2014 Pinellas Transit Referendum

[I-275westcoastfl]

Originally Posted by Jasonhouse

Given the county's existing pattern of development, land use regulations, stagnated growth and political environment, doing anything beyond a major upgrade to the bus system at this point is a complete waste of limited resources. (and I don't even think voters will support funding that)

Pinellas residents would have to make the conscious choice to fundamentally alter the way they live away from cars to a mix of transport options, then they would have to increase their own taxes to pay for that change, then they would have to sit around for 10-20 years waiting for infrastructure they just invested in to be developed, and for neighborhoods to be rebuilt from the ground up around it.

Seriously, does any sane person believe that it is not only plausible that Pinellas voters would do this, but is likely? Really???

Not going beyond the bus system would be a complete waste.. Not doing anything would be idiotic too. Pinellas has and will continue to become denser and grow, how fast is depending on how well the county does planning. Even the most urban parts of the county lack good transit. A light rail line at the right spots would be great, even better as in other cities people would want to live and have businesses near the line, so development would occur! Obviously there is a push for rail and rail is more appealing than a bus, so I think its realistic that Pinellas should have rail, maybe eventually part of a commuter rail system. Also yes they would have to wait, it is an INVESTMENT that would not happen overnight!

I do agree with you however that Pinellas voters have been shown to be idiots and the county was not planned very well. Because of the idiots from 30 years ago we were denied a freeway system which we are now paying for dearly and get a nice clusterfucked road network. Also because of the idiots we don't have rail or a decent mass transit system. I am skeptical of whether voters would approve it because most Pinellas county voters are cheap old people, anti-tax teabaggers, or have a "small beach town" mentality. That is why I am hopeful they will sell the plan the right way and plan it correctly.

Originally Posted by Jasonhouse

Where exactly???


Pinellas' pattern of development is at best suited for a well run, comprehensive bus system. Which the current generation of taxpayers will never knowingly tax themselves to pay for.

How about you tell me what parts aren't? Because I would give you a typical list of notable areas. In my opinion it could work just about anywhere South of Dunedin minus maybe Seminole, Pinellas Park and Largo. Don't you support light rail in Tampa? Pinellas is better suited for rail then Tampa, it is densely built with its key areas which the proposed route would go to. So I am lost in your logic why Pinellas isn't suited for rail?

[Jasonhouse]

I support rail in Tampa, though Tampa has a bit of the same issue with there being few places that are actually worth connecting with rail stations, until the connected neighborhoods are dense, urban and walkable. And by 'walkable' I don't mean textbook walkable, I'm talking about walkable for our climate and culture. That's a higher hurdle than most realize. People here are willing to travel far less distance on foot here, than people are who live in more favorable built environments located in more favorable climates.

Compared to Pinellas, at least Tampa/Hillsborough has a few significant activity centers in Westshsore, DT and USF that are worth linking with rail transit. It's just that most everything in between is built at suburban densities with terrible pedestrian infrastructure, and would need major densification at every station to make any such system worth doing. And even Westshore and USF are so car centric in their planning, that it will take many years of redevelopment and public investment in pedestrian infrastructure to make travel by such a transit system both cost effective and useful to residents.

In Pinellas, the situation is far worse. The densest areas of the county are of course along the beach, which is so "dense" that its traffic is handled by a 2 lane road, with the occasional bump out to 4 lanes near inland access points. Clearwater Beach is the only place where beefed up transit is worth doing. Some free trolley service at short intervals (link it to DT Clearwater, whose empty weekend parking could be used by beachgoers) would be all that's needed given the current development plan. Then there is DT St Pete, Gateway and... where else is even remotely as dense in Pinellas? Nowhere that I can think of. Tyrone? 4th Street? DT Clearwater? Countryside? "DT" Largo? Tri-City? None of those places are even remotely dense or walkable in a way that makes it worth building a rail network from scratch to link them. And the rest of the county is largely a vast sea of almost perfectly random and uniform development wholly designed with the automobile in mind. Given the county's general grid road network, and almost complete lack of dense activity centers that are worth linking with the kind of capacity that rail provides, and almost complete lack of growth which would indicate that any will be forming any time soon, it's beyond obvious in my opinion that Pinellas is far better suited to have a beefed up bus system, with some BRT on a few corridors. Even planning a rail network at this point in time is retarded in my opinion. Put it in writing that the county is going to redefine itself along key corridors, and then we could begin to think about rail in Pinellas.


And for the love of God, can we please get some regular bus service between Pinellas and Tampa on both I-275 and SR60?

[Jasonhouse]

Oh and Pinellas is somewhat "dense" from the perspective of demographers and marketers, but certainly isn't considered so from the perspective of mass transit planners.

