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Old July 8th, 2010, 08:45 AM   #1
abesha
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Ecomonic Growth Thread | "Ethiopia middle income in 10 years time" - UNCTAD


Ethiopia’s GDP growth to lead Africa by 2011 - AFDB


Thursday 8 July 2010

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By Tesfa-Alem Tekle

July 7, 2010 (ADDIS ABABA) – Ethiopia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to grow by 10.9 percent in 2010-2011, putting the horn Africa’s nation in the lead across continent, the African Development Bank (AFDB) said.

The Bank in its 2011 report forecast indicated that, Ethiopia will be in a leading development position by 10.9 percent, followed by Angola and Uganda with expected 7.9 and 7.9 percent growth respectively.

Ethiopia is one of the fast growing non-oil economies and forerunners that achieved double digit growth in the period 3003/2004, it said.

The report said Ethiopia is expected to fulfill the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2015.

Accordingly, Ethiopia, Libya and Tunisia are listed among the leading countries to meet the target of MDGs.

It said the Ethiopia has given priority to education, health, agriculture roads for decade and has achieved impressive results.

Economic Development and NEPAD Division Director in UNECA Emmanule Nnadozie said the report is widely recognized and assesses the social and administrative progress of the continent.

The report recalled that Ethiopia ranked first in its overall GDP in 2009 by registering 9.9 percent growth followed by Congo and Malawi registered 7.6 percent and seven percent respectively.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35599

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Old July 9th, 2010, 05:37 AM   #2
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Wow. With achievements like this and some political reformation, I might just become a Meles supporter......,naah.lol

But I'm glad. I understand what his ambitions are, and they're commendable in some ways. He is trying to emulate South Korea during its "developmental state" era where for about 30 yrs they lived under a dictatorship whose sole purpose was to engineer a state led accelerated economic growth, in which they more or less succeeded. Then came full fledged democracy.

That being said, what he seems to be neglecting is one major factor. Korea is a homogeneous state so the dictator and his generals don't come from a tiny minority group. If that had been the case, then perhaps South Korea may have turned out differently.
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Old July 10th, 2010, 01:47 AM   #3
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Wow. With achievements like this and some political reformation, I might just become a Meles supporter......,naah.lol.
I would to you, if you are a re-born Zenawi's supporter. Trust me, there is nothing wrong with that. I used to hate him...but not any more man! He is doing a very good job.

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But I'm glad. I understand what his ambitions are, and they're commendable in some ways. He is trying to emulate South Korea during its "developmental state" era where for about 30 yrs they lived under a dictatorship whose sole purpose was to engineer a state led accelerated economic growth, in which they more or less succeeded. Then came full fledged democracy.
Don't forget also - that dictatorship used to be pumped up with immense US dollars - virtually, after the Korean war, USA rebuilt Korea from scratch. Same goes with Japan too. In the 1950s, When King Haile Selasie approached the United Sates to get a loan with full credit (i.e. to built the Assab oil Refinery), the USA rejected him that's why that Refinery built by the Russians. USA never interested (similar to Korea, Japan & Europe) building infrastructures in Ethiopia except giving the King leftover weapons - remember how HaileSelise was a close ally to UK and USA during WWII. Who gives a toss for Africa anyways?.....My point is, a country like South Korea should be thankful and greatful for what the United States did for them.

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Korea is a homogeneous state so the dictator and his generals don't come from a tiny minority group. If that had been the case, then perhaps South Korea may have turned out differently.
Homogeneous doesn't guarantee you or deliver a stable prosperous state. Look at Somalia. 99.9% homogeneous in all aspect -religion, culture, language..etc..but a good reference for a failed state. It all depends how you are managing your multi ethnic diverse society. Coming back to Ethiopia, accepting and recognizing the existence of minorities is one step to go forward. Let them to manage their own life - culture, language....& minimize centre power as much as possible. At least on paper, Zenawi's Woyane/EPRDF is offering such an alternative. Is Woyane's option is destructive? Well, 20 years lapsed - I can't see Tigray Republic being materializing and flourishing. Where is it? Tigray is stil dusty (un fair to be honest). What am observing, rather, is some sort of nation building in all part of the country. A true tyrant doesn't care building 13 universities in just 10 years - does it ? / or does it bother trying to connect one region to the other with roads?.........20 years lapsed, in coming refugees are up (2000 per month from Eritrea alone), while our refugee export is down dramatically - something good must be happening in the country ----- if you want to leave the country, for example, you don't have to beg or bribe or find a Zemed at the immigration to get a passport - isn't that what we need????......

