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Old December 8th, 2012, 02:40 AM   #4981
nicky2tu
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LNGCats
We will see.

It's four years now the banks have not been willing to lend.

When are you expecting banks to start lending in the same manner they used to? To fund such developments?

Oh and my logic is we know bugger all on most of the discussions on here. Very few of us are experts in any of the areas we discuss, whilst many pretend to be an expert.
The banks will lend when it is profitable for them to do so. They are capitalists - albeit bad ones - after all. When that will be who knows or cares.

You don't really like skyscrapers Cats which is why you have such fun on here I suppose. But there are at least 2 100m buildings going up / built since 2008 - so it can be done. People like you always extrapolate from the here without understanding inflection points and how things can quickly can change. For example there has been a series of reports this week on the BBC World News on skyscrapers. Check it out here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-20578262

The reports discuss a lot of the stuff we discuss on here much of it relevant to this thread. Now one such claim being made is the ability to build the world tallest building in less than three months. Yes you read that correctly. Some game changer if its true and would make financial modelling of such schemes a whole lot easier to execute one would imagine.

It used to be thought during the early twentieth century by people like the Webbs and so on that the local state, and later on by people such as Wilson and even Heath that local or national progress of infrastructure could be developed through a managerial technocratic hierarchy. Just about nobody believes this anymore apart from you. Take some time out Cats and learn why it failed. You will soon realise that it is always necessary to call the so called experts to account.
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Old December 8th, 2012, 03:30 AM   #4982
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nicky2tu View Post
The banks will lend when it is profitable for them to do so. They are capitalists - albeit bad ones - after all. When that will be who knows or cares.

You don't really like skyscrapers Cats which is why you have such fun on here I suppose. But there are at least 2 100m buildings going up / built since 2008 - so it can be done. People like you always extrapolate from the here without understanding inflection points and how things can quickly can change. For example there has been a series of reports this week on the BBC World News on skyscrapers. Check it out here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-20578262

The reports discuss a lot of the stuff we discuss on here much of it relevant to this thread. Now one such claim being made is the ability to build the world tallest building in less than three months. Yes you read that correctly. Some game changer if its true and would make financial modelling of such schemes a whole lot easier to execute one would imagine.

It used to be thought during the early twentieth century by people like the Webbs and so on that the local state, and later on by people such as Wilson and even Heath that local or national progress of infrastructure could be developed through a managerial technocratic hierarchy. Just about nobody believes this anymore apart from you. Take some time out Cats and learn why it failed. You will soon realise that it is always necessary to call the so called experts to account.
If you're are referring to the new skyscrapers in Asia (China particularly) then the banks are not the ones who lend. They are built from the money Asia has built from the exports we now buy - essentially they are now the creditors. The point about building skyscrapers in months rather than years is flawed. Two words: cheap labour.
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Old December 8th, 2012, 10:33 AM   #4983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nicky2tu View Post

The banks will lend when it is profitable for them to do so. They are capitalists - albeit bad ones - after all. When that will be who knows or cares.

You don't really like skyscrapers Cats which is why you have such fun on here I suppose. But there are at least 2 100m buildings going up / built since 2008 - so it can be done. People like you always extrapolate from the here without understanding inflection points and how things can quickly can change. For example there has been a series of reports this week on the BBC World News on skyscrapers. Check it out here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-20578262

The reports discuss a lot of the stuff we discuss on here much of it relevant to this thread. Now one such claim being made is the ability to build the world tallest building in less than three months. Yes you read that correctly. Some game changer if its true and would make financial modelling of such schemes a whole lot easier to execute one would imagine.

It used to be thought during the early twentieth century by people like the Webbs and so on that the local state, and later on by people such as Wilson and even Heath that local or national progress of infrastructure could be developed through a managerial technocratic hierarchy. Just about nobody believes this anymore apart from you. Take some time out Cats and learn why it failed. You will soon realise that it is always necessary to call the so called experts to account.
Yes and my position is skyscrapers won't be profitable in the cities like Manchester for ages and the risks in such a development far too high for a bank.

How long with it take for the negative equity, the toxic debt, to work its way through the system fit all those city centre apartments?

Just like it took 40 years to get from the CIS to Beetham in my opinion it could take a similar length of time for the toxic debt to work its easy through and for the banks to regain confidence in such developments.

What is the current loan to income multiple retired fit a mortgage on a city centre flat theses days, with what deposit? In my opinion the customers for such a development are going to struggle to get the money in the same way as before the crash, hence making the building of such developments far too risky.

Ask yourself why so fee such developments happened when debt was being given away with no risk analysis? Why will the debt Niue be made available when the bands are so risk adverse?
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Old December 8th, 2012, 11:36 AM   #4984
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LNGCats

Yes and my position is skyscrapers won't be profitable in the cities like Manchester for ages and the risks in such a development far too high for a bank.

How long with it take for the negative equity, the toxic debt, to work its way through the system fit all those city centre apartments?

Just like it took 40 years to get from the CIS to Beetham in my opinion it could take a similar length of time for the toxic debt to work its easy through and for the banks to regain confidence in such developments.

