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View Poll Results: Will the ANC win back Cape Town and the Western Cape?
Yes- Viva ANC 2 4.55%
No- Viva DA/other 42 95.45%
Voters: 44. You may not vote on this poll

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Old February 8th, 2010, 04:52 PM   #1
Andrew_za
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ANC to win back Cape Town?

Rather controversial but; do you think the ANC will win back Cape Town, as well as the Western Cape in the upcoming elections? So far; the ANC has made it clear they are ready to "win back the city and province" But will they?

LOCAL ELECTION DATE: WEDNESDAY MAY 18TH 2011

What will it take for Western Cape residents to tick the ANC box in the next general election and hand the province back to the green, gold and black?
That is the question that the leadership of the ANC, perhaps more so than the Democratic Alliance, needs to answer. And, once it does, the party won't have long to win over the hearts and minds of the pariah province.

The DA already has the confidence of voters and it appears that the province is theirs to lose.

Challenges such as bridging the racial divide and challenging the DA's reputation in good governance — be it through undermining them or doing a better job — will take a dynamic leader.

The coloured line
The Coloured voting block in the Western Cape is often seen as the real decider when it comes to who will win the elections and gaining their support was crucial to Helen Zille in 2009.

But Professor Robert Mattes, a political scientist at the University of Cape Town, holds that race isn't the key issue when it comes to gaining votes in the province.

"The ANC need a leader with credibility," he said, noting that it isn't about the race of the party leader but the respect they have within the community. Mattes points out that many Coloureds who stayed at home in 2004 came out to vote in 2009.

In the most recent election, the credibility of the leader of the DA seemed to have enough weight to draw the voters out of their homes and into the polling booths. The manner in which the ANC hosts its events and the type of language it uses is also important notes Mattes — 10 points for Zille on how she reacted to President Jacob Zuma's trademark 'Mshini wam' with a song and dance of her own during the 2009 election.

The ANC won't be able to take voters from the DA in the Western Cape by appealing to old loyalties or cultural similarities, agrees Roland Henwood, a lecturer in politics at Pretoria University.

An effective strategy to win back the province would be to "prove that the DA fails in terms of governance," he said, "The line that the DA is only looking after the elite won't cut it."

Holiday-makers notice clean Cape
Interestingly, Henwood notes that in examining letters published outside of the Western Cape there is an impression that whatever the DA is doing is working.

Letters with phrases such as, "compared to where I come from", that note details such as neat entrances to towns and roads free of potholes, are being voiced by those who came to the Western Cape and were impressed.

Managing a popular domestic destination is an opportunity to show off the area during peak holiday times and, it would seem, a chance to gain support through results seen and not promises made.

Not Coping
As for the 200 000 voters who crossed Cope's box during the 2009 elections, their influence is unpredictable, Mattes said.

According to the Independent Electoral Commission, the DA got 989 132 votes (48.83 percent), the ANC 666 223 (32.89 percent) and Cope 183 763 (9.07 percent) with the Independent Democrats receiving 91 001 votes (4.49 percent).

Voters from across the colour line cheered Cope's rise to fame and the party attracted dissatisfied supporters right across the ballot sheet — and this means that opposition parties could also benefit if Cope's dissolution continues, Henwood noted.

The leadership of Cope immediately started to sink after winning a fair number of seats in the elections. Instead of trying to show that they are as effective an opposition as the DA they vanished and rumours of infighting arose. Lately their own youth association has called for all of their leaders to be fired.

"Cope had the potential to take huge amounts of ANC votes away, and the party still has potential to be effective and even rival bigger parties," Henwood said. With Cope's current leadership and policy issues it will not be a threat as it starts to fit the role and behaviour of a minority party.

"In 2009 Cope definitely played a role, but it's difficult to make predictions. If people break ranks once they may do it again."

Unofficial voter migration polity?
As a successful province, the Western Cape is seen as a popular destination for job seekers — especially those from the Eastern Cape, traditionally an ANC stronghold.

It is difficult to predict whether the movement of ANC supporters to the province will have an impact in the next general elections in 2013, but it would be "difficult to accept" that this is an intended manipulation on the part of the ANC, Henwood said.

