China's Economy - News and Projects III

[VECTROTALENZIS]

Alex is correct. The more developed provinces with higher GDP grows at lower rate than before. But it is still fast. 1percent of 1000 is 10 while 10 percent of 100 is also 10.

[z0rg]

Past GDP revisions proved that in the end, provice counting reflects reality better. Final GDP growth rates are up to 2-3 points higher than preliminary growth rates.

[skyridgeline]

Originally Posted by teddybear

That is my question, how come only a couple of provinces with growth below than average? Either the average is higher or the data is wrong.

The missing ones are:

Inner Mongolia
Heilongjiang
Xinjiang
Tibet

Originally Posted by big-dog

double counting (or over-counting) I guess. My question is based on what the national GDP growth is calculated.

"GDP deflator" taken into account?

Originally Posted by AlexS2000

Another possibility what is the weight of each province GDP on the overall GDP of a nation. Province with smaller GDP might grow faster than province with much bigger GDP.

My rough calculations gave me ~ 9.5% ( excluding the missing ones)

Originally Posted by VECTROTALENZIS

Alex is correct. The more developed provinces with higher GDP grows at lower rate than before. But it is still fast. 1percent of 1000 is 10 while 10 percent of 100 is also 10.

Originally Posted by z0rg

Past GDP revisions proved that in the end, provice counting reflects reality better. Final GDP growth rates are up to 2-3 points higher than preliminary growth rates.

Many adjustments ... a big one is the GDP deflator.


The reallly interesting observation is the missing provinces/regions. Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Xinjiang combined accounts for ~7% of China's GDP.

I think the mass shutdown of inefficient resource (coals, rare earth elements, etc) extractions are having a big impact on the GDP number. And if I remembered correctly, Beijing made it known that their policy is to compensate for loss income but not local GDP.

[z0rg]

Those missing provinces you quoted are among the fastest growing normally.

[Haoting]

China's economy to overtake US in next four years, says OECD

China's economy will be biggest in world by end of 2016, says leading international thinktank

Josephine Moulds
guardian.co.uk, Friday 9 November 2012


The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said China's economy will be larger than the combined economies of the eurozone countries by the end of this year, and will overtake the US by the end of 2016.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...our-years-oecd

[andyvia]

They still used the 2005 ICS prices to adjust GDP PPP numbers but everyone knows that China's prices were overestimated as they picked prices of big cities and surrounding areas only. China has possibly been already on par with the US if not overtaken yet.

[big-dog]

China's Oct exports rise 11.6%, imports up 2.4%
Updated: 2012-11-10 10:53
( Xinhua)

BEIJING -- China's trade surplus widened in October as growth of exports accelerated while that of imports remaining steady, data from the country's customs showed Saturday.

China's exports rose 11.6 percent from one year earlier in October, beating market expectations for a rise of 9 percent and stronger than the 9.9-percent increase registered in September, according to the General Administration of Customs.



Imports climbed 2.4 percent year-on-year last month, unchanged from the growth in September.

This resulted in a widening trade surplus of $31.99 billion in October, compared with $27.67 billion in September and $26.66 billion in August.

In the first ten months, the country's foreign trade volume expanded 6.3 percent from the same period of last year, the administration said.

China targets 10 percent growth in total foreign trade this year, a figure which officials concede is going to be hard to achieve.

Minister of Commerce Chen Deming on Saturday warned of lingering pressure on the country's foreign trade from weak global demand, rising domestic costs and growing trade protectionism.

China's trade volume with the European Union, the nation's largest trade partner, fell 3 percent to $452.83 billion in the first ten months while that with the United States, the second-largest trade partner, climbed 9.1 percent to $396.09 billion.

Trade with Japan declined 2.1 percent from one year earlier to $275.47 billion during the January-October period.

[big-dog]

Love to see these figures

China's inflation rises 1.7% in Oct


China's new yuan lending drops in October


Oct exports rise 11.6%, imports up 2.4%


China's Oct PPI drops 2.8%


Fixed-asset investment up 20.7%


Retail sales up 14.1% in first ten months


China's Oct industrial output rises 9.6%


Chinese manufacturing picks up in Oct

Chinadaily.com

[7freedom7]

China's factories show accelerated growth

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- China's manufacturing industry showed further signs of improvement in November, according to a key early indicator.

