TIANJIN | Xiangluowan Business District | U/C

[phoenixboi08]

it definitely makes the project more attractive. the parks on the Eastern bank of the Huangpu are my favorite thing about Lujiazui. These parks look much more "lush,"
which softens the impact of the built area.

[luhai]

Originally Posted by BarbaricManchurian

I would say within 12-18 months.

Doubt it, that's a lot of people and business to move in. That process may take years. Constructing the shell is one thing, finishing the inside, connect infrastructure, have services available and having people moving in is another.

In new developments like these, it's essentially a chicken and egg problem.

[luhai]

Originally Posted by -TDN-

One thing I've learned is to never read any article about Asia, especially China, from any Western newspaper/site. The amount of ignorance is through the roof.

That's because so few of them actually research and on the ground reporting. Instead, they just report news from Chinese media (which they will always add state media, no matter the source) and then apply a template to it. (Is it bias or laziness, i can't tell)

Here is the template for High speed rail news:

Chinese state media reported ....[the actual news].....(end of first paragraph with just a few sentences) Chinese high speed rail projects surfers from low ridership..........massive debt number ### billion.......expert from XXX [university|investment firm] says the practice is not sustainable...Much of the technology is stolen...lack of intellectually property protection in china...Also suffers from low quality....Wenzhou Collision....40 killed, some XXX source believe the actual figure is much higher....buried trains.....In 2011, the rail minister is arrested for corruption.....corruption is a massive problem in China......lack of democratic institutions and check and balances found in western countries.

Just for any on news on Chinese High speed rail and follows on this template.


Also another template, which usually accompanies any Chinese economics news, any economic news. With the usual Ordos new district (which always apply to the entire city of Ordos), South China Mall, local government and comments from Jim Chanos.
And before Ordos, there is Guangzhou CDB... As funny as it is watching him proclaiming buildings to be empty, I would at least give him credit for actually going there. Some experts on the other hand never set foot in the country.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xfc...l#.UV6B1so5zfk

[phoenixboi08]

Originally Posted by luhai

That's because so few of them actually research and on the ground reporting. Instead, they just report news from Chinese media (which they will always add state media, no matter the source) and then apply a template to it. (Is it bias or laziness, i can't tell)

Here is the template for High speed rail news:

Chinese state media reported ....[the actual news].....(end of first paragraph with just a few sentences) Chinese high speed rail projects surfers from low ridership..........massive debt number ### billion.......expert from XXX [university|investment firm] says the practice is not sustainable...Much of the technology is stolen...lack of intellectually property protection in china...Also suffers from low quality....Wenzhou Collision....40 killed, some XXX source believe the actual figure is much higher....buried trains.....In 2011, the rail minister is arrested for corruption.....corruption is a massive problem in China......lack of democratic institutions and check and balances found in western countries.

Just for any on news on Chinese High speed rail and follows on this template.

That's funny, maybe it's changed recently, but for the last few years (that they've even been reporting on the subject), the [default] template would be as follows:

I'm on this train, it's very fast ....[gives design speed].....this train is in China.....[gives cities on the line].....I'm currently on a new HSR line, it's really long....[gives length of line].... Talks about CRH380 (add additional info at will: speed record, indigenous technology, attempts to export the technology, etc). I'm jealous, very jealous (proceed to talk at length about Obama Administration commitment to rail, lack of anything substantial occurring yet, bickering in Congress, postering by Republican governors, etc). Quote of someone Chinese. (gloss over broader concerns of price, environmental impact, safety.) Desperate plea for America to follow suit....*

There are people who are "Bearish" and there are people who are "Bullish," most lay in between.

I tried to hold my tongue but I just can't...I understand that there are people who write BS about China (just like there are people in China who write BS about other countries...), I'll grant you that. You know what, I won't even argue if you said it was most, the majority, the vast majority, or even 99.99999%. Just, to say all Foreign journalists, who set out to write an article on China, are hell bent on manipulating public opinion towards an anti-China slant is...come [/I]on[/I]! I don't think you're saying that, but that's what I'm hearing, which is why I commented on that matter to begin with...

