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Old January 14th, 2009, 08:14 PM   #1
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Part VI | Economy, Trade, and Business

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Old January 15th, 2009, 06:59 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaki_langit View Post


Lihat aja sampai sekarang "Rating" Indonesia dari S&P, Moody ataupun Fitch masih 3 - 4 tingkat dibawah rating 'Investment Grade" dan masih jauh dari Rating yang kita dapat sebelum terjadi krisis finansial 1997/1998.
I wouldn't trust rating agencies so much..
Mereka ngasih rate AAA utk sub-prime mortage securities.

Terlalu banyak skandal dan kepentingan in those agencies..
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=pNBctwAsu48
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Old January 15th, 2009, 02:54 PM   #3
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wuiih udah thread baru aja nih.. padahal di thread sbelumnya numpuk
berbagai macam good news from indonesia
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Old January 15th, 2009, 03:10 PM   #4
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Kemiskinan 2009 Ditargetkan Turun Jadi 12%


Jakarta - Di tengah krisis ekonomi global yang dihadapi saat ini, pemerintah mencoba untuk menekan tingkat kemiskinan menjadi 12% dari jumlah penduduk di 2009. Pada 2008, tingkat kemiskinan mencapai sekitar 15,4%.

Hal ini dikatakan oleh Menko Perekonomian sekaligus Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani di acara acara "Perkenalan Pengurus Kadin Indonesia "2008-2013 dan Pertemuan dengan Menko Perekonomian" di Financial Hall, Graha Niaga, Jalan Sudirman, Jakarta, Kamis (15/1/2009).

"Untuk itu, pemerintah akan bekerja keras untuk menjaga inflasi Indonesia mencapai tingkat yang rendah," ujarnya.

Sri Mulyani mengakui sulitnya menjaga tingkat inflasi Indonesia di single digit, karena selama ini inflasi Indonesia selalu mendekati single digit. "Karena itu kita minta pengusaha banyak membantu, karena inflasi yang rendah merupakan keinginan semua pihak," katanya.

Di 2009, Sri Mulyani mengatakan krisis yang terjadi akan berdampak kepada kemiskinan dan pengangguran di Indonesia, yang pada tahun 2008 mencapai tingkat 8,3% atau sebanyak 35 juta orang.

"Pengangguran bisa kita tekan ke 7%, tapi kalau pemerintah tidak cukup baik, pengangguran bisa mencapai 9%," ucapnya.

Pemerintah memperkirakan tanpa kebijakan menahan PHK, pengangguran 2009 bisa mencapai 8,87%. Sedangkan kalau dengan kebijakan menahan laju PHK bisa dilakukan, maka bisa ditekan menjadi 8,4%.

Sri Mulyani mengatakan pemerintah akan tetap menjaga konsumsi rumah tangga tetap di level 5% guna menjaga pertumbuhan ekonomi bisa mencapai target 4,5-5,5%.

"Kalau tidak terjadi PHK maka momentum pertumbuhan bisa dijaga, pemerintah juga menaikkan gaji PNS, TNI dan Polri 15% di 2009, lalu BBM diturunkan, harga komoditas juga sedang turun. Semua ini diharapkan bisa menjaga konsumsi tumbuh 5% dan bisa secure pertumbuhan. Pertaruhan kita tinggal di investasi dan ekspor," pungkasnya.
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Old January 15th, 2009, 03:23 PM   #5
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Indonesia upgraded to 'free' country by US agency


Indonesia, which became Southeast Asia's largest democracy when President Soeharto was ousted in 1998, maintained its status as a free country in 2008, according to a report released by a US-based international rights agency.

Freedom House, which measures civil and political freedom in each country to determine whether the world has become more democratic, painted Indonesia green on its 2009 edition of the Map of Freedom, released Tuesday. The color indicates that Indonesia is listed among "free" countries.

The agency upgraded the status of the world' most populous Muslim majority nation fromto "free" in its 2006 report, due in large part to the previous elections, which were generally considered successful. Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines are still listed as only "partly-free," making Indonesia the only free country in Southeast Asia.

The agency has published the overview of the report on its website but has not yet added details to each country and thus the explanation for why Indonesia successfully maintained its position is not yet available. As of now it is unknown whether Indonesia's press freedom, which was marked yellow or "partly free" last year, has improved.

Indonesian rights activist Poengky Indarti, from Imparsial, questioned the Fredom House's conclusion, saying that the country suffered significant setbacks last year.did not see freedom in 2008," she said, citing a number of cases where journalists, authors and anti-graft activists were arrested for defamation.

She added that in addition to the controversial pornography bill passed last year, the government was still deliberating on a number of bills, such as the state secrecy bill and the public information bill, which are considered inimical to freedom.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported from Taipei, where the report was released, that political freedoms in general declined around the world for a third straight year in 2008. Russia and Greece were marked down because of political incidents and Iraq and Malaysia went up because of increased pluralism. The increased momentum of Malaysia's opposition in national elections was also cited.

Russia, docked for elections that were described as, "neither free nor fair," and neighboring Russian-influenced countries that stifled dissent following peaceful anti-authoritarian revolutions, led the downward trend, Freedom House said.

Greece's position sank because of nation-wide riots in December and the government's "inability" to control them, the group said.

But Iraq, despite years of turmoil following a US-led war, moved up the chart because of security improvements and the increased participation of Sunni Muslims in national politics.

Freedom House presented the report in Taipei because it sees Taiwan as a free area in Asia where it wants to make an impact, its local organizer said.

The world's 89 "free" countries or regions outnumbered the 42 listed aslast year, but political rights and civil liberties declined overall largely because governments worldwide mimicked European anti-authoritarian "color revolutions" that reversed course and squelched democracy, Freedom House said.

"Although setbacks in 2008 did not represent substantial declines for most countries, they were numerous and affected most regions," the group's statement said, citing 34 declines and 14 improvements.