HSBC said its initial Chinese purchasing managers' index, or PMI, rose to a 13-month high of 50.4 in November from 49.5 last month. The reading ticked above the benchmark of 50, meaning that manufacturing is now in a state of accelerated expansion. The bank's final reading for the month will be released Dec. 1.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/21/news...html?hpt=hp_t3

[Gaeus]

This Wall Street Journal site is a great tracker for the Economy of China.

http://graphics.wsj.com/documents/EC....php#ind=loans

[7freedom7]

China overtaking U.S. as global trader

http://www.japantoday.com/category/w...-global-trader

[big-dog]

Brookings Global MetroMonitor

The World's Fastest-Growing and Fastest-Shrinking Cities in 2012

By Derek Thompson

TweetinShare.11Nov 30 2012, 1:09 PM ET8

Anybody see a trend?



GRAPH: 19 of the 20 fastest-growing cities in 2012 were in China; 19 of the 20 slowest-growing cities were in Europe


If you want to see what economists are talking about when they talk about a "two-speed" world, just look at this graph above, from today's Brookings Global MetroMonitor, which ranks the world's 300 biggest cities by GDP and job growth.


The top 50 fastest-growing cities, by GDP per capita, are practically all in the developing Asian world. The top 18 are in China. The rest are in China, Indonesia (Jakarta), India (Chennai), and Australia (Perth).


Of the world's fastest-shrinking cities, 42 of the bottom 50 were in the EU. The others included Dubai, Adelaide, Australia, and Albuquerque.

Entering next year, both the fastest growing and fastest shrinking cities in the world are in countries with big question marks. China's iffy transition from investment economy to consumption economy has some worried about the regions growth and the global commodity boom that supports resource-rich economies like Australia and Peru. Meanwhile, Europe has managed to prevent a depression by enforcing a managed recession on the entire EU. There is no expectation that Europe will grow more than 0.0% in 2013; meanwhile India's growth has returned to its 2007 lows.

But, as the graph at the top suggests, world markets rely on world-leading Chinese growth, and a clear deceleration in its economy -- even if it turns out to be good for wages, workers, and the China's necessary evolution into a modern consumer economy -- would result in hundreds of slower-growing cities around the world in 2013.


To play you out, here are the top ten/bottom ten cities, according to Brookings (every metro in the top chart is in China) ...





source

[Gaeus]

December 10, 2012
U.S. Study Sees China as No. 1 Economy by 2030

U.S. Forecast as No. 2 Economy but Energy Independent



By THOM SHANKER

WASHINGTON — A new intelligence assessment of global trends projects that China will outstrip the United States as the leading economic power before 2030, but that America will remain an indispensable world leader, bolstered in part by an era of energy independence.

Russia’s clout will wane, as will the economic strength of other countries reliant on oil for revenues, the assessment says.

The product of four years of intelligence-gathering and analysis, the study, by the National Intelligence Council, presents grounds for optimism and pessimism in nearly equal measure. The council reports to the director of national intelligence and has responsibilities for long-term strategic analysis.

One remarkable development it anticipates is a spreading affluence that leads to a larger global middle class that is better educated and has wider access to health care and new communications technologies like the Internet and smartphones. The report assesses global trends to 2030.

“The growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift,” the study states, saying that billions of people will gain new individual power as they climb out of poverty. “For the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world.”

At the same time, it warns, half of the world’s population probably will be living in areas that suffer severe shortages of fresh water, meaning that management of natural resources will be a key component of global national security efforts.

But these developments also bring significant risks, allowing radicalized groups to enter world politics on a scale even more violent than current terrorist organizations by adopting “lethal and disruptive technologies,” including biological weapons and cyberweapons.

The study warns of the risk that terrorists could mount a computer-network attack in which the casualties would be measured not by the hundreds or thousands killed but by the millions severely affected by damaged infrastructure, like electrical grids’ being taken down.

“There will not be any hegemonic power,” the 166-page report states. “Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.”

It warns that at least 15 countries are “at high risk of state failure” by 2030, among them Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also Somalia, Burundi, Rwanda, Yemen and Uganda.

The study acknowledges that the future “is malleable,” and lists important “game-changers” that will most influence the global scene to 2030: a crisis-prone world economy, shortcomings in governance, conflicts within states and between them, the impact of new technologies and whether the United States can “work with new partners to reinvent the international system.”

The best-case situation for global security to 2030, according to the study, would be a growing political partnership between the United States and China. But it could take a crisis to bring Washington and Beijing together — something like a nuclear standoff between India and Pakistan resolved only by bold cooperation between the United States and China.

The worst-case situation envisions a stalling of economic globalization that would preclude any advancement of financial well-being around the world. That would be a likely outcome following an outbreak of a health pandemic that, even if short-lived, would result in closed borders and economic isolationism.

