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Old August 11th, 2017, 03:40 PM   #12161
Arul Murugan
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States own tax revenue - source: Niti Ayog

Just made per capita state's own tax collection from the info. available.

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Old August 12th, 2017, 08:18 AM   #12162
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Cash deposits flowed into specific accounts that were usually less active, finds RBI study.

Note: the term lakh crore is a 5 zeros + 7 zeros = 12 zeros, i.e., ₹1 trillion

Quote:
MUMBAI, AUGUST 11:
Excess deposits in the range of ₹2.8-4.3 lakh crore accrued to the banking system during the demonetisation period, with unusual cash deposits in specific accounts, which were usually less active, estimated to be in the range of ₹1.6-1.7 lakh crore, according to a study conducted by Reserve Bank of India staff.

On November 8, 2016, currency notes of ₹1,000 and ₹500 denominations (specified bank notes or SBNs), valued at ₹15.4 lakh crore and constituting 86.9 per cent of the value of total notes in circulation were demonetised.

The SBNs were demonetised (between November 9 and December 30, 2016) in a bid to fight corruption, black money, money laundering, financing of terrorists, and counterfeit notes.

Before discontinuation of the over-the-counter exchange facility at bank branches on November 25, 2016, about ₹37,000 crore of SBNs were tendered, according to a study by Bhupal Singh (Director,Monetary Policy Department) and Indrajit Roy (Director,and Department of Statistics and Information Management).

7 types of accounts
The paper said a significant amount of SBNs flowed into seven special types of accounts — basic savings bank deposit accounts; PMJDY accounts; Kisan Credit Card; dormant or inoperative accounts; co-operative bank accounts with scheduled commercial banks (SCBs); bullion trader/jewellers’ accounts; and loan accounts.

In scenario 1, the estimated cash deposits in the aforementioned accounts during November-December 2016 with 52 banks were ₹4,35,800 crore. Cash deposits in these accounts during September-October 2016 were ₹2,70,100 crore. Thus, the variation of ₹1,65,700 crore can be assumed to be the increase in cash deposits under these accounts due to demonetisation in the absence of any noticeable activity in such accounts during normal times.

In scenario 2 (based on year-on-year growth of aggregate cash deposits), the estimated cash deposits in seven types of accounts with 52 banks were ₹4,35,800 crore during November-December 2016 and ₹3,06,500 crore during November-December 2015.

Average y-o-y growth of net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals) of all types of accounts of SCBs during November-December for last five years was (-)9.2 per cent.

In the above scenario, the estimated trend of cash deposits in these accounts during November-December 2016 is ₹2,78,300 crore. Thus, excess cash deposits during November-December 2016 work out to ₹1,57,500 crore.

Given the unusual cash deposits in specific accounts, which are usually less active, the authorities have opened investigations on the source of funds that flowed into the accounts.
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Old August 12th, 2017, 04:50 PM   #12163
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RBI’s dividend to Government falls by almost half to Rs 30,659 crore

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday announced that it will transfer Rs 30,659 crore as surplus to the government for the year ended June 2017, less than half the amount transferred last year.

While the move could upset the Finance Ministry’s Budget arithmetic, a lower surplus also dents the broad premise that scrapping of currency notes that failed to return to the banking system post demonetisation would extinguish the RBI’s liabilities to an equivalent measure and, thus, open the possibility of transfer of these gains to the Centre in the form of higher dividends.

Demonetisation Spurred Investments In Mutual Funds And Insurance Plans, Suggests RBI Study

Quote:
The decision to scrap old high-value currency notes last November and the subsequent crackdown on cash transactions may have triggered a shift from physical assets to financial savings, a central bank study suggests.
There has been a “distinct increase” of inflows into formal channels of savings such as equity and debt-oriented mutual funds and life insurance policies, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s Mint Street Memo. Even non-banking financial companies were “positively impacted in terms of collections and disbursals”, it said.

Net inflows into mutual funds between November and June soared to Rs 1.69 lakh crore from Rs 9,160 crore in the year-ago period, according to data from the Securities Exchange Board of India cited in the study. This came as the government barred cash transactions of more than Rs 2 lakh and asked people to explain the source of large deposits after the note ban. Demand for real estate and gold declined immediately after demonetisation. Deposit rates too fell as banks were flush with liquidity after people turned in their cash held in banned notes.