The financial crisis threatens political rights and liberties this year in places without "democratic institutions" and "safety valves" to ease any ensuing conflicts, said Freedom House's Christopher Walker.
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Old January 15th, 2009, 03:32 PM   #6
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Indonesia has the potential to become a black swan


Nassim Nicholas Taleb published a book recently called The Black Swan. This New York Times bestseller by the prominent literary essayist explores the emergence of highly improbable world events. He calls them black swans.

Astonishing success of Google, Sept. 11 and the recent stock market crashes are all black swans. Consider another, or one that has the potential to be one: Indonesia.

Bell-curve predictability would brush this aside.

The violence of 1998 and the turmoil of the post-Soeharto era has been etched indelibly into the memory of the world. For many, the odds of Indonesia's blood-checkered past recurring are large.

But the reality is the country has changed. Today, Indonesia enjoys relative peace and economic development, and is increasingly being compared to middle-income developing nations like Brazil, India and Mexico.

A number of indicators point to a greater sense of normalcy.

Indonesia remains structurally stable, the administration is moderate, and the pro-reform leadership is likely to remain in place after the 2009 elections.

Fears of disintegrasi Indonesia is a thing of the past. There is no evidence today that active centrifugal forces can bring about the country's 'Balkanization'.


And Indonesia is the only country in the region that has bucked the trend of a democracy in trouble. That is combined with what are regarded as a free press and impartial courts, crucial to any vigorous democracy.

Politics cannot but help carry a weight of significance. But economics remain the principal driver in the grand scheme.

As the world heads into a deep economic winter, Indonesia appears to be riding out the storm.
Certainly the slump in the stock market and the pronounced weakness of the rupiah shows Indonesia is not immune.

But for so long an underrated economy, it seems far more resilient than other ASEAN countries. One reason is that it relies less on exports, which contribute just 12 percent to the country's GDP.

Private consumption is strong and government spending looks set to rise.

Much of what has been accomplished thus far has been a result of economic management.

The Yudhoyono administration has maintained tight fiscal discipline and focused on debt reduction. As a result, Indonesia has a healthy balance sheet with US$52 billion in reserves and a government debt of less than 35 percent of GDP, compared to 77 percent of the GDP in 2001. This is the lowest among ASEAN countries.

Jakarta's policy is grounded on the assumption that declining commodity prices and slowing global demand will eventually ease inflationary pressure. If inflation is controlled, the central bank will have greater maneuverability in reducing interest rates.

So far, Bank Indonesia has kept interest rates on hold in an effort to shore up the rupiah despite lower inflation last month. With the BI rate lowered to 8.75 percent on Wednesday, Indonesia offers a healthy 8.50 percentage-point premium over the U.S. Fed funds rate, which should help maintain confidence.

Jakarta has also cut gasoline prices by 8 percent to ease inflationary pressures and reduce the drag on growth.

The Indonesian economy has grown at an average of about six percent on a quarterly basis since the end of 2006. The government is targeting growth of 6.4 percent for 2008.


Some believe the growth rate will be lower — between 4 to 5.5 percent -- but still significantly higher than any other ASEAN country.

The crystal ball is not all rosy, though. We still need to clean house in several areas.

Archaic labor laws are reducing Indonesia's attraction as a center for labor-intensive manufacturing.

Judicial corruption means businesses cannot take the sanctity of contracts for granted. Indonesia's anti-corruption watchdog has been making headlines with a spate of high-profile investigations.

The fact remains, however, that Indonesia is one of the world's most corrupt nations. It ranks 143rd on Transparency International's global corruption index, level with Russia, Gambia and Togo.

The benefits of macroeconomic growth have not trickled down. Despite Jakarta's economic vitality and the booming growth in other big cities, much of Indonesia remains poor.

Some 150 million Indonesians do not have access to piped water. The country has also one of the region's worst figures for maternal and infant mortality.

All these reinforce perceptions that Indonesia is still stuck in a rut. But we need to give the country its due worth by taking a long-term view.

Consider the fact that Indonesia has a $420 billion economy. If it grows at 6-7 percent in real terms, and 13-14 percent in nominal terms, then it is looking at an economy worth $5-6 trillion in 20 years' time — the size of the Japanese economy.

There is enough wealth creation here to ensure there will be some degree of refinement in the political process.

Increasingly, the wealthy in the country are taking ownership of public services. This is more good than bad. It fosters better policy making and implementation with respect to wealth distribution.

This can only lead to better education, healthcare, and infrastructure. All this will multiply economic growth.

Certainly fighting rampant corruption and revising labor laws will help spur growth. Infrastructure development is also key.

One of the reasons for China's growth over the past 20 years has been massive spending in infrastructure. And it is not over. Over the next two years, China will spend more than $260 billion on highways, bridges, ports and airports.

Land acquisition reform, a large dedicated budget and single-minded government focus could set the stage for an unprecedented surge in infrastructure development in Indonesia. Incentivizing the private sector to participate in this revolution could attract additional capital and allow for better management.

Net foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia was $1.1 billion in 2007, which stands at just 0.3 percent of GDP. This compares to $121.4 billion in China, or 3.7 percent of GDP. In India, net FDI was 1.4 percent of GDP, Thailand 3.2 percent, Singapore 7.3 percent, and Vietnam 9.3 percent.

Singapore transformed itself from a swampy Third World seaport into a First World financial dynamo in 30 years. In 1965, the odds were stacked against it.

With the passage of time, Indonesia might also well surprise the world with the impossible: to be a black swan.
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Old January 16th, 2009, 07:16 AM   #7
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‘As Good As It Gets’

Indonesia is managing the global recession better than most, thanks to its tough finance minister.

