Transport Projects in Ireland

[thebig C]

Originally Posted by CelticCub

Not by a long shot - they are to serve the new entrance on Pearse Street.

Aha...I'd assumed that it was just an upgrade. Pearse St along with many other railway stations coasted through the Celtic Tiger with little or no renovation.

I was in Galway Station recently and its a disgrace. Squalid is being generous. They were supposed to be incorporating a revamped station in a new development (which typically was in planning for years much like Kent Station in Cork), but since that construction is obviously no going ahead you'd think they could at least decorate the Station.

C

[Dvblvnia]

Originally Posted by JD47

I doubt it mate. I know to well not to get my hopes up when it comes to major construction in this country.

Sadly, you're quite right. The likes of DART Underground, Metro North and Luas BXD should have been started years ago and should all be nearing completion/completed. We had the money to do it during the boom but we didn't because of a lack of vision, tortuous planning, quibbling over details and a low priority ascribed to public transport.

thebig C is quite right about the state of Pearse Station. It looks very much like it did 20 years ago now except a little worse. You really see the state of disrepair at the station when you approach it from the south of Westland Row. The windows are broken or missing from the platform covering, those that are unbroken look grimy and the place is very dark. Compared to Heuston and Connolly it is very unappealing which is terrible considering it too is a major railway station.

[spacetweek]

Pearse Station is currently being renovated and should look much better soon.
DART Underground will start as soon as the IMF bailout/austerity is over at the end of 2015. Hopefully sooner.

[Gaillimh]

Originally Posted by spacetweek

DART Underground will start as soon as the IMF bailout/austerity is over at the end of 2015. Hopefully sooner.

The only rail project in 2015 will be Luax BXD.

We won't be seeing Dart Underground for another decade at least.

[spacetweek]

Originally Posted by Gaillimh

The only rail project in 2015 will be Luax BXD.

We won't be seeing Dart Underground for another decade at least.

Nope, what was agreed is that Luas BXD would start before end-2015. The rest would be re-evaluated at that point as borrowing restrictions are lifted. Since both Metro and DART are essential, they will be greenlighted immediately. We should have both by about 2022.

[Seravia]

I find that unlikely. I suppose it's possible that one of them will be completed by 2022, but I doubt both of them will be. Still, we can hope.

[JD47]

I cant see Dublin having a either by 2022. They wont even begin construction for another 10 years let alone be finished in 10. Would be great though to have them both if we got the 2023 RWC.

[thebig C]

Originally Posted by JD47

I cant see Dublin having a either by 2022. They wont even begin construction for another 10 years let alone be finished in 10. Would be great though to have them both if we got the 2023 RWC.

Actually, getting that could serve as an incentive to invest in these kinds of infrastructure projects!

[thebig C]

Originally Posted by Seravia

I find that unlikely. I suppose it's possible that one of them will be completed by 2022, but I doubt both of them will be. Still, we can hope.

I am inclined to agree that we will have one or the other by 2022 but not both.

At the launch of Luas BXD I noted that Leo Varadkar was very emphatic that Luas could be built out of existing funds without the necessity of borrowing. Maybe I'm optimistic but I thought that held out the Olive Branch of a PPP and Private funding to get at least one of the other projects running!

[Dvblvnia]

I think whether we get DART Underground will depend a lot on the economic situation over the next ten years. If we were to see an emphatic resolution to the euro crisis this Autumn with banking deals, quantitative easing and other stimulus we could see confidence, investment and spending coming back across the eurozone. This would boost growth, cut deficits and improve indebtedness profiles. Then growth of 1-2% per annum could resume in Europe with a corresponding improvement in the growth rate of Ireland to about 3% a year. In that context, projects like DART Underground would become much more feasible from a funding point of view. While the Celtic Tiger boom wasn't sufficient to make Government put the funding into major public transport projects, perhaps now that the likes of Metro North, Luas BXD and DART Underground have the relevant planning permission in the form of Railway Orders could prove critical in greasing the wheels towards delivery of them. That said, there doesn't seem to be a deep appreciation of the role public transport can play in delivering competitive, attractive environments in which people live, work and relax in government circles. The recently-announced stimulus package is a case in point - roads projects were the primary (indeed, almost sole) beneficiary from the additional funds. No additional public transport projects (like Cork Suburban Rail or track re-laying) were announced as part of the package.

[Gaillimh]

Originally Posted by spacetweek

Since both Metro and DART are essential, they will be greenlighted immediately. We should have both by about 2022.

No offence, man, but you need to take off those rose-tinted shades.

We'd be lucky to have any progress on the DART project by the end of this decade. Saying that DU and Metro North will be completed by 2022 is just plain bonkers. It's not going to happen.

Sorry to be so pessimistic but the best we can hope for over the next 5 years is the commencement of BXD, but even that project could be deferred if there is a change in government, budget cuts or more austerity over the next few years.

Just because Leo says it's all definitely going ahead doesn't mean it is. Remember all the promises for Transport 21? Don't get your hopes up on the word of a politician.

[spacetweek]

Originally Posted by Gaillimh

No offence, man, but you need to take off those rose-tinted shades.

We'd be lucky to have any progress on the DART project by the end of this decade. Saying that DU and Metro North will be completed by 2022 is just plain bonkers. It's not going to happen.

Sorry to be so pessimistic but the best we can hope for over the next 5 years is the commencement of BXD, but even that project could be deferred if there is a change in government, budget cuts or more austerity over the next few years.

Just because Leo says it's all definitely going ahead doesn't mean it is. Remember all the promises for Transport 21? Don't get your hopes up on the word of a politician.

Perhaps you need to remove your black-tinted ones!
I am not basing this on what Leo says, I stopped listening to him a while ago at this stage. He's careful not to set a high expectation of what can be delivered so keeps pouring cold water on everything. That way, if he delivers anything at all, it makes him look good.

