This is in response to those worried about global warming and the Bay Area.
I guess you guys will have so much more to worry about.
From San Francisco Chronicle:
BAY AREA
Population expected to swell by 2 million
ABAG report says number of jobs and people will increase through 2035, but region's housing stock may not keep pace
Wyatt Buchanan, Chronicle Staff Writer
Friday, December 15, 2006
Printable Version Email This Article
The Bay Area's population will rise by about 2 million people over the next 30 years, with the largest increases in San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland, the Association of Bay Area Governments projected in a report released Thursday.
Planners and demographers said Thursday it may be time for the Bay Area to bite the bullet and plan for density, because people will continue coming here to work.
San Jose is expected to be the first Bay Area city to surpass the 1-million-population mark, in 2010, and San Francisco should see about 161,000 new residents by 2035, according to the projections, which the organization makes every two years.
Regional planners who wrote the report predicted 1.5 million new jobs will be created in the Bay Area between 2000 and 2035, with large increases in health and education services; professional and managerial services; and arts and recreation and restaurant services.
"There's no question the Bay Area is going to grow in jobs and population," said Paul W. Fassinger, research director for the organization.
That population growth is likely to exacerbate the long-standing housing shortage in the Bay Area, say regional planners inside and outside the association. The housing shortage is something that must be addressed regionwide and not just city by city, they say.
"Obviously we're going to need to do something we haven't done in the past and that is build high-density cities," said Ted Egan, an economist at the planning and consulting firm ICF International who is helping San Francisco create an economic development strategy.
"If the region doesn't rise to that challenge we're going to have more people living in the Central Valley who are driving into the city and contributing to urban sprawl," Egan said.
The association's projection shows that the jobs-to-housing imbalance should lessen slightly by 2035, though there will still be about 230,000 people commuting to the nine Bay Area counties for work. Some regional planners consider areas outside the traditional nine-county area, like San Joaquin and San Benito counties, as part of the region, but they are not part of the association's projection.
At a presentation of the 30-year plan in Oakland on Thursday, planners with the association said cities will need to create multifamily housing and boost growth in areas that are hubs of public transportation to accommodate the projected 2035 Bay Area population of 9 million.
The report recommends cities create a variety of housing options, from single-family residences to multifamily residences such as townhouses, and believe that 20,000 to 25,000 units of housing will be created each year.
Even if that much housing is built, it may not be enough, however.
"It has been a very difficult problem in the Bay Area," Fassinger said. "It's hard to say we will meet that need completely."
The report blames the high cost of housing on lagging construction of new units and a concentration of multifamily units in Oakland, San Francisco and San Jose.
Cities in the Bay Area should plan where new housing can be built and minimize red tape that delays construction, Fassinger said, repeating a refrain commonly heard in the Bay Area for at least two decades.
That's much easier to say than to do, said Hans Johnson, a research fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California. Surveys conducted by that organization show that city planners rate interest in creating multifamily housing just above creating zones of heavy industrial development.
That has a lot to do with the state's tax structure, as municipalities keep much more of the tax revenue from sales taxes than they do from property taxes, Johnson said.
The need for dense housing will probably change the look of San Jose, which is projected to have 1.35 million residents by 2035.
"I think San Jose is going to have to become more urbanized in certain areas," Fassinger said.
The city may be ready for that kind of development, said Jim Gollub, who worked on a campaign in Santa Clara County several years ago to engage the region in a conversation about housing needs.
"What's great about the South Bay is that San Jose has had a renaissance in its thinking about higher density," said Gollub, senior vice president at ICF International.
In addition to the population growing, planners expect it to age, with the median age in the Bay Area increasing from 36.5 years old to 42.5 years old by 2035. People 60 years old and older will make up an increasing portion of the total population, and the 60-to-69 age group will be the second largest behind people 20 to 29 years old, according to Thursday's projections.
That growth largely is due to the Baby Boomer generation aging, planners say, though the residents are older on average in the Bay Area and especially San Francisco and Marin County than in other parts of the country.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHART:
Bay Area demographics
The number of people age 60 and older will grow faster than any other group according to new projections released Thursday. -- Bay Area population and age projections, 2005 - 2035
Projected median age
2005: 36.5
2015: 38.8
2025: 40.9
2035: 42.5
-- Wage and salary employment, 2000 to 2006
Bay Area employment decreased 7% from 2000 to 2006, but it is expected to increase 52%, and top 5 million jobs, by 2035.
San Francisco
Jan. 2000 1,078,600
Oct. 2002 985,000
Oct. 2004 942,300
Oct. 2006 970,300
San Jose
Jan. 2000: 1,059,500
Oct. 2002 : 909,000
Oct. 2004: 874,600
Oct. 2006: 890,900
Oakland
Jan. 2000: 1,054,600
Oct. 2002 : 1,048,700
Oct. 2004 : 1,031,400
Oct. 2006: 1,063,900
Vallejo
Jan. 2000: 114,400
Oct. 2002 : 126,100
Oct. 2004 : 128,400
Oct. 2006: 133,300
Napa
Jan. 2000: 62,200
Oct. 2002 : 67,500
Oct. 2004: 66,600
Oct. 2006: 68,500
Santa Rosa
Jan. 2000: 191,300
Oct. 2002 : 194,800
Oct. 2004: 193,100
Oct. 2006 : 192,400
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments The Chronicle
E-mail Wyatt Buchanan at wbuchanan@sfchronicle.com.