What is the current loan to income multiple retired fit a mortgage on a city centre flat theses days, with what deposit? In my opinion the customers for such a development are going to struggle to get the money in the same way as before the crash, hence making the building of such developments far too risky.

Ask yourself why so fee such developments happened when debt was being given away with no risk analysis? Why will the debt Niue be made available when the bands are so risk adverse?
What toxic debt? Figures please? Stop recycling your Radio 5 commonplaces for proper analysis. Start with facts or just shut up.

There was not an oversupply new build in Manchester, far from it, mostly the demand was driven by real need - no so in Spain and Ireland where banks over lent and went bust causing their governments to absorb the debt creating a sovereign debt issue and Euro crises. Stop confusing these two separate issues.

Manchester building stopped because the money dried up due to the losses in the world banking system not because of anything structurally inherent in the Manchester economy. There was a surplus of cash sloshing around the world up to 2007 due to the gross trade imbalances with China. That surplus cash has been squandered by the banks and is no more. This affects us here in Manchester badly. That is my analysis vs your simple minded one size fits all argument that it was due to a local over supply problem. My view states that banks made good profits out of the Manchester building boom overall.

Now CIS: when this was built it was the latest building in Europe. Soon after the fashion changed and high rises were out not to come back in vogue until relatively recently. So again your analysis is flawed moreover you confidently forget that we have just built a similar sized building with another one in planning. So much for you analysis: it is literally blinkered I.e. raise your gaze from street level and you might have noticed something.

The risk associated with lending is not so much on the ability to repay the mortgage but on value of the property vs the loan. Provided the former is greater then the loan is sound. What underpins risk here is that assessment of residual property values. Currently these are uncertain or are still declining which makes loans like these more risky especially given the paucity of available funds to lend. Once property values start rising - which they will - expect the bandwagon to start rolling again. This is capitalism this is how it works.
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Old December 8th, 2012, 11:51 AM   #4985
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The toxic debt that is in the mortgages of higher value than the value of the apartments right across the city centre.

There are loans all over the place in the city centre to people who are now in negative equity - toxic debt.

Look, we are not going to agree. I have been saying the same thing for a couple of years now, ever since 2008 people have been telling me I am wrong, how things have not changed.

Ever since 2008 I have been right, people like yourself are never able to tell us when you think we will go back to those days - I maintain they won't, the last decade was the abnormality, not now.

I'll come back next year, then the year after and remind you of this discussion, as just like all those who have been telling me I am wrong about this for 4 years, I strongly suspect you'll still be waiting for a return to another property bubble.

Anyway, will leave it to you to reply to this and have the final word, I am not getting into a long debate over something so trivial - it doesn't matter.


EDIT - the BBC report showing that city centre flats were the worst hit at the start of the crisis http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7661303.stm as a consequence it is these properties that the banks have a greater level of toxic loans in relation to.

All I am saying is in a new banking world, with banks far much more risk adverse than when these loans were being handed out, is not going to go anywhere near them compared to previously.

I'd still love to know what the maximum loan / value ratio was in 2007 and what deposit was required for a city centre flat, then have the comparison for today - showing how much harder it is to get a property in the city centre, hence fewer customers, hence more risky for a developer - hence more risk to a risk adverse bank.

Last edited by LNGCats; December 8th, 2012 at 12:03 PM.
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Old December 8th, 2012, 02:32 PM   #4986
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LNGCats
The toxic debt that is in the mortgages of higher value than the value of the apartments right across the city centre.

There are loans all over the place in the city centre to people who are now in negative equity - toxic debt.

Look, we are not going to agree. I have been saying the same thing for a couple of years now, ever since 2008 people have been telling me I am wrong, how things have not changed.

Ever since 2008 I have been right, people like yourself are never able to tell us when you think we will go back to those days - I maintain they won't, the last decade was the abnormality, not now.

I'll come back next year, then the year after and remind you of this discussion, as just like all those who have been telling me I am wrong about this for 4 years, I strongly suspect you'll still be waiting for a return to another property bubble.

Anyway, will leave it to you to reply to this and have the final word, I am not getting into a long debate over something so trivial - it doesn't matter.

EDIT - the BBC report showing that city centre flats were the worst hit at the start of the crisis http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7661303.stm as a consequence it is these properties that the banks have a greater level of toxic loans in relation to.

All I am saying is in a new banking world, with banks far much more risk adverse than when these loans were being handed out, is not going to go anywhere near them compared to previously.

I'd still love to know what the maximum loan / value ratio was in 2007 and what deposit was required for a city centre flat, then have the comparison for today - showing how much harder it is to get a property in the city centre, hence fewer customers, hence more risky for a developer - hence more risk to a risk adverse bank.
Toxic debt is not negative equity. They are two totally different things. The former is an asset that unlikely to be repaid in full or substantial part and represents downside on the lender. The latter is where the value of the borrowers asset's market value is less than the loan outstanding and is downside on the borrower. You can be in negative equity but provided you are meeting the agreed payment schedule the loan is not toxic. Pretty simple definitions there Cats. Blimey.

