previously thought.

________


Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/13683605.cms





I think it is a good idea to make Pranab President.

[OldKool]

4-5% that's what I predict for 2012-2013 and then 2013-14 (3-4%)...imports will drop sharply and exports will rise marginally .... corruption scams , lack of sanitation and infra deficit have hurt Indian GDP with about $700-600 bil in its years of economic growth


slowdown is cancerous and UPA2 is feeding it with stupid policies despite that it is inevitable given the saturation of Indian Middle Class while poor went deeper into the poverty hence nothing being added to the market.. gap between rich and poor is HUMONGOUS and poses the risk of violence and crime in next 10 years, all the newly rich would either move abroad or slowly get diluted into their previous economic levels...industrial activity will come to a stand still and brief economic dynamism of India will take its last breath somewhere at the end 2014...

[MeMumbaikar]

poor

dont know where to begin

I hope we have hit rock bottom. Anything below 5% for India is the same as a recession.


DUMP MAMATA NOW AND PASS REFORMS

[zenith_suv]

I feel mamta is an over hyped issue and UPA 2 is just downright lazy and populist to the core. They are nothing but commies in denial. West bengal is running a huge deficiet and cannot afford to dump the central govt as there will be no special bailout package for them then, which leaves the state in a hopeless situation and mamta with little chance of re election given the year that she has had.

Pranab mukherjee is also a hopeless finance minister. I mean what kind of an idiot thinks that token austerity measures by ministers is going to save the economy. Not to mention amazingly stupid announcements during the volatile of times, such as GAAR and retrospective tax amendments after loosing in the supreme court, it gives out the impression that govt is in vendetta mode at a time when investor sentiment is of utmost importance.

Just announce the scrapping of these two stupid things and watch hot money zoom back into the market which will in the very short term at least help the rupee and reduce CAD , help bring prices down and give more room for subsidy control.

[srivatsayb]

Originally Posted by OldKool

4-5% that's what I predict for 2012-2013 and then 2013-14 (3-4%)...imports will drop sharply and exports will rise marginally .... corruption scams , lack of sanitation and infra deficit have hurt Indian GDP with about $700-600 bil in its years of economic growth


slowdown is cancerous and UPA2 is feeding it with stupid policies despite that it is inevitable given the saturation of Indian Middle Class while poor went deeper into the poverty hence nothing being added to the market.. gap between rich and poor is HUMONGOUS and poses the risk of violence and crime in next 10 years, all the newly rich would either move abroad or slowly get diluted into their previous economic levels...industrial activity will come to a stand still and brief economic dynamism of India will take its last breath somewhere at the end 2014...

Wow!! Dont worry brother...nothing of that sort will happen...Our economy is far stronger now than it was before...

Yes local factors are 50% but the whole global scenario too matters...if it improves then we will be back to 7% but if we will have a world recession like in 2008 then we are screwed at-least for this year and may touch only 5%..

Growth rates the world over are plunging..Even china may do only 7% this year..Europe will be in recession and the US is till in a slump...I wonder if both Europe and US will go a fiscal stimulus like in 2010 now...

My bigger worry is this, UPA has 2 options

1) Reform and be ready for the slump to end
2) Become populist and think of restricting 2014 losses hoping to come back in 2017 or something(http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/13685372.cms)

2nd option is really dangerous and will result in a long time slowdown for our country..

BJP and INC should sit and talk and pass reforms now..forget mamata or whoever..If they dont talk, what will happen is even if NDA comes to power in 2014, no bill will be passed as the congress will pay it back in kind either with its rajyasabha strength or state governments...

Political maturity is the need of the hour for both the national parties...

[gentem]

Originally Posted by MeMumbaikar

poor

dont know where to begin

I hope we have hit rock bottom. Anything below 5% for India is the same as a recession.


DUMP MAMATA NOW AND PASS REFORMS

Stop blaming mamata, it all happened because of rahul baba's UP poll dream They hiked crr rate so much to control inflation during that poll during q4 fy2012. Full govt stopped breathing for 6 months to face UP polls. Petrol hike stalled. RBI lowered repo rate immediately after polls over and you call rbi independent of govt mamata is not against fdi in aviation, only she is opposing is fdi in retail. 51% FDI in retail im not sure if we are mature yet, let us see if reliance fresh and big bazaar can up the game.

[srivatsayb]

Originally Posted by gentem

Stop blaming mamata, it all happened because of rahul baba's UP poll dream They hiked crr rate so much to control inflation during that poll during q4 fy2012. Full govt stopped breathing for 6 months to face UP polls. Petrol hike stalled. RBI lowered repo rate immediately after polls over and you call rbi independent of govt mamata is not against fdi in aviation, only she is opposing is fdi in retail. 51% FDI in retail im not sure if we are mature yet, let us see if reliance fresh and big bazaar can up the game.

Mamata is against FDI in Aviation : http://business-standard.com/india/n...-end/163404/on

CRR Rate was at 6 from early last year and cut in January this year when inflation eased a bit...Its 4.75 now...


I guess now we will see both a repo and a CRR cut come june 17th..

[SSCaddict]

mamata is against FDI in aviation also.

OMG! I mean kick out the congress, we want someone with a majority, if that is not possible then please come together and pass reforms, i mean everyone is to blame. Corporates should come together and invest. Start the capex cycle and cut interest rates. Damn ban team anna and control media.

And cancel the retrospective tax laws.

do something idiots.