By Solenn Honorine and George Wehrfritz | NEWSWEEK

Last month a financial tidal wave washed over Indonesia, but not the one kicked up by the global credit crisis. Money flooded into government coffers from individuals and corporations eager to avail themselves of Jakarta's "sunset policy" on tax delinquency, which forgave past evasions in exchange for good behavior going forward. The exact size of the surge isn't yet known, but economists estimate that tax receipts were up more than 50 percent for the year. "We saw quite a big jump" in revenue in December from "taxpayers who never existed [on the tax rolls] or want to correct mistakes made in the past," says the plan's creator, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. Indonesians, she adds, are honoring their tax obligations "in a much more accurate way."

The influx marks a major triumph for Indonesia's current government and, in particular, for the woman who put Jakarta's financial house in order. Over the past four years, Mulyani has helped dismantle the financial architecture of the crony capitalism built by strongman Suharto before his 32-year reign ended in 1998. She has pressed hard to slash debt, both public and private; pushed through a rollback of budget-busting fuel subsidies; and overseen sweeping reforms of the customs and tax authorities—positioning Indonesia to post the world's best (or at least the least bad) emerging-market growth story in 2009. Unnoticed until recently, Jakarta's conservatism is now the envy of the developing world, and Mulyani is being hailed as a model regulator. "She could be the finance minister anywhere in the world," says James Castle, founder of the consultancy CastleAsia. "She's that good."

Largely to Mulyani's credit, the country's balance sheet is now among the most conservative in the world; government debt now sits at just 30 percent of GDP, down from more than 100 percent a decade ago, while Indonesia Inc. is far less leveraged than its peers elsewhere in Asia. Despite that relative austerity, growth is being driven both by commodities—Indonesia's traditional mainstay—and by strong domestic consumption from a population approaching 240 million. And neither the commodity bust (which has also driven down the price of the imported energy on which Indonesia depends) nor tighter global credit looks set to hobble a country that, from the household to the boardroom and cabinet chambers, is all but debt-free.

Indeed, Indonesia is one of just three major emerging economies forecast to grow faster than 4 percent in 2009. The other two—China and India—have decelerated more rapidly in recent months and face tougher policy challenges. Mulyani says Indonesia could expand by as much as 5.5 percent this year, which is barely slower than the 6 percent it clocked in 2008, and perhaps enough to pip one of its two Asian counterparts in this year's growth race. Not bad, considering that the country's economy collapsed in 1998, shrinking 18 percent in a single year. Wolfgang Fengler, a senior economist at the World Bank, says Jakarta's macroeconomic management is now "as good as it gets."

Indonesia owes its turnaround to an ensemble cast. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has provided the political stability and pro-globalization vision that underpin today's successes. Boediono (who goes by one name) was a deft coordinating minister for economics until he handed the brief to Mulyani last May to head Indonesia's central bank, and Trade Minister Mari Pangestu deserves plaudits for kick-starting Indonesia's export economy. Yet Mulyani stands out for her toughness. She says her staff had to "swallow a lot of very bitter reality" during her first six months on the job. After landing there, for example, she confronted senior staff: "How can you send your daughter or your son to study abroad when you earn only this kind of salary? Where did you get the money?" To which she added: "You have to admit: we are all committing this crime." Her staffers still work evenings and weekends to meet her expectations, and she's been known to tangle with colleagues. Last year she lobbied intensively to ram through a deeply unpopular reduction in fuel subsidies that President Yudhoyono initially opposed. "She got her way because she is capable of playing politics," says Anton Gunawan, chief economist at Bank Danamon in Jakarta.

Yet by raising pay for bureaucrats, and not demonizing those who previously took payoffs to make ends meet, she has raised standards and steeled a reputation as an incorruptible reformer. Her message to her staff is simple and positive: "I only have one goal: I want the Indonesian people to trust us, this department, because this country will go nowhere if the people don't start to trust their own government." Though nobody would yet describe Indonesia as a model of transparency, the changes in its taxation and customs administrations have been profound, and in turn have enhanced Indonesia's growth potential to the point that "the world needs to update the way it thinks about the country," wrote Nicholas Cashmore, CLSA investment bank's Indonesia analyst, in mid-2008, declaring: "Southeast Asia's largest economy is in great shape." And thanks to Mulyani, Indonesia is garnering more respect by the day.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/178817
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Old January 16th, 2009, 07:17 AM   #8
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2009, Indonesia Ekspor Beras ke Jepang

Jakarta, TRIBUN - Sebanyak lima negara akan menjadi negara tujuan ekspor utama beras Indonesia pada tahun 2009. Negara-negara adalah Filipina, Malaysia, Timor Leste, Brunai Darussalam khusus untuk katagori beras medium. Sedangkan untuk Jepang khusus beras-beras berkualitas super.

Rencananya, jumlah beras medium yang akan diekspor mencapai 1 hingga 1,5 juta ton sepanjang 2009. Sedangkan khusus untuk beras kualitas super yang ditujukan ke Jepang mencapai 10.000 hingga 20.000 ton.

"Kemarin kita tandantangani kesepakatan antara 2 perusahaan internasional, satu lokal di Jawa Timur untuk mengurus izin kepada Depdag terkait rencana ekspor," kata Dirut Perum Bulog Mustafa Abubakar dalam acara konferensi pers, di Jakarta (8/1)

Mustafa mengakui Bulog bukan berada diposisi memutuskan terkait rencana ekspor beras, namun hanya sebatas mengusulkan. Selama ini keputusan ekspor beras berada di tangan Departemen Perdagangan dengan ketentuan surplus 3 juta ton.

"Kalau 63,5 juta ton gabah tercapai maka akan ada surplus, setelah itu ada peluang ekspor terutama untuk Filipina, Malaysia, Timor Leste dan Brunai," imbuh Mustafa.

