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Old October 16th, 2017, 05:00 PM   #19641
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*mmcd and Merswy like this*
Oh my god do you fancy me or something? jesus literally every post I get a mention from you!

Let's go for a drink, my place?
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Old October 17th, 2017, 09:17 AM   #19642
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*mmcd and Merswy like this*
Because it was fantastic.
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Old October 17th, 2017, 01:20 PM   #19643
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Your bullshit gibberish is fantastic? You need mental help.
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Old October 17th, 2017, 05:41 PM   #19644
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Meanwhile signs like these seem to be cropping up around Euston /Camden. This is from a church on Upper Woburn Place/ Euston Road :

(caption: # HS2 For The Few)

Judging by the similarity to the Labour Party's slogan, are the latter in support or against the railway?

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Old October 17th, 2017, 06:24 PM   #19645
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The irony is that, without HS2, Intercity rail travel will be even more the preserve of The Few, due to (like housing) supply being well below demand.
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Old October 17th, 2017, 06:56 PM   #19646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TRaji00 View Post
Meanwhile signs like these seem to be cropping up around Euston /Camden.:

(caption: # HS2 For The Few)

Judging by the similarity to the Labour Party's slogan, are the latter in support or against the railway?
This is just a banner created by a small anti-progress Nimby group that are totally desperate for publicity. The same levels of desperation force the likes of Mad John (aka 'paperbacker writer') and the other StopHs2 fanboys to repeatedly spam this board - these disruptive tactics are those that were published by the StopHS2 pressure group. The vast majority of British people don't care much I bet because the subject is very technical. A recent petition against HS2 was shown to only have registered significant support along the route of the new railway - in other words only the Nimbys signed it!

In reality Labour support HS2 - in fact it has widespread support in the British Parliament from all major political parties. Every recent vote in both the Commons and the Lords produced an overwhelming ten to one majority in favour of HS2 being built. It's opponents have essentially been defeated, but some of them are a bit slow to realise this, and they cling to the belief that they can stop it.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 08:52 AM   #19647
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The irony is that, without HS2, Intercity rail travel will be even more the preserve of The Few, due to (like housing) supply being well below demand.
Manchester trains are mainly empty, shifting fresh air to London.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 08:55 AM   #19648
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Manchester trains are mainly empty, shifting fresh air to London.
Okay, i'll bite. If Manchester trains to London are empty, despite having 2.5 times the demand of Liverpool, then what does that make Liverpool trains?
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Old October 18th, 2017, 09:03 AM   #19649
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Manchester trains are mainly empty, shifting fresh air to London. That was simple to understand.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 10:37 AM   #19650
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paperbacker righter View Post
Manchester trains are mainly empty, shifting fresh air to London. That was simple to understand.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 01:02 PM   #19651
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Moderators don't seem to give a shit anymore.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 02:17 PM   #19652
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paperbacker righter View Post
Manchester trains are mainly empty, shifting fresh air to London. That was simple to understand.
Source? Anecdote/personal opinion is not the same as a source BTW

Do you seriously believe that the government is so determined to boost Manchester that they run empty trains all day? And no one but you has noticed? How is the tin foil hat business?
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Old October 18th, 2017, 04:22 PM   #19653
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Okay, i'll bite. If Manchester trains to London are empty, despite having 2.5 times the demand of Liverpool, then what does that make Liverpool trains?
Much fuller.

Its a simple matter of mathematics.

I have actually gone through the numbers in the past on here about a year ago, either in this thread or in the Liverpool HS2 thread and it clearly shows that inspite of all words from people like you to the contrary most of the seats out of Manchester are in fact full of hopes, aspiration and the dreams of children. Because they are sure not full of people.

Simply do the math, calculate how many seats per year travel to and from Manchester in a year and then look at how many people use the station in a year.

Pendolino seating is either 469 or 589. Manchester mostly gets 11 car sets so each train has 589 seats x3 1,767 arrive and 1,767 leave in any one single hour based on a 3tph service. As far as I can see with a quick look 47 trains arrive from Euston in a day, and of course 47 trains must leave. PER DAY.

so 589 seats times the amount of trains of 47 equals 27,683 seats arrive and 27,683 seats leave on an average day.
there are less on a Saturday at 43 (25,327 seats), Sunday nets 33 trains (19,437 seats) (183,179 a week times 52 weeks in a year times 2 because they also leave, so 19,050,616 seats come and go in a year, which is remarkable as the station only sees 25,000,000 users in total per year.

