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Will Shanghai surpass Tokyo?

10K views 41 replies 34 participants last post by  London™ 
#1 ·
as we know, shanghai was the top asia leading city on 1920-30s,tokyo was second at that time...

afterWWII and 1949,communist party rule china, and economic develop stop from1949-1990....

since china open his market again in recent year,shanghai once again become the most important city in china,and it continous a fucking amazing speed of building the new shanghai,and government wants it take back what he lost in this 50years,.....to surpass tokyo,dominate asia again...

what guys do u think this thing?if it can, when?20years,50years? never?
 
#4 ·
shibuya_suki said:
as we know, shanghai was the top asia leading city on 1920-30s,tokyo was second at that time...
You'd better not forget about the obvious fact that Shanghai was the occupied territory by UK, USA, Japan, and France at that time.
but Tokyo was not of course. And Tokyo (and Osaka as well) has subway lines even before WW2.
 
#8 ·
Economic data of Shanghai
If the Population does not contain the floating population,things will be like this.
2002GDP:65.40billion us dollar
nominal increase rate:15.56% actual gdp increase rate:11.8%
2003GDP:75.58billion us dollar---Population:13.42million---GDP per capita:5632 us dollar
nominal increase rate:19.21% actual gdp increase rate:13.6%
2004GDP:90.10billion us dollar---Population:13.52million---GDP per capita:6664 us dollar
conjecture
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2005GDP:104.52billion us dollar---Population:13.62million---GDP per capita:7674 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2006GDP:121.24billion us dollar---Population:13.73million---GDP per capita:8830 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2007GDP:140.64billion us dollar---Population:13.84million---GDP per capita:10162 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2008GDP:163.14billion us dollar---Population:13.95million---GDP per capita:11695 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2009GDP:189.24billion us dollar---Population:14.06million---GDP per capita:13459 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:[2010 Shanghai EXPO]
2010GDP:219.52billion us dollar---Population:14.17million---GDP per capita:15492 us dollar


If the Population contains the floating population,things will be like this.
2002GDP:65.40billion us dollar
nominal increase rate:15.56% actual gdp increase rate:11.8%
2003GDP:75.58billion us dollar---Population:17.00million---GDP per capita:4446 us dollar
nominal increase rate:19.21% actual gdp increase rate:13.6%
2004GDP:90.10billion us dollar---Population:17.50million---GDP per capita:5149 us dollar
conjecture
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2005GDP:104.52billion us dollar---Population:18.00million---GDP per capita:5807 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2006GDP:121.24billion us dollar---Population:18.40million---GDP per capita:6589 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2007GDP:140.64billion us dollar---Population:18.80million---GDP per capita:7481 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2008GDP:163.14billion us dollar---Population:19.20million---GDP per capita:8497 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2009GDP:189.24billion us dollar---Population:19.60million---GDP per capita:9655 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:[2010 Shanghai EXPO]
2010GDP:219.52billion us dollar---Population:20.00million---GDP per capita:10976 us dollar
 
#9 ·
Shanghai should surpass Singapore and HK first.
 
#10 · (Edited)
If the Population contains the floating population,things will be like this.
2002GDP:65.40billion us dollar
2003:nominal increase rate:15.56% actual gdp increase rate:11.8%
GDP:75.58billion us dollar---Population:17.00million---GDP per capita:4446 us dollar
2004:nominal increase rate:19.21% actual gdp increase rate:13.6%
GDP:90.10billion us dollar---Population:17.50million---GDP per capita:5149 us dollar
conjecture
2005:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:104.52billion us dollar---Population:18.00million---GDP per capita:5807 us dollar
2006:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:121.24billion us dollar---Population:18.40million---GDP per capita:6589 us dollar
2007:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:140.64billion us dollar---Population:18.80million---GDP per capita:7481 us dollar
2008:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:163.14billion us dollar---Population:19.20million---GDP per capita:8497 us dollar
2009:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:189.24billion us dollar---Population:19.60million---GDP per capita:9655 us dollar
2010:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:[2010 Shanghai EXPO]
GDP:219.52billion us dollar---Population:20.00million---GDP per capita:10976 us dollar
2011:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:254.64billion us dollar---Population:20.40million---GDP per capita:12482 us dollar
2012:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:295.38billion us dollar---Population:20.80million---GDP per capita:14201 us dollar
2013:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:342.64billion us dollar---Population:21.20million---GDP per capita:16162 us dollar
2014:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:397.46billion us dollar---Population:21.60million---GDP per capita:18401 us dollar
2015:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:461.05billion us dollar---Population:22.00million---GDP per capita:20957 us dollar
 
#13 ·
It would be difficult, but nothing is impossible.
 
#14 ·
I think it will happen sometime around 2030-2060( if trends hold true). But if it beats Tokyo in economic importance between 2030-45 people will probably still think Tokyo over Shanghai
 
#18 ·
Madman said:
No. Well not in the 21st century i dont think. Shanghai has too much competition from Beijing and HK to outstrip Tokyo. I see it on a scale of like the German cities where there is no ultra-dominant city.
:yes:

well, even though shanghai is billed as china's premiere commercial city, there are too many large cities to compete with, not just beijing and hong kong but also guangzhou, shenzhen, and chonqing.
 
#19 ·
Chngjiang delta may become a super metro in the future
 
#20 ·
 
#21 ·
I HAVE NO IDEA :)
 
#22 ·
personally i don't think hk and sing could compare to shanghai or tokyo in scale ...
hk and sing are quite a bit richer than shanghai ...
they are small specialized gateway cities ...
hk and sing just doesn't have the backing
like what tokyo and shanghai has ...
plus they are small ...
however there functions will always be very important in asia ...

however i do see shanghai to be the king of asia
along with tokyo one day ...
however for shanghai to truly surpass tokyo in every single aspects ... i doubt if its possible in 30 years ...
as tokyo won't stop moving ...
and i also see seoul rising up the latter also ...
however i do see them being seen equal in
global importance term in 30 years or less
 
#24 ·
^the greatest potential of shanghai is only for the large developing market,huge population, and economic,thats you cant find such this potetial in the entire world now...

but no democracy,dictatorship,corruption,economic system still not mature as well as western countries,quality of citizen,government administrative eficient..... those problem still exist in shanghai,dont take too optimistic,there are so much social and political problem beside the greatest econmic potential of the world...
 
#26 ·
Sooner as Shanghai will not only increase in power and stature and wealth but the other end of the equation is that Tokyo and Japan will decline. Many estimates show that their population will go down by 25% by 2050 if present levels decline. And that is with the worlds longest lived people. So a big city with a lot of old people if they continue to stay there in a country which has a hard time tolerating migrants and integrating them will surely fade unless something dramatic (highly unlikely) happens in terms of demography.
 
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