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Old February 13th, 2017, 07:36 PM   #14521
DaeguDuke
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If the pattern were reversed I would still be saying that there wasn't any clear trend and the mathematics behind the statistical significance of a linear model still say it might as well be random points picked by rolling an 8 sided die. You can call it whatever you want, the R-squared doesn't care. I'd also say that we should be concerned about blips where the gap was repeatedly disappearing. Repeated instances where support drops is something that I would investigate, not just write off with a shrug and a claim that support would rise back better and stronger than ever..

If you want to see a trend in something that is obviously (and can be mathematically proven to be) vaguely hovering around the margin of error of polls, then go ahead, you're reading into this what you want to read. I've repeatedly said that it is too close to call, and I'd be happier if Brexit weren't happening and forcing another vote. If you're confident that people will vote No again knowing what kind of Brexit we're heading towards then you'll have no problem with another referendum. Take a seat, put your feet up, just wait to be proven right.
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Old February 13th, 2017, 09:52 PM   #14522
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaeguDuke View Post
If the pattern were reversed I would still be saying that there wasn't any clear trend and the mathematics behind the statistical significance of a linear model still say it might as well be random points picked by rolling an 8 sided die. You can call it whatever you want, the R-squared doesn't care. I'd also say that we should be concerned about blips where the gap was repeatedly disappearing. Repeated instances where support drops is something that I would investigate, not just write off with a shrug and a claim that support would rise back better and stronger than ever..

If you want to see a trend in something that is obviously (and can be mathematically proven to be) vaguely hovering around the margin of error of polls, then go ahead, you're reading into this what you want to read. I've repeatedly said that it is too close to call, and I'd be happier if Brexit weren't happening and forcing another vote. If you're confident that people will vote No again knowing what kind of Brexit we're heading towards then you'll have no problem with another referendum. Take a seat, put your feet up, just wait to be proven right.
More smoke and mirrors.

You know perfectly well all I've done is laid out transparent stats and observed a trend. Indeed I've said at least a couple of times who knows if it will continue.

All this started with a response to some very deliberately stretched poll claims from you to claim the gap was 6% despite the previous 6 polls being 6, 8,11,8,7,8.

You then claimed you did this and I quote you...

Quote:
If you take the last dozen polls, exclude those that ask non-standard questions and that miss out 16-17yos, then the average is just over 6%.
By excluding 2 non standard polls and choosing the last 12, you neatly manage to go back 7 months to include the three 'week after' EU ref polls that swung to yes into your average. Poll of Polls don't generally go back that far or incl that many and I suspect would also have incl the non 16-17 poll as the numbers in that sample bracket are very small and extremely unlikely to materially affect the poll results. The non standard indy Q poll was widely rubbished by those who didn't like its findings but the next poll by the same company which reinstated a standard Q got a very similar result.

The fact that you had your own bespoke 'go back to the point that most helps and ignore anything in between I possibly can' methodology all worked out and ready to hand to weave the 6% claim into your post kind of contradicts your claim that you don't place much store by polls or whatnot...

....and it makes it difficult to take your claim you wouldn't be making noise about trends towards indy support if the pattern were reversed without a big pinch of salt.
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Old February 14th, 2017, 03:50 PM   #14523
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Umm.. I just used the most recent ones on the wikipedia page, excluding the ones that the wiki had noted were using non-standard questions (and so skewing results).

Feel free to complain to the editors there.

I'm sorry, but "oh, there's a trend of growing support if you ignore all the times support disappears" is a dumbass "trend". It's taken you a week to come up with something that statistical analysis says isn't a trend.

What P-value did you get?
Did you use a cyclical or linear model?

Oh, wait, you didn't, you're eyeballing and guessing, and pretending that trumps any actual analysis, which is why I'm saying it's BS.



Wasn't going to bother, but I took 5 min to do this when you brought it up, thought you'd be able to get there on your own but you've constantly failed. Oh, I updated it with the last poll that has people crowing that there's been another swing towards Indy, I'm skeptical but included it (along with a bunch which are known to be dodgy).
Error of the gradient (direction of movement to you) is greater than the gradient itself, Pearson R says that there's no firm relation between the date of the poll and the gap, you can eyeball that trend all you like but it is real or statistically significant (see, bunch of stuff that's unrelated but correlates) and is easily within the margins of error for polls. Data pulled directly from the opionionbee site you linked to.

Go ahead though, I honestly couldn't care if you see a trend, or if you believe in the toothfairy.