But I seem to remember (and please feel free to look back if you dont want to take my work for it) Manchester developes 3.5-4 million Manchester - London users per year.

Liverpool 18 * 589 (*5 because there are 5 week days) + 12 589 (saturday) 12 * 589 (sunday)

67,146 seats arrive a week, 3,491,592 a year times 2 because they also leave so 6,983,184 seats come and go from Liverpool in a year and there are about 1.500,000 users.


Now given those numbers, which is admit are a bit rough and ready, but now can you see how it might be possible that the seats coming and goin from Manchester only contain hopes, aspirations and the dreams of children?
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Old October 18th, 2017, 05:12 PM   #19654
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Much fuller.

Its a simple matter of mathematics.

I have actually gone through the numbers in the past on here about a year ago, either in this thread or in the Liverpool HS2 thread and it clearly shows that inspite of all words from people like you to the contrary most of the seats out of Manchester are in fact full of hopes, aspiration and the dreams of children. Because they are sure not full of people.

Simply do the math, calculate how many seats per year travel to and from Manchester in a year and then look at how many people use the station in a year.

Pendolino seating is either 469 or 589. Manchester mostly gets 11 car sets so each train has 589 seats x3 1,767 arrive and 1,767 leave in any one single hour based on a 3tph service. As far as I can see with a quick look 47 trains arrive from Euston in a day, and of course 47 trains must leave. PER DAY.

so 589 seats times the amount of trains of 47 equals 27,683 seats arrive and 27,683 seats leave on an average day.
there are less on a Saturday at 43 (25,327 seats), Sunday nets 33 trains (19,437 seats) (183,179 a week times 52 weeks in a year times 2 because they also leave, so 19,050,616 seats come and go in a year, which is remarkable as the station only sees 25,000,000 users in total per year.

But I seem to remember (and please feel free to look back if you dont want to take my work for it) Manchester developes 3.5-4 million Manchester - London users per year.

Liverpool 18 * 589 (*5 because there are 5 week days) + 12 589 (saturday) 12 * 589 (sunday)

67,146 seats arrive a week, 3,491,592 a year times 2 because they also leave so 6,983,184 seats come and go from Liverpool in a year and there are about 1.500,000 users.


Now given those numbers, which is admit are a bit rough and ready, but now can you see how it might be possible that the seats coming and goin from Manchester only contain hopes, aspirations and the dreams of children?
Surely this is an oversimplification given that the trains don't only stop at Manchester and Liverpool?

How does the analysis compare for Liverpool + Runcorn + Crewe + Stafford compared to Manchester + Stockport + Macclesfield + Stoke + Wilmslow?

This analysis also doesn't non-London flows such as Stoke to Manchester versus Crewe to Liverpool for example.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 05:33 PM   #19655
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Surely this is an oversimplification given that the trains don't only stop at Manchester and Liverpool?

How does the analysis compare for Liverpool + Runcorn + Crewe + Stafford compared to Manchester + Stockport + Macclesfield + Stoke + Wilmslow?

This analysis also doesn't non-London flows such as Stoke to Manchester versus Crewe to Liverpool for example.
That wasnt the question that was asked though was it.

I have demonstrated, quite cogently I believe, that most of the seats that go to and from Manchester are in fact empty.

I seem to remember the numbers of users I used came from Vulcan who quoted them from the FT.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 05:59 PM   #19656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElectroSoldier View Post

Manchester... 19,050,616 seats 3.5-4 million Manchester - London users per year.

Liverpool .... 6,983,184 seats 1.500,000 users.
So Manchester trains are on average 19.7% full (using 3.75m) and Liverpool trains are 21.5% full


So a train from Liverpool has what, one extra seat taken in every carriage? That is definitely much fuller

Maybe HS2 should go somewhere with actual demand?

Last edited by Stuu; October 18th, 2017 at 06:18 PM. Reason: Add snide remark about demand
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Old October 18th, 2017, 06:25 PM   #19657
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So Manchester trains are on average 19.7% full (using 3.75m) and Liverpool trains are 21.5% full


So a train from Liverpool has what, one extra seat taken in every carriage? That is definitely much fuller
muwhahahahahaha

You carry on grasping those straws son, Ill just be over here with the smug knowledge that you are in fact wrong and that Liverpool trains are busier than Manchester trains, and there is nothing you can do about it!