The chief author and manager of the project, Mathew Burrows, who is counselor for the National Intelligence Council, said the findings had been presented in advance in more than 20 nations to groups of academic experts, business leaders and government officials, including local intelligence officers.

In an interview, Mr. Burrows noted that the audiences in China were far more accepting of the American intelligence assessments — both those predicting China’s economic ascendancy and those warning of political dangers if there was no reform of governance in Beijing — than were audiences in Russia.

To assess the validity of this study, the research and analysis team graded their past work on global trends, an effort undertaken every four years since 1996. Past studies, they found, had underestimated the speed with which changes arrived on the global scene.

About 50 countries around the world will be at risk of internal conflict or wars with neighbors, the study says, most sparked by increasing nationalism and border rivalries fought out in the absence of any regional security architecture to resolve them.

The risk of conflict within a state — like a civil war or an insurgency — is expected to decline in Latin America, but will remain high in sub-Saharan Africa, in parts of the Middle East and South Asia, as well as in some Asia-Pacific island hot spots, the study warns.

“A more fragmented international system increases the risks” of conflict between states, the study also cautions. “Additionally, increased resource competition, spread of lethal technologies and spillover from regional conflicts increase the potential for interstate conflicts.”

Most worrisome — and already part of the global security dynamic — is an assessment that future wars in Asia and the Middle East could include nuclear weapons.

Other important demographic trends will be aging populations in Europe, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, which could slow their economies further. The report warns that Russia’s economy will join these nations in their “slow relative declines.” The United States will benefit from its domestic oil and natural gas supplies and new technologies to tap them, allowing the nation to become energy independent and even a net exporter of fuel.

“China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030,” the report states.

In general, it found, “the health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to how well the developing world does — more so than the traditional West.”

In addition to China, the developing nations that “will become especially important to the global economy” include India, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey.

[big-dog]

x-posting

China's economy to pick up in 2013: report

Updated: 2012-12-13 04:24
( Xinhua)

BEIJING - China's economy is likely to grow by 7.7 percent this year and accelerate to around 8.5 percent in 2013 partly due to the nation's pro-growth policies, according to a report released Wednesday.

The country's economy will continue to be affected by many negative factors in the near future, including the faltering recovery of the global economy, strict property curbs and excessive production capacity, the National Academy of Economic Strategy under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said in the report.


Huanghua Port in Cangzhou, North China's Hebei province. [Photo by Zou Hong / China Daily]


China's gross domestic product will grow by about 7.7 percent in 2012, the report forecast.

The economy will gain steam and expand by around 8.5 percent next year due to favorable factors such as the effects of China's pro-growth policies and recovering external demand, the report said.

To buoy the slowing economy, the government has rolled out an array of measures this year, including two cuts to benchmark interest rates, the easing of banks' reserve requirements and the approval of infrastructure projects worth more than 1 trillion yuan (158.7 billion U.S.dollars).

China's economy expanded 7.4 percent year on year in the third quarter, slowing from 7.6 percent in the second quarter and 8.1 percent in the first, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The country has lowered its growth target for 2012 to 7.5 percent amid sluggish demand and global economic woes.

[big-dog]

Wal-Mart is crazy.

Wal-Mart planning 100 new Chinese stores

Updated: 2012-12-14 10:32
( Xinhua)


A Walmart store in Huaibei, Anhui province. [Photo provided to China Daily]


GUIYANG - US retail giant Wal-Mart Stores, Inc plans to open more than 100 new stores in China over the next three years, a senior executive said on Thursday.

Raymond Bracy, Wal-Mart China's senior vice president of corporate affairs, said the new stores will create about 18,000 jobs and the company also plans more logistics facilities and Sam's Club stores -- a kind of warehouse shopping club with a membership system.

Speaking at the opening of a fourth store in Guiyang, capital city of southwest China's Guizhou province, Bracy said Wal-Mart is very optimistic about the growth of the Chinese market, especially in the west of the country.

Though China's western provinces remain relatively poor compared to coastal provinces in the east, the growth of the market in the western region over the past few years has been robust. Bracy pointed to an expanding middle class being encouraging for Wal-Mart.

He also noted that Wal-Mart would push for development of e-commerce, the retail giant's purchase of a majority stake in Chinese e-commerce company Yihaodian having been approved by regulators in August.

Since its entry into China in 1996, Wal-Mart has opened 384 stores in 147 cities and partnered with nearly 20,000 local suppliers.

[big-dog]

Jusco to expand in China with new business model
Updated: 2013-01-04 16:10
By LI WOKE ( chinadaily.com.cn)

Department store operator Jusco, which stands for Japan United Stores Company, plans to accelerate its expansion in the Chinese market with a new business model in Guangzhou.
Jusco said it will open a small-sized supermarket called Maxvalu in Guangzhou later this month.

