TRANSPORT | Airport

[WatcherZero]

Dft has begun the consultation on airport capacity with a consultation on its forecasting methods and a document explaining how submissions to the inquiry should be written. Interesting thing is this chart which predicts how many routes each airport would have by 2050 with and without the London airports running out of capacity.

Unconstrained Constrained Difference
Heathrow 193 121 -72
Gatwick 106 83 -23
Stansted 79 68 -11
Luton 40 31 -9
London City 25 14 -11
Southend 1 4 +3
London group 245 230 -26

Manchester 83 105 +22
Birmingham 52 67 +15
Glasgow 10 12 +2
Edinburgh 30 31 +1
Newcastle 14 17 +3
Belfast International 15 16 +1
Bristol 35 41 +6
Liverpool 22 35 +13
East Midlands 14 54 +40
Other airports 56 79 +23

Looks like its definetley in MAGs interest no expansion in capacity occurs :P
looks like East Midlands would become the airport of choice for the east coast of the country.

[js1000]

Originally Posted by WatcherZero

Dft has begun the consultation on airport capacity with a consultation on its forecasting methods and a document explaining how submissions to the inquiry should be written. Interesting thing is this chart which predicts how many routes each airport would have by 2050 with and without the London airports running out of capacity.

Unconstrained Constrained Difference
Heathrow 193 121 -72
Gatwick 106 83 -23
Stansted 79 68 -11
Luton 40 31 -9
London City 25 14 -11
Southend 1 4 +3
London group 245 230 -26

Manchester 83 105 +22
Birmingham 52 67 +15
Glasgow 10 12 +2
Edinburgh 30 31 +1
Newcastle 14 17 +3
Belfast International 15 16 +1
Bristol 35 41 +6
Liverpool 22 35 +13
East Midlands 14 54 +40
Other airports 56 79 +23

Looks like its definetley in MAGs interest no expansion in capacity occurs :P
looks like East Midlands would become the airport of choice for the east coast of the country.

Aye. East Midlands is the largest freight airport, potential growth with HS2 and offsets the threat of Birmingham growing. If Stansted is recommended for a hub airport (which I believe is the only realistic option) then MAG will find themselves in a good position.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

FT carrying news article about shifting Heathrow axis West and making it 4 runways. Would seem, cost wise the most sensible plan for London. That does not mean I agree with it!

If that happens, MAG has bought a dodo.

[WatcherZero]

They have to move the Motorway, fill a reservoir, build 4 new runways and keep the existing terminals meaning long taxi times. Its not cheap. But moot anyway, the commision will already have been secretly ordered not to find in favour of Heathrow expansion.

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Many airports eg Dallas/ Amsterdam etc have massive taxi times, this will not be an issue they will consider!

[world_rep]

Interesting thing is this chart which predicts how many routes each airport would have by 2050 with and without the London airports running out of capacity.

Manchester 83 105 +22

Would be interesting to know where DfT get their figures, considering MAN currently has 150+ regular destinations on its timetable.

[js1000]

Originally Posted by Uomo Senza Nome

FT carrying news article about shifting Heathrow axis West and making it 4 runways. Would seem, cost wise the most sensible plan for London. That does not mean I agree with it!

If that happens, MAG has bought a dodo.

Wake up! You're very naive. That stuff has been happening for the past 10 years.

One week its "Gatwick to seek permission for new runway". Next week its "Mayor of London commissions group to look at Stansted expansion". Then its "Thames Estuary airport gains support" etc.

[Irish Blood English Heart]

Originally Posted by WatcherZero

They have to move the Motorway, fill a reservoir, build 4 new runways and keep the existing terminals meaning long taxi times. Its not cheap. But moot anyway, the commision will already have been secretly ordered not to find in favour of Heathrow expansion.

Ah you old cynic WZ

[WatcherZero]

Originally Posted by world_rep

Would be interesting to know where DfT get their figures, considering MAN currently has 150+ regular destinations on its timetable.

Routes not destinations, a flight that went for example Amersterdam, Hong Kong, Sydney would be three destinations but only one route. They believe that as the slot capacity crunch comes Londons choice of routes will fall as the frequency of a smaller number of routes increases. E.g. an Airline might not be able to speculatively throw in three flights a week to somewhere when instead the slots are needed for say two flights a day to another overcrowded destination.

[world_rep]

Routes not destinations, a flight that went for example Amersterdam, Hong Kong, Sydney

But it still does not make sense. To have a route means you have a destination.

Therefore, with 150+ non-stop destinations means you will have at least 150+ routes.
If we are suddenly going to start throwing in MAN-AMS-HKG as an example of a route, then surely the number becomes almost infinite, as there are probably over 1000 ways of going from MAN-HKG indirectly.

