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Old December 1st, 2014, 05:16 AM   #1
Dariusb
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Which Sunbelt City To Make Biggest Transformation?

Which Sunbelt/Southeastern city in your opinion will make the biggest transformation in it's cityscape, population and overall feel in the coming years?
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Old December 1st, 2014, 10:22 AM   #2
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Miami.
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Old December 1st, 2014, 08:13 PM   #3
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Over what time frame?

In the next 5-10 years I'd say Miami or some smaller city where any change is noteworthy. 20 years and beyond I'll say Charlotte, due to growing roots in the financial sector and NC's push to strengthen ties with DC, both physically (rail/road) and politically.
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Old December 1st, 2014, 10:02 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by GunnerJacket View Post
Over what time frame?

In the next 5-10 years I'd say Miami or some smaller city where any change is noteworthy. 20 years and beyond I'll say Charlotte, due to growing roots in the financial sector and NC's push to strengthen ties with DC, both physically (rail/road) and politically.
In about 10 years or so like you said. Also, what mid sized city/cities do you see transforming in a big way?
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Old December 2nd, 2014, 01:04 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GunnerJacket View Post
Over what time frame?

In the next 5-10 years I'd say Miami or some smaller city where any change is noteworthy. 20 years and beyond I'll say Charlotte, due to growing roots in the financial sector and NC's push to strengthen ties with DC, both physically (rail/road) and politically.
Agreed 100%. I think we will see Charlotte continue to emerge as a economic power house, and because of the blank slate for development and the inability to annex anymore land, I think that will will continue to see rapid densification.
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Old December 2nd, 2014, 02:32 AM   #6
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Quote:
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Over what time frame?

In the next 5-10 years I'd say Miami or some smaller city where any change is noteworthy. 20 years and beyond I'll say Charlotte, due to growing roots in the financial sector and NC's push to strengthen ties with DC, both physically (rail/road) and politically.
We have a place in north central NC along the VA border north of Durham and Raleigh. If/when rail links to DC are made, the Carolina "Crescent" will be an extension of the Northeast / Mid-Atlantic corridor. As it is, we are just over 3 hours from our DC home by car and are hoping that the Virginia Rail Express will add service to Richmond and Petersburg which will put us an hour from the train to Union Station. I agree, I think Charlotte, at the center of the Crescent, will be among the cities most "transformed" in the Sunbelt -- but, I think Richmond -- if the VRE is expanded there, will surprise a lot of people.
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Old December 2nd, 2014, 02:59 AM   #7
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In about 10 years or so like you said. Also, what mid sized city/cities do you see transforming in a big way?
Well, pending certain ventures some names come to mind, like Richmond, Durham and Greenville.

To be more sure, though, I'd have to look at some annual real estate and employment charts. There are going to be certain areas like Commerce/Braselton, GA, that will receive a lot of 1st wave suburban growth that will change the context of places like Athens, meaning in terms of net change smaller cities will seem the most impacted. But whether or not it will resonate in terms of urban character depends on a lot of factors.

Savannah and Charleston will see more growth as they deepen their ports and the coasts (especially Hilton Head & Beaufort) become more popular.
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Old December 2nd, 2014, 11:38 AM   #8
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Raleigh/Triangle as long as the stupid state government doesn't set the state back 150 years.

Lynchburg/southeast Virginia.

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Old December 3rd, 2014, 09:11 PM   #9
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If you're truly talking about the "biggest" change it would have to be a smaller city where less change has a much larger impact. Cities like Atlanta, Miami, and even Charlotte already have large enough skylines that a 20 story building are two don't even show up on the radar, but in a city like Columbia or Birmingham or even Nashville to an extent they have a much larger impact.

It's really hard to pick out a smaller skyline that is likely to grow and change by huge amounts, but I would say that Raleigh has a good chance at being the winner here.
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Old December 4th, 2014, 01:39 PM   #10
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For a city of their size, I would have to go with either Austin or Nashville because they both seem to headed in the right direction at the moment, especially with all of the latest proposals coming down the pipeline.
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Old December 4th, 2014, 04:21 PM   #11
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I'd agree with Austin, but despite this forum's grouping Texas/Oklahoma aren't part of the southeast.
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Old December 4th, 2014, 05:53 PM   #12
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For a city of their size, I would have to go with either Austin or Nashville because they both seem to headed in the right direction at the moment, especially with all of the latest proposals coming down the pipeline.
If we are talking Density I'm going with Charlotte, Austin, Nashville and Raleigh. But I'd like to make my case for my hometown.