This article appeared on page B - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle
I guess you guys will have so much more to worry about.
From San Francisco Chronicle:
BAY AREA
Population expected to swell by 2 million
ABAG report says number of jobs and people will increase through 2035, but region's housing stock may not keep pace
Wyatt Buchanan, Chronicle Staff Writer
Friday, December 15, 2006
Printable Version Email This Article
The Bay Area's population will rise by about 2 million people over the next 30 years, with the largest increases in San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland, the Association of Bay Area Governments projected in a report released Thursday.
Planners and demographers said Thursday it may be time for the Bay Area to bite the bullet and plan for density, because people will continue coming here to work.
San Jose is expected to be the first Bay Area city to surpass the 1-million-population mark, in 2010, and San Francisco should see about 161,000 new residents by 2035, according to the projections, which the organization makes every two years.
Regional planners who wrote the report predicted 1.5 million new jobs will be created in the Bay Area between 2000 and 2035, with large increases in health and education services; professional and managerial services; and arts and recreation and restaurant services.
"There's no question the Bay Area is going to grow in jobs and population," said Paul W. Fassinger, research director for the organization.
That population growth is likely to exacerbate the long-standing housing shortage in the Bay Area, say regional planners inside and outside the association. The housing shortage is something that must be addressed regionwide and not just city by city, they say.
"Obviously we're going to need to do something we haven't done in the past and that is build high-density cities," said Ted Egan, an economist at the planning and consulting firm ICF International who is helping San Francisco create an economic development strategy.
"If the region doesn't rise to that challenge we're going to have more people living in the Central Valley who are driving into the city and contributing to urban sprawl," Egan said.
The association's projection shows that the jobs-to-housing imbalance should lessen slightly by 2035, though there will still be about 230,000 people commuting to the nine Bay Area counties for work. Some regional planners consider areas outside the traditional nine-county area, like San Joaquin and San Benito counties, as part of the region, but they are not part of the association's projection.
At a presentation of the 30-year plan in Oakland on Thursday, planners with the association said cities will need to create multifamily housing and boost growth in areas that are hubs of public transportation to accommodate the projected 2035 Bay Area population of 9 million.
The report recommends cities create a variety of housing options, from single-family residences to multifamily residences such as townhouses, and believe that 20,000 to 25,000 units of housing will be created each year.
Even if that much housing is built, it may not be enough, however.
"It has been a very difficult problem in the Bay Area," Fassinger said. "It's hard to say we will meet that need completely."
The report blames the high cost of housing on lagging construction of new units and a concentration of multifamily units in Oakland, San Francisco and San Jose.
Cities in the Bay Area should plan where new housing can be built and minimize red tape that delays construction, Fassinger said, repeating a refrain commonly heard in the Bay Area for at least two decades.
That's much easier to say than to do, said Hans Johnson, a research fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California. Surveys conducted by that organization show that city planners rate interest in creating multifamily housing just above creating zones of heavy industrial development.
That has a lot to do with the state's tax structure, as municipalities keep much more of the tax revenue from sales taxes than they do from property taxes, Johnson said.
The need for dense housing will probably change the look of San Jose, which is projected to have 1.35 million residents by 2035.
"I think San Jose is going to have to become more urbanized in certain areas," Fassinger said.
The city may be ready for that kind of development, said Jim Gollub, who worked on a campaign in Santa Clara County several years ago to engage the region in a conversation about housing needs.
"What's great about the South Bay is that San Jose has had a renaissance in its thinking about higher density," said Gollub, senior vice president at ICF International.
In addition to the population growing, planners expect it to age, with the median age in the Bay Area increasing from 36.5 years old to 42.5 years old by 2035. People 60 years old and older will make up an increasing portion of the total population, and the 60-to-69 age group will be the second largest behind people 20 to 29 years old, according to Thursday's projections.
That growth largely is due to the Baby Boomer generation aging, planners say, though the residents are older on average in the Bay Area and especially San Francisco and Marin County than in other parts of the country.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHART:
Bay Area demographics
The number of people age 60 and older will grow faster than any other group according to new projections released Thursday. -- Bay Area population and age projections, 2005 - 2035
Projected median age
2005: 36.5
2015: 38.8
2025: 40.9
2035: 42.5
-- Wage and salary employment, 2000 to 2006
Bay Area employment decreased 7% from 2000 to 2006, but it is expected to increase 52%, and top 5 million jobs, by 2035.
San Francisco
Jan. 2000 1,078,600
Oct. 2002 985,000
Oct. 2004 942,300
Oct. 2006 970,300
San Jose
Jan. 2000: 1,059,500
Oct. 2002 : 909,000
Oct. 2004: 874,600
Oct. 2006: 890,900
Oakland
Jan. 2000: 1,054,600
Oct. 2002 : 1,048,700
Oct. 2004 : 1,031,400
Oct. 2006: 1,063,900
Vallejo
Jan. 2000: 114,400
Oct. 2002 : 126,100
Oct. 2004 : 128,400
Oct. 2006: 133,300
Napa
Jan. 2000: 62,200
Oct. 2002 : 67,500
Oct. 2004: 66,600
Oct. 2006: 68,500
Santa Rosa
Jan. 2000: 191,300
Oct. 2002 : 194,800
Oct. 2004: 193,100
Oct. 2006 : 192,400
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments The Chronicle
E-mail Wyatt Buchanan at wbuchanan@sfchronicle.com.
This article appeared on page B - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle