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#81 | |
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msg
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: lucknow
Posts: 1,510
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The problem with land in India is that most of people involved in agriculture are uneducated and Indian system failed to give then decent education so that the can be employable with decent job.
The fear of unable to find alternative livelihood is perfect setting for political class to exploit the situation and is driving higher price of land. Land in Kushinagar for airport and Maitrey project has been acquired at rs 945 per sqm (demand was rs 1500 per sqm). (almost 95lakhs per hectare) I am not sure how successful the annuity based model is going to be for expressway. YE model is much better as farmers can be given land back in developed areas with some compensation. Quote:
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#82 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Quote:
Another puzzling data: less than 9% of Indian population owns land (holds title to land), according to latest available Agriculture Census reports from India's Ministry of Agriculture. See online databases, here. In Uttar Pradesh, where the proposed A-L expressway will be, the same Ministry of Agriculture, reports about 10.2% of the total state population owns any land, which includes very small farm plots to farms bigger than 20 acres. It feels as if 9%-10% of the land owning population in India is blocking or demanding very high prices from the remaining vast majority? |
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#83 | |
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msg
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: lucknow
Posts: 1,510
Likes (Received): 64
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Akhilesh did his UP election campaign saying that his govt will provide SIX times the market price for land acquired by govt and industry
Rahul tried Mamta in UP along YE and is now working on land bill. HC and SC has problem with emergency clause for land acquisition (housing & industry). Media has no stand on most of issues.... No one in India seems to worry about lower middle and poor class. Each one of us want best police, teacher, cook, servants, auto/bus drivers. where and how & under what conditions these people are going to stay? Quote:
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#84 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Quote:
Here is another interesting data: assume Uttar Pradesh decided to build a web grid of 6 lane expressways, running North-South and East-West, each expressway separated by the other by 50 kilometers. Now, let us calculate how much land would this grid need. Assume each lane is 3.5 meter wide for proposed 6 lane expressway, generous median, shoulder, service roads with trees/plants; this would need a 50 to 60 meter strip. If you do the math, the state will need to acquire and dedicate about 0.1% of its total farming land to build out such a grid of modern parallel highways infrastructure. 99.9% of the land can remain as farmland and the associated rural population can continue their life. So, expressway projects do not affect vast majority of farmers and their families - regardless of whether they are fully literate, partially or illiterate. This is true for all of India and elsewhere. The amount of land used to create and maintain a quality network of highways, airports, ports and such infrastructure is often a tiny fraction of total cultivable area of any major nation, even 1/10th the size of India. |
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#85 |
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My Way The Highway
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: India
Posts: 781
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I think this network of highways in up should be upgraded to 4 laned highways and expressways( a part of it is already completed). Then the state will have a world class road infrastructure.
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#86 |
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Join Date: Dec 2011
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tall_dreams,
That grid, or something equivalent interconnecting major cities of Uttar Pradesh, would be a good start. In 10 to 20 years, the state will need a much denser network of expressways and highways, for its per capita annual income average to cross US$10,000. For Indian states such as Uttar Pradesh, with population between 75 to 200 million, a great benchmark to study and learn from can be Japan. About 50 to 55 years ago, potholed narrow poor quality roads were common place in Japan. Bicycles and cattle carts common in rural areas. After rains, cars would get stuck in mud, and Japanese people would help each other to get these vehicles back on road. Read some interesting historical notes, here and here. In 25 years, with dedicated political leadership and support, the country made rapid progress in building out road infrastructure. Today, on a land area effectively similar to Uttar Pradesh (I am taking out very small islands, too small for expressways), Japan has about 8000 kilometers of access controlled tolled expressways (called kosokudoro), 54000 kilometers of national highways (these are called Ippan Kokudo, or national routes in Japan), and over 125000 kilometers of rural/municipal roads (these are 1 or 2 lane roads). In 1970s through 1980s, dozens of expressways and highways were being built out simultaneously by private contractors / consortiums, employing Japanese people. Therefore, to achieve world class infrastructure such as one in Japan, with similar rural heritage, similar high population density, and a literacy rate that in 1960s Japan was similarly low, Uttar Pradesh alone will need much denser grid of expressways and 4+ lane highways. Far far more than all the expressways and highways proposed so far by the current and previous chief minister combined. Other states of India too will need a similar network of their own. The 150 to 250 km expressway proposals are trivial, grossly insufficient but a nice start. India needs to dream big. Like China is doing now. Like Japan did between 25-50 years ago. |
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#87 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
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Political will plus sensitivity to poor people is required. Everything depends on that. Along with as m1973 said, all of us want poor people to work for us but never stop to think where and how these people will love, work and educate themselves.