[Jahi98]

Since rail would mostly serve St. Pete, Largo and Clearwater, the 3 largest municipalities and the 3 most amenable to urban redevelopment, I think it will be fine. The key will be the road/transit projects to benefit north county residents commuting to jobs in Gateway/Central Pinellas, St. Pete and Tampa. That is why I think the focus should be on a few big projects (118th, US 19) instead of a laundry list of small projects. For transit, express service along key corridors like US 19 North, McMullen-Booth, Ulmerton, Park and Alternate 19, and increased express service to Tampa (from St. Pete and Clearwater), we could get significant support.

[Jasonhouse]

Maybe what they should do is pass the tax swap, and use the increased funds to beef up the buses, and begin to take the steps to urbanize parts of the county where a future rail line wold go, then start building the rail like a decade from now.

Of course, all of this relies on the county's growth trajectory doing something other than stagnate. Which relies on a population that wants it to. I've seen no indications that the majority of Pinellas' residents want the county to grow, and especially not urbanize any more than it already has.

[Jahi98]

I can see that, Jasonhouse. I would say that places like Clearwater, Largo, Dunedin, Tarpon Springs, Safety Harbor, Pinellas Park and Oldsmar are interested in building up their downtown areas into more urban environments on various scales of course. Even Seminole may get in on it with a Seminole Mall redo. Outside of that, most communities want to preserve the low-density character. St. Pete wants an urban downtown and to build up adjacent neighborhoods and select corridors. So certainly a beefed up bus system would help with those efforts while light rail planning continues in earnest. It could take up to 10 years before the first train is rolling. In that time, having a defined rail corridor, appropriate zoning changes and investments can be made in preparation. In the meantime, expanded express bus service and already planned BRT lines (like Central Avenue and McMullen Booth) can be implemented within the first 5 years.

[kmthurman]

Dead on. People forget it takes 7 to 10 years to build the trains, plenty of time to urbanize the sections of Pinellas along the corridors. Its the only way Pinellas isnt going to lose more people between now and 2020

[Jasonhouse]

Right... And then we're stuck back dealing with the well documented fact that Pinellas voters don't want the county to grow. Its population has been largely stagnant for decades, and is projected to be increasingly stagnant in the coming decades.

http://www.pinellascounty.org/Plan/p...rojections.pdf

[Jahi98]

I think density along specific corridors that preserves the otherwise suburban nature of most of Pinellas will be amendable to voters. The elected leaders know that, and I think residents can deal with something like that. Pinellas needs increased density to grow, but it has to be focused in specific areas supported by transit (and residents need to know that it will be focused in those specific areas). Otherwise, the county will continue with stagnant population growth.

[tampasteve]

Originally Posted by Jahi98

I think density along specific corridors that preserves the otherwise suburban nature of most of Pinellas will be amendable to voters. The elected leaders know that, and I think residents can deal with something like that. Pinellas needs increased density to grow, but it has to be focused in specific areas supported by transit (and residents need to know that it will be focused in those specific areas). Otherwise, the county will continue with stagnant population growth.

But you are missing the fact that it would seem that the voters do not want the county to grow. The residents have little to no incentive to vote for a plan that would encourage density. They like the suburban sprawl of the county. This is precisely the problem with the non-city areas of Hills. County too. The problem with Pin. County is that the city population that might vote for it is outnumbered by the county population that will not vote for it....that and an even older demographic of residents than even Hills. has which historically hated transit projects and taxes for them - in spite of the fact that it could drastically help their mobility.

The main difference is that Pinellas is almost built out, so there cannot be more sprawl than there already is. So it is a tough sell to voters to vote for more density, which in their mind means more cars, more people, more hassle.

[Jahi98]

Originally Posted by tampasteve

The main difference is that Pinellas is almost built out, so there cannot be more sprawl than there already is. So it is a tough sell to voters to vote for more density, which in their mind means more cars, more people, more hassle.

I think this is what might be the selling point. While most, particularly north county residents, like the suburban nature, there is a realization that there can be no growth without redevelopment, but it has to be in the right place. Most are supportive of efforts to densify and revitalize the downtown areas of their cities. So people are not totally against density. They just prefer it planned in specific areas.

[Jasonhouse]

Most are supportive of efforts to densify and revitalize the downtown areas of their cities.

Perhaps a majority of current downtown residents support the further densification and build-out of the county's downtowns, but I can assure you that a majority of the county's voters at large absolutely do not support any plan for growth that results in them being taxed for any of it.

Every plan to revitalize DT Clearwater that requires funding has been opposed. DT Dunedin and DT largo would never, ever gain voter approval for the kind of densification that would make transit worth doing. Even DT St Pete can't get its voters on the same page when it comes to basic issues like reconstructing the dilapidated pier, or replacing the aged Police HQ before it crumbles.