Ia menjelaskan khusus untuk beras kualitas super yang akan diekspor ke Jepang kualitasnya mencapai 5%-10% pecahan, seperti beras Pandan Wangi, Cianjur, Padi Mulia, Aromatik dan lain-lain. "Ini yang akan kita coba rilis untuk ekspor awal," jelasnya. Sedangkan untuk katagori medium, masih harus menunggu kecukupan untuk melayani kebutuhan dalam negeri yang diperkirakan bisa dilakukan pada Juni hingga September 2009.

"Keempat negara ini sudah ada pesanan baik secara informal dan formal pada kita, konjen mereka masing-masing sudah meminta untuk diutamakan," ucapnya. Khusus untuk Jepang, Mustafa mengatakan dari pihak importir Jepang sudah melakukan penjajakan dengan pihaknya termasuk memantau kualitas beras yang diinginkan oleh konsumen Jepang.

"Bulog bukan penentu ekspor beras tapi mengusulkan saja, kita masih menungu dari BPS, lalu Deptan dan tim teknis interdep, yang kemudian diajukan ke depdag, kalau sudah memberi izin baru bisa dilakukan ekspor," paparnya.

Ia memprediksi untuk priode ekspor ke Jepang akan berlangsung antara bulan Februari sampai Maret 2009. "Harga beras di Jepang itu mencapai US$ 1 sampai US$ 2 per kilonya," imbuhnya. (dtc)
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Old January 16th, 2009, 07:17 AM   #9
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Indonesia On The Move
Carl Delfeld, 12.25.08, 05:00 PM EST
Forbes Magazine dated January 12, 2009



Given sound management in recent years, Indonesia entered the current turmoil in a strong position.

It was a terrible year for emerging markets in 2008. To put things into perspective, the outflows from emerging markets exceeded US$50 billion (RM175 billion) as the year wound down, compared with total inflows of US$95 billion from 2003-07, according to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research.



These markets have paid a heavy price as foreign investors liquidate positions, especially in markets considered more risky than home markets.

But consider Indonesia — below the radar screen of most global investors despite a sterling performance in 2006 and 2007. With real GDP of US$840 billion and a population of 240 million, Indonesia quietly accounts for two-fifths of ASEAN's population and one-third of its GDP.

The nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio has been declining, its foreign exchange reserves are at a robust US$48 billion, and its stock market was one of the three best performers in the world in 2006 and 2007. (2008, however, was brutal, as the fortunes on our recent list of Indonesia’s 40 Richest took a beating.)



Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is seen as the face of the new Indonesia, a reformer who has tried to bring transparency to the financial sector and rid the country of graft and waste, no small order after decades of corruption.

The government passed a new investment law in March 2007 and has initiated tax and customs reforms, introduced Treasury bills and improved capital market supervision. Randy Salim, spokesman for the World Bank in Jakarta, states that “given sound macroeconomic management in recent years, Indonesia entered the current phase of market turmoil in a strong position.”

One sign of strength: Conglomerate Lippo Group recently announced that it was going to invest US$500 million in distressed real estate in Europe and the US.

The key perception of Indonesia is that it is heavily dependent on commodity prices. But the Indonesian economy seems to be holding up rather well, despite the commodity meltdown, with GDP up by 6.1 per cent in the year through the third quarter. What about next year?

Finance Minister Mulyani recently predicted that economic growth could cool to about five per cent (even that number may be optimistic).

As a significant exporter of commodities, it will be squeezed by falling prices, but keep in mind that Indonesia’s total exports are equivalent to only 30 per cent of its GDP, while for Malaysia the figure is 95 per cent.

Looking ahead, Indonesia seems nicely placed to benefit from the inevitable rise in commodity prices as the cycle turns.

And don’t forget politics. Freedom House, an American think tank, now rates Indonesia as the only completely free country in Southeast Asia, only 11 years after Suharto’s fall.

It has developed a free press and minimised military involvement in politics, and in 2009 some 175 million voters across 17,000 tropical islands will choose a president, a vice

president and 560 parliamentarians. (One thing to watch in the long term: A new Indonesian law favouring local mining companies is scaring away big foreign miners.)



Attracting private investors to build out badly needed infrastructure for the world’s fourth-most-populous nation is another top priority. Less than 53 per cent of Indonesians have access to electricity; 27 per cent have access to piped water; 43 per cent of the workforce is engaged in agriculture.

The nation requires US$140 billion of infrastructure investment over the next ten years. The government can finance only 40 per cent of this amount; the balance of funds must come from the private sector.

According to Edward Gustely, senior adviser to the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, one example of progress on this front is the Indonesia Clean Technology Fund, the first private equity fund of its kind with the participation of the Indonesian government that aims to mobilise private capital for investing in such things as alternative energy, water treatment and agritechnology.

Investors seem to be looking ahead as Jakarta’s market is surging off a bottom. Tying into the infrastructure theme is the well-positioned Telekomunikasi Indonesia (US$0.65, TLKM: Jakarta) — a company that has explosive growth potential, as only 40 per cent of Indonesians have mobile phones.

The company has bounced off its low and still offers good value, a strong balance sheet and sports a nice six per cent dividend.

An excellent play on clean energy and Indonesia’s proven natural reserves is PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (US$0.20, PGAS: Jakarta), which has roots going back to 1859. Gas Negara’s net profits for the first nine months of 2008 were up 56 per cent compared with the same period in 2007.

Those investors looking for an even broader play should look at the Indonesian Fund (IF) managed by Credit Suisse Asset Management. While down 60 per cent so far in 2008, IF has also come to life recently but still trades at a 12 per cent discount to its net asset value.

Indonesia is on the move, get on board. — Forbes Asia

http://www.forbes.com/global/2009/0112/076.html
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Old January 16th, 2009, 07:18 AM   #10
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Sepak Terjang Perempuan Paling Berpengaruh

Sepak Terjang Perempuan Paling Berpengaruh



Tidaklah terlalu mengejutkan ketika Dr Sri Mulyani Indrawati, menteri keuangan sekaligus pelaksana jabatan menteri koordinator perekonomian, kembali dinobatkan sebagai People of The Year (POTY) 2008 setelah mendapatkan gelar yang sama untuk tahun 2007.