Henwood states that one reality of the modern state is migration — especially from poor rural areas to urban areas. "Look at Zimbabwe — it's the failure of the Eastern Cape governance that is pushing people away more than anything," he points out.

Changing the regional view that the ANC disappointed when it had its chance and is now suddenly able to meet the needs of the voters seems to be a bridge too far. Especially considering that the DA will be pulling out all the stops to keep what they see as their launching pad to real political power.

Henwood holds that if the ANC councillors mobilise supporters to vote during elections on the back of proven service delivery and good governance, they can issue a real challenge to the DA in the province as good governance is what counts. Period.

The DA has retained control of Cape Town, winning 62% of the Vote.

Last edited by Andrew_za; May 22nd, 2011 at 08:01 PM.
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Old February 8th, 2010, 04:58 PM   #2
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are they cooked in the head? maybe in 100 years and maybe if half the Eastern Cape moves to Cape Town.
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Old February 8th, 2010, 06:20 PM   #3
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I honestly don't ever see that happening. Makes me smile
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Old February 8th, 2010, 06:39 PM   #4
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In this case, my decision is based purely on the way CT has been run over the past few years in comparison to it being under ANC rule. The City is cleaner, "safer" and and really works for the people.
IF we have a shift in management, I hope another coalition will be formed with the DA, ID and other smaller parties as done before.
Judging by the noise at the Cape Town Stadium, and other events when introducing Helen & Dan, there is a strong possibility the DA is here to stay
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Old February 9th, 2010, 08:45 AM   #5
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There is NO denying Cape Town is better governed than any other municipality in South Africa, there is NO denying the province of the Western Cape is better governed than any other province... anyone that disputes that is just so loyal to the "comrade party" they don't read the stats, see the awards and see the audit reports pertaining to municipal responsibility and governance. They've been posted on SSC many times.

Yes, the Eastern Capers migrate here... but they don't see: They migrate to the better life in a DA province form the mismanaged ANC province, then vote ANC here... That goes against all logic! But, as stated, we'll need faster inward migration to change the overall vote as quick as a matter of a couple years... especially with the negotiations I'll explain below, currently underway.

Yes, the Cape has major issues, but more answers and actions are presented here than anywhere else in the country... and yes, the screams at Cape Town Stadium shows the intense popularity the current government enjoys in the Cape (and the stadium crowd was an excellent cross-cultural mix).

With Zille in negotiations with De Lille currently... there is no chance the ANC will gain control of the Western Cape or Cape Town for that matter. A DeLille/Zille ticket would gain the coalition an immediate extra 10% of the vote in this province.
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Old February 9th, 2010, 09:01 AM   #6
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However, i have a deep mistrust of de Lille. In 2004 she really screwed over the people that voted for her. With regard to the eastern cape migration, one never knows it has been shown that people still vote along racial lines irrespective of poor service delivery. One can only hope that people carry over their dissatisfaction over to the ballot box and not only keep it on the streets through the protests.
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Old February 9th, 2010, 09:26 AM   #7
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If only the DA can get full control of the municipalities in the Southern Cape also, and not have to deal with all these coalitions. The ID really screwed the DA in George...although I must say the DA lot in George isn't the best either, but at the moment it's all such a mess...few years ago it was Oudtshoorn, Knysna and Bitou with these coalition problems and party-jumpers now it's George and the Eden district municipality on the brink of being put under provincial administration, just because people don't want to see eye-to-eye, just consider their own ego's thus jumping parties to suit their needs and turning anything into a political thing, including a drought-disaster. We really need full co-operation!!
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Old February 9th, 2010, 09:34 AM   #8
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I've noticed that trend. It's disgusting that metro-municipalities are generally better run and have better cooperative politics, whilst the smaller municipalities are often fraught with the worst internal politics, internal fighting and service delivery issues. I take Breede Valley Municipality for example, which controls Worcester... they are frikken hopeless!!! I call them, email them over and over again over very urgent matters, they do not bother to ever schedule a meeting, or to email or call you back... Cape Town, a huge administration covering 3.5million calls me back within hours and assists my endeavors wherever they can...

