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Old April 24th, 2017, 02:20 AM   #14761
Crunchy_Kipper
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They can have a majority in city councils, a majority of MPs, and even a majority of MSPs, infact they should hold an election solely on getting indyref 2 as their only policy, yet it still wouldn't give them the power to hold a legally-binding referendum. Why would TM cave and give them the vote before Brexit is over considering all that has happened over the last two years has been a surge in support for the Tories; by not allowing a 2nd ref they are emboldening Tory support and the idea that the Tories are the only unionist party.

-----

Anyway, some big hitters at risk of losing their seats if John Curtice is correct, including Angus Robertson and John Nicolson.
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Old April 24th, 2017, 09:34 AM   #14762
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TM has caved to pressure before, and her stance on an early GE was certainly stronger than "now is now the time".

I don't think that a long term pattern of the SNP/Greens winning elections and then being denied their policy on a vote. No idea how it will happen, perhaps going ahead and having an unsanctioned vote, but it isn't a stable position for any democracy.

Like it or not, a Tory majority denying a mandate to Scotland whilst claiming a mandate itself won't just anger nationalists, it will like anger a significant chunk of non-Tory voters, 75-80%..
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Old April 24th, 2017, 11:10 AM   #14763
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Originally Posted by Crunchy_Kipper View Post
East Dunbartonshire is one to watch, currently held by John Nicolson. Jo Swinson, the past candidate and MP has been chosen as the LD candidate.
She'd be the one that disgraced herself last time?

Last edited by milton; April 24th, 2017 at 12:10 PM.
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Old April 24th, 2017, 12:38 PM   #14764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaeguDuke View Post
TM has caved to pressure before, and her stance on an early GE was certainly stronger than "now is now the time".

I don't think that a long term pattern of the SNP/Greens winning elections and then being denied their policy on a vote. No idea how it will happen, perhaps going ahead and having an unsanctioned vote, but it isn't a stable position for any democracy.

Like it or not, a Tory majority denying a mandate to Scotland whilst claiming a mandate itself won't just anger nationalists, it will like anger a significant chunk of non-Tory voters, 75-80%..
It's not a stable position, nor would any self-respecting government or supra-government organisation recognise an illegal referendum. I think the current strategy works for both sides, it's building the Tory vote in Scotland, whilst Sturgeon would likely rather not have an indyref asap because winning if far from certain.
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Old April 24th, 2017, 01:00 PM   #14765
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I think that Sturgeon is keen on one. Brexit means she can hope to win over Remain voters, plus it will mean a significant proportion of EU citizens vote for independence. My guess is that the SNP are just watching another Tory government slow down the economy and flail during the Brexit talks, which gives people reason to vote Yes.

Either Sturgeon is happy with the status quo, in which case getting Holyrood to vote for another vote was reckless, or we'll see the rhetoric step up. My guess is that the SNP are concentrating on the council and now general elections, and that they're just happily waiting for England to vote in a Tory landslide.
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Old April 24th, 2017, 01:06 PM   #14766
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaeguDuke View Post
I think that Sturgeon is keen on one. Brexit means she can hope to win over Remain voters, plus it will mean a significant proportion of EU citizens vote for independence. My guess is that the SNP are just watching another Tory government slow down the economy and flail during the Brexit talks, which gives people reason to vote Yes.

Either Sturgeon is happy with the status quo, in which case getting Holyrood to vote for another vote was reckless, or we'll see the rhetoric step up. My guess is that the SNP are concentrating on the council and now general elections, and that they're just happily waiting for England to vote in a Tory landslide.
Well Sturgeon wouldn't get to set the referendum rules, if it was done under general election rules then E.U. citizens don't get a vote, similar to the Brexit referendum. Secondly, there is evidence as many leave voters have switched to No as remain voters have switched to Yes. Additionally there is also research, polling etc that shows Scotland is more eurosceptic than people assume. Personally, I think "we must be members of the single market" is far from emotive enough to inspire independence, especially as the polls have shown no surge for yes and we're now ten months on from the Brexit referendum.

There are many in the upper echelons of the SNP that believe perpetual Tory rule at WM is far more emotive than the E.U. could ever be in inspiring voters to vote Yes. I think May is going to do the 2021 strategy, where she will allow a referendum during the 2021 parliament, meaning the SNP and the Greens need to achieve a pro-independence majority again, which is possible but the SNP would have been in power for 15 years then and the burden of government normally begins to eat at a party's support by then.
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Old April 24th, 2017, 01:30 PM   #14767
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Originally Posted by Crunchy_Kipper View Post
Well Sturgeon wouldn't get to set the referendum rules
EU citizens were allowed to vote last time, if there is another referendum vote before Brexit I can't imagine May being able to force a different voters roll.

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Secondly, there is evidence as many leave voters have switched to No as remain voters have switched to Yes.
1m voted Leave, 1.7m voted Remain. I'd bet a handsome sum that a lot of the Leave voters were already No voters, and a big chunk will be turning out to vote Tory in May and June. Throw in the EU citizens and Remain would have likely won by nearly a million votes, which is where the SNP will concentrate.