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#88 | |
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Join Date: Aug 2010
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Quote:
people talk about land and in UP the population density is a big issue. I guess they can make the farmers partners in profit for the land? or be employed by the expressway? @philebus Its not 50-55 years ago. The meiji restoration (a hardcore dictatorship) ensured Japan made the jump from developing to developed. Very easy to say follow the Japanese model when at the core of it was a hardline dictatorship. Despite the second world war defeat japan had the plans and know how. Its the same for Germany. Hilter a dictator laid the tracks and plans. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meiji_Revolution |
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#89 | |
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msg
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: lucknow
Posts: 1,510
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the problem in UP is bit tricky
The average size of land holding in UP is just about 1hectare! e.g. for Ganga Expressway you need approx 30,000Hectare of land. This means employment to 30,000 people on GE. This is simply not possible. In G Noida/YEIDA after HC orders farmers are getting 7%(or 10% not sure) of land back in developed area. This model is to some extent good as in case of just 1heactare of land you get 700sqm of developed land. In this area you can open a shop and have constant source of income. In this model govt can go for lower land price and provide source of income to people in developed areas. The only issue needs to be addressed is the lag in land acquisition and income from developed land. The current model of UP is also pretty decent where you give money for good 33years. Many solutions can be found only problem is everyone wants to do his/her politics around land. (From political parties to activist etc.) Quote:
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#90 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2010
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i see
whats the average earning from 1 hectare of farm in UP for a farmer. say $2000 per hectare will mean $60 million the government will have to pay them every year. Plus they are free to go anything else they want. The question is how much toll do you think these large expressways will generate? I am suggesting the government builds this using its own finances and then uses the profits from the toll to compensate the farmers for life. But this all hinges on how much toll yo think can be collected. |
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#91 | |
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msg
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: lucknow
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for simple calculation we can take sugarcane crop
1 hectare produce 65 to 70 tons of sugarcane and is almost 1 year crop. Couple of weeks back UP govt announced price for sugarcane as rs 2900 per ton so the max earning = approx 2 lakhs per ha. profit = 2lakhs - labor cost - diesel cost - fertilizer cost - pest cost - loan for some equipment = probably max profit of rs 1 lakhs per year per ha. Land requirement for GE (correct numbers) http://www.upeida.in/project_1.htm Land Requirement – The land required for acquisition for construction of Ganga Expressway and three Link Expressways is 15120 ha. and for land parcels is 11254 ha. Quote:
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#92 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2011
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Quote:
Many nations developed their expressway and highway networks, after WW2, without being under a dictatorship. USA would be one of many examples. |
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#93 |
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Join Date: Dec 2011
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m_1973,
The actual profits for sugarcane as cash crop I have seen have ranged between INR 40,000 to 60,000 per ha ($300 to $450 per acre per year). see this report, for example. or this (it uses 10 year old data). In certain ideal weather conditions, best breed, high tech precision farming, no post harvest losses, better prices than 2012/2013 target prices, profit may touch INR 100,000 per ha per year. Even if we use sugarcane as benchmark for determining value of land for A-L expressway, I am long way from being convinced that the land is worth INR 8,000,000 per acre - that is like 150-200 years worth of income on net present value basis. |
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#94 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2011
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Ignoring nine poor people to lavishly take care of one poor person is a questionable policy. Hurting nine poor people by paying too much to one poor is more so. India has over 700 million people who live on less than $2 per day, or about $700 per year (see world bank data). It is unpersuasive to argue that India should pay a few hundred or few thousand land owners $60,000 or $90,000 per acre lumpsum upfront, while tens of millions fellow Indians have tough time making ends meet, while land prices in developed and developing parts of the world is 10 to 25 times cheaper. The problem is that these land owners, with their political backers, can keep coming back for more and more money for that one acre, once the upfront US$ 60,000 per acre has been spent. Protests by a few thousand people and media headline stories are easy and very low cost way to block the needs and interests of the other 700+ million people. If land is that expensive, or land owners unwilling to sell, why not consider elevated expressways? |
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#95 | |
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msg
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: lucknow
Posts: 1,510
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I totally agree the price of land is not worth what farmers are asking but we have to be careful in doing the calculation.