Premium collected by life insurance companies more than doubled in November when demonetisation was announced. The study noted that most of these were single-premium policies where the amount is paid in lump sum rather than periodically. The total life insurance premia collected between November and June was 46.3 percent higher than the year-ago period at Rs 42,210 crore.

The study also showed that loan repayments, which had taken an immediate hit after the cash crunch, rebounded and were comfortably growing over the monthly average collection seen till October last year.
These developments may incentivise the greater shift from physical to financial savings, the study said, adding that a declining inflation would provide an impetus to financial savings.

Demonetisation: RBI will take time to count scrapped currency note deposits

Quote:
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Tuesday said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is in the process of counting scrapped currency notes and will come out with the final figures once the fake notes were weeded out.

Answering oft-repeated questions over the issue, he said in the Lok Sabha that the RBI had received the last tranche of scrapped currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 only in July and the central bank would take time in counting the billions of notes.

On questions regarding the amount of scrapped currency deposited back in the banks, the finance minister said, "Today they (RBI) have to count every currency note. They have to take the fake currency out...That exercise the RBI is taken to a very advanced level.

The minister said since March demands were being raised for disclosure of the amount of scrapped currency deposited in the banks but it can not be done over night. "...I am hearing that argument tell us the currency. Please study the subject closely. And therefore as soon as they (RBI) complete this exercise, the figure will be placed by them before the country along with the figure of fake currency," he added.
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Old August 13th, 2017, 07:09 AM   #12164
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India's PSUs are set for a logical evolution through disinvestment. PSUs were set up as part of state-led capitalism to bring self-reliant economic growth. Between 1947 - 1990 244 central PSUs were created and run by the government. 20% of GDP, 15% Stock market capitilization, more than million people employed, 1/3 are loss making, gross turnover fell 7% in 2015-16 despite economy growing at 7%. There are over 1000 PSUs at the state and municipal level.

Up for divestment are Air India, Bharat Dynamics, Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers, Mazagon Dock and Mishra Dhatu Nigam. NITI Ayog has recommended sale of over 40 PSUs and closure of 26 sick ones. Also suggested are turning over schools, colleges and prisons to private sector.

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After racking up accumulated losses of Rs 50,000 crore, debt of Rs 55,000 crore, a failed Rs 30,000 crore bailout in 2012 and an aborted disinvestment attempt in 2001, the NDA government bit the bullet: last month, the Cabinet gave its nod to sell its stake in the beleaguered Air India. It isn’t the only state-owned behemoth in which the government reckons it doesn’t need to be wasting its time.

Half of India’s 235 Central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) are under scrutiny for a possible disinvestment. The government’s think tank NITI Aayog has recommended a strategic sale in over 40 public sector undertakings (PSUs) and outright closure of 26 sick PSUs.

This time, it may not be all talk and little action. Various governments have toyed with disinvestment since 1991, but with limited success. The biggest sell-off surge happened under the NDA government of 1999-2004, when PSUs like Maruti, VSNL, IPCL and IBP were privatised. It is hard to argue against the economic rationale for privatisation.

While CPSEs contribute over 20% to India’s GDP and employ over 10 lakh people, many have turned into bloated, inefficient behemoths and a drain on the national exchequer. One-third of the CPSEs today are making losses. Even a maharatna like BHEL has slipped. Between 2011-12 and 2015-16, a recent CAG report points out, its turnover declined from Rs 49,510 crore to Rs 26,587 crore and profits slipped from Rs 7,400 crore to losses of Rs 913 crore. Between 2007 and 2016, sick CPSEs reportedly logged losses of Rs 19.68 lakh crore. Small wonder, then, that NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant suggested that the government should hand over schools, colleges and prisons to the private sector as “the government has no business to be in business”.

The reality, globally, is a bit more nuanced. PSUs aren’t exactly out of fashion and have often been used to stoke nationalistic fervour. The French government has threatened to nationalise the shipyard in Saint-Nazaire instead of selling it to Fincantieri of Italy. Italians are nervous about French “colonisation” as many cross-border deals (like the €50 billion Essilor-Luxottica merger) have resulted in French firms having the upper hand.

Global Lessons
In India, PSUs were created post Independence to build a self-reliant, state-led economy. Through the 1970s, amid a nationalisation drive, PSUs dominated the economic landscape before a bankrupt government was forced to rethink its strategy post liberalisation.