Quote:
Additionally there is also research, polling etc that shows Scotland is more eurosceptic than people assume.
Quote:
I think May is going to do the 2021 strategy, where she will allow a referendum during the 2021 parliament, meaning the SNP and the Greens need to achieve a pro-independence majority again
I think that the SNP's best chances are 2019, or a decade on from there. On the face of it I would be very surprised if any party managed such a long period of uninterrupted popularity.

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the SNP would have been in power for 15 years then and the burden of government normally begins to eat at a party's support by then.
Which is the same argument that people said before the last GE, and the two Holyrood elections before that. I've been reading articles about their imminent collapse in support for a good decade now, and yet it looks like the SNP will have a (Scottish) Westminster majority until 2022.

Look, my argument is not that any independence referendum will be won, the numbers are way too close and Brexit/unending Tory rule/devolution all muddy the water. My argument is that there is a mandate for one, undoubtedly to be renewed in May and June, which TM will struggle to deny (legal competences aside which hardly inspire devotion to the UK). Furthermore I think that 2019 is best chance for independence due to the EU, fresh Tory majority, and the votes of EU citizens. The SNP must be thinking that 2019 is their best chance, and if not they could be out of power in Holyrood by 2021 for a decade. I guess we'll see come June. My bet is that if they are returned with a majority and push for a second vote then "computer says no" won't really work.
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Old April 24th, 2017, 01:36 PM   #14768
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Quote:
“It can be safely predicted that if the Tories pick up anything above eight of the 59 Westminster seats, the dream – or nightmare – of IndyRef2 is over.

“But if the Tories score less than six seats, the chances of a second independence referendum are in the balance. If the Tories score less than this, it will be difficult for them to claim anything like a mandate for blocking a vote by the Scottish people.”
Did you write this Quill?

If the Tories win 8, and the SNP "only" win 49 then it means that the Tories have a mandate and the SNP do not. What bizarro democracy do we live in?
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Old April 24th, 2017, 09:05 PM   #14769
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaeguDuke View Post
TM has caved to pressure before, and her stance on an early GE was certainly stronger than "now is now the time".
The "pressure" however is a minority government that is losing support and a group of MPs that are mainly compromised of complete no-hopers who'd look out of their depth in a council chamber. Meanwhile the "pressure" to hold a general election was the prospect of a three-figure majority.

Not exactly hard to see the different.

Quote:
I don't think that a long term pattern of the SNP/Greens winning elections and then being denied their policy on a vote. No idea how it will happen, perhaps going ahead and having an unsanctioned vote, but it isn't a stable position for any democracy.
We'll have to differ on that one, I expect.

Quote:
Like it or not, a Tory majority denying a mandate to Scotland whilst claiming a mandate itself won't just anger nationalists, it will like anger a significant chunk of non-Tory voters, 75-80%..
Yet strangely, the majority agree with Theresa May on this one - and indeed the Tories are polling pretty well in Scotland.
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Old April 24th, 2017, 09:10 PM   #14770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaeguDuke View Post
Did you write this Quill?

If the Tories win 8, and the SNP "only" win 49 then it means that the Tories have a mandate and the SNP do not. What bizarro democracy do we live in?
We live in a United Kingdom, in case you haven't noticed. The UK Government is obliged to hold the confidence of the House of Commons, not of Scottish nationalists - and it is of course the UK Government that has the legal authority here.

Incidentally, I wouldn't concern yourself with a single thing Matt Qvortrup has to say about anything. The man is a waste of time.
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Old Yesterday, 01:35 AM   #14771
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I'll just leave this new poll here.

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 37% (-4)
No: 55% (+8)

(via Kantar TNS / surveyed pre-May announcement)
Chgs. w/ Sep 2016.
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Old Yesterday, 08:42 AM   #14772
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crunchy_Kipper View Post
I'll just leave this new poll here.

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 37% (-4)
No: 55% (+8)

(via Kantar TNS / surveyed pre-May announcement)
Chgs. w/ Sep 2016.
Also, TNS polling from April 11th also says 34N/53Y. For reference, pre-2014 they had Yes in the low-30s, No in the low-40s, with a high proportion of unknowns. Fewer people are uncertain now. Other polls like Survation and Panelbase have historically measured a smaller gap. Most recently, 43N/48Y and 43N/52Y respectively. TNS might not be wrong, but they seem to be separate from the pack.

For the moment though, IMHO the general election throws the whole indyref2 thing off course. May has overshadowed everything with a general election all about brexit. Whether or not indyref2 comes to pass is on hold until we know more about the next government is, and what their brexit intentions are.
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Old Yesterday, 10:51 AM   #14773
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I think that both are fairly obvious, the Tories are going to win by a landslide thanks mainly to English voters, Lab will continue their downward trend, LibDems will gain some
extra seats, SNP get the majority of seats in Scotland, then it's back to our regular programming of Theresa May's hard brexit.
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Old Yesterday, 11:36 AM   #14774
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Jamie Ross, Buzzfeed News tweeted this photo this morning



SNP sending out four embargoed press releases in one day, it seems the SNP realise this is a straight fight between them and the Tories now.
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Old Yesterday, 11:55 AM   #14775
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It is. Of course it is; SNP have adopted the mantle once occupied by Labour, and then some.