with just 1 ha of land farmer easily maintains 2 cows /buffalo’s. (i think current price is INR 18-22 per liter that vans of milk cooperative buy) This gives them decent income. Generally farmers in UP grow the basic items (wheat /potato etc) and do not have to go to market to purchase. Earlier farmers in UP also had good practice of growing vegetables but now most of them stopped and prefer to purchase from market. Again for fruits most do not buy from market as they grow sufficient in surrounding areas. Once you are in urban setting you have to buy everything. Except in Bundelkhand and some parts of eastern UP failure of crop is rare. approx. 1lakh (upper limit) profit is more or less correct for today for 1ha. of sugarcane crop. If I remember correctly last year sugar mills paid close to 16000 crores to farmers for purchase of sugarcane in UP. Quote:
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#96 | |
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msg
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: lucknow
Posts: 1,510
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Problem is more of mindset
we had very good history post independence of land reforms, bhoodan movement, free land to SC/ST, panchayati raj model etc. etc. Almost all social movement today ask for land from govt for landless poor. I have not see any movement where activist ask for quality education so that poor can be migrated to urban area with good employment. The policy govt is trying to frame also revolves around same mindset (gandhian) (Gandhian vs Ambedkar) (Gandhi looked at village as solution to all problem and Ambedkar looked at it as centers of exploitation and asked all to move to urban areas) Quote:
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#97 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2011
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Skilled labor, I agree with you, is something India needs; and skills - safe construction work, machine operators in housing projects, electrician, wood working, plumbing, glass work, product assembly, etc are skills that the poor need to become productive and better paid. Such vocational schools and factories to employ people needs infrastructure and land. On mindset - it is the same in India as elsewhere in the world. Everyone wants more money for their property, if they can get it. 'Buy low, sell high' is a slogan all over the world. Social activists and speculators have their own agenda, everywhere in our world. Here are three ideas that have helped land acquisition and encouraged fair reasonable prices eslewhere. 1. Use ballot/voting method to get popular support for major infrastructure projects. If the majority in a state democratically vote 'yes' on a proposal that the state should build specified expressway / highway / infrastructure / schools / etc, and acquire land for it - it gives the needed political support that it is desired by public and is public good. 2. Use land bonds as a form of partial payment for the acquired land. These bonds have maturity date that trigger with the completion of the project, and are paid in part by the project (not government). This aligns the interest of the land owner and the project. The land bonds can also offer guarantees of food supply equivalent to farm output per year and fodder supply for cattle etc. 3. Increase competition. Adopt technology such as elevated expressways to reduce the need for major land acquisitions in areas where people do not want to sell land. People are more reasonable when competitive options exist. In 99%+ cases, people do want to sell their land - farming is a hard way to make a meagre living. India has about 400 million acres of arable land. It is impossible that all this land is earning $2000 per acre in profit (~ 1 lac/year) every year, and $4000 per acre of revenue every year! That would stranegly imply rural India is about 2 trillion economy, and with agriculture as 16% of its GDP, the remaining GDP is 12 trillion - or, in other words, such claims would mean India's true GDP is larger than that of the United States, or European Union, or China. In other words, $1000 - $2000 per acre profit from its 400 million acres of arable land would lead to absurb claims that India isn't a low income country and that large majority of India isn't living on $2 per day or less. The truth is that the profit per acre is much smaller, India has hundreds of millions of poor people, and projects such as A-L expressway a good opportunity for some to sell their land and many to benefit from the infrastructure that will result. |
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#98 | |
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msg
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: lucknow
Posts: 1,510
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I come from Farrukhabad district of UP and numbers I mentioned are latest and are correct. I cross check the numbers and they agree up to INR 1lakh is profit per ha. The profit in sugarcane is max and rest of any agriculture product gives you equal to or less than sugarcane. (Land is one of most fertile in India) You can not do sugarcane anywhere as crop is water intensive and well irrigated land can only help you grow sugarcane.
Area under sugarcane in India http://www.sugarcane.res.in/index.ph...statistics/280 About the land price in my district 40-50lakhs is the price per ha and in small town (for me is almost slum) price is as high as 7 crore per ha.! Voting can never be option for infra project because of social order. e.g. in one of village out of 2100 votes 600 votes are of my community and we control 95-98% of land and rest depend on us for living. acquisition of land from farmer threatens the social order of dominance of one caste in India. Consensus in village is myth and voting is complex. For voting you want people to take informed decision without bias and in hierarchy based order with low literacy such options are not possible. 1500 votes in village you can say live in BPL condition. $2 or $5 I dont know but rarely they sleep hungry as caste system by default use to take care of most caste in a village except SC. Quote:
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#99 | |
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msg
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: lucknow
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My last message also explains why Maya (dailt) came with expressways in UP and Mulayam (Yadav) opposed and why congress never thought of modern expressways in India. BJP has no clue what to do in UP...
This also explain why other political parties in India still not ready with expressways concept. Quote:
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#100 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Thanks, m_1973.
I accept your numbers. With prices in INR 70,000,000 per ha (US$500,000+ per acre), India may be unable to transition away from slums, build high speed quality roads, high speed railways, install sanitation system, build schools and universities, build hospitals in cities, etc. Why?, because with poverty as widespread, who in India has that kind of money to buy the needed land, take risks and launch large projects? It feels as if a small 9-10% landowners are politically strong, well connected with media / social activitists, and are blocking the infrastructure and opportunities for the rest. Paying too much for crops and land and large agri subsidies to a few may explain why the financial condition of states such as Uttar Pradesh, that is its total debt and fiscal deficit, is in a bad shape. I have another question for you - what about others parts of Uttar Pradesh (and other states)? is it proper to assume other crops - pulses to wheat to rice to vegetables - yield a profit per acre that is much less that INR 100,000 per ha (~US$ 700 per acre)? I am trying to figure out if expressways such as the A-L expressway concept, or 4 lane highways for that matter, may be more feasible in other parts of Uttar Pradesh / other states? |
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