Detroit 20 years from now?

[TVN]

Hello from Denmark ;-)

Richard Florida predict Detroit to be potiential attractive city for new creative activity:

Question how could it influence the image and development?

Creative class hero and Atlantic Senior Editor Richard Florida debuted the second of five videos produced for the Detroit Rising series yesterday. The first feature for The Atlantic Cities website set the tone with Florida saying, "It is not like there was any big government plan to remake Detroit. In fact, most government plans hurt the city over time. It's really the efforts of creative people." With the release of this week's installment, we see Florida get a little deeper into his creative class theories. Episode 2 is titled Detroit's Creative Potential and has Florida respond to the question: How to get people to move into Detroit?

I don't think we have to convince more young people to move to Detroit. I think it's already happening and the people who want to be here are here and finding it . . . I think what Detroit offers is for young people or interesting people or engaged people — artists, innovators, musicians, designers, city-builders, place-makers — it offers something for them, and it doesn't have to advertise. It'll just happen.
So basically Florida is taking a very Zen-like it's-already-happening-so-let-it-happen approach, which sounds good to us. Past official attempts to dole out "Cool City" designations does not a cool city make. We also get to watch Florida list all of Detroit's music legends, which isn't all that exciting, but we'd be lying if we said it didn't warm our Detroit music hearts a little when he throws Liverpool, Leeds, and Manchester under the bus while doing so. Still, nothing groundbreaking here but we'll tune in next week to see what's next.

[TVN]

Originally Posted by TVN

Hello from Denmark ;-)

Richard Florida predict Detroit to be potiential attractive city for new creative activity:

Question how could it influence the image and development?

Ok, no answer. I think Detroit will be a creative hotspot in 20 years. Wait and see.

[Jennifat]

TVN, I think people aren't replying because you didn't post a link where we can read the full article. You're basically just posting a disembodied quote without context and asking us to weigh in. I'd like to get the overall gist of the piece before I make any comments.

Can you please post a link to the full article? Thanks!

[hudkina]

And your question isn't very coherent. Are you asking what we think the city will look like in 20 years?

[papa_spaz]

Originally Posted by hudkina

And your question isn't very coherent. Are you asking what we think the city will look like in 20 years?

20 years from now I predict Detroit will be in the same situation as it is now.

Detroit's population is just under 700,000. In 20 years the population will shrink down to around 400,000 and the city will shrink in square miles.

[SpraysOnBlue]

It is impossible that Detroit as we now know it can even exist 20 years from now. The city is bankrupt.... morally and fiscally. The people that are in office are the most ignorant idiots that exist on the entire planet.

The only way it can even exist 20 years from now is if the city dissolves into smaller municipalities that can be self-governed.

[hudkina]

What will that help? While a few select areas would certainly benefit, the vast majority of the city would be no better than it is now, and arguably worse. Highland Park is a perfect example of how a smaller "community" wouldn't necessarily be better off.

If anything, the best option would be a regional government that consists of all the communities that are currently within Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb Counties.

[Avian001]

Originally Posted by hudkina

What will that help? While a few select areas would certainly benefit, the vast majority of the city would be no better than it is now, and arguably worse. Highland Park is a perfect example of how a smaller "community" wouldn't necessarily be better off.

If anything, the best option would be a regional government that consists of all the communities that are currently within Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb Counties.

I agree. Ever since my short residency in Detroit years ago I felt it needed a regional authority with the power to supersede actions taken by local governments. It might be modeled on the Metropolitan Council in Minnesota or the Metro in Oregon. Like those Met Councils it could manage the regional transportation system, water and sewer systems, parks and trails, and aviation services.

[goonsta]

I see a vibrant downtown, and maybe a few nodes being revived, such as Midtown and New Center. But it will take more than 20 for development to spread to the outer neighborhoods. Overall I think Detroit will "feel" healthier even if the population is still dropping.

[bayviews]

Originally Posted by SpraysOnBlue

It is impossible that Detroit as we now know it can even exist 20 years from now. The city is bankrupt.... morally and fiscally. The people that are in office are the most ignorant idiots that exist on the entire planet.

The only way it can even exist 20 years from now is if the city dissolves into smaller municipalities that can be self-governed.

That's an interesting possibility.

[Middle-Island]

You can't comprehend how vacant and abandoned this city is until you've seen Detroit on Google Earth. Then go down to Street View, and the few houses you see via satellite on some blocks are shells in many cases too.

I doubt there will be any great renewal outside of downtown, but a modest urban renaissance is taking place around the center city with condos. But it's hard to assume anything incredible for Detroit the next 20 years. This with the backdrop of this country's ongoing fiscal and political ills as well -- and not to be remedied any time soon, either.

[hudkina]

Originally Posted by Middle-Island

You can't comprehend how vacant and abandoned this city is until you've seen Detroit on Google Earth. Then go down to Street View, and the few houses you see via satellite on some blocks are shells in many cases too.