The whole sentiment does not make any sense. Im not just fighting MAN's corner, as every airport they have mentioned have more routes and destinations than mentioned. To me its just more proof the government has no clue about aviation at all.

[wrinkly]

Originally Posted by WatcherZero

But moot anyway, the commision will already have been secretly ordered not to find in favour of Heathrow expansion.

And there was me thinking the whole purpose of the commission was to find in favour of Heathrow expansion, but not until after the general election.

Why would the government need to set up a commission if it intended to continue with its stated policy of not expanding Heathrow?

[WatcherZero]

It needs to set up a commision to waste time until the next election and avoid having to make a choice now.

[nerd]

Originally Posted by WatcherZero

It needs to set up a commision to waste time until the next election and avoid having to make a choice now.

True;

- but it also gets them off the hook that they are pledged in the Coalition agreement not to expand Heathrow; yet they know that any review of airport capacity in the South East must include Heathrow expansion as an option.

The object is to be able to assure one set of supporters that Heathrow expansion will never happen under a Tory government; while assuring another that the question is still open.

As it happens; I don't think the inquiry will be rigged specifically against Heathrow expansion. But I expect it to look very like the last government's airport strategy, and come to similar conclusions; Stansted and Heathrow are the only sites that can function as hubs, while being economically viable (as the Estuary sites are not). Nothing suggests to me that the basic interaction of economics and geography has changed.

That said, I am also expecting that Stansted will look a lot stronger, and Heathrow rather weaker, when the review is finished. To put in crudely; quite a lot of commentators have been seduced by the Estuary options, but once everyone agrees that the Estuary options are unfeasible in reality; those Estuary votes transfer to Stansted.

[chchdesign]

Hi everyone, I just thought I'd pop in and let you all know about a thread in SSC's The Barracks re the Falkland Islands issue with Argentina. If any of you would like to join the discussion and possibly vote in the poll which is asking if you agree that the Falklands should have the right of self determination or should they be handed to Argentina, then that would be great.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...56817&page=285

[Uomo Senza Nome]

Traffic Stats January 2013
3.39% up
19.9m rolling average...maybe March will be 20m again.

[jrb]

BDNW.

TURKISH Airlines is expanding its Manchester- Istanbul service from 10-flights per week to 14.

The carrier, which has been flying from Manchester since 1993, said the extra flights would begin at the end of March.

It will operate Boeing 737-900 and Boeing 737-800 aircraft, with business and economy class available.

The flights will leave Manchester at 1100 or 1555 seven days a week.

The airline, which is a key partner of Manchester United FC, offers connections from Manchester to more than 100 destinations beyond Turkey.

Many business travellers use Istanbul as a hub for onward travel to the Far East, India, Africa, Central Asia and Russia.

[js1000]

Slightly long-winded analysis of Manchester and MAG's acquisition of Stanted fit into the overall strategy. Too long to paste but interesting nonetheless.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...e-future-96292

[hulmeman2]

Originally Posted by js1000

Slightly long-winded analysis of Manchester and MAG's acquisition of Stanted fit into the overall strategy. Too long to paste but interesting nonetheless.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...e-future-96292

Ominous statement:

But STN has the better overall prospects if the Davies Commission comes down in favour of it. It would be no great surprise if the resources of the MAG route development division were directed more towards enhancing Stansted’s product rather than favouring Manchester’s. Airport Investor Monthly has often employed analogies with the world of professional soccer and with two of the World’s biggest clubs located in Manchester it is appropriate to use another one here.

And this, re HS2:

But what effect will the station at Birmingham Airport have? Journey times between that airport and central London will fall to around 40 minutes, less than Stansted–central London and about the same as Gatwick - central London. On that basis there is little prospect of MAN attracting passengers from southeast England by rail when those passengers would have to by-pass Birmingham Airport en route. One would assume that Birmingham’s own route network will grow almost as big as Manchester’s while the latter is waiting for the line to be extended.

[Farsight]

I saw that too, Hulmeman.

And even after the line is extended, Birmingham Airport will be very well placed for growth at the expense of Manchester Airport.

[Gavin]

Air travel is a function of more than just time for most people. If it were just a function of time we would all be flying concorde or a later derivitive. Just because you will be able to get to Birmingham airport quicker from London doesn't mean lots of people will start using it.

£100 return to Majorca from BXH? Great
£200 return on HS" to get there? I'll fly from Stanstead

I'm not saying it won't make any difference but I do think the difference it will make may well be overstated.