Global jobs cuts 'could exceed 50M this year'
By Catherine Philp, Davos
Times On Line
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...article5604575.ece?token=null&offset=0&page=1
More than 50 million jobs could be lost worldwide by the end of this year as a result of the global economic meltdown, the United Nations warned.
The stunning estimate by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) came only hours after the opening of the World Economic Forum amid a deepening sense of gloom and helplessness among the global business elite.
The UN agency said that its worst-case scenario would see global employment soar from 6 per cent to 7.1 per cent, resulting in a loss of 51 million jobs across the globe since the crisis began in 2007.
The most optimistic forecast is for 18 million jobs to be lost, with the most realistic prediction somewhere in between at about 30 million.
Wherever the axe falls, however, the figures represented no less than a “global jobs crisis,” according to Juan Somavía, the director-general of the ILO.
"If the recession deepens in 2009, as many forecasters expect, the global jobs crisis will worsen sharply," Mr Somavía warned as he presented the agency’s annual report.
Even those who remain employed will not necessarily escape the effects of the recession, he said.
“We can expect that for many of those who manage to keep a job, earnings and other conditions of employment will deteriorate,” he said.
The crisis could also push another 200 million workers into extreme poverty as they eke out a living in informal, underpaid and unstable work, especially in Africa and South Asia, the ILO predicted.
That would swell the ranks of the “working poor” to 1.4 billion, just under half of the entire working population of the world.
News of a global jobs crisis will come as little surprise to the thousands who have lost their jobs in the days of economic carnage leading up to the conference.
On Friday, 30,000 Americans lost their jobs in big staff cuts by Caterpillar and Sprint Nextel, and ING, the Dutch bank, and Philips, the big electronics company, eliminated a total of 13,000 from their workforces.
A further 13,000 jobs were cut worldwide today.
Today the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for world economic growth and predicted a deeper than expected recession in the developed nations.
In Davos, the well-heeled Swiss ski resort where business and world leaders gather annually for the World Economic Forum, the mood was decidedly subdued.
Pre-conference receptions were dominated by chatter about who would not be attending, rather than who would.
The annual lecture by Richard Fuld, the former chief executive of the collapsed Lehman Brothers Holdings, has been cancelled.
Instead, the gathering this year will boast a higher number of heads of state and political leaders, a reflection of the sudden centre-stage that governments find themselves in as they intervene to prop up ailing private institutions.
Wen Jiabao and Vladimir Putin, the Chinese and Russia prime ministers, will address the conference today on their first visit to Davos.
At the time of their invitations, both leaders were riding high as the saviours of economies not yet buffeted by the turmoil that began in the US.
However, plummeting reserves and investment in Russia and slowing growth and soaring unemployment in China mean that neither power has as much to boast about.
The US, meanwhile, is at its most historically underrepresented as policymakers stay home in Washington, poring over the details of President Obama’s fiscal stimulus package.
The theme for the four-day forum is "Shaping the Post-Crisis World", but most senior delegates made it clear that they believe the crisis is far from over.
A survey presented on the eve of the conference highlighted a global crisis of confidence among chief executives at the world’s leading companies at the prospect for recovery.
An opening press conference by the meeting’s strategic partners underlined the sense of gloom.
Rupert Murdoch, the chief executive of News Corporation, the parent company of The Times and Times Online, said that the crisis was deepening and could take five years to turn around.
"It's going to take drastic action to turn it around, if it can be turned around quickly," he said. "Personally, I believe it will take some time.
"The great majority of the people in the world are depressed and traumatised by the fact that their savings, the wealth in their homes or pension funds ... a big percentage of it has disappeared."
Kofi Annan, the former UN Secretary-General, identified “three interrelated crises: a global recession, energy insecurity and climate change”.
Stephen Green, the chairman of HSBC, one of few high-profile financiers to attend, said: "There are no magic wands and even crystal balls are in short supply."
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Global Economic Crisis Raises Risk Of Social Unrest In Asia
Yahoo News
http://ph.news.yahoo.com/afp/20090215/tbs-finance-economy-asia-unrest-social-e65dddb_1.html
AFP - Sunday, February 15SINGAPORE (AFP) - - The global economic crisis heightens the potential for social unrest in Asia, where millions of people suddenly out of work will demand governments take swift and decisive action, analysts say.
And while the prospect of regimes being overthrown is remote at the moment, they say, it will depend also on how long and how deep the financial turmoil goes, in a region not unfamiliar with major political upheaval.
"It's impossible to predict at the moment but the historical record suggests that serious and protracted economic crises may have, in some cases, serious political impact," said Tim Huxley.
The executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Asia cited Europe's experience during the Great Depression in the 1930s which fuelled the rise of far-right political movements in the run-up to World War II.
"At the moment there's no reason to think that the present crisis will lead to major instability in any Southeast Asian country but it is simply too early to say," Huxley said.
US intelligence chief Dennis Blair last week warned that the current crisis -- the worst since the Great Depression -- could lead to "regime-threatening instability" worldwide.
John Harrison, a security analyst at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said that how citizens perceive the effectiveness of government responses to the meltdown is crucial.
"If the public perceives that the government response is reasonable, then they may be less likely to pursue violent means. But the opposite could also be true," Harrison said.
Extremist groups in the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia could attempt to ride on social discontent spawned by the crisis to pursue their political agenda, he added.
Political analysts in Indonesia said the world's fourth-largest population will be vulnerable to social unrest ahead of and during parliamentary elections in April and presidential polls in July.
"If the country's economic fundamental weakens, social problems cannot be avoided especially when the crisis continues to force more companies to lay off their employees," said Bantarto Bandoro, from the University of Indonesia.
Kusnanto Anggoro, of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said some groups could exploit economic conditions to mobilise "massive demonstrations that will cause social unrest."
Riots, triggered in part by an Asian financial crisis, led to the downfall of then-president Suharto in 1998.
In China, where the government grapples with thousands of violent protests annually, focus is on instability that could arise after millions of migrant workers who have lost their jobs in the cities return to their rural hometowns.
Beijing, always fearful of social unrest, said at least 20 million migrant workers had been left jobless so far, indicating the figure could be even higher.
The Communist Party's mouthpiece, the People's Daily, said a top national public security committee had identified jobless migrants as a key area of concern.
"The flood of unemployed migrants poses big challenges to social stability in the countryside," said Professor Ren Yuan, a labour, migration and population studies expert at Shanghai's Fudan University.
"If they cannot find work in rural areas the situation in the countryside will further deteriorate."
Of particular concern are large numbers of younger migrants whose connection to rural lifestyles has been severed, Ren said.
"If the second generation loses jobs in the city and can't find work in rural areas, and can't or don't want to become farmers, then they are left idle, which certainly increases social instability in rural areas."
In Bangladesh, analysts differed on whether the global economic crisis is a security threat.
Imtiaz Ahmed, a professor of international relations at Dhaka University, said Bangladesh's vital garment exports have remained robust despite the global downturn.
He said Islamic militancy has been the country's major security problem over the last few years, but the militants' influence is on the wane.
"Massive job losses in the coming months or years would not lead to their resurgence as the Islamic militancy in Bangladesh is the direct result of inner struggle within Islam, not any other reasons," Ahmed said.