A tax increase to pay for mass transit improvements doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of passing in Pinellas County in 2014. (And frankly, I think certain people are poisoning the process by pushing it when it's being pushed, specifically so that it will be shot down... All of this talk about how if the PSTA loses this referendum in 2014, or the agency will crumble is going to become a dog whistle for opponents... They will tell their supporters, "If we turn out and kill this transit vote, then we can begin to kill off the PSTA for good".)

[kmthurman]

All focus groups, polling, and meetings show that your wrong on support for transit funding, I get your concern but I think you are giving opponents too much credit.

Also most transit referendum successes come from the threat of or actual service cuts.

[TampaMike]

This isn't a tax increase to fund mass transit, it's a tax increase to fund transit, which includes roads. And a 1-cent sales tax increase in Pinellas will be less heavy on the wallet of county residents than a 1-cent sales tax increase in Hillsborough would had been with the property tax reduction that would come with the passing of this referendum.

The environment of the voter turnout also will have a factor on the direction of this referendum. If Democrats throw in Crist for the Democratic nominee for governor, there won't be that much an an affect. But if they throw in someone with credibility and substance, I think Democrats will have an upper hand in the 2014 election. Polls today showed that Scott's re-election chances are still horrible and Democrats will only go harder with that kind of information. Even the majority of his party would like to see him challenged in the primary, so expect a bloodbath come 2013 and 2014 within the Republican party itself. Another issue will be that Norm Roche will be up for re-election in 2014. And he was one of the most vocal opponents of the fluoride in drinking water in Pinellas. We saw what happened this past November. He also didn't do himself any good for his comments about St. Petersburg when he was going under a username and slamming the city on the Tampa Bay Times site either. The political environment is much different than it was 2 years ago and will stay the same come 2014 for Pinellas.

[HARTride 2012]

Another thing that seems to be happening is that the Tea Party is starting to slowly crumble. If the trend continues, then we will have a better chance of seeing things like this referendum pass in 2014. HOWEVER, I think this will all hinge on whether the economy is in full rebound by 2014, or if we're in the midst of the next Great Depression.

I realize now that in addition to Hillsborough's plan being so poorly put together, the timing of their referendum made things a lot worse as well.

On the flipside though, the failure of Atlanta's recent referendum also brings me concern knowing that anti-transit groups may try to steal things again and try to project in voters minds that the Pinellas plan is WORSE than Hillsborough's. Even if the Tea Party does crash and burn in the next two years, it doesn't mean that the groups won't try to stop the referendum from passing.

[tampasteve]

Originally Posted by HARTride 2012

anti-transit groups may try to steal things again and try to project in voters minds that the Pinellas plan is WORSE than Hillsborough's.

Make no doubt about it, No Tax For Tracks and other groups will pour time and money into the anti-transit camp.

I would absolutely LOVE to see this pass, but it just seems so unlikely. Pinellas really does not have a cohesive group or main voice for transit advocacy. Hillsborough had and has a few really good advocates and still could not get it done (for many reasons).

[kmthurman]

[Self promotion alert]

The advocacy side of things are changing. This week Connect Tampa Bay launched and got a lot of coverage and we've already gotten 608 members in just two days. I have never seen a more boring issue that has more passion in a community than this in political career.

You can sign up on the website http:://www.ConnectTB.com or visit us on http://www.facebook.com/ConnectTB

The polls have shifted, and the electorate keeps getting less rural and less white.

[TampaMike]

Moving Hillsborough Forward was pretty much the voice of the Hillsborough referendum and they really didn't get going until a year before the referendum. ConnectTB, even though it's a regional transportation advocacy group, can become the voice for the Pinellas referendum and that gives many of the proponents from the group enough time to go through the referendum piece by piece and tell the voters what this would mean and do for them.

While the county comes up with the language and figures out how to spread the potential tax revenue out, I think proponents should be going out and asking residents throughout the county if they would support the referendum and if not, what could possibly change their minds to vote for it. I know some on here will say you can't change their minds, but hit them with facts and they might.

ConnectTB, I think this is your best opportunity of getting your name out there. But you're going to have to go old school on this. Pinellas will have their public meetings, but ConnectTB should be out at anywhere possible handing out fliers on what the referendum will do, what roads will receive direct funding with the passage, the benefits of BRT and light rail, etc. Something they can take him and review. I think the personal connection to it, besides just being told to look at a website for information, can change a few voters.

[kmthurman]

Another poll shows more support for light rail.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politic...t-rail/1267768

60% in Pinellas County support public money for light rail. This poll and others show there is support and assuming the referendum can't pass or they won't support light rail in Hillsborough is just outdated. A lot can change in a couple years.

[Jasonhouse]

^lol... Good luck getting the 2014 voter turnout to even remotely resemble the demographics of the poll's respondents. (read up on the poll's actual data. The poll is all but worthless as polls go)