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Old April 24th, 2005, 06:01 PM   #1
chicagogeorge
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What will be the 10 largest Metros in 2025

Here are the 2004 population estimates for the 10 largest CSA's in the U.S.
RANK CMSA 2004

1 New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA 21858830
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA 17516110
3 Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI 9608458
4 Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV 7986615
5 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA 7159693
6 Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5951797
7 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 5899336
8 Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-NH 5809111
9 Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI 5428855
10 Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX 5280752


What will change in 25 years?
Will New York still be the largest?
Will Chicago still come in 3rd?

Look into your crystal ball....
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Old April 24th, 2005, 06:55 PM   #2
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I think Baltimore/Washington will grow, but not enough to surpass Chicago, but State and District officals are projecting a huge population increase by 2020. The University System of Maryland is already urging its schools to do what they can to accomodate more students without risking a lower academic standard.

Of the curent top-10, I think only the Detroit Metro has the chance of slipping out of the top-10.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 07:25 PM   #3
pwright1
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This is what I think.

1. Los Angeles
2. New York
3. Chicago
4. Dallas/Fort Worth
5. D.C./Baltimore
6. San Francisco/San Jose
7. Houston
8. Atlanta
9. Miami
10.Phoenix

MSA

1. Los Angeles
2. New York
3. Chicago
4. Dallas/Fort Worth
5. Houston
6. Atlanta
7. Miami
8. Phoenix
9. Philadelphia
10.Washington D.C.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 08:06 PM   #4
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Detroit won't slip out of the top ten because by 2025 chances are that Toledo, Jackson, and other nearby cities will probably be included in the CSA.

Right now, Ann Arbor, South Lyon-Brighton-Howell, and Detroit are all separate Urban Areas. In 20 years they will most likely have merged into one giant urban area. So, assuming the current definitions are the same in 2025, this is probably what the Detroit-Toledo-Flint CSA will look like:

Detroit-Ann Arbor-Warren MSA - 4,978,952 (2004 population)
Wayne County - 2,016,202
Oakland County - 1,213,339
Macomb County - 822,660
Washtenaw County - 339,191
Livingston County - 177,538
St. Clair County - 170,916
Lenawee County - 101,768
Lapeer County - 92,510
Sanilac County - 44,828

Jackson MSA - 162,973 (2004 population)
Jackson County - 162,973

Flint MSA - 443,947 (2004 population)
Genessee County - 443,947

Toledo-Monroe MSA - 840,170 (2004 population)
Lucas County - 450,632
Monroe County - 152,552
Wood County - 123,278
Ottawa County - 41,407
Fulton County - 42,919
Henry County - 29,382

Detroit-Toledo-Flint CSA - 6,426,042 (2004 population)

So even if ALL growth stops, it still has a pretty good chance it will remain in the top 10. But that's not the case as the region is growing. If the growth rates of the last four years remain the same until 2010, the population of the region will be about 6.52 million. 15 years after that it will probably reach about 7 million.

Last edited by hudkina; April 24th, 2005 at 08:12 PM.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 08:12 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
Here are the 2004 population estimates for the 10 largest CSA's in the U.S.
RANK CMSA 2004

1 New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA 21858830
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA 17516110
3 Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI 9608458
4 Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV 7986615
5 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA 7159693
6 Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5951797
7 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 5899336
8 Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-NH 5809111
9 Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI 5428855
10 Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX 5280752

10 Miami???......5.3 Million
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Old April 24th, 2005, 09:59 PM   #6
chicagogeorge
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Here are some projected numbers for 2025 based on this particular organization which takes into account current immigration rates, migration, births, and deaths, economic forecasts........

1) New York City CSA:
25,900,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=842&c=9

2) Los Angeles CSA:
22,100,000 (a bit low IMO)

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=842&c=9

3) Chicago CSA:
11,920,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=842&c=9

4) D.C./Baltimore CSA:
10,345,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=752&c=9

5) Dallas Fort Worth Arlington CSA:
9,945,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=871&c=9

6) Bay Area CSA:
9,500,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=1258&c=9

7) Atlanta, Georgia MSA:
9,356,000 (yeah right!)

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=777&c=9


8) Phoenix/Mesa/ Scottsdale MSA:
8,268,000 (doubt it!)

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=732&c=9

9) Houston/ Galveston Brazoria CSA:
8,179,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=875&c=9


10) Las Vegas, Nevada MSA
7,112,000 (not gonna happen)

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=822&c=9

11) Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City CSA
6,992,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=833&c=9

12) Boston-Worcester-Lawrence, Massachusetts CSA:
6,800,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=801&c=9


13) Miami Fort/Lauderdale CSA:
6,295,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=732&c=9


14) Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint, Michigan CSA:
6,191,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=810&c=9

15) Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton, Washington CSA:
5,568,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=887&c=9

16) Denver-Boulder-Greely, Colorado CSA:
5,009,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=740&c=9

Last edited by chicagogeorge; April 25th, 2005 at 04:08 AM.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:06 PM   #7
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This is stupid. A city like Portland may be in the top ten... who knows? The only thing I would probably be sure about is that New York City will still be number one.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:08 PM   #8
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Wow, what would it be like to have New York surpassed by Los Angeles? I guess it's fairly likely to happen in the metro, if not the city proper. What's LA proper's capacity for growth, anyway?
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:10 PM   #9
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Hey sweetkisses,

Of course all this is is projections, forecasts, based on estimates. I think it's interesting to see which metro areas are seeing growth, both demographically, and economically.

What's so stupid about that?
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:14 PM   #10
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^Plenty of room for LA to grow and to the delight of most people here, the growth in LA is now a vertical growth instead of a horizontal growth since most of the land is already developed.

I think LA will be number one by 2025, or very close to being number 1. The LA long term planning report has 6 million more people moving to LA county by 2025, so add that to the amazing growth in Riverside and SB, as well as the OC and ventura, you get a metro that will have a pop around 24 - 28 million.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:19 PM   #11
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by 2025 Boston and Providence will almost certainly be in the same CSA with a population between 8 and 9 million.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:20 PM   #12
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^
Remember, most population projections base their forecast on current MSA/CSA definitions, and do not take into consideration the merging two or more csa's or msa's which can (and will) happen within the next couple of decades.
Such as......
NYC and Philly 30,000,000?
L.A. and San Deigo 26,000,000?
Chicago, Rockford, and Miluakee 15,000,000?
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:29 PM   #13
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Don't forget the Atlanta-Birmingham-Macon-Charlotte-Nashville-Marrietta,-Sandy Springs CSA. That should be reality somewhere by 2015.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:36 PM   #14
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I've heard another projection that puts Atlanta at around 6 million by 2025. To me that sounds more likely. However, at the rate of current sprawl it may swallow or merge with other nearby metro bumping it's population upwards.
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Old April 24th, 2005, 10:56 PM   #15
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IMO, I'm pretty sure the top four will remain the same. The 6-15 positions will really depend on the cycles of economic, civic, and political actions of the cities, and what CSAs absorb. That's Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Miami, Philly, Boston, Detroit, SF, Phoenix, Seattle, Las Vegas.
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Old April 25th, 2005, 12:11 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
Here are some projected numbers for 2025 based on this particular organization which takes into account current immigration rates, migration, births, and deaths, economic forecasts........

16) Portland-Salem, Oregon CSA:
4,060,000

http://www.fairus.org/Research/Research.cfm?ID=858&c=9
You need to change your rankings because the same site projects the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA to be 4,432,000 and Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud CSA will be close to 4.8 million.
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Old April 25th, 2005, 12:13 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
Hey sweetkisses,

Of course all this is is projections, forecasts, based on estimates. I think it's interesting to see which metro areas are seeing growth, both demographically, and economically.

What's so stupid about that?
ok maybe stupid isnt the right word...I dunno
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Old April 25th, 2005, 12:20 AM   #18
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LV with 7 million? are you sure they didnt annex the imperal empire of California or Flagstaff.

Btw Chicago will Annex Grand Rapids, Green Bay, Wisocnsin Dells, Freeport, South Bend, Bloomington-Normal by 2025(that includes MIlwukee, Madison, and Rockford).

Maybe about 17,000,000 million huge mega city.
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Old April 25th, 2005, 12:32 AM   #19
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it will annex Green Bay!!???? My god man.....it aint gonna stretch that far for a longggggggggg time. Milwaukee will definely be a part of the Chicago region. I also think that Chicago will expand into Rockford...which will merge with Janesville-Beloit, and then Madison. There will need to be some major infill between Madison and Milwaukee--which seems possible with the people moving out into Waukesha or Occonomowoc. Oh by the way....why annex Wisconsin Dells? I read in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Six Flags has created a water park in Gurnee to steal away the huge amount of Chicagoians and Milwaukeeans who annulaly visit the Dells. Bastards
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Old April 25th, 2005, 12:53 AM   #20
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Yeah, Chicago having Green Bay in it's CSA seems a little messed up.
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