The Economic Outlook

[Lord Salba]

I'm just joking.

PS,

[asdfg]

I'm surprised you're attacking the excellent Japanese growth results by accusing them of making up the GDP.

A far more obvious criticism would be around Abenomics and how the growth was achieved through government spending (i.e. debt) and printing money.

I do like how you're mixing it up a bit nowadays, so fair play to you.

[ryan79]

Originally Posted by LanceDriver

^ he will always draw only one conclusion ... "she'll be right mate coz we're booming. Aussie, Aussie, Aussie ..."

We have been so far.

[ryan79]

Originally Posted by Lord Salba

My impression of Ryan:


SHE'LL BE FUCKEN RIGHT MAAAAATTTTE!

(cracks tinnie as he hops out of his HSV ute and yells GET A FUCKEN JOB YA BLUDGIN CUNT at the single mother that lives next door)

To be fair I have been harsh most of my life due to my experience of seeing absolute dead shit waste of space cunts get free money. Just obvious rorting of the system and yet nothing is done. It can be hard to see past that sometimes.

I should lighten up more, they are more than likely the minority. I just wish there was something that could be done. Dobbing in cheats to Centrelink achieves nothing. I know because I've done it half a dozen times.

[AndyGM]

Originally Posted by ryan79

We have been so far.

In a rare show of support for Nate, I actually agree that the 'she'll be right' attitude is dangerous.

Australia is ok today because hard decisions were made twenty years ago. Hard decisions are not being made today, which bodes very ill for the future.

[Sanj]

Originally Posted by AndyGM

In a rare show of support for Nate, I actually agree that the 'she'll be right' attitude is dangerous.

Australia is ok today because hard decisions were made twenty years ago. Hard decisions are not being made today, which bodes very ill for the future.

agree and this she'll be right attitude is what will wipe out a lot of individuals and businesses

[ryan79]

You can have a "she'll be right" optimistic attitude and have a "prepare for the worst" pessimistic attitude at the same time. For example I honestly do think she'll be right but I'm fairly well prepared for the worst, just in case.

[LanceDriver]

Originally Posted by AndyGM

In a rare show of support for Lance, I actually agree that the 'she'll be right' attitude is dangerous.

Australia is ok today because hard decisions were made twenty years ago. Hard decisions are not being made today, which bodes very ill for the future.

Thanks for the support, much appreciated.

Exactly.

[Samuel77]

Originally Posted by AndyGM

In a rare show of support for Nate, I actually agree that the 'she'll be right' attitude is dangerous.

Australia is ok today because hard decisions were made twenty years ago. Hard decisions are not being made today, which bodes very ill for the future.

Andy,

You have probably mentioned this before, and if you have, then apologies, but please indulge me, what do you consider to be the important economic reforms that need addressing in our our economy and political system?

[AndyGM]

From a microeconomic perspective there are still quite a few big ones out there.

The tax system needs a lot of work, with this becoming more important as technology changes (see the Henry Tax Reivew); the industrial relations system still needs work to encourage productivity; protectionist policies such as tariffs, non-tariff barriers (such as parallel import restrictions on books) and subsidies for inefficient industries are costing the country tens of billions per year; and efficiency in infrastructure pricing is a major problem which is really hampering productivity growth.

[Mornnb]

Originally Posted by AndyGM

In a rare show of support for Nate, I actually agree that the 'she'll be right' attitude is dangerous.

Australia is ok today because hard decisions were made twenty years ago. Hard decisions are not being made today, which bodes very ill for the future.

Carbon tax doesn't count as a hard decision? The decarbonisation of the economy is the most important economic reform on the table.

[AndyGM]

To big a leap for many it appears...

Personally I try not to think about carbon pricing to much these days. I find it too depressing.

Thankfully economics should come to the rescue there anyway. If electricity consumption can be charged efficiently (ie cost reflective pricing) the roll-out of solar pv should decimate our emissions.

[Extare]

Originally Posted by Lord Salba

As for the USA:

May 2013.

"Previous to the change, when a company paid money into a pension plan, the money was counted as wages in the GDP calculation. After the change, what companies have promised to pay in the future, not what they are actually paying, will be added to GDP. "

In other words, if a company "promises" to fund retirees a certain figure in the future, lets say 100 million dollars, then GDP is calculated as having increased by 100 million dollars. Whether they actually pay the money or not is irrelevant for the GDP calculation.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is no secret, this is how they do it now.

It would be nice, Mr Salba, to actually source your quotes, since that quote's clearly not from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. If anyone is actually curious as to the reason behind the accounting change:

"BEA will change its recording of the transactions of defined benefit pension plans from a cash accounting basis to an accrual accounting basis.

Accrual accounting is the preferred method for compiling national accounts because it matches incomes earned from production with the corresponding productive activity and records both in the same period"

Source.

Defined pension plans are a legal liability. They're not airy-fairy promises. Any shortfall in a pension fund legally must be made up for by the employer.

[Lord Salba]

Originally Posted by Extare

Any shortfall in a pension fund legally must be made up for by the employer.

How many pension funds have failed in the US? Where the employees ended up with nothing? A lot.

How many US workers with defined benefits plans end up with just a fraction of the promised amount? A lot.

Promises are now added to the US GDP figure.

And that, is a fact.

[Extare]

Data please, not assertions, thank you.

Private pensions are indirectly guaranteed by the Federal Government, anyway. A failed plan doesn't mean no payout. Regardless, since defined benefit plans are falling out of favour in, the main impact of this accounting change will be on past growth figures, not future ones.

GDP has problems as a measurement of economic activity. But this is really the least of worries.

[Ducko]

Some interesting stats from the ABS via Fairfax.

Australia's lowest jobless rate

Date
May 16, 2013



Glenda Kwek
Business Reporter

Six out of the 10 regions with the lowest unemployment rate are in NSW.

NSW has some of the lowest jobless rates in Australia, a new breakdown of unemployment data by regions shows.

Six out of the top 10 regions in Australia with the lowest unemployment rate for April were from NSW, a CommSec analysis of detailed labour force data from the Bureau of Statistics, released on Thursday, showed.

The unemployment rate was just 2.1 per cent in Sydney's Northern Beaches - the lowest in Australia and a fall from 3.2 per cent in the same month last year.

The St George-Sutherland region had a 2.9 per cent jobless rate, while the eastern suburbs recorded a 3.2 per cent unemployment rate. Following closely behind was Inner Sydney and Inner Western Sydney, with jobless rates of 3.4 and 3.6 per cent respectively.
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Far western NSW was ranked eighth with an unemployment rate of 3.7 per cent (for the month of March).

At the same time, the state also reported the highest unemployment rate by region - 13.3 per cent - in the Illawarra excluding Wollongong (Wollongong recorded a jobless rate of 7.1 per cent).

“Regions close to Sydney, Perth and Brisbane are doing best in the job stakes but job-seekers are facing tougher times in Tasmania, in outer areas of Melbourne and in northern Adelaide,” CommSec chief economist Craig James said in an economic note.

Mr James added that NSW was fast becoming the lowest jobless state, snatching the mantle away from Western Australia, a reflection of a possible shift away from mining into other industries as the resources investment boom reaches its peak this year.

The unemployment rate is a key factor in how the Reserve Bank determines the cash rate.

Earlier this month, the central bank slashed interest rate down to 2.75 per cent, the lowest in half-a-century, following a spate of soft economic data and a weaker-than-expected unemployment rate for March.

Australia's jobless rate fell in April by 0.1 per cent to 5.5 per cent as the economy picked up more than 50,000 new jobs.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...516-2joox.html