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Old February 25th, 2015, 12:39 AM   #9921
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Very large margin of error unfortunately due to the very small sample size, support for any party could be 9% out. Would explain the doubling in UKIP support at any rate.
Their sample size is at the upper end of what I've seen in the last few polls. Ashcroft's latest poll (yesterday) only asked about 50 folk in Scotland. Most have shown Labour's support has dropped dramatically but actually to just under the UK average, would be seriously surprised if it was much under 28% come May.

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Old February 25th, 2015, 12:57 AM   #9922
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Quote:
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Their sample size is at the upper end of what I've seen in the last few polls. Ashcroft's latest poll (yesterday) only asked about 50 folk in Scotland. Most have shown Labour's support has dropped dramatically but actually to just under the UK average, would be seriously surprised if it was much under 28% come May.

Mexico, any day you don't post is a wee bit more peace
Not to be a poll hipster or anything, but I only use polls where there is a full Scottish sample of at least 1000 people (or a touch under).

That way, the accuracy is within 3% or thereabouts. As soon as we start dipping below 500 for the electorate in Scotland as a whole then things just start getting silly.

Currently, I'd take a punt at 25-35% being Labour's final result for the 2015 GE in Scotland.

The full constituency Ashcroft polls (not the ones you mentioned) in Scotland are ******* electoral chocolate. Can't wait until the next batch is released.
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Old February 25th, 2015, 04:10 AM   #9923
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Why did Jonny get banned?
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Old February 25th, 2015, 12:14 PM   #9924
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Trolling?
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Old February 25th, 2015, 05:48 PM   #9925
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Quote:
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Not to be a poll hipster or anything, but I only use polls where there is a full Scottish sample of at least 1000 people (or a touch under).

That way, the accuracy is within 3% or thereabouts. As soon as we start dipping below 500 for the electorate in Scotland as a whole then things just start getting silly.

Currently, I'd take a punt at 25-35% being Labour's final result for the 2015 GE in Scotland.

The full constituency Ashcroft polls (not the ones you mentioned) in Scotland are ******* electoral chocolate. Can't wait until the next batch is released.
+1 to that... and my feeling (supported to a large extent by the data) is that Labour support has become effectively decoupled by Yes support, i.e. Yes voters, whether previously Labour or not, are just by vast proportion SNP inclined now. Its not really (just) Labour that would have to tempt them back, they'd also have to change their minds back on the constitutional issue - and in the past the predominating evidence has shown that once a person turns to Yes they are very unlikely to turn back...
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Old February 26th, 2015, 12:17 PM   #9926
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So it seems Labour has waded into the row on Longannet power station. UK ministers blaming green taxes, SNP blaming the National Grid access charge. Labour blaming "unbalanced energy generation" - which can only mean they disagree with the increase in renewables? Perhaps they'd rather pay EU fines for missing mandatory renewables targets than pay to encourage renewables?

I had a look at the electricity generation figures from 2013 - the vast majority of power we generate comes from renewables / nuclear, with the proportion from coal/gas/oil roughly the same as the electricity we export. Obviously until storage is improved to balance out peak generation/peak usage times we'll need a way of quickly balancing out times of high use / low production, but it really doesn't seem fair that Longannet is charged £40mill a year whilst a similar power station down south would actually get money back. Paying a company to operate a coal/oil/gas power station seems ridiculously perverse for the "greenest uk government eva". Does anyone know if the National Grid charges "close to population centers" actually mean what they say on the tin or do they effectively mean "located in the SE of England"?
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Old February 26th, 2015, 04:15 PM   #9927
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i wondered about that last point too. longannet looks to be well placed to serve 5 of scotland's 7 cities. can someone who knows elucidate?
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Old February 26th, 2015, 07:43 PM   #9928
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Why did Jonny get banned?
Bypassing the swear filter on his first post back since his last ban?

The female term for a dog is considered a swear on here I think.

I think it's a shame, he is one of the funniest posters on here.
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Old February 26th, 2015, 09:39 PM   #9929
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As I mentioned earlier in this thread, Danny Alexander seems to have completely lost it. I'll just leave this here.

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Old February 27th, 2015, 02:12 AM   #9930
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If dignity is the only thing he loses in the coming months, he'll be doing well.
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Old February 27th, 2015, 03:41 AM   #9931
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SNP 'extend their lead' over Labour by 6 points in the latest TNS poll, though I argued the last one was an outlier, so I think we're seeing little change in reality.

SNP: 46
LAB: 30
CON: 14
LIB: 3
GRN: 3
UKP: 3
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Old February 27th, 2015, 10:48 AM   #9932
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Something fishy is going on at TNS - last poll i saw of theirs was ~Feb 10th and had SNP on 24%ish. No chance they've doubled in 2 weeks..
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Old February 27th, 2015, 03:39 PM   #9933
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Are you sure it was a Scotland poll and not the subset of a UK-wide poll? I'm pretty sure there's only been two Scotland polls from TNS this year, this one and another which had SNP on 41.
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Old February 27th, 2015, 04:11 PM   #9934
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Further, my sources tell me that the next Lord Ashcroft polls will include:

East Renfrewshire / Jim Murphy's seat
Kirkcaldy & Glenrothes / Gordon Brown's seat
Skye, Kyle & Lochaber / Charlie Kennedy's seat


And the rolling average between MORI / YOUGOV / TNS / Survation:

48(+2)% SNP
27(nc)% Lab
14(nc)% Con
4%(-1)% Lib
3(-2)% Green
2(-1)% UKIP

Seat predictions.

Scotlandvotes:
53 SNP
5 Lab
1 Lib
0 Con


Electoral Calculus:
48 SNP
11 Lab
0 Lib
0 Con
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Old Yesterday, 06:27 PM   #9935
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Not certain as to its authenticity, but the following is supposedly a leak of the Ashcroft poll for Jim Murphy's seat of East Renfrewshire. It's incredibly close and will likely put Murphy into a bit of a panic.

33(-18)% Lab
31(+22)% SNP
27(-3)% Con
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Old Yesterday, 09:44 PM   #9936
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Those are numbers the term "baw hair" was invented for.
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