There are still plenty of viable neighborhoods, and the emptiest neighborhoods will be the easiest to redevelop. I think the Poletown area is perfectly ripe for some kind of radical urban revision strategy.

[desertpunk]

Detroit is evolving into a nice, clean city of 250,000. Unless there's a sea change towards free market principles by the city government, I doubt Detroit will ever recover much of what was lost.

[ducus]

Originally Posted by desertpunk

Detroit is evolving into a nice, clean city of 250,000. Unless there's a sea change towards free market principles by the city government, I doubt Detroit will ever recover much of what was lost.

How do you know that when will reach this number will be a clean city? You don't have any guarantee that it will be so. It hasn't been like that when the city peaked, not in the '80's or '90's etc. The people will still be the same, black majority, the poverty rate and the unemployment will be the same! Or do you think that the dissapeareance of antoher 500k. (untill will reach pop. 250k.) will solve the problem just like that? Let's not deceive!
The same thing for Philly, St. Louis or Cleveland, even the population will decrease 50%, the problem still remains!

[desertpunk]

Originally Posted by ducus

How do you know that when will reach this number will be a clean city? You don't have any guarantee that it will be so. It hasn't been like that when the city peaked, not in the '80's or '90's etc. The people will still be the same, black majority, the poverty rate and the unemployment will be the same! Or do you think that the dissapeareance of antoher 500k. (untill will reach pop. 250k.) will solve the problem just like that? Let's not deceive!
The same thing for Philly, St. Louis or Cleveland, even the population will decrease 50%, the problem still remains!

Large parts of Detroit are already clean and tidy with refurbished buildings and public spaces. The city will only be nicer as it shrinks to a smaller core of committed, functioning citizens. The poverty and unemployment were endemic to a large city that had lost many employers due to terrible policies and economic changes beyond anyone's control there. Eventually those people move on, which is exactly what's happening. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are perfect examples of this. As those cities shrink, the balance is shifting from a majority of residents who are struggling to a majority that is working, more affluent, and are part of the efforts to rebuild. For Detroit, the balance will shift too, probably at 250,000 or so.

[hudkina]

I don't know about 250,000. The 25% drop between 2000 and 2010 had a lot to do with the collapse of the housing bubble and the severe economic downturn experienced. While the city will absolutely see population loss for at least another few decades, unless we have another economic meltdown, the loss will be far less. By 2020, the city will likely have a population somewhere in the 600,000-615,000 range, with most of that loss occurring in the first half of the decade. By 2030, the population will likely be somewhere in the 540,000-560,000 range.

By 2030, the changes that have been occurring over the last couple of years (regional transit, downtown office/retail jobs, new residential, etc.) will have reached a critical mass and the number of new people moving into the Greater Downtown area may begin to offset the losses that will continue in the more impoverished neighborhoods. The best neighborhoods will also continue to stabilize.

While obviously, there's no way of knowing what will happen in the future, I highly doubt the city's population will fall below 500,000 people.

[desertpunk]

Originally Posted by hudkina

I don't know about 250,000. The 25% drop between 2000 and 2010 had a lot to do with the collapse of the housing bubble and the severe economic downturn experienced. While the city will absolutely see population loss for at least another few decades, unless we have another economic meltdown, the loss will be far less. By 2020, the city will likely have a population somewhere in the 600,000-615,000 range, with most of that loss occurring in the first half of the decade. By 2030, the population will likely be somewhere in the 540,000-560,000 range.

By 2030, the changes that have been occurring over the last couple of years (regional transit, downtown office/retail jobs, new residential, etc.) will have reached a critical mass and the number of new people moving into the Greater Downtown area may begin to offset the losses that will continue in the more impoverished neighborhoods. The best neighborhoods will also continue to stabilize.

While obviously, there's no way of knowing what will happen in the future, I highly doubt the city's population will fall below 500,000 people.

I sure hope you're right. Thinking about Pittsburgh, it's probably better than its ever been with quality projects and attractions, a diverse economy and rebuilt neighborhoods. But the population losses have been stubborn. We all want to see these great cities grow again like they did 100 years ago but it just may not be in the cards.

[hudkina]

Pittsburgh is a perfect example that a city doesn't have to "regain" its lost population to be a success story. Detroit will probably never again see 1.8 million people in its 139 sq. mi. boundaries. Demographics are just too different today. In 1950, it wasn't uncommon to see a house with mom, dad, and eight kids. Today, it's almost unheard of. Detroit can easily be a healthy city even if it never again seems more than 750,000 people.

[CNB30]

I think Detroit's population will bottom out at no lower than 500,000. In 20 years, If redevelopment, and gentrification, are successful, I could even see population growth.

[Oaronuviss]

Those empty neighborhoods are going to be turned into all sorts of great things. Mostly regrowth of forests, parks, farms, etc...
I am excited for Detroit's future. It's one of the toughest cities to ever stand on American soil. It isn't going ANYWHERE.