Dari sisi liputan media, jelas perempuan yang baru berusia 46 tahun ini, sangat sering menghiasi halaman depan surat kabar ataupun berita utama televisi.

Sebagai negara yang mencatat pertumbuhan ekonomi cukup tinggi tetapi masih mempunyai berbagai masalah ekonomi di tingkat masyarakat yang cukup pelik, peranan Menteri Keuangan Republik Indonesia sangatlah penting dan tangan dinginnya ditunggu banyak pihak.

Yang menarik, liputan tersebut sama intensitasnya, baik ketika ekonomi masih mengalami pertumbuhan yang cukup tinggi pada pertengahan awal 2008 maupun ketika ekonomi mulai melambat pertengahan akhir 2008.

Peristiwa ekonomi penting pada 2008 yang tentunya tidak boleh dilupakan adalah kenaikan harga minyak bumi yang mencapai rekor USD150 per barrel dalam jangka waktu relatif pendek dan menyeret kenaikan hampir semua komoditas primer, pangan, dan energi, dan akhirnya berwujud pada inflasi yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan.

Ujian pertama alumni Universitas Indonesia dan University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ini, pada 2008 adalah ketika APBN 2008 menghadapi kenyataan bahwa harga minyak mulai melonjak di atas asumsi yang sudah ditetapkan ketika APBN tersebut disahkan akhir 2007.

Dari sisi prosedural, pemerintah harus segera mengajukan APBN Perubahan, dan ketidakpastian harga minyak tersebut memaksa pemerintah melakukan perubahan lebih dari satu kali.Kepemimpinan menteri keuangan yang menghadapi DPR dalam melakukan perubahan APBN, diuji saat itu karena pemerintah dan DPR sama-sama tidak bisa membayangkan fluktuasi harga minyak yang terjadi sehingga penentuan asumsi harga minyak menjadi pertaruhan yang paling berat.

Meskipun asumsi yang akhirnya ditetapkan bukan yang paling akurat, APBN 2008 dapat berjalan dengan selamat dan mengatasi fluktuasi harga minyak dengan baik, ditolong juga dengan tren penurunan harga minyak yang cukup drastis pada akhir tahun.

Meskipun sementara pihak di luar pemerintah sering menuding pemerintah tidak becus melakukan prediksi, yang lebih penting adalah kemampuan mengelola APBN itu sendiri sampai akhir tahun fiskal.

Prediksi bisa meleset, tetapi apabila pengelolaan APBN baik dan berhati-hati, kekurangakuratan prediksi bisa diredam tanpa harus merugikan masyarakat. Ujian terberat Mbak Ani, sapaan akrabnya, adalah ketika pemerintah dipaksa menaikkan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) pada saat harga minyak bumi menjauh di atas asumsi APBN 2008.

Di mana pun di seluruh dunia,kenaikan harga BBM adalah kebijakan tidak populer. Namun, pada saat tersebut hampir tidak ada satu pun pemerintah di dunia yang dapat menahan tekanan kenaikan harga minyak dunia. Meskipun mendapat tekanan politik yang kuat untuk tidak menaikkan harga BBM, pemerintah tetap bersikukuh dan akhirnya terjadilah kenaikan sebesar 30 persen.

Sebagai menteri keuangan yang harus memperhatikan keberlanjutan anggaran, tantangan terbesar adalah menjaga keseimbangan antara besaran kenaikan harga dan beban yang ditanggung APBN. Kenaikan harga yang cukup besar jelas akan mengamankan APBN, tetapi akan menimbulkan beban berat bagi masyarakat.

Sebaliknya, kenaikan harga yang terlalu rendah akan mengancam keberlanjutan anggaran sementara kehidupan masyarakat mungkin tidak terlalu terpengaruh. Melihat data inflasi 2008, bisa disimpulkan bahwa kebijakan kenaikan harga BBM pada 2008 cukup mampu menjaga keseimbangan tersebut, di mana inflasi sebesar 11 persenberada di bawah perkiraan 12 persen dan kenaikan jumlah orang miskin bisa diredam.

Di sisi lain, APBN 2008 mencatat kinerja yang cukup lumayan,meskipun tentunya ada beberapa program pemerintah yang tidak sempat dijalankan dan terjadi kelambatan penyerapan anggaran menjelang akhir tahun anggaran. Terjadinya perlambatan ekonomi pada tengah tahun kedua,juga menolong meredam laju inflasi.

Selain sepak terjang dalam mengelola anggaran, prestasi Dr Sri Mulyani Indrawati dapat dipantau dari kemajuan reformasi birokrasi yang dilakukan di Departemen Keuangan. Meskipun cukup banyak kritik terhadap keefektifan program tersebut,dan terbongkarnya pungutan liar di kantor Bea Cukai Tanjung Priok, sudah mulai terlihat hasil yang bisa dijadikan landasan membuat kebijakan fiskal yang lebih baik di masa depan.

Yang terlihat ramai di permukaan, adalah gencarnya Direktorat Jenderal Pajak menambah jumlah pemegang NPWP (nomor pokok wajib pajak) dan tercapainya penerimaan pajak di atas target. Perbaikan kualitas birokrasi di Ditjen Pajak mulai terasa dampaknya dan sekaligus mendorong dilakukannya reformasi pajak besarbesaran, terutama dalam memperbanyak jumlah pembayar pajak serta menegakkan aturan-aturan pajak sendiri.

Selain program "sunset policy" yang mencoba mengarahkan pembayar pajak untuk memenuhi kewajibannya secara benar, perubahan terhadap undang-undang perpajakan juga memberi angin segar bagi masyarakat luas dan dunia usaha, di mana terdapat kesetaraan antara aparat pajak dan pembayar pajak serta beban pajak perseorangan yang lebih ringan.