What will be interesting in the Scottish picture: will Labour lose their seat (as seems likely)?; will Labour gain no others?; how many will the tories gain?; will the lib dems see a slight revival, too? how many seats will the SNP lose?

Nobody could reasonably expect the SNP to take 56 seats again, but also I assume they're gonna get 50 or more this time around. Still an absurdly strong position for them.
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Old Yesterday, 01:29 PM   #14776
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Originally Posted by sds View Post
It is. Of course it is; SNP have adopted the mantle once occupied by Labour, and then some.

What will be interesting in the Scottish picture: will Labour lose their seat (as seems likely)?; will Labour gain no others?; how many will the tories gain?; will the lib dems see a slight revival, too? how many seats will the SNP lose?

Nobody could reasonably expect the SNP to take 56 seats again, but also I assume they're gonna get 50 or more this time around. Still an absurdly strong position for them.
I think Ian Murray may hang on. He actually increased his majority at last election and may have solidified the tactical support a bit. As a non corbynite and last MP, he's got a little bit of the status of an independent in a funny kind of way.

I'd agree SNP on around 50. Interestingly, looks like conservatives may be set to pick up largest number of seats in Wales for first time in err...ever?
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Old Yesterday, 02:48 PM   #14777
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John Lamont MSP is resigning in order to focus on defeating the SNP in Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk; the SNP led by just over 300 votes in 2015.

So that means a by-election for a new MSP.
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Old Yesterday, 05:24 PM   #14778
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crunchy_Kipper View Post
They can have a majority in city councils, a majority of MPs, and even a majority of MSPs, infact they should hold an election solely on getting indyref 2 as their only policy, yet it still wouldn't give them the power to hold a legally-binding referendum. Why would TM cave and give them the vote before Brexit is over considering all that has happened over the last two years has been a surge in support for the Tories; by not allowing a 2nd ref they are emboldening Tory support and the idea that the Tories are the only unionist party.

-----

Anyway, some big hitters at risk of losing their seats if John Curtice is correct, including Angus Robertson and John Nicolson.
John Nicolson has been sent a suspect package, so it seems the unionists/loyalists are taking it up a level.

Quote:
Police probe package sent to SNP MP John Nicolson

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...-west-39704581
There was a poll the other day that said most Scots believe Holyrood should decide the timing of another referendum alone, not Westminster. May can't even say 'now is not the time' either. Politically pressure will build to boiling point and with suspect packages, i suggest it already is becoming that way.
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Old Yesterday, 05:26 PM   #14779
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crunchy_Kipper View Post
I'll just leave this new poll here.

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 37% (-4)
No: 55% (+8)

(via Kantar TNS / surveyed pre-May announcement)
Chgs. w/ Sep 2016.
You can leave it there without comment all you want, doesn't stop it being complete pish. Especially when that one(only) appears on the Daily Mail/Express front pages simultaneously.

Why didn't you post the other one that came out same time(49% yes)? That didn't appear on front pages of Mail/Express, funny that!

Last edited by anonymous_redrum; Yesterday at 05:45 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 06:04 PM   #14780
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Originally Posted by Quirinalian View Post
In any case, the late Baroness Thatcher does not represent the position of the UK Government, surprisingly enough.
Haha you sure about that? Although Thatcher was a moderate compared to this lot.

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I think that's all just a bit silly really. There have of course been two substantial white papers released on both EU negotiations and legislating for leaving the EU domestically. I'm not really sure how a parliamentary election can create a dictatorship - it seems to be the precise opposite - but I'm sure you've got some muddled justification for that.
Ripping up of their own Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 for said election, a UN report condemning UK Gov on treatment of the disabled and violations of their human rights, election fraud, paedo scandals, cover ups, and so on. Sounds pretty much like a dictatorship to me, maybe even worse.

Quote:
Hmm, I don't think that actually reflects anything other than an assertion. You see, just saying something doesn't make it the case. There is no legal basis whatsoever for this view, and it's a fairly significant thing that this country - and any legitimate political organisations within it - abide by the rule of law.
The Tories do not abide buy the rule of law(see above)...and neither do Labour for that matter(illegal wars).


Quote:
Well, the UK Parliament is the only body with the legal authority to make it happen.

The UK Parliament is of course the body that has full control over the constitution.
UDI is legal by International Law, US and Ireland anyone?

True there might be many court battles to come but does not make it illegal. Scotland is not Catalonia and if it wants independence it does not need anyone elses legal permission but the Scottish people themselves, they are sovereign.

Theresa May cannot say 'now is not the time' now that she called a snap election and she cannot say no either or risk being seen around the world as anti-democratic(again would get dragged out in courts). There is nothing stopping the Scot Gov from calling the date of the next referendum alone.

Irish reunification is what you should be really worried about, that is when the whole house of cards start to fall down.

Last edited by anonymous_redrum; Yesterday at 08:51 PM.
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