Ethnic federalism there or not - It doesn't matter. The key is, keep the people busy with market oriented economy.

Bless Zenawi!
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Old July 10th, 2010, 11:59 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Ahadu View Post
I would to you, if you are a re-born Zenawi's supporter. Trust me, there is nothing wrong with that. I used to hate him...but not any more man! He is doing a very good job.
That's the problem with being a zealot. Whichever side of the divide you are, you are a colossal sense of zealotry. You are thus incapable of having a nuanced, reasonable stance. When you view everything from the perspective of allegiance, fanatic commitment to a person or idea, or some messy combination of the two, your objectivity and credibility are out the window.


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Don't forget also - that dictatorship used to be pumped up with immense US dollars - virtually, after the Korean war, USA rebuilt Korea from scratch. Same goes with Japan too. In the 1950s, When King Haile Selasie approached the United Sates to get a loan with full credit (i.e. to built the Assab oil Refinery), the USA rejected him that's why that Refinery built by the Russians. USA never interested (similar to Korea, Japan & Europe) building infrastructures in Ethiopia except giving the King leftover weapons - remember how HaileSelise was a close ally to UK and USA during WWII. Who gives a toss for Africa anyways?.....My point is, a country like South Korea should be thankful and greatful for what the United States did for them.
USA didn't rebuild Japan, Korea, Germany or most of Europe for that matter out of benevolence. It was in their strategic interest as they were in danger of being influenced by the Soviet Union. Having a stable prosperous nation meant that it was no longer susceptible to their influence.

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Homogeneous doesn't guarantee you or deliver a stable prosperous state. Look at Somalia. 99.9% homogeneous in all aspect -religion, culture, language..etc..but a good reference for a failed state. It all depends how you are managing your multi ethnic diverse society. Coming back to Ethiopia, accepting and recognizing the existence of minorities is one step to go forward. Let them to manage their own life - culture, language....& minimize centre power as much as possible. At least on paper, Zenawi's Woyane/EPRDF is offering such an alternative. Is Woyane's option is destructive? Well, 20 years lapsed - I can't see Tigray Republic being materializing and flourishing. Where is it? Tigray is stil dusty (un fair to be honest). What am observing, rather, is some sort of nation building in all part of the country. A true tyrant doesn't care building 13 universities in just 10 years - does it ? / or does it bother trying to connect one region to the other with roads?.........20 years lapsed, in coming refugees are up (2000 per month from Eritrea alone), while our refugee export is down dramatically - something good must be happening in the country ----- if you want to leave the country, for example, you don't have to beg or bribe or find a Zemed at the immigration to get a passport - isn't that what we need????......
This is a non-sequitur. What happened in Somalia has nothing to do with homogeneity. Warlordism, and advocates and benefactors of anarchy were instrumental in exploiting the situation. But even then, the truth of the matter is, Somalia is not homogeneous in the minds of the Somalis. Clan differences were and are major problems. As far as the relationships between the people within the country is concerned, they are "different" from one another and thus not "homogeneous."

Your response therefore isn't really an adequate response to my point. The fact remains that, whether it's culturally, regionally or perceptively, the people running things are not reflective of the general population in the mind of the average person. While for now, because of other exigent circumstances, they will not encounter that great of a backlash, they will as soon as enough people have achieved economical comfort, enough to deal with matters of less urgency.

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Ethnic federalism there or not - It doesn't matter. The key is, keep the people busy with market oriented economy.

Bless Zenawi!
You see what I mean. This is the problem of zealotry. It makes for a highly unprincipled person.
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Old January 13th, 2011, 12:44 AM   #5
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Ethiopia to be third fastest growing economy in the world in 2011-15

Exciting times ahead for Ethiopia, and Africa as a whole. At last, we're coming out of the deep, dark hole we were in!

"The lion kings?
Africa is now one of the world’s fastest-growing regions
A more hopeful continentJan 6th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION


MUCH has been written about the rise of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the shift in economic power eastward as Asia outruns the rest of the world. But the surprising success story of the past decade lies elsewhere. An analysis by The Economist finds that over the ten years to 2010, no fewer than six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies were in sub-Saharan Africa (see table).