1.8% difference is quite a difference considering the overall percentage is only 21.5% and best of all you were absolutely sure the people here were wrong.

Ill tell you something else though, something that is more important than who does and doesnt get this that or the other.

Given these numbers, and the way HS2 will sort of remove these numbers, I mean the untold numbers who join these trains further in the journey, numbers that will get HS2 trains from other locations in the future. It makes me wonder if HS2 might not be the white elephant in the room, a room that will end up costing this country, a country heading towards Brexit and a lean time finanically, a hell of a lot of money that needs to be paid for by its users.
It makes me wonder if these lines and stations will ever end up being worth what we pay for them.
Manchester will be hit quite hard when it pays for the airport spur for instance, funds that must be recouped and if the service level from HS2 ends up being a whole lot more than is needed then it takes a long long time to pay the money back and ends up hurting rather than helping.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 06:36 PM   #19658
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuu View Post
So Manchester trains are on average 19.7% full (using 3.75m) and Liverpool trains are 21.5% full


So a train from Liverpool has what, one extra seat taken in every carriage? That is definitely much fuller

Maybe HS2 should go somewhere with actual demand?
The actual demand for Liverpool is 1.76m pax p/a - so 25.2% full, which is significantly more than 19.7%.

Looking at it another way, if the frequency was doubled the that would be about 14% average occupancy. However one would expect more passengers as Liverpool becomes a more competitive rail head for many passengers and the actual journey time would reduce as wait time for passengers would be shorter (30 min between trains not 60 mins) and with more seats at the peak and at times in the peak that arrive before 9 am. The current poor frequency dampens demand and those people who would otherwise have quicker journeys via Lime Street go elsewhere.
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Old October 18th, 2017, 08:48 PM   #19659
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Lots of rather strange assumptions are appearing here - like that almost all Manchester trains are 11-car. That of course is nonsense. Just like Liverpool, the diagram ratio of each type will be fairly similar to the split of the 56-strong fleet. 35 are 11-car, 21 are 9-car. (Liverpool had 10 long and seven short sets last time that I dug out the diagrams).

Manchester Piccadilly's annual London market passenger numbers alone were 3.25 million in 2014-15, and before that Stockport's numbers were quoted as 800,000. Add in Wilmslow and the total just from those three stations must be well over 4.5 million in 2017 allowing for even modest growth figures. Smaller numbers from the MCR no doubt also use trains from Wigan, Warrington and Macclesfield.

Manchester trains are also responsible for about 35-40% of available seats from Crewe on Virgin trains and 100% of those from Stoke.

I think we can safely discount the 'evidence' supplied by those on here with a bias. If there really were that many empty seats on the Manchester services how come a fiercely commercial organisation like Virgin decided to promote the Scottish and Liverpool routes by slashing the price of advance booking tickets? Yet those kind of very cheap fares are not currently being offered on the Manchester trains....
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Old October 18th, 2017, 09:01 PM   #19660
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan's Finest View Post
Lots of rather strange assumptions are appearing here - like that almost all Manchester trains are 11-car. That of course is nonsense. Just like Liverpool, the diagram ratio of each type will be fairly similar to the split of the 56-strong fleet. 35 are 11-car, 21 are 9-car. (Liverpool had 10 long and seven short sets last time that I dug out the diagrams).

Manchester Piccadilly's annual London market passenger numbers alone were 3.25 million in 2014-15, and before that Stockport's numbers were quoted as 800,000. Add in Wilmslow and the total just from those three stations must be well over 4.5 million in 2017 allowing for even modest growth figures. Smaller numbers from the MCR no doubt also use trains from Wigan, Warrington and Macclesfield.

Manchester trains are also responsible for about 35-40% of available seats from Crewe on Virgin trains and 100% of those from Stoke.

I think we can safely discount the 'evidence' supplied by those on here with a bias. If there really were that many empty seats on the Manchester services how come a fiercely commercial organisation like Virgin decided to promote the Scottish and Liverpool routes by slashing the price of advance booking tickets? Yet those kind of very cheap fares are not currently being offered on the Manchester trains....
Just to be clear, the only figures I've supplied are actual passenger number for Liverpool. I've just corrected a factual error and I've not suggested any numbers for Manchester.
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