[Euromast]

Why Mamta is against FDI in aviation? She is against everything

[gentem]

mamata is not against fdi in aviation. dont trust congress propaganda people in this forum. she is opposing fdi in retail. allowing 49% fdi by foreign airlines would have sent businessmen a good signal from govt that it will help them in crisis

another blunder by pranab. packaged software like adobe photoshop and microsoft windows are not utility products, but since they are protected by copyright they are art products like leonardo da vinchi and music. so they should give royalty retrospectively

@srivatsayb, you are losing credibility for sake of politics. dont quote some unknown sources

[srivatsayb]

Originally Posted by gentem

mamata is not against fdi in aviation. dont trust congress propaganda people in this forum. she is opposing fdi in retail. allowing 49% fdi by foreign airlines would have sent businessmen a good signal from govt that it will help them in crisis

another blunder by pranab. packaged software like adobe photoshop and microsoft windows are not utility products, but since they are protected by copyright they are art products like leonardo da vinchi and music. so they should give royalty retrospectively

@srivatsayb, you are losing credibility for sake of politics. dont quote some unknown sources

What do you mean by "Congress propaganda people"...find out some news stories and then talk...Oh of-course you will call them paid-media then...

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/fdi-in-av.../249875-7.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__Jbdiyrlec

http://www.financialexpress.com/news...sharma/951126/

http://www.livemint.com/2012/05/0900...to-be-cle.html

Being "BJP propaganda person" please show me where TMC has supported FDI in aviation..u r so confident right!!

[gentem]

Sources had also indicated that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Commerce Minister Anand Sharma and Aviation Minister Ajit Singh are in favour of FDI but there are concerns within the government over the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) opposing the proposal.

Earlier, the West Bengal chief minister and TMC chief Mamata Banerjee had voiced concerns over the proposal.

According to a TMC leader who didn’t want to be identified, aviation minister Ajit Singh took up the matter with Banerjee during his recent visit to Kolkata.

sources?? what sources?? your video says "sources: fdi deferred". concern, green light?? all this dint want to be identified are not news. exactly this is called propoganda. your report first para says home ministry quashed fdi proposal

show a video where mamata/spokesperson says they against fdi in aviation that is news. rest is propoganda/leaks. I put facts, not unconfirmed reports, nor propoganda

when you are not ready to mend ways, this is not the only issue in previous pages, you are diverting one issue after another, other forummers will take a call for themselves.. you told upa yet did not do any disinvestment yet and then diverted, acknowledge something

Originally Posted by kalkibhagwan

Doing what you do best, anti modi propaganda .... It seems after being kicked out of GIFT thread, this is the new thread you have selected for your drama.... Grow up kiddo

seems you have propaganda in other threads as well. learn to differentiate between actual news and some sources leaks and views. highlighting leaks or unconfirmed news is what you are doing which is the definition of propaganda.

[srivatsayb]

Originally Posted by gentem

sources?? what sources?? your video says "sources: fdi deferred". concern, green light?? all this dint want to be identified are not news. exactly this is called propoganda. your%2preport first para says home ministry quashed fdi proposal

show a video where mamata/spokesperson says they against fdi in aviation that is news. rest is propoganda/leaks. I put facts, not unconfirmed reports, nor propoganda

when you are not ready to mend ways, this is not the only issue in previous pages, you are diverting one issue after another, other forummers will take a call for themselves.. you told upa yet did not do any disinvestment yet and then diverted, acknowledge something



seems you have propaganda in other threads as well. learn to differentiate between actual news and some sources leaks and views. highlighting leaks or unconfirmed news is what you are doing which is the definition of propaganda.

What do you mean by diverted? This thread is a general discussion on Indian economy and people post news that emerge everyday...We had a discussion on Coal and spectrum allocation and today the GDP numbers came in and me(and also others) posted about that...

Anyways leave it, no point in doing this and shifting agenda to me and you on a day when india's gdp got screwed...if you feel i am diverting one issue to another, then good for you...

P.S : (editing) for your addition about the GIFT thread, i have raised questions which were answered and also pounced upon(using words like kicked out and all is silly, but that's expected)..this is not a BJP supporters forum, i can show you a 1000's of pro-BJP posts/leaks/unconfirmed news here..similar you can expect pro-UPA posts also..if you call them propaganda then so be it..The same holds true for many of your posts also... If you can read clearly then you will see that i did not even bring up the Mamata issue and was suggesting on what could be done by the INC and BJP together...

[MeMumbaikar]

lets stick to the topic.

and i stick by it. Mamata bannerjee is the biggest bar to all of this.

The congress should take the hand of the BSP and start passing reforms dumping mamata. It will cost them some seats in WB but save them a lot more in India.

the bjp and congress are not going to come together. Come what may.

[desiyogi]

Let's give WB special status and let Mamata didi do whatever she wants there...

and let reforms pass in the rest of the country.

[srivatsayb]

BSP interesting...something must be done to break this laziness and impasse...

I am amazed that the sensex did not fall very badly today!! Thought it will crash 500pts..I think the markets may have already factored in a bad GDP number(also europe held better today)...Just 2 months ago saw one of the biggest 3-4 month rally :-) ..it seems distant history now...

Service GDP% falling below 8% is a bad sign...

[MeMumbaikar]

europe saved the sensex today


trust me through its going to fall in the next month to reflect reality unless ther eis something spectacular in the west in terms of growth (which i doubt)


maybe its about time the congress probably decide that they cant do it alone in UP and join hands with one of the local UP majors in some sort of seat alliance.
Pay the dogs off and pass reform.


One just has to look at the KKR celebrations to realise this woman is crazy