India echoed what was happening globally. Professors Aldo Musacchio and Sergio G Lazzarini talk about evolution of state capitalism in their book Reinventing State Capitalism (2014). Globally, too, state capitalism peaked around the 1970s. As a result, output of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to GDP reached 10% in mixed economies and 16% in developing economies.

Then reality dawned. The oil shock of the 1970s and the liquidity crunch of the 1980s meant SOEs globally ran average losses equivalent of 2% of GDP, according to the World Bank. In developing countries, they stood at 4% of GDP. Between 1980 and the turn of the century, the focus shifted to a wave of PSU reforms that included minority stake sales, listings and overhauls of PSU management.

The year 2008 was an inflection point when state-led bailouts of distressed companies — PSUs or even private — became the norm. The US government bailed out private firms like GM and AIG. By some calculations, firms under government control today account for a fifth of the world’s total stock market capitalization.

While state capitalism has been in vogue, governments have been trying to make it efficient. The book refers to two examples. In 2007, Brazilian private firm JBS acquired US-based Swift & Co for $1.4 billion to become the world's largest beef processing company. Then it acquired Pilgrim's Pride for $2.8 billion. JBS, identified as a national champion, was funded by Brazilian National Development Bank (BNDES), which became the largest minority shareholder in JBS. SOEs in China are coming from the other end. In 2010, Agriculture Bank of China's mega IPO raised $22 billion.

The two examples reflect the new forms of state capitalism taking root. Both are distinct from the traditional (often inefficient) PSU model where government owns and manages the SOE like an extension of public bureaucracy.

PSUs have often helped government deal better with economic cycles. "In China when the economy is in danger of recession, SOEs can quickly deploy government resources and play a counter cyclical role. India is different in that governments, especially Central governments, are relatively much weaker," says Xi Li, professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

After its independence in 1965, Singapore government owned a lot of companies like SingTel and Singapore Airlines. In 1974, it set up Temasek Holdings, a sovereign wealth fund, to hold and manage its assets on a commercial basis and push the nation's growth agenda. Temasek today owns and manages a portfolio of over S$250 billion.

Japan and Korea took a different approach. Chaebols in Korea and Keiretsu in Japan have played a key role in the economic growth of the two countries. And governments in both the countries have nurtured them. This also led to crony capitalism which they are now trying to tackle. For example, Chaebol reforms was a key issue in the 2017 election in Korea. "To avoid the trap of import substitution and make local firms globally competitive, governments gave these companies export targets. When achieved, they were given special credit and land," says Ajay Chhibber, visiting distinguished professor, NIPFP, a research institution.

India's Path
NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant recently told ET Magazine that "the government should spend money on improving social indicators like health, education, nutrition". Beyond disinvestment and sell-off, some shifts are already visible. PSUs like BHEL are morphing to be relevant. Besides renewable energy, it now wants to make components for metro rail and defence. "To facilitate public spending, new PSUs are sprouting in areas like inland waterways, metro rail and renewable energy," says Vinayak Chatterjee, chairman, Feedback Infra. The government has set up the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation to build highways. New mechanisms are being explored to help PSUs operate efficiently. For example, National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) will help fund projects where the government's stake will be capped at 49%.

Former bureaucrat Pradeep Baijal says PSUs are a necessity in areas where government has a natural monopoly; like railways, metro rail, utilities or sensitive areas like satellite or nuclear power. In a rapidly evolving world, ¡§there should be a model of constant review of the PSU portfolio - what to retain and what to divest," adds Amit Sinha, partner, Bain & Company.

Gaurav Taneja, partner, EY, says PSUs are necessary in areas where private sector is not keen to invest, like public health in rural areas. "In fact, government should convert many of these operations into public sector outfits and set up a strategic framework to evaluate their performance," he says. Consider the case of not-so-profitable Jan Dhan scheme where public sector banks were asked to roll it out without adequate compensation and yet are expected to compete with the private sector.

"The difficulty with PSU emanates from a misplaced sense of their reason for existence," says Utkarsh Palnitkar, partner, KPMG in India. "Distortions come into play when a PSU is expected to perform on similar lines as private sector units yet is deprived of management autonomy," he adds. Experts recommend that disinvestment proceeds must be parked in a separate fund to be used in infrastructure investment. "We should not be selling the family silver to pay the grocery bills (which is the case now)", says Chibber.