Menteri Keuangan sendiri juga aktif mengampanyekan perlunya NPWP di setiap kesempatan. Bahkan di setiap kuliah awal semester di Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, dia selalu menanyakan kepada mahasiswanya apakah orangtua mereka sudah punya NPWP atau belum.

Mulai diberikannya insentif fiskal bagi beberapa sektor dan komoditas yang berpotensi ekspor ataupun menyerap tenaga kerja, adalah hasil penting lain yang dihasilkan Departemen Keuangan dalam rangka menjadikan pajak sebagai salah satu motor penting pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional.

Komitmen Menkeu dalam disiplin serta keberlanjutan anggaran juga tercermin dalam kebijakan desentralisasi fiskal. Keprihatinan Menkeu yang disampaikan secara terus terang dalam berbagai kesempatan terhadap tren pemekaran daerah yang seolah tidak tertahankan, mencerminkan komitmen tersebut.

Sampai saat ini, sayangnya,kekuatan politik masih terlalu besar dibanding kekhawatiran terhadap keberlanjutan anggaran tersebut.Jelas ini merupakan pekerjaan rumah pemerintah yang masih belum selesai dalam rangka desentralisasi fiskal.

Teguran atau sentilan Menkeu terhadap daerahdaerah yang lambat membelanjakan anggarannya serta lambat atau bahkan gagal menyerap DAK adalah bentuk lain dari kepedulian Menkeu terhadap desentralisasi fiskal yang tetap perlu didukung,tetapi membutuhkan banyak penyempurnaan.

Pada 2007, Depkeu mulai menerapkan sanksi pada daerah-daerah yang kurang disiplin dalam mengelola APBD, seperti keterlambatan penetapan APBD ataupun lambatnya serta gagalnya daerah mengelola DAK. Perbaikan dalam pencairan dana bagi hasil sumber daya alam, terutama migas, juga merupakan capaian penting Depkeu dalam menyukseskan desentralisasi fiskal, sekaligus mencegah kekecewaan para daerah penghasil.

Setelah Prof Boediono dipilih menjadi Gubernur Bank Indonesia, tugas perempuan yang dinobatkan sebagai salah satu perempuan yang paling berpengaruh di dalam negeri dan di luar negeri bertambah sebagai pelaksana jabatan menteri koordinator perekonomian. Gabungan pekerjaan dan tanggung jawab sebagai menko dan menkeu terasa sulit dibayangkan, tetapi sampai hari ini Dr Sri Mulyani menunjukkan bahwa hal tersebut bukanlah mustahil.

Yang lebih berat lagi, jabatan tersebut diemban ketika perekonomian global, termasuk Indonesia, dibayangbayangi krisis yang akan mengakibatkan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Prestasi perekonomian yang cukup baik pada 2008 tidak mungkin terulang, dan di pundak Dr Sri Mulyani-lah nasib perekonomian Indonesia 2009 bertumpu.

Menjadi tantangan bagi dia, bagaimana mempercepat penyerapan anggaran di pusat dan daerah sehingga dampak krisis bisa dikurangi dan bagaimana agar perekonomian Indonesia bebas dari segala macam pungutan dan halangan sehingga dalam kondisi yang sulit, investasi yang ada tidak hengkang dan masih mau melakukan ekspansi.

Paket stimulus fiskal serta keamanan sektor keuangan nasional akan menjadi tantangan lain bagi menko perekonomian sekaligus menkeu kabinet Indonesia bersatu yang akan selesai Oktober 2009.Apabila stimulus fiskal bisa direspons baik dan sektor keuangan tidak terganggu,Indonesia bisa selamat dari krisis meskipun pertumbuhan tidak setinggi 2008. Mudah-mudahan Ibu Ani masih mempunyai jurus-jurus tambahan untuk mencegah dampak terburuk dari krisis global sehingga mimpi buruk 1998 tidak terulang lagi. ()

Oleh: Bambang PS Brodjonegoro,

Guru Besar dan Dekan FEUI

http://news.id.msn.com/business/okez...mentid=2034503
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Old January 16th, 2009, 11:22 AM   #11
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BUSINESS: Investment growth to hit double-digits


Despite the global economic downturn, the estimated realized direct investment in Indonesia may still reach double-digits this year spurred by incentives and the stimulus packages designed by the government, the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) says.

“Investment might grow by double digits, at between 10 and 11 percent with (the planned) incentives, stimulus packages and simplification,” BKPM chairman M. Lutfi said in a discussion at the Regional Representatives Council (DPD) Monday.

Lutfi said investment last year grew by about 15.5 percent from 2007. Indonesia secured US$17 billion in investment last year, the highest in Southeast Asia, leaving Singapore behind with $12 billion, he said.


The government is providing about Rp 12.5 trillion of stimulus in the form of waived value added tax to help industries coping with the global economic slowdown. The amount will be increased by Rp 38 trillion later in the year, taken from undisbursed funds transferred on from the 2008 state budget.

Analysts have said exports and investment will be the hardest hit by the global economic downturn.

Lutfi said these stimulus measures would provide some leeway for businesses to make investments. The stimulus will only be given to businesses engaging in infrastructure, the energy sector and manufacturing.

He said in addition to waived value added tax, a good investment climate would also help support investment in the country. “However, what’s most important is the government’s commitment to make the country (an economic hub) as a half-processed goods producer.”

However private sector business leaders said BPKM was too optimistic in expecting investment to grow by between 10 percent and 11 percent amid the adverse global economic conditions.

“It seems it is unrealistic to expect private investment (to reach) such a high growth target.

Even government’s investment might not be able to reach the target considering slow spending, and foreign investment will reduce due to the (global financial) crisis,” said Bambang Soesatyo, head of the fiscal and monetary committee at the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin).