Sickening I tell you.
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Old February 11th, 2010, 10:21 AM   #9
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I truly wish that half the country will be controlled by an opposition party like the DA then we will see progress in SA as they will out perform each other for votes.

With the ANC people will vote for it even if shits on them on their heads. They will be angry and get the major out from office and get another ANC member who is more likely to do the same and its all good with the supporters.
In SA we need maybe 2 opposition parties than this endless junk like the PAC and FF Plus who both don't really believe in the constitution, and that KISS party should kiss their political dream good.
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Old February 12th, 2010, 12:34 PM   #10
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Province by province! The DA shall conquer
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Old February 12th, 2010, 01:35 PM   #11
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I dunno hey...its a tough one to call, the Western Cape will swing close in the years ahead. I think the DA will hold on, but dont be overly sure on that
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Old February 12th, 2010, 02:48 PM   #12
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They screwed up again... even the ANC councilors from Gugulethu sad they felt like liars as they organised the event; then Zuma canceled on them last minute made supporters extremely angry. The word from some of the people on the ground in the Cape at the moment, from the majority populous here, "Jirre, Zuma is 'n man-slet!" The ANC exec is now interfering in the local branches, in the hope to bolster then and prevent collapse.

Do not know how quickly the Capie voter will warm to the ANC again... they'll have to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Malema DOES NOT help them down here either.
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Old February 13th, 2010, 10:32 AM   #13
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all i'm saying is dont be surprised if they do. alot people in the rest of the country are losing faith in the da as they appear to be ignorin their duties in other provinces in an attempt to hold onto wc.
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Old February 13th, 2010, 11:12 AM   #14
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Isn't that quite contradictory a statement then? If the rest of the country are losing faith in them because they're focusing on the Western Cape, then logically they'd lose votes in other provinces, not the Western Cape.
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Old February 13th, 2010, 01:30 PM   #15
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The DA will win CT once again, and whether they win a majority in the province or not will not matter too much, because even in the case that they don't they will join up with other parties and win the majority.

Winning any other province is optimistic.
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Old February 13th, 2010, 02:30 PM   #16
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What is going to be interesting, is to watch things transpire around Zuma and if he can't keep it in his pants. Moral decay could end up being the one thing that may finally erode ANC support; sh*t, nothing else has worked upcountry, not the Mbeki saga, not AIDS-cock-ups, not corruption and not COPE.
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Old February 13th, 2010, 07:40 PM   #17
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ΛΛ Zuma is spitting on the face of many religious supporters by keeping his pants opened to the opposite species. When Zuma was still campaigning I will hear that many will pray and starve themselves food so that he could win and lead the country and now his doing his far payback by breaking all their religious beliefs.

ANC supporters are hardcore loyalists even if they will help them with nothing they will simple want another man from the Luthuli house. Most will say ANC supporters are going against all logic by keeping the same party in power and deliver nothing for them at local level, I say most ANC voters not only live in poverty but also dwell in high levels of ignorance therefore dont expect logic from them, they are likely to vote for anyone who leads the ANC even if he threatens to make them suffer after he wins and the ANC banks on that.
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Old February 14th, 2010, 12:17 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by annman View Post
What is going to be interesting, is to watch things transpire around Zuma and if he can't keep it in his pants. Moral decay could end up being the one thing that may finally erode ANC support; sh*t, nothing else has worked upcountry, not the Mbeki saga, not AIDS-cock-ups, not corruption and not COPE.
You're assuming ANC supporters do not support his ways, when in fact his conquests are seen in a positive light with many of them.
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Old February 14th, 2010, 12:21 PM   #19
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Also true, but I can imagine his escapades resulting in him losing more support than it they will gain him. I mean, it's bound to have pissed off a few people, and I highly doubt there's very many people who will suddenly support him because of all this drama.
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Old February 14th, 2010, 01:52 PM   #20
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I do not necessarily mean the ANC supporters themselves, but the ANC-NEC, they are reportedly extremely embarrassed by this. If Zuma does not calm down in the "dick-placed-in-anything" department, we could very well see the ANC top brass getting despondent and agitated by him globally giving them a very negative image, resulting in him being ousted as ANC-President; and we know what that means for the State President.
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