Ranen Banerjee, partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers India, says: "Private and public sector need not be completely divorced. While PSUs can build and own the infrastructure, private sector could do operations and maintenance efficiently." An example: railway tracks could be state-owned, and trains with the private sector.
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Old August 13th, 2017, 11:54 AM   #12165
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Indian economic cycle entering strongest phase: Report

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/60042844.cms
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Old August 15th, 2017, 01:53 AM   #12166
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Sir, the notion that most of the black money has been parked in jewelry/gold/benami real estate is widely accepted in India(a relatively small amount in cash). Also news reports have come out that 2000 rupee note counterfeits have been found - you would have to google this. Perhaps it was an error on my part to say that demonetization "failed" in these respects as this is strong language, but my opinion is that it didn't live up to the hype. Though the conversion to digital economy has been good as we both can agree.

This was a strong policy, done in a blunt manner. I was recently watching a documentary on North Korea, and the totalitarian state has also done a similar move years ago.

Anyway what's done is done, lets hope that they finish the demonetization process as arthakranti has envisioned it. Going on vacation, won't be able to post for a few weeks.
Actually real estate as an asset for parking black money is no longer a good alternative after demonetization. This is because a lot of old real estate deals were being made utilizing cash. Post demonetization such deals have fallen in the domain of electronic transactions. So if someone wants to buy or sell property they can no longer use cash to do it. As a result if someone has parked a large sum of black money in real estate, then selling these properties in the black market is not longer possible.

The effects of this is already being noted by the fact that real estate prices are not rising as fast as before.
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Old August 15th, 2017, 11:52 AM   #12167
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The growth rates in Japan just show you need to have a long term strategy to be successful

Shinzo abe made some deeply unpopular decisions. It took around 5 years for the policies to take effect

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/13/b...gdp-rises.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abenomics

Modi was confronted with woes as well. No doubt that by passing long term reforms India is on the right path. We shall overcome the NPA crisis.

For those who want instant gratification please do read the long road to reforms which several countries have taken from Japan to Argentina. Medicines are mostly always better.
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Old August 18th, 2017, 11:15 AM   #12168
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India's exports rises 3.9% in July 2017

http://www.business-standard.com/art...1701179_1.html
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Old August 21st, 2017, 11:44 AM   #12169
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an interesting read in a magazine the business insider (cant get a link online)

It says the USA shale producers are continuing to churn out oil and be profitable at lower price points. Some are now profitable at $15 per barrel.

Its making OPEC production cuts a bit redundant.

The report claim that oil prices are going to stay low for a while to come....with India the biggest beneficiary
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Old August 22nd, 2017, 09:10 AM   #12170
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I have been thinking about a plan which is probably highly doable by GOI. There is so much pent up demand in every state for infra projects that affect day-to-day living. There are many local projects like roads, bridges, new railway lines, city/town development (electricity, water, sewage, local roads, event metros for smaller towns). Many of the projects have stalled for lack of money and also the stifling bureaucracy of GOI to approve anything. Japan structures its deals in foreign nation projects by giving loans for 20+yrs at very low percentage charge, the Indian Govt should do the same for states. Each state can get 10-50,000 crore loan for 20+yrs payable at 1% interest. The states have full say in coming up with a list of their high priority items. They can execute their infra projects however they wish with the center just keeping an eye on execution to flag any egregious violation of basic central India laws. This should stir the economy and make it more equitable across the country.
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Old August 22nd, 2017, 08:47 PM   #12171
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Not doable. Government cant give out money at 1% interest rates because the cost of funds is way higher. Plus investment projects are very risky. States wont complete them in time plus projects like sewage dont generate any cash. Our states wont be able to repay the money at all. Central govt will just have to write off those massive loans which were infact too expensive for it to procure in the first place. May be centre can borrow from market but in the end it will just add to public debt and nothing else.
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Old August 23rd, 2017, 06:57 AM   #12172
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Glad to see the counter arguments. However the cost of funds is the cost of investment that the GOI should shoulder. Getting 1% is highly productive considering the growth in the economy. Japan would be willing to lend at 0.5% to the GOI (remember they have -ve interest rate in Japan) long term, so raising funds should be a no-brainer. If the states don't pay then the GOI can withhold state owed monies of the taxes collected to redeem at least principal amounts. All in all I think it is highly doable and the benefits far outweigh the negatives, if any.