He said the stimulus would only raise the production capacity of domestic industries slightly, but was still far too inadequate to create new investment.

“There are many obstacles for local investors. Interest rates are still high and liquidity is still dried up,” he added.

Bambang also said it would be a difficult task for the government to raise people’s purchasing power amid the global economic slowdown.

He added that it will be useless if businesses raise their production capacity but people are gradually losing their purchasing power.

Indonesia’s economy is about 70 percent driven by domestic consumption, according to the government. Investment only accounts for about 15 percent of economic growth.

The government is still expecting growth of between 4.5 and 5.5 percent this year, down from the estimated 6.1 percent in 2008.
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Old January 16th, 2009, 03:25 PM   #12
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Indonesian Bonds to Return 30 Percent, Rupiah to Gain, ING Says


Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s local-currency bonds and the rupiah may advance in 2009 as investors seek higher yields because of increasing risk appetite, according to ING Groep NV.

The yield on the government’s 10-year bond will fall 2.9 percentage points to 9.25 percent by Dec. 31 as Bank Indonesia lowers the benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a point, Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of Asia research at the largest Dutch financial services company, said in an interview today.

“Globally we’ll be seeing economies in recovery,” Condon said. “At that point, the intense risk aversion that has characterized the last quarter and beginning of this year will dissipate and people will be looking more for returns and Indonesia will be an attractive destination.”

The bonds would give investors a return of 30 percent in 2009 should Condon’s yield forecast prove accurate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. HSBC Holdings Plc’s index of Indonesian local-currency debt shows the securities have handed investors a profit in six of the past seven years, with the best returns of 29.5 percent in 2006 and 59 percent in 2002.

Indonesia’s 9 percent 10-year bonds maturing in September 2008 yielded 12.16 percent, according to midday prices at the Inter Dealer market Association. The last time the rate fell as low as 9.25 percent was in November 2007.

Rupiah to Strengthen


The central bank cut it benchmark interest rate for a second month in January, to 8.75 percent, to help revive economic growth. Bank Indonesia will reduce the policy rate to 8 percent by year- end, Condon said.

“There’s plenty of liquidity against the backdrop of increasing investor confidence in the country, both domestic and foreign,” Condon said. “There are idle funds which investors can take and put to work.”

Indonesia’s rupiah will also strengthen as growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy beats some other countries in the region, according to Condon.

The rupiah will advance 16 percent to 9,500 per dollar by the end of the fourth quarter, he said, more bullish than the median estimate of 10,940 among 20 finance firms surveyed by Bloomberg News. The currency traded at 11,106 as of 12:36 p.m. in Jakarta. The rupiah slumped 13.8 percent last year, Asia’s third- worst performing currency excluding the yen.

Indonesia’s $433 billion economy will expand 4.5 percent in 2009, Condon predicts. The government said gross domestic product increased 6 percent in 2008. Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand all entered a recession.

Inflation will slow to between 5 percent and 7 percent by the end of the year, from 11.06 percent in December, Condon forecast.

Investors “will be seeing that inflation is falling and the economy is not doing that badly,” he said. Indonesia “was Asia’s third-fastest growing economy last year.”
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Old January 17th, 2009, 04:47 PM   #13
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Saturday, January 17, 2009
THE HIGHEST in SOUTHEAST ASIA



Yes, Indonesia succesfully attracted $17 billion in foreign investment, in 2008, outperformed Singapore which ranked safely in #2 with $12 billion. Official said that Foreign Direct Investment is very likely to grow 11% in 2009 due to government's fiscal stimulus package in 2009.



Infrastructure, the key factor in economic growth will also be massively developed this year, and Stream-Powered 10,000 MW will be ready soon. This two key essentials will help indonesia to boost the economy amid global slowdown, and to maintain its GDP growth above 6%. Hey, Indonesia's economic growth in 2008 was 6.2 %, still the highest in the region.
I think, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand, will be the key player in the future to attract more investors.

http://akhyari.blogspot.com/2009/01/...east-asia.html

Sorry kalo ngutip dari blog :P
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Old January 17th, 2009, 04:50 PM   #14
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g ga yakin....apalagi dari blog orang dan ga ada source nya. COba dibeberkan data2 perbandingan dari smua negara SEA. Kok g ragu kalo Vietnam ada di bawah kita..
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Old January 17th, 2009, 06:21 PM   #15
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Itu dari akhyaree ...

Dia itu blogger, SSC Member, dan juga kaskuser .... semua postingan dia rata2 positive thinking (banget ... ). tapi terlalu positive thinking tanpa menjadi realistis juga gak bagus ;P~

Dari tahun 2006 aku gabung ke SSC, udah banyak banget aku baca proyek2 pemerintah yang wah dan wow keren .... dan memang gak semuanya terealisasi (bahkan banyak yang cuman bertahan di tahapan wacana). Berlama-lama di SSC dulu, aku sampe die-hard banget mempertahankan nama Indonesia di forum internasional. Sampe, I finally realisez... Was I that stupid??? Unless, sesuatu itu memang benar dan arguable hehehe

Itu aku loh yang gabung di sini October 2006. Gimana kalau David??? Alvin ??? yang memang udah sesepuh hehehe / ..
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Old January 17th, 2009, 07:00 PM   #16
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I know haha I feel that too... when I was in Sg I felt (somehow) Indonesia was so precious..maybe because I missed it and the posting of Indonesia pics in the ISH thread opened my eyes.... but after staying here (in Indo) and looking at my past post.. I felt kinda embarassed

it seems that what makes this forum so positive is the gleaming projects posted on the U/c subforum which just cover up the flaws since projects look like the symbol of wealth and prosperity...
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Old January 18th, 2009, 06:23 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AceN View Post
g ga yakin....apalagi dari blog orang dan ga ada source nya. COba dibeberkan data2 perbandingan dari smua negara SEA. Kok g ragu kalo Vietnam ada di bawah kita..
Ada beritanya di Jakarta Post dan sourcenya dari BKPM. Itu article Jakarta Postnya juga ada di thread ini (post #11). Setelah aku baca baca lagi, angka $17 billion itu untuk actual FDI, uang yg sudah masuk, dimana kalo menurut article yg satu lagi Vietnam memprediksi angka $11 billion buat actual FDI 2008 (perkiraan ini dibuat di bulan Okt 2008). Kalo ada yg pernah denger FDI Vietnam sampai berpuluh2 billion dollar, itu angka pledged FDI, jadi masih cuman berbentuk komitmen. Kalau aku sih lebih 'percaya' liat uang yg sudah masuk, bukan gembar gembor doang.