Broadcast media [in the US] is irresponsible, but I highly doubt they're motivated enough to embark on some concentrated campaign to do anything of the sort. Most of these networks fail to see the value in digging deeper or just don't think the audience will care much. But then again, this is making the mistake of believing that a majority of people still get their "news" primarily from these networks at all.

All in all, what I'm saying is, if it's bullshit, people will know it's bullshit. Smells the same no matter the source.

*I'm being ever so slightly sarcastic, but honestly, that's what the vast majority of what I've been reading sounds like.

[BarbaricManchurian]

Originally Posted by luhai

Doubt it, that's a lot of people and business to move in. That process may take years. Constructing the shell is one thing, finishing the inside, connect infrastructure, have services available and having people moving in is another.

In new developments like these, it's essentially a chicken and egg problem.

I'm talking about the currently constructed buildings in the first phase. Most are going for a mid-2014 opening to coincide with the opening of the HSR station. By that time the parks should be complete and the area will look nice as a whole, but there will still be a few buildings U/C and probably an entire new phase starting.

[Gaeus]

Originally Posted by luhai

That's because so few of them actually research and on the ground reporting. Instead, they just report news from Chinese media (which they will always add state media, no matter the source) and then apply a template to it. (Is it bias or laziness, i can't tell)

Here is the template for High speed rail news:

Chinese state media reported ....[the actual news].....(end of first paragraph with just a few sentences) Chinese high speed rail projects surfers from low ridership..........massive debt number ### billion.......expert from XXX [university|investment firm] says the practice is not sustainable...Much of the technology is stolen...lack of intellectually property protection in china...Also suffers from low quality....Wenzhou Collision....40 killed, some XXX source believe the actual figure is much higher....buried trains.....In 2011, the rail minister is arrested for corruption.....corruption is a massive problem in China......lack of democratic institutions and check and balances found in western countries.

Just for any on news on Chinese High speed rail and follows on this template.


Also another template, which usually accompanies any Chinese economics news, any economic news. With the usual Ordos new district (which always apply to the entire city of Ordos), South China Mall, local government and comments from Jim Chanos.
And before Ordos, there is Guangzhou CDB... As funny as it is watching him proclaiming buildings to be empty, I would at least give him credit for actually going there. Some experts on the other hand never set foot in the country.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xfc...l#.UV6B1so5zfk

I love the way you did the format of Asia / China Bashing. Such format are usually being followed by such respectful, entertaining media. I will probably do that kind of format for more China Bashing. It's entertaining and humiliating but they really don't care, hehe.

Good progress by Tianjin, by the way. These are built so fast.

[cfredo]

LOL...the South China Mall...
(Western) media brings up this ghost mall every few months, looks like they're running out of examples for China's real estate bubble. This one mall is just too insignificant for a large economy like this (some developer lost some money, that's it).

And the coverage of the "ghost" city Ordos the other prime example for China's bubble is becoming less and less. Why? Well, it isn't a ghost town anymore.

[cfredo]

Originally Posted by dtlc445

You mind giving me proof? Discredit the "Western media" for me. show me proof that all these ghost towns are filled and more White Elephant projects are successes. We all know the South China Mall is a White Elephant

The South China Mall is of course a White Elephant, but one mall won't bring the whole RE market down.

Ordos is getting filled: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpo...&postcount=231

[spectre000]

Let's try to keep this on topic of Xianqluowan BD.

I admit I find the "ghost cities"-thing fascinating. I actually like the occasional skeptism. It's kind of refreshing from all the usual "rah-rah, everything is going great" attitude. But let's not stray too far off topic.

[luhai]

Actually all this discussion sort of illustrate the difficulty of the constructing outside of existing city center, which is where Xiangkuowan is located.

Take the case of South China Mall, it is not that Chinese people isn't shopping. This is Dongguan's Fuming Pedestrian Shopping Area, and compare it South China mall. It opened in 2003, and fully populated in 2005, around the same time South China Mall opened in Dongguan as well. The difference is Fuming is located in City center, while South China Mall is half an hour drive/bus away. In the US, we are used to travel long distances, however in China even 2 km is long enough that people wouldn't even bother.