Cats you have been saying nothing over the last 4 years that is new. It is the conclusions you draw that are wrong headed and fail to grasp the essential characteristics of the situation. These are NOT normal times; it is because of the banks that the present property market is in such a slump; when property prices undergo a persistent recovery then confidence in lending will return together with sensible loan to risk ratios. When that will be I don't know but it will happen. This is capitalism and this is how it works just check the economic history books before putting your simple minded analysis on line and do us all a favour.
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Old December 9th, 2012, 03:40 AM   #4987
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I think it's time everyone put LNG on ignore. Then he can spend the rest of his days on a slow train commuting to London bitching and complaining and posting to himself.

It would just be a matter of time before he put himself on ignore.
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Old December 9th, 2012, 12:48 PM   #4988
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I think it's time everyone put LNG on ignore. Then he can spend the rest of his days on a slow train commuting to London bitching and complaining and posting to himself.

It would just be a matter of time before he put himself on ignore.
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Old December 9th, 2012, 01:53 PM   #4989
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Is there a thread he hasn't yet turned into a conversation about the banking crisis?
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Old December 9th, 2012, 02:30 PM   #4990
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Is there a thread he hasn't yet turned into a conversation about the banking crisis?
He's just obsessed with making sure the world has no hope.
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Old December 9th, 2012, 02:51 PM   #4991
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this thread has become like the bishopsgate tower thread in london. i.e. going nowhere and frustrating
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Old December 9th, 2012, 04:01 PM   #4992
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To be fair, you can't discuss schemes like this without reference to the banking crisis. Unlike Kurt, I don't believe that the credit crunch has prevented a resurgence of tall buildings in Manchester for evermore; but while our banks are risk averse and our economy flat he is right in saying that nothing like the Piccadilly tower is going to begin construction.

We should also be cautious about wishing for more schemes like this anyway. As much as we may like tall buildings, they are symptomatic of irrational exuberance in the financial markets, and even in good times should be feted cautiously.

It is far more important that Manchester develop a robust and varied economy to support its continued economic and physical regeneration and begin its social renewal than it is that we throw up 50 storey buildings.
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Old December 9th, 2012, 04:28 PM   #4993
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Yep, tall buildings like this would just saturate the market.

Rather than one big tower, I'd prefer to see lots of midrise office blocks/hotels and residentials. Lets make the city and the surrounding brownfield land look attractive as a place to live and then build upwards when there's a demand surge.

We'll get the tall buildings before long, but not yet Growth is on the way though!
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Old December 9th, 2012, 04:46 PM   #4994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cherguevara
To be fair, you can't discuss schemes like this without reference to the banking crisis. Unlike Kurt, I don't believe that the credit crunch has prevented a resurgence of tall buildings in Manchester for evermore; but while our banks are risk averse and our economy flat he is right in saying that nothing like the Piccadilly tower is going to begin construction.

We should also be cautious about wishing for more schemes like this anyway. As much as we may like tall buildings, they are symptomatic of irrational exuberance in the financial markets, and even in good times should be feted cautiously.

It is far more important that Manchester develop a robust and varied economy to support its continued economic and physical regeneration and begin its social renewal than it is that we throw up 50 storey buildings.
Absolutely Che. Well said. Tall buildings can play a big role in sustainable development but they can also throw up as many challenges as they solve. Careful consideration of each scheme is required for sure.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 03:18 PM   #4995
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LNG Cats is right. Only one skyscraper was built in the UK outside London in all of the UK's history. What chance another, anywhere soon?

Bah.
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Old January 28th, 2013, 01:52 PM   #4996
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Apologies for the thread bump!

But with the plans for HS2 finally revealed, this site is set to be absolutely prime for high quality, high density development.

Is the planning permission for the tower still in the extension period, as a high end hotel operator could surely still take half the tower at least, or has time finally elapsed on the 188m of shimmering glass?

Or do you reckon we could even see something more spectacular?
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Old January 28th, 2013, 03:07 PM   #4997
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If you assume the landowner is 40+ then he has no interest in this plot with regard to HS2, because he will be long dead before any personal gain?
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Old January 28th, 2013, 03:16 PM   #4998
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If you assume the landowner is 40+ then he has no interest in this plot with regard to HS2, because he will be long dead before any personal gain?
The land owner is the Irish Government
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Old January 28th, 2013, 03:27 PM   #4999
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Apologies for the thread bump!

But with the plans for HS2 finally revealed, this site is set to be absolutely prime for high quality, high density development.

Is the planning permission for the tower still in the extension period, as a high end hotel operator could surely still take half the tower at least, or has time finally elapsed on the 188m of shimmering glass?

Or do you reckon we could even see something more spectacular?
He sits, sipping a cherished Chablis on the 60th floor of Piccadilly Tower, gazing through his large window at an immense tunnel-boring machine, as it ascends through the dirt of Ardwick, pointing majestically toward him............
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Old January 28th, 2013, 03:38 PM   #5000
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The land owner is the Irish Government
Well, where are we in the list of reclaimed property portfolios worth developing?


lol
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