http://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news...-432-2008.html

Yg namanya statistik memang gitu, data2nya boleh objektif tapi ceritanya pasti subjektif. Kalo parameternya dirubah ya lain lagi ceritanya. (misalnya FDI diukur pakai angka pledged amount, bisa jadi kita urutan bontot).

Rata2 kita orang juga lumayan positive thinking, makanya pada ngumpul disini. Menurutku itu bagus kok, asal jgn jadi buta. Di luar kan banyak laporan2 atau comment2 yg berbau negative, jadi butuh org2 yg positive thinking untuk ngimbangin dong.
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Old January 18th, 2009, 11:47 AM   #18
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Ekspor Produk Sawit RI Naik Tajam


JAKARTA--MI: Ekspor produk sawit Indonesia yang terdiri atas CPO dan produk minyak sawit lainnya ke negara-negara Uni Eropa meningkat dalam tajam dua tahun terakhir ini justru saat Indonesia dituding sebagai negara perusak hutan tropis.

Direktur Eksekutif Greenomics Indonesia Indonesia, Elfian Effendi di Jakarta, Minggu(18/1) mengatakan, berdasarkan Departemen Perindustrian (2006) memperlihatkan ekspor CPO ke 10 negara Uni Eropa pada Januari-Agustus 2008 mencapai 479,43 juta dolar AS dengan volume 471 ribu ton naik tajam dibanding periode sama tahun 2007 sebesar 320,35 juta dolar dengan volume 444 ribu ton.

Ekspor produk sawit tersebut dilakukan ke 15 negara Uni Eropa seperti Belanda, Jerman, Perancis, Inggris, Italia, Spanyol dan Denmark, katanya.

Peningkatan ekspor itu, menurut dia, terjadi ketika justru Indonesia menerima berbagai kecaman dan tudingan sebagai negara perusak hutan tropis dan penyumbang emisi karbon terbesar di dunia dari praktik pembukaan lahan hutan untuk sawit.

Namun pada kenyataannya, justru negara-negara maju tersebut menikmati produk dari hasil pembukaan lahan sawit Indonesia tersebut.

Sikap ini menunjukkan tingginya standar ganda negara-negara maju tersebut terhadap industri berbasis lahan dan hutan di Indonesia, katanya.

Sedangkan ekspor produk-produk minyak sawit lainya selain CPO ke 15 negara Uni Eropa pada delapan bulan tahun 2008 mencapai 1,33 miliar dolar sementara pada periode sama tahun 2007 nilai transaksinya mencapai 580,33 juta dolar .
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Old January 18th, 2009, 02:08 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rilham2new View Post
Itu dari akhyaree ...

Dia itu blogger, SSC Member, dan juga kaskuser .... semua postingan dia rata2 positive thinking (banget ... ). tapi terlalu positive thinking tanpa menjadi realistis juga gak bagus ;P~

Dari tahun 2006 aku gabung ke SSC, udah banyak banget aku baca proyek2 pemerintah yang wah dan wow keren .... dan memang gak semuanya terealisasi (bahkan banyak yang cuman bertahan di tahapan wacana). Berlama-lama di SSC dulu, aku sampe die-hard banget mempertahankan nama Indonesia di forum internasional. Sampe, I finally realisez... Was I that stupid??? Unless, sesuatu itu memang benar dan arguable hehehe

Itu aku loh yang gabung di sini October 2006. Gimana kalau David??? Alvin ??? yang memang udah sesepuh hehehe / ..
Hahahaha .... Indonesia ... Negara Wacana ...
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Old January 19th, 2009, 07:17 AM   #20
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Yudhoyono govt launches massive price stabilisation exercise in Indonesia


JAKARTA: The Yudhoyono government in Indonesia has launched a massive price stabilization exercise ahead of elections this year. Besides slashing fuel prices and electricity tariffs, lower-income Indonesians have been promised cheaper food prices.

It is the third time in about a month that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has convened a special ministerial meeting to discuss fuel price cuts. Two earlier reductions in December last year failed to trigger a similar fall in basic commodity prices.

The Indonesian leader justifies that the fuel price cuts are meant to sustain the people's purchasing power and reduce lay-offs as the economy slows down.

With parliamentary elections coming up in April and his re-election bid in July, the Indonesian leader is certainly pressed for time.

He said: "We hope with the reduction in price for electricity, especially for certain industries, will have an impact on retail prices sold to the general public."

Subsidized petrol prices have been cut by 25 per cent and diesel by 18 per cent despite criticism that such a policy is wasteful because it does not just benefit poor Indonesians.

Lower prices at gas stations means cheaper public transport, which is expected to cost 10 per cent less.

The Yudhoyono administration has also intervened in the market to ensure that basic commodities such as cooking oil, milk, meat and medicines remain affordable to lower-income Indonesians.

Controlling the prices of basic commodities goes beyond just an economic issue.

Former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who will likely be President Yudhoyono's main challenger in July's election, has made cheaper basic commodities her key campaign strategy.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has been struggling with double-digit inflation in the last couple of years.

However, Jakarta is confident that in this election year, its inflation rate will be halved from last year's 11 per cent.
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