Despite Charlotte's tall buildings. I really think it's skyline is going to really change a lot as well as and most importantly, a change in density and breadth of the urban area.

This is because of one big factor that Nashville and Raleigh do not have, an expanding rail system. Charlottes Blue Line caused a quadrupling of the population in SouthEnd and Center City Charlotte has gone from 5,000 to 25,000 people since 2005. Charlotte's Blue line is now being expanded to the NoDa arts district (and beyond all the way to UNCC), which has a great urban downtown microcosm feel. NoDa is a very well established neighborhood already, however, the neighborhoods between, Belmont and Optimist Park, are struggling neighborhoods, ripe for development. These neighborhoods have a burgeoning Craft brewing scene, eclectic homes and apartment buildings, and are starting to see creative people move in already, 2 years before the opening of the light rail. These neighborhoods will have two light rail stops, and will be only 1 and 2 stops from downtown, respectively. They will BLOW UP!

Also, This year Charlotte has started to see the space between Uptown and Southend fill in, with a 17 floor office tower and several 5-10 floor apartment buildings in planning or under contruction. This is all because of the light rail.

Developers are also starting to understand that urban spaces should have urban retail, so companies are actively trying to reconfigure the ground level uses of their buildings. Independence Center in Charlotte and the Center City Marriott, both have plans to redo their ground floor with Retail. Bank of America Plaza, also has a plan to completely retrofit their lobby and open space to be a retail plaza. Add this in with the plans for 2 additional grocery stores, about 200,000 sq feet of extra retail between the two crescent projects, greystar, Skyhouse 1 & 2 + Grubb, Bofa, Embassy, Independence/Marriott, and others.

Don't forget all the over 12 fl buildings in the works.

Levine Midtown –*25 floors Apartments and Hotel.
Tryon Place –*27 floors Office and 25 floor Hotel and Apartment Tower, 50k retail, possible grocery store.
SkyHouse 1 and 2 –*2 24 floor Apartment buildings, with a grocery store and a 15-20 floor office tower.
Portman Plaza –*19 floor Office Tower
Mass Mutual/300 South Tryon 25 floor office Tower
Greystar Apartmens –*32 floor Apartments
Trinity Plaza –*17 floors Office
Crescent Stonewall –*625 units of apartments, 450 hotel rooms, 100k office, 75k retail. No Height known yet, likely multiple towers
AC Hotel Epicentre –*22 floors
Springhill Suites by Marriot –*18 floors.
Canopy by Hilton –*22 floors
College and 6th Apartment Tower –*36 floors
Grand Bohemian –*12-15 floors
Embassy Suites –*12 floors
Homewood Suites –*12-15 floors
plus many more...

Theres also a smattering of 5-12 floor proposals and under construction projects in 4 different urban neighborhoods.

The Skyline will be very different in 2017-18!

EDIT: Here is a handy dandy development we created at urban planet.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/ed...E.klI9U5bNYpnk
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Old December 4th, 2014, 10:34 PM   #13
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Much will be determined by the employment market there, and many pundits are predicting a slowing of the growth in the southeast over the next decade. Individual markets will rise and wane but as we level off after the recession every expects the real estate industry to become more pragmatic long-term.

Charlotte, like Atlanta, will have to fight through that plateau of urbanity for cities without destination tourism. Seems to hit about every 1M new residents or so as the local market adjust to the new economic realities of traffic, housing costs, etc. Charlotte's in a position to shape a more efficient urbanity than the Atlanta of the 80's but there's still the need for a "why" behind that growth. Thus I expect both Atlanta and Charlotte to see a tapering off in about 3-5 years, not to stagnation but simply a valley until the national economy has figured out its post-recession, post-Obama plans.

But that's just me.
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Old December 4th, 2014, 10:53 PM   #14
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This is a very difficult prediction to make. There's your standard Atlanta, Miami & Charlotte predictions, but those cities have been or are already in that state of transformation. So, I'm going to go out on a limb here & predict some transformative cities concerning downtown, not necessarily huge population growth though. First, Jacksonville has long been a disappoint concerning new development, that I believe that will change. There will be a point that South American money will begin to flow to Jacksonville, costs for development is much less expensive, a stable city with good long-term growth prospects, to name a few advantages. I'll predict that Birmingham will also see major investment downtown, not supertalls, but they'll have some serious 20-30 story proposals that will alter the skyline dramatically by 2025. This might all be because of an increase in industrial & logistic industries taking advantages of low-cost development. There is an opportunity for Memphis to see a dramatic change, as well. Jackson, MS might very well see multiple proposals downtown, too. I'll stick with those at the moment.
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Old December 5th, 2014, 08:00 AM   #15
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I'd be interested to see how cities like Asheville, Charleston and Savannah will look in that time frame.
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Old December 6th, 2014, 04:49 PM   #16
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Charlotte is the Nations 2nd fastest growing large city (500,000+)