Fuming Street/Expo Square

South China Mall, notice how far away it is from the city itself. The area around the mall populated a bit more since, due a new bus transit station opened close by.


Developing outside of the city center means you don't have tear down existing (and possibly historical) houses, and plan the area the modern way instead of following plans laid down several hundred years ago. However, it creates a chicken and egg problem that makes the first mover's life really really hard for both businesses and residents. Since the first residents that settles can't get services, while the first business to open up can't get customers.

Tianjin is trying to solve this by carrot and stick all the State own enterprises tomove to the Binghai new area, and hopefully the employees would have move along. (Including Sea-Gull watch company, my other passion) However, I wonder if it is enough. Many of the cities are trying to replicate Pudong, however, Pudong, despite being a country side place before development is not physically that far away from Shanghai center.

[jaysonn341]

Originally Posted by dtlc445

That's great. If China eliminates its barbaric One-Child Policy and give full reproductive rights to its citizens, then I'll believe in the "China hype."

China also needs to give more freedom of speech to its citizens and take down its "Great Firewall" in order to foster creativity and innovation among its citizens

China is not innovative at all. Baidu is a Google rip-off. Weibo is a Twitter rip-off. Youku is a Youtube rip-off......

Just read this and thought, well this guy is clearly well informed we should send him to Beijing and call a meeting with China's top leaders so he can express his opinions in a more productive way!
This comment (if genuine) is an example of how serious the consequences of Western media can be. People become... stupid?

[:jax:]

South China Mall was a "what were they thinking?" project. I hope I don't insult luhai but Dongguan would be among the last places I put a large shopping mall, let alone a huge one. Dongguan is where things are made, it is not really a city but a loose collection of smaller cities and factory towns, the infrastructure, public transport, and integration is poor to non-existant. A big mall in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, or a smaller city like Foshan could work, but they wouldn't go to a Dongguan mall. At least it would have to at a sensible location in easy reach, which South China Mall isn't, it's not even convenient to get there from Dongguan.

Being "biggest" isn't enough. The next on the biggest list is Golden Resources Mall in Beijing, a dusty mall in the west of Beijing which only now, a decade later, got a metro stop. New and shiny beats big, and Golden Resources Mall looks like a throwback to the 1980s, and the bigness works against it. It looks empty. This is another issue with early development, by the time it gets into use it can already be old-fashioned.

Originally Posted by luhai

Many of the cities are trying to replicate Pudong, however, Pudong, despite being a country side place before development is not physically that far away from Shanghai center.

The Binhai location is good, at least in principle, but you are right it is not Shanghai, at least not yet. And the integration with Tianjin proper is as of yet not good enough. That I presume will improve significantly in the years to come. Long-term (say the 2030s) I am bullish on Binhai, but less sure on the years in between.

[BarbaricManchurian]

[Munwon]

got to say im not impressed with the speed nowadays

[desertpunk]

@dtlc445:

Either stay on topic or leave.

[Scion]

by 走着去梅阿查

[luhai]

Originally Posted by :jax:

South China Mall was a "what were they thinking?" project. I hope I don't insult luhai but Dongguan would be among the last places I put a large shopping mall, let alone a huge one. Dongguan is where things are made, it is not really a city but a loose collection of smaller cities and factory towns, the infrastructure, public transport, and integration is poor to non-existant.

None taken, but keep in mind Dongguan has 8 million people, and 8 million people still have to buy things. I you look at the actually busy shops in Dongguan, they almost all sell in cheap items less than 500 yuan (and most less than 100 yuan). This South China Mall wants to invite those shops, it may well have being populated, but it decides to be some kind of resort than a destinations. (who the hell integrates a hotel in a mall?) Perhaps the original developer expected people to fly in and shop in the mall... (perhaps wants a no sales tax/VAT deal, but didn't bribe enough to get it?)

As for Xiangluowan Business District, there are risks, but given it's close to TEDA and the port district, so the city center can move to Binhai District. But I expect that will take time, perhaps over the period of 10 year after completion of the first self sustainable neighborhood.