The future of individual motorized mass mobility (going beyond cars)

[Suburbanist]

A field where things are getting very exciting is that of individual motorized mass mobility.

Today, that translates mostly into cars (automobile) supplemented by motorbikes and other related vehicles. It means a 4-wheeled vehicles powered by an internal combustion engine and steered with two axes.

That paradigm frames 90% of the discussion within urban circles about mobility, especially when compared to other classical "public transport" alternatives that rely on large vehicles and fixed routes.

The reality is that, if you leave the hype away, the concept of the "mainstream" car as we know it is extremely clever in its functional terms:

- fully compatibility with an extreme wide range of ROWs (from farm dirty lanes to urban tunnels to mountain roads to 10-lane highways)

- almost zero set-up time (you just turn it up, exceptions apply to extremely cold weather scenarios), 24/7 availability

- independence of third-party manpower for operation on the short-term

- ample capilarity, allowing you to get virtually anywhere, anytime where there is a road nearby

- usable on very different trip lengths without losing scale operability


In those terms, it is easy to understand why the personal car took over so quickly other more primitive forms of transportation at the time it came around. However, the concept of personal car also has its drawbacks, of which I highlight:

- point-of-use pollution

- overreliance on human operation (= accidents and deaths/injury)

- dependence on fossil fuels

- extremely low rates of usage (typical personal car stays idle 90-95% of the time, parked) requiring premium and large storage space in many cases (parking spaces that interfere with the built-up environment)


For these reasons, "reducing the use and/or dependence on car" has become a mainstream of modern urban planning community. However, we might be witnessing, 110 years after the first cars came around as mass-manufactured items, a huge revolution in personal mobility.

On the one hand, we have alternative engine design that rely on electricity (already commercially developed), hydrogen etc. These eliminate the point-of-source pollution issue, greatly reduce noise (as whomever ever drive or stood by an electric car can attest to) and also eliminates, up to a point, the strict dependence on fossil fuels, allowing the indirect use of renewable energy sources such as wind or solar to power the car. There is a thread about that on this forum.

On the other hand, we have the (IMHO) even more exciting field of different vehicle driving and control methods, which can be coupled with alternative propulsion to create a new ecosystem of personal mobility vehicles that moves further away from the "car as we know it" design without compromising its concept.

Self-driven cars are not exactly a new idea, but the computational power needed to develop was just too expensive or not available until very recently. Now, we've seen very impressive results with things like the Google Driverless Car and other similar projects. They are passing extensive tests but, for merely statistical prediction, it is easy to expect them to be safer than an human-controlled traditional car in no more than a couple years, if they aren't already.

Of course, the idea of relinquishing the control of a relatively powerful machine to computers will always generate skepticism and fear, as earlier history shows (ATMs, electric fuel pumps, driverless/unmanned train operation, robots in manufacturing, central a/c or heating systems, 'automated' elevators, IFR flight etc). However, I think it is somehow inevitable that computer-driven cars will be proven much, much safer than human-driven ones, even if some very specific occasions they behave dumbly with tragic consequences.

The exciting thing about contemporary driverless cars is that they are ready to operate on legacy road systems, not requiring a whole set of dedicated infrastructure that would have to be built from scratch, at an astronomical cost, before they could be useful.

What excites me is the convergence and integration of driverless cars and alternative propulsion. Imagine: if you have a vehicle that maintains all the key attributes that make a traditional car intact, but you get rid of most of its negative impacts (pollution, use of fossil fuels, accidents, idling and parking).

Moving ahead even further, we can visualize a scenario in which people wouldn't own so much cars as much as rent them seamlessly via some Internet request, with vehicles stored away from streets and also built much more lighter once crashes are drastically reduced due to overspread use of driverless cars.

Obviously, that doesn't sit well with urban planners that see on auto-mobility (with or without cars) a sort of "sin" that must be eradicated from cities. If you follow some urban planning bloggers around, especially those from North America, sometimes you can glimpse almost a panic that decades of building a "consensus" that "cars are bad" (using the "it pollutes, it is dangerous and it stays parked on limited street space") can be wiped out when personal vehicles are made cleaner, three order of magnitudes safer and usable by everyone who can pay. But I can wait for these whole new development on personal mobility to come to fruition.

[provinciano]

[provinciano]

Sub, what's the difference between google's system and another companies? I mean, those projects have been developed since the 80's

[AltinD]

More like in the 60s ... I would go as far as claim that Google just gets the merit because the Google name is on it (smth like the claim about iPhone and Apple), while in reality are the manufacturers themselves that are in forefront of the research and experimentations with complete solution, from self driveness, to communication with other cars and the traffic signals, being visually static (road signs) or smart integrated ones.

[teddybear]

I am enthusiastic of the driverless vehicle technology. If the technology is really good and smart, it is potential to greatly reduced accidents, aids the mobility and vision and impaired, and the kids and elderly as well.. imagine that.

But also, it will reduced or eliminate jobs of drivers...

[VelesHomais]

I completely share your views in this regard, Suburbanist. I'm looking forward to driverless electric vehicles dominating our roads. I also think that the current urban sentiment is completely misguided with their crusade against personal vehicles.

Speaking of renting cars instead of buying them, I know that there are already in motion preliminary plans to introduce autonomous car share program in New York City, which is planned to start with unused driverless cars parked at the airports, where owners of such cars will earn money by renting them out as taxis. Investors are already waiting for legislation to be passed in New York allowing autonomous cars on the roads and for manufacturers to start mass producing them.

Eventually we'll have apps on our phones or in our augmented reality glasses, where we'll see closest available autonomous vehicles, choose the car we want (by brand, for instance) and use it as a taxi, without any worries about finding a parking space where ever you're going. The car will pick us up, drive us where we need to go and leave to pick up another driver. This is going to be cheaper than using a taxi and faster than any other mode of transportation. Best of all, we'll be able to utilize excellent highway/road infrastructure already in place. These cars could also be all fully electric, charging by themselves.

One of the primary obstacles to mass proliferation of electric vehicles in the cities, as opposed to suburbs, is that there are no places to charge them. Usually people don't have their own garages. With autonomous cars, this is no longer a problem, as cars could leave at night to go charge somewhere, even if it takes 6 hours, with traditional charging stations.

On the economical side, from a car owners perspective; we'll have our cars working for us, when we're not using them. From a strictly user's perspective; there will be immense numbers of cars, working 24/7, competing with each other, lowering the costs for a ride.

The safety advantages don't even need need to be mentioned, they should be obvious to everyone.

[kevinpham1302]

More like in the 60s ... I would go as far as claim that Google just gets the merit because the Google name is on it (smth like the claim about iPhone and Apple), while in reality are the manufacturers themselves that are in forefront of the research and experimentations with complete solution, from self driveness, to communication with other cars and the traffic signals, being visually static (road signs) or smart integrated ones.

__________________
bán đất đồng nai | căn hộ sunrise city q7 | căn hộ phú mỹ vặn phát hưng