1) Fort Worth
2) Charlotte
3) Austin
4) San Antonio
5) El Paso


The United Nations predict Charlotte will be the #1 fastest growing and Raleigh #2 fastest growing cities in the US between 2010-2030

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/201...ns-fastest.htm


Office Towers will dominate this round of construction here and will increase uptown inventory by 15%. With 4 office towers likely to break ground in the next year, the earliest being in about a week. I'm glad because Office Towers mean our growth will continue to chug along. You can't keep building apartments and not Have new jobs coming in.


I think the biggest difference in Charlotte besides the skyline bulking up and expanding is the Rail lines, the urban neighborhoods growing together to make Center city Charlotte a seemless destination. Plaza Midwood, NoDa, Uptown & SouthEnd will all be connected by rail.

Another thing even as significant as our skyline getting big is retail at the ground. A huge priority (they say). There are plans for lobby's to be converted to retail, new projects are supposed to have good retail and 2 more grocery stores are confirmed but not set in stone uptown.

There will be signage directing pedestrians on Retail (because a lot of it is hidden in the overstreet mall) and they will turn bus shelters into Retail Kiosk which I think will be cool.

I go with Charlotte - Austin - Atlanta - Nashville
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Old December 9th, 2014, 02:04 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GunnerJacket View Post
Much will be determined by the employment market there, and many pundits are predicting a slowing of the growth in the southeast over the next decade. Individual markets will rise and wane but as we level off after the recession every expects the real estate industry to become more pragmatic long-term.

Charlotte, like Atlanta, will have to fight through that plateau of urbanity for cities without destination tourism. Seems to hit about every 1M new residents or so as the local market adjust to the new economic realities of traffic, housing costs, etc. Charlotte's in a position to shape a more efficient urbanity than the Atlanta of the 80's but there's still the need for a "why" behind that growth. Thus I expect both Atlanta and Charlotte to see a tapering off in about 3-5 years, not to stagnation but simply a valley until the national economy has figured out its post-recession, post-Obama plans.

But that's just me.
I'll take the slow, and steady, Obama economy for the next 40 years and be very happy. The previous 30 years of big boom and big bust are exhausting.
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Old December 10th, 2014, 08:00 AM   #18
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I think there's a good case to be made for Atlanta, and a big reason for this is the sheer amount of walkable urban development occurring near transit nodes and in streetcar suburban commercial districts. MARTA, while lacking in coverage for a metro the size of Atlanta, sufficiently serves as a spine for a lot of this infill. Combined with the redevelopment spurred by the Beltline and the streetcar, Atlanta is beginning to fill in a lot of blanks within its core, giving it a more cohesive feel. Gentrification is already transforming many intown neighborhoods near downtown. And of course, downtown with its great historic bones is ripe for revitalization; it's already starting to happen in small ways.
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Old December 10th, 2014, 08:09 AM   #19
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I'd be interested to see how cities like Asheville, Charleston and Savannah will look in that time frame.
largely the same but with some nice new buildings. maybe even new signature buildings, but probably not thanks to the NIMBY's.

the areas nearby might look radically different though.

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Old December 11th, 2014, 03:45 AM   #20
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This is a very difficult prediction to make. There's your standard Atlanta, Miami & Charlotte predictions, but those cities have been or are already in that state of transformation. So, I'm going to go out on a limb here & predict some transformative cities concerning downtown, not necessarily huge population growth though. First, Jacksonville has long been a disappoint concerning new development, that I believe that will change. There will be a point that South American money will begin to flow to Jacksonville, costs for development is much less expensive, a stable city with good long-term growth prospects, to name a few advantages. I'll predict that Birmingham will also see major investment downtown, not supertalls, but they'll have some serious 20-30 story proposals that will alter the skyline dramatically by 2025. This might all be because of an increase in industrial & logistic industries taking advantages of low-cost development. There is an opportunity for Memphis to see a dramatic change, as well. Jackson, MS might very well see multiple proposals downtown, too. I'll stick with those at the moment.
Would you care to explain what makes you think that South American money would start to flow into such a moribund city like Jax? What air routes if any does it have to South America? Miami & Orlando to a extent are the cities that are favored by most Carribean & S. Americans since both have substantial immigrant cultures already.
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