The only BRIC country to make the top ten was China, in second place behind Angola. The other five African sprinters were Nigeria, Ethiopia, Chad, Mozambique and Rwanda, all with annual growth rates of around 8% or more. During the two decades to 2000 only one African economy (Uganda) made the top ten, against nine from Asia. On IMF forecasts Africa will grab seven of the top ten places over the next five years (our ranking excludes countries with a population of less than 10m as well as Iraq and Afghanistan, which could both rebound strongly in the years ahead).

Over the past decade sub-Saharan Africa’s real GDP growth rate jumped to an annual average of 5.7%, up from only 2.4% over the previous two decades. That beat Latin America’s 3.3%, but not emerging Asia’s 7.9%. Asia’s stunning performance largely reflects the vast weight of China and India; most economies saw much slower growth, such as 4% in South Korea and Taiwan. The simple unweighted average of countries’ growth rates was virtually identical in Africa and Asia.

Over the next five years Africa’s is likely to take the lead (see chart). In other words, the average African economy will outpace its Asian counterpart. Looking even farther ahead, Standard Chartered forecasts that Africa’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of 7% over the next 20 years, slightly faster than China’s.

So it should, of course. Poorer economies have more potential for catch-up growth. The scandal was that Africa’s real GDP per head fell for so many years. In 1980 Africans had an average income per head almost four times bigger than the Chinese. Today the Chinese are more than three times richer. Africa’s rapidly rising population still dampens its growth in real income per head but that, too, has risen by an annual rate of 3% since 2000—almost twice as fast as the global average.

For Western firms Africa’s economy still looks tiny, accounting for only 2% of world output. Emerging Asia’s is ten times larger. But Africa’s share is rising, not only because of brisker growth but because GDP has been seriously understated in many economies. In November the size of Ghana’s economy was revised up by a massive 75% after government statisticians improved their data and added in industries such as telecoms. Other countries are likely to revise their GDP levels and growth rates upward over the coming years.

Africa’s changing fortunes have largely been driven by China’s surging demand for raw materials and higher commodity prices, but other factors have also counted. Africa has benefited from big inflows of foreign direct investment, especially from China, as well as foreign aid and debt relief. Urbanisation and rising incomes have fuelled faster growth in domestic demand.

Economic management has improved, too. Government revenues have been bolstered in recent years by high commodity prices and rapid growth. But instead of going on a spending spree as in the past some governments, such as Tanzania’s and Mozambique’s, have put money aside, cushioning their economies in the recession.

Some ambled through the decade rather than sprinted. Africa’s biggest economy by far, South Africa, is one of its laggards: it posted average annual growth of only 3.5% over the past decade. Indeed, it may be overtaken in size by Nigeria within ten to 15 years if Nigeria’s bold banking reforms are extended to the power and the oil industries. But the big challenge for all mineral exporters will be providing jobs for a population expected to grow by 50% between 2010 and 2030.

Commodity-driven growth does not generate many jobs; and commodity prices could fall. So governments need to diversify their economies. There are some glimmers. Countries such as Uganda and Kenya that do not depend on mineral exports are also growing faster than before, partly because they have increased manufacturing exports. Standard Chartered thinks that Africa could become a significant manufacturing centre.

Formidable obstacles to Africa’s continued progress loom, among them political instability, the weak rule of law, chronic corruption, infrastructure bottlenecks, and poor health and education. Without reforms, Africa will not be able to sustain faster growth. But its lion economies are earning a place alongside Asia’s tigers."
http://www.economist.com/node/178533...ry_id=17853324
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Old January 13th, 2011, 01:00 AM   #6
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Great news
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Old January 20th, 2011, 05:57 PM   #7
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hopefully we continue to sustain this growth and not move along in cycles like some countries which i won't mention. I am waiting to see the results of how it will grow in the first trimester of 2011.

Last edited by Liones; January 20th, 2011 at 06:10 PM.
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Old January 20th, 2011, 06:02 PM   #8
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hopefully we continue to sustain this growth and no move along in cycles like some countries which i won't mention. I am waiting to see the results of how it will grow in the first trimester of 2011.
Good for Ethiopia.You deserve it!What else can I say?
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Old October 20th, 2011, 10:12 PM   #9
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Ethiopia’s Imperfect Growth Miracle