Jusco, a subsidiary of Japanese retail giant Aeon Co Ltd, entered China in 1996 and currently has 100 stores in the country.

Last month, convenience store operator 7-Eleven reportedly closed about 20 outlets in Guangzhou, while Family Mart was also reported to have shut around 20 outlets in the city.

[big-dog]

Chinese M&As surge 37% in 2012

Updated: 2013-01-06 17:21
( Xinhua)

BEIJING -- Mergers and acquisitions by Chinese enterprises surged 37 percent year on year in 2012 in terms of their disclosed transaction value, according a report issued by a research and consulting institute.

The total value of disclosed M&A transactions involving Chinese firms amounted to $307.79 billion in 2012, up 37 percent year-on-year, according to data released Sunday by ChinaVenture.

The amount is the greatest recorded since 2007, with the total transaction value nearly tripling since then, the report said.

However, the total number of M&As was down last year, with a total of 3,555 transactions announced, down 23 percent from 2011, the report said.

The total value of completed transactions also shrank by 17 percent year on year to stand at $127.45 billion, the report said.

ChinaVenture analyst Fiona Wan said last year's M&As were marked by single transactions that involved large corporations and huge sums, resulting in fewer cases but a larger total scale.

Among the 2,458 closed M&As, a total of 230 were cross-border deals, generating a transaction volume of $36.63 billion, the report said.

Affected by the lackluster global economy, many overseas assets tended to be undervalued and Chinese investors were more willing to engage in mergers, Wan said.

The energy and mining sectors accounted for most of last year's M&A activity, topping other industries with a total transaction scale of $33.52 billion, according to the report.

A notable case was the China National Offshore Oil Corporation's bid to buy the Canada-based Nexen Inc for $15.1 billion, a deal that will be China's biggest overseas acquisition ever once completed.

In terms of the number of transactions completed, the manufacturing sector ranked first with 450 M&A deals closed in 2012, followed by the energy, mining and financial sectors, the report said.

The entertainment, cultural and Internet sectors also closed some major deals, including a $7.1 billion share repurchase by the Alibaba Group, a Chinese e-commerce platform provider, and Dalian Wanda Group Co's purchase of US cinema chain AMC Entertainment Inc.

[hakz2007]

Chinese stocks close mixed, financial shares lower

BEIJING, Jan. 8 — Chinese stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, dragged down by shares of banks and insurance companies.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.41 percent, or 9.29 points, to end at 2,276.07. The Shenzhen Component Index added 0.02 percent, or 1.98 points, to 9,110.45.

Combined turnover on the two bourses rose to 213.8 billion yuan (33.94 billion U.S. dollars) from 185.67 billion yuan the previous trading day.

Read more

[big-dog]

China's foreign trade grew 6.2% in 2012

Updated: 2013-01-10 10:31
By Li Jiabao ( chinadaily.com.cn)

China's foreign trade in 2012 expanded 6.2 percent year-on-year to $3.867 trillion.

Exports throughout 2012 rose by 7.9 percent year-on-year while imports increased by 4.3 percent, yielding a trade surplus of $231.1 billion, up 48 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs announced Thursday.

December saw China's exports surge 14.1 percent from the previous year.

[big-dog]

Domestic carriers expect gains from spring rush

Updated: 2013-01-17 20:43
By WANG YING ( chinadaily.com.cn)

China's airlines generated a total of 21.1 billion yuan ($3.4 billion) profit in 2012, a drop of 22.7 percent year-on-year, according to the latest data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

After posting a combined loss of 570 million yuan in November, domestic airlines lost another 120 million yuan in December due to seasonal low demand and falling ticket prices, reported Shanghai-based newspaper China Business News citing a source from the CAAC on Jan 17.

"In 2012, there was a 12 percent growth in domestic flight capacity, but sluggish demand in the aviation market led to a declining passenger seat kilometer utilization and softening ticket prices particularly in low seasons," said Sun Chao, an analyst from Ping'an Securities Co Ltd.

The coming Lunar New Year is expected to fetch more gains for airlines as tens of millions of passengers will choose flights as the top choice for going home or traveling during the most important festival in China.

Ma Xulun, president of China Eastern Airlines Co Ltd, expected an eight percent growth in passenger volume during the Lunar New Year holiday, while Guangzhou-based China Southern Airlines Co Ltd predicted it would transport 6.9 percent more passengers from a year ago, or 200,000 passengers per day.