As for DU and MN, I'm assuming these can go ahead as their cost using a PPP is very modest (not sure of updated figures now but MN was only to cost 160M a year from the date of opening, i.e. 2022) and both have planning permission and strong buy-in from business, local areas affected etc.

Assuming DU is a similar loan maintenance cost and even conservatively assuming the cost hasn't come down since it was last estimated (which is unlikely), that's zero cost between now and 2022 and only 320M a year thereafter. Out of the whole road and public transport budget that is nothing.

[geogregor]

Originally Posted by spacetweek

Perhaps you need to remove your black-tinted ones!
I am not basing this on what Leo says, I stopped listening to him a while ago at this stage. He's careful not to set a high expectation of what can be delivered so keeps pouring cold water on everything. That way, if he delivers anything at all, it makes him look good.

As for DU and MN, I'm assuming these can go ahead as their cost using a PPP is very modest (not sure of updated figures now but MN was only to cost 160M a year from the date of opening, i.e. 2022) and both have planning permission and strong buy-in from business, local areas affected etc.

Assuming DU is a similar loan maintenance cost and even conservatively assuming the cost hasn't come down since it was last estimated (which is unlikely), that's zero cost between now and 2022 and only 320M a year thereafter. Out of the whole road and public transport budget that is nothing.

Are you serious? Eurozone is just about to collapse (or get stuck in protracted recession) and you are talking about building two big public transport projects using PPP? Who will invest in it?
I can't see it happening. At least not in a time-frame you are hoping for. It looks like business and politicians in Ireland value road projects much more than rail. That's where majority of limited private funds willing to invest in Ireland will go.

[spacetweek]

Originally Posted by geogregor

Are you serious? Eurozone is just about to collapse (or get stuck in protracted recession) and you are talking about building two big public transport projects using PPP? Who will invest in it?
I can't see it happening. At least not in a time-frame you are hoping for. It looks like business and politicians in Ireland value road projects much more than rail. That's where majority of limited private funds willing to invest in Ireland will go.

The interest rate on long-term bonds keeps falling. Money for the road PPPs has been found, I don't know why you think it won't be for railways.

[belfastuniguy]

Originally Posted by spacetweek

The interest rate on long-term bonds keeps falling. Money for the road PPPs has been found, I don't know why you think it won't be for railways.

You really don't get it.....


There isn't a hope in hell of either of those projects being progressed for the next 5-10 years. There is no resolution to the economic problems plaguing Europe. Irish exports are steady but the domestic economy is fragile and domestic banking industry paralysed by debt and loans that will never be paid.

Irish economic stability is on a lynchpin and completely reliant on stability and growth in Europe. France is about to enter recession, German economic growth is in decline, your largest trading partner, the UK, is back in recession.

I have no idea how you can even think that a massive PPP led infrastructure will commence in the next few years, it utterly ignores economic reality.

[thebig C]

Hey

If a PPP is examined, its fairly safe to say it would be solely pitched at Irish and European Banks. All options will be examined.

For example, I believe Mitsui offered to build and operate the Metro several years ago. Granted times have changed but there are alternative options!

C

[oneborneveryminute]

Originally Posted by geogregor

Are you serious? Eurozone is just about to collapse (or get stuck in protracted recession) and you are talking about building two big public transport projects using PPP? Who will invest in it?
I can't see it happening. At least not in a time-frame you are hoping for. It looks like business and politicians in Ireland value road projects much more than rail. That's where majority of limited private funds willing to invest in Ireland will go.

The end of the world is here at last. Hope you're ready for the Rapture.

There is more chance of Elvis Presley crashing a UFO into the Loch Ness monster than of the Eurozone collapsing. That is right wing guff from the enemies of the Eurozone. In due course there will be a very big stimulus package to get the Euro economies moving. It will focus on large public transport projects among other things. We will see MN and DU quicker than many think.

[geogregor]

Originally Posted by oneborneveryminute

The end of the world is here at last. Hope you're ready for the Rapture.

There is more chance of Elvis Presley crashing a UFO into the Loch Ness monster than of the Eurozone collapsing. That is right wing guff from the enemies of the Eurozone. In due course there will be a very big stimulus package to get the Euro economies moving. It will focus on large public transport projects among other things. We will see MN and DU quicker than many think.

Ok, Ok, I give up.
Europe is booming, money is lyaing on the streets just ready to be picked up, unemployement in Spain is falling, Greece problems are solved, Italy is growing, Ireland will build extensive public transport network in the next 5-10 years.

[oneborneveryminute]

Originally Posted by geogregor

Ok, Ok, I give up.
Europe is booming, money is lyaing on the streets just ready to be picked up, unemployement in Spain is falling, Greece problems are solved, Italy is growing, Ireland will build extensive public transport network in the next 5-10 years.

You know it makes sense.
By the way, just to be on the safe side, you should still go with the rest of your Euro Doom Cult members into your bunkers and await the 2nd coming.
You'll be the first for the chop otherwise when the Rapture begins.

[geogregor]

Originally Posted by oneborneveryminute

You know it makes sense.
By the way, just to be on the safe side, you should still go with the rest of your Euro Doom Cult members into your bunkers and await the 2nd coming.
You'll be the first for the chop otherwise when the Rapture begins.

Well, as committed atheist I don't give a damn about second coming and Raptures
I guess in my case atheism goes hand in hand with a solid dose of skepticism. Especially towards the glossy promises of politicians offering easy solutions to big problems
Dublin public transport projects in my opinion fall into this category. But of course I'll be happy to be proven wrong. We could even bet. I offer bottle of vodka, you can offer bottle o whiskey and we'll see in few years who was right