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Ethiopia―Africa’s sixth-largest economy and second-most populous nation, home to 90 million people―has recently attracted global attention because of its double-digit economic growth. According to the Economist, Ethiopia was one of the world’s five fastest-growing economies in 2010. Despite the country’s remarkable growth performance in recent years, however, its record in promoting socio-economic development is mixed. Ethiopia has made significant strides in reducing rural poverty, improving life expectancy, and raising education levels. But these gains have come with rising urban income inequality and surging inflation. It is also not clear whether the services sector, which has accounted for nearly half of GDP growth since 2004, can continue to serve as an economic engine.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 02:09 AM   #10
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A little less government and a bit more of the private sector won't hurt, I think.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 02:13 AM   #11
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Agree 100X.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 04:36 AM   #12
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A little less government and a bit more of the private sector won't hurt, I think.
By the look of it, the government is focussing in setting up key infrastructures i.e. road, energy, education, health etc. while off loading government owned business (eg factories, hotels etc.).

Unfortunately, people in the private sector are not creative enough. Out of the 80 million heads, No one is interested to go into farming and deliver us with plenty of free-range eggs at least.....absurd if you complain & blame the government (Azeb Gola or Lady Gaga) for the untouchable price of egg....if you know what I mean.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 05:28 AM   #13
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By the look of it, the government is focussing in setting up key infrastructures i.e. road, energy, education, health etc.while off loading government owned business (eg factories, hotels etc.).
All admirable things, but the inflation rate seems to suggest that they're over stretching don't you think?

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Unfortunately, people in the private sector are not creative enough. Out of the 80 million heads, No one is interested to go into farming and deliver us with plenty of free-range eggs at least.....absurd if you complain & blame the government (Azeb Gola or Lady Gaga) for the untouchable price of egg....if you know what I mean.
Ethiopia has the lowest mobile penetration rate in Africa (ironic for a country that was the first to introduce the telephone in the continent) and a few hundred banks for 85 million people, unwilling to give credit and loans- it is only understandable that the private sector is so risk averse.

Last edited by DiogenesClub; December 6th, 2011 at 11:54 PM.
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Old October 21st, 2011, 11:24 AM   #14
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Errrm, but when did Ethiopia become 6th largest African Economy??
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Old October 21st, 2011, 02:05 PM   #15
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By the look of it, the government is focussing in setting up key infrastructures i.e. road, energy, education, health etc. while off loading government owned business (eg factories, hotels etc.).

Unfortunately, people in the private sector are not creative enough. Out of the 80 million heads, No one is interested to go into farming and deliver us with plenty of free-range eggs at least.....absurd if you complain & blame the government (Azeb Gola or Lady Gaga) for the untouchable price of egg....if you know what I mean.
Why wouldn't the government be blamed...THEY OWN THE LAND!
Why would Ethiopians plow land that the government could seize at any moment.
At least foreigner investors have their own governments that will put pressure on the Ethiopian government if they try to seize the land back. Ethiopians can't do that (for now at least).
Go read the Ethiopian constitution that they wrote!
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Old October 21st, 2011, 03:55 PM   #16
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Why wouldn't the government be blamed...THEY OWN THE LAND!
Why would Ethiopians plow land that the government could seize at any moment.
At least foreigner investors have their own governments that will put pressure on the Ethiopian government if they try to seize the land back. Ethiopians can't do that (for now at least).
Go read the Ethiopian constitution that they wrote!
It shouldn't matter if the government own the land, contracts and leases exists for a reason. We all know that the Woyanes do as they want though.
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Old October 28th, 2011, 10:17 AM   #17
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Be grateful you are not Ghana where land is owned by dishonest chiefs which makes large land deals very difficult. Whats the inflation rate in Ethiopia?
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Old October 28th, 2011, 01:48 PM   #18
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Around 40% (!)
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Old October 28th, 2011, 02:05 PM   #19
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A little less government and a bit more of the private sector won't hurt, I think.
I think that's the problem right there.

Good article Yoniii.
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Old October 28th, 2011, 05:07 PM   #20
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Why wouldn't the government be blamed...THEY OWN THE LAND!
Why would Ethiopians plow land that the government could seize at any moment.
Your statement doesn't make a lot of sense. The same land policy applies to land in the city, and there you see people tripping over each other to lease land from the government. Ethiopian investors pay 10 and 20 times the government's asking price for land in the cities. I don't think the land policy is the problem. I think it's more to do with lack of infrastructure in a lot of areas, and the high investment needed initially to develop farms. Plus you can always expect 100% loss on your first couple of crops, like what happened to Karaturi in Gambella ... they lost 15million$ worth of crop due to flooding (or so they claim). No Ethiopian investor can take that kind of hit and survive to tell the story.
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