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Old Yesterday, 10:18 PM   #10141
milton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthLimitation View Post
Here we are, seats previously held by Labour.

SNP: 43%
LAB: 37%
CON: 13%
GRN: 2%
UKP: 2%
LIB: 2%

Interestingly we're seeing the largest swings in areas where the Labour vote is strongest.
Fairly dodgy methodology used though:

Quote:
UPDATE II : I've now had a chance to look at the datasets, and they are truly bizarre. ComRes have indeed committed the cardinal sin of weighting by recalled 2010 vote - but when they asked people how they voted in 2010, they didn't even give the SNP as an option! The only options were Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, or "some other party". That approach will take quite a bit of justifying, given that the SNP outpolled both the Tories and the Lib Dems in 2010. (Even in 2010.)

I can think of two possible explanations for what ComRes have done - either a) stupidity, or b) it's a cunning plan to try to make people less confused over how they voted in 2010, ie. if you don't even offer the SNP as an option, people who voted Labour in 2010 but then switched to the SNP in 2011 might be more likely to answer the question accurately. You'd have to be ultra-charitable to think that was the plan, but even it was, it doesn't appear to have worked to any great extent. Respondents who say they voted for "some other party" have been downweighted from to 264 to 207, meaning that the SNP's position may well have been underestimated due to false recall.

At the very least, the use of 2010 weighting means that this poll is not directly comparable with any full-scale Scottish poll, and so the superficial appearance that it may be marginally less awful for Labour than the results we've seen from other firms is fairly meaningless.

The point I made above about where the Liberal Democrats' lost votes are going is borne out by the datasets - fractionally more Lib Dem voters from 2010 are planning to vote Labour than for the SNP, but that is being offset by a much bigger shift from Labour to the SNP than the headline numbers would suggest.

Perhaps the most devastating detail of the poll from Labour's point of view is that just 33% of respondents say that Labour is the party they most closely identify with, irrespective of their current voting intention. The SNP are only just behind on that measure, on 31%. Remember these numbers are only from seats that Labour won in 2010, in most cases by a massive margin. It really does look as if a large number of ex-Labour voters are not merely "on holiday", but have undergone their own personal revolution, and as a result are not coming back any time soon.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/20...bour-held.html
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