Last edited by DaeguDuke; February 14th, 2017 at 04:25 PM.
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Old February 17th, 2017, 01:59 PM   #14524
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Labour have been banging on about the council tax freeze for a decade, now that it's been stopped Labour councils are volunteering to continue. Couldn't make this up. As inflation is currently 1.8%, and forecast to hit nearly 3%, why purposefully cut your finances? Oh, because council elections are coming up. I forgot how much appearances matter to Labour, I'm guessing this is their last-ditch attempt to appeal to the electorate, my money is on them not being in charge to deal with any mess they make.

Short term politics at its finest.
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Old February 17th, 2017, 02:49 PM   #14525
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Yes, that and if they lose the election then the other side gets to suffer the pain of applying the cuts!
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Old February 17th, 2017, 05:29 PM   #14526
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It's actually 3 of the 4 majority Labour councils. The blatant hypocrisy of it, maybe they've given up holding onto Glasgow?
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Old February 17th, 2017, 07:10 PM   #14527
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Yup, here's one of the councils going for a freeze this year saying less than a year ago that the ability to raise it would have alleviated a good deal of the pain they were feeling.

Curious change of heart...
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Old February 18th, 2017, 09:37 AM   #14528
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What are they playing at? I don't see the strategic logic at all.
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Old February 18th, 2017, 09:37 AM   #14529
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quirinalian View Post
Indeed, and I think your average elector is getting a bit bored by it all. While I'll agree the publicity has pushed it up the political agenda, the EU was never a priority interest for voters in polls - typically it was health, education, crime and the likes.

Well, maybe, there's a first time for everything, I guess.

Better Together doesn't exist, mate. It hasn't operated since September 2014 and was finally dissolved in May 2016.

If independence has nothing to do with Nicola Sturgeon's political standing and the criteria for holding a second one in the SNP's manifesto has been satisfied then the obvious question arises - why hasn't Nicola Sturgeon called for one? I realise the internet warriors are coating themselves in woad at the prospect, but I suspect they don't really speak for the First Minister.

As for the NHS being "found out" - a bizarre suggestion given that the SNP were saying before the referendum that "moves towards wholesale privatisation of the health service in England threaten the funding available for Scotland's NHS".

Not only was the part about "wholesale privatisation" a ludicrous nonsense, it simply hasn't happened - NHS funding is increasing above inflation in every year of this parliament. Indeed, it was the Scottish Government that failed to increase NHS funding in line with inflation in the past - not the UK Government. Do you accept that this was a lie?

I get the feeling you don't have a good word to say about anyone who disagrees with you on the constitutional question and their politics. Ruth Davidson was elected on the list on one occasion - and in a constituency on one occasion. I remind you that Nicola Sturgeon was elected via the list more times than Ruth Davidson.
Ruth Davidson stood on a platform in 2014 campaigning for Scotland to 'remain in the EU and the single market', you lot put it on the agenda. The Tories then had a referendum to satisfy their backbenchers/ukip, now it is so far up the agenda a certain ex-PM is back out saying Scotland now has a credible independence case because of it. The Scotland Office/UKGov are at work due to warnings that a second independence referendum is imminent. If some people are not taking seriously that the UK is on path to breakup, then they bloody should. Better Together will be back in business soon enough.

You roll out the same line on the NHS all the time, the Scottish NHS budget is the biggest it has ever been(Glasgow got a new super hospital). Tell me which NHS in the UK is doing the best, which ones are failing?

Quote:
Out of all the four nations, hospitals in Scotland seem to have fared the best.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-38853700
NHS funding in England might have increased marginally overall(above inflation) but spending per person is higher in Scotland(£2,160 to £2,057 in England). No point in crowing about a marginal increase in spending if the money is going to the wrong places, the system is failing.

The BMA (https://www.bma.org.uk/collective-vo...rs-in-nhs-care) confirm in that report that every year for the last five years, spending on privatisation within the health service has increased. It is not a lie, anything which the UK Gov does to the NHS has a knock on effect for the other 3 nations. I've also noticed the media talking about Guernsey a lot recently, trying to talk people into privatisation more and more(esp. BBC/Sky News).

Hey if it wasn't for PR, the Scottish Tories would have about 7 seats in Holyrood. So thank your lucky stars.

Last edited by anonymous_redrum; February 18th, 2017 at 12:57 PM.
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Old February 18th, 2017, 01:05 PM   #14530
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What are they playing at? I don't see the strategic logic at all.
Labour and strategy don't go together much these days.

You've got Kezia attacking the SNP for passing on Tory austerity, and now all Nicola has to do is point at the councils... "you want us to raise tax for local services, but your own councillors say they have enough money"
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