India should get away from serial execution plans and instead allow parallel/concurrent unfettered growth ideas. This is the only way to jump start the economy and regain India's status in world GDP numbers.
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Old August 25th, 2017, 07:14 AM   #12173
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Glad to see the counter arguments. However the cost of funds is the cost of investment that the GOI should shoulder. Getting 1% is highly productive considering the growth in the economy. Japan would be willing to lend at 0.5% to the GOI (remember they have -ve interest rate in Japan) long term, so raising funds should be a no-brainer. If the states don't pay then the GOI can withhold state owed monies of the taxes collected to redeem at least principal amounts. All in all I think it is highly doable and the benefits far outweigh the negatives, if any.

India should get away from serial execution plans and instead allow parallel/concurrent unfettered growth ideas. This is the only way to jump start the economy and regain India's status in world GDP numbers.
If we can get near zero % interest rate loans from Japan then good for us. Japan is already giving such loans for bullet train but I dont think they can give out that much capital just so for your basic infrastructure. Such loans are made by JICA and I do not know how much capital is available with JICA for Indian projects. There are states in India that run massive deficit like Bihar, Bengal, UP etc. Do not even for an instant think that you will get any money back. On top of that Bihar banned alcohol which was one of the big sources of revenue.

And centre can never snatch tax collected by states. That would be unconstitutional. Centre gets a share from all taxes paid like GST. One cant take over other's slice and sharing is done on agreeable terms.
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Old August 25th, 2017, 10:40 AM   #12174
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massive bias

please quantify "massive deficit" for Bihar, UP & Bengal. Also for benefit of readers compare it to MH, KA, TN and other states.

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If we can get near zero % interest rate loans from Japan then good for us. Japan is already giving such loans for bullet train but I dont think they can give out that much capital just so for your basic infrastructure. Such loans are made by JICA and I do not know how much capital is available with JICA for Indian projects. There are states in India that run massive deficit like Bihar, Bengal, UP etc. Do not even for an instant think that you will get any money back. On top of that Bihar banned alcohol which was one of the big sources of revenue.

And centre can never snatch tax collected by states. That would be unconstitutional. Centre gets a share from all taxes paid like GST. One cant take over other's slice and sharing is done on agreeable terms.
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Old August 26th, 2017, 12:05 AM   #12175
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Bihar runs a surplus. WB runs a slight deficit, which has improved over the past few years.

UP does run a massive deficit. Close to 3% of GDP. You can thank AY for that. Was under control when Mayawati was in charge.
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Old August 26th, 2017, 06:24 AM   #12176
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Under AY was 3.0% and under Yogi projected to be 2.97%

Data is for 17-18
FRBMA Ceiling limit is 3.5%
KA = 1.5%
MP = 3.49%
MH = 1.53%
Chhattisgarh = 3.49%
BH = 2.9%
Odisha = 3.5%
Telangana = 3.49%
Kerala = 3.44%
----------------------------------------

This shows how massive is the Bias.




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Bihar runs a surplus. WB runs a slight deficit, which has improved over the past few years.

UP does run a massive deficit. Close to 3% of GDP. You can thank AY for that. Was under control when Mayawati was in charge.
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Old August 26th, 2017, 08:08 AM   #12177
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Show me a link. Some of these numbers i feel are not right.

Telangana especially runs a surplus
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Old August 26th, 2017, 08:11 AM   #12178
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http://www.prsindia.org/parliamenttrack/state-budgets/

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Show me a link. Some of these numbers i feel are not right.

Telangana especially runs a surplus
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Old August 26th, 2017, 08:18 AM   #12179
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Thanks for the link. Will look in detail when I have the time.

But your numbers sort of prove the point that poorer states run larger much deficits on average

Anything above 3 percent is massive and unwise
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Old August 27th, 2017, 01:15 PM   #12180
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Small is definitely not beautiful, especially after demonetisation

An RBI analysis shows is that while big business managed to keep its head above water, small and mid-sized firms were taken to the cleaners after demonetisation

While the big boys escaped punishment, the smaller ones were taken behind the woodshed and caned. Ebitda, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, is a measure of profitability.

What’s more, the smaller the size of the company, the worse was the performance. The chart shows that for FY17, sales of firms with a turnover of less than Rs25 crore fell by 44%.

The problem is, if this is the state of the listed companies, spare a thought for the smaller unlisted firms that are likely to have fared even worse. As for businesses in the vast informal sector, they must have their backs to the wall by now, buffeted first by the demonetisation wave and now by the goods and services tax.

http://www.livemint.com/Money/AE3U4h...-demoneti.html
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