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"Bailout" exit December 15th as IMF/EU/ECB prepare to jump ship

5K views 16 replies 4 participants last post by  thebig C 
#1 · (Edited)
On Friday there will be several events to mark this occasion - the first Eurozone country to exit a bailout program successfully. But I think we all knew this would be the case many months a go. On Friday the IMF will leave this country and as the Taoiseach said he will see them to the plane.

The most important thing is that this never happens again and that the incompetent should not be allowed to bring us to the edge of the abyss like they did.

Three years ago this country was in free fall economically. There was a feeling no one was in charge and that chaos reigned. Property prices were plunging, tax revenues diving, banks bust and unemployment soaring. Let's be honest and say hell was just around the corner.

Today property prices are rising, exports are at record levels, employment is surging and unemployment is falling rapidly, bond yields are at record lows, consumer confidence is high, the banks are paying back what we put in, PMI's are the highest in Europe, revenues are surging, we have connected with the overseas diaspora that are desperate to help like never before etc.

A complete turnaround and I have to say this government has surprised me. I think they have done a very good job. But so have the Irish people. We had none of the strike chaos they had in Greece or Spain. We had no social unrest. I think pragmatism won the day and i'm proud of the stoicism with which Irish people have met adversity.

It's not over yet. But Friday and Sunday will both be historic days and whilst there is more correction to come I think we should be proud of how we met this challenge and have seemingly won against all odds.

Onwards and upwards - hopefully! :banana:
 
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#2 · (Edited)
#3 · (Edited)
From disaster to recovery - Irish sovereign 10 year bond yield graph.



Today the spread between Irish bonds and German bunds hit a new low of 164 basis points.

Tradeweb ‏@Tradeweb 11h
Ireland 10Y benchmark bond mid-yield: 3.49%; Spread v. 10Y German bund 164; -4.5 bps from prev close
 
#4 ·
Should be interesting...
Taoiseach to address nation over bailout exit
Updated: 15:56, Wednesday, 11 December 2013

Taoiseach Enda Kenny is to give a national televised address on Sunday night to coincide with Ireland's exit from the bailout programme.

The Opposition will also be afforded airtime by RTÉ after Mr Kenny's address.

Mr Kenny has said that while Ireland will "not be flush with money on Monday morning", the exit from the bailout this weekend will provide a psychological impetus to people.

The Taoiseach said his televised message will be one of thanks to the people for Ireland for having to make exceptional sacrifices, as part of a process of fixing the public finances and getting people back to work.

Speaking this afternoon, he said there is a long way to go, but said credit is due to the people of Ireland, who have put up with difficulties and challenges.

Mr Kenny said "the shutters go up behind us" on Monday and Ireland is not going back to the culture that caused the problems.

Safeguards and regulations have been put in place so that does not happen, he added.

The Taoiseach said Ireland now has to move forward with a medium-term economic strategy, which will show the signposts for the time ahead.

His address, expected to be about six minutes in duration, will be shown after the Nine News on RTÉ One this Sunday.

Broadcasts by Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Independents will be aired around the main RTÉ television news bulletins on Monday.

Several ministers, including Minister for Finance Michael Noonan and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin, will give a number of briefings and interviews on Friday regarding the bailout exit.

Story from RTÉ News:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/1211/492216-enda-kenny-bailout/
 
#5 · (Edited)
"Never has so much been owed to so few"? ;)


The NYT had an interesting article to say the least both for it's inaccuracy and at times incredulous humor.

Are we really reduced to shooting pigeons for food?

Controversial New York Times article paints alarming picture of post-boom Ireland






First published:
Thu, Dec 12, 2013, 14:15
14

It’s a land where people are reduced to shooting pigeons for food and two thirds of homeowners are behind on their mortgages.

Recognise it? It’s post-boom Ireland. That’s according to an article in the New York Times which is generating a flurry of comment on Twitter.

Under the headline - Hardships linger for a mending Ireland - the article, published yesterday, paints an undeniably grim picture of life in post-bailout Ireland.

To make its case, it zeros in on a man who says he was forced to move into his mother’s small cottage in Shankill in Dublin - which we are told is only 10 minutes from Bono’s house - after his hardware business went belly-up in the crash.

He says he shoots pigeons for food and grills them outdoors to reduce his gas and grocery bills. “I do that just to live,” he says.

The article contrasts the recent positive sentiment around Ireland’s bailout exit with the hardship being faced by people on the ground.

However, it makes some rather spurious claims along the way.

Perhaps, most startling is the assertion that two-thirds of homeowners have not paid their mortgage “on time for the last two years”.

While the mortgage crisis here is bad, even dire, the figure, wrongly attributed to the Central Bank, grossly overstates the problem.

The bank’s most recent arrears figures suggest 18.5 per cent of mortgage holders are in arrears of some sort or other.

They also indicate that 22 per cent of those currently in arrears are behind in their payments for at least two years or more.

Needless to say, the true mortgage arrears figures bear little relation to those in the New York Times article.

A Central Bank spokeswoman told The Irish Times today it had contacted the New York Times, seeking changes to the figures attributed to it in the article.

The article also claims “Prime Minister Enda Kenny” is planning to introduce a further €2.5 billion in spending cuts and new taxes in next year’s budget when no such decision has been taken.

The article concludes with a quote from a hard-pressed hospital worker who says: “We’ve already tried to live five years on nothing. If they push things much more, it’ll kill us.”

It’s a pretty uncompromising portrait, even if the mortgage numbers are a little sexed up.


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/irel...educed-to-shooting-pigeons-for-food-1.1625588

Despite the tax rises and cuts effecting the domestic side of the economy one sector gets precedent over every other and it's probably kept us above water through the crises.

Amid Cuts And Tax Hikes, Tech Companies Get Love in Ireland
 
#9 ·
The NYT had an interesting article to say the least both for it's inaccuracy and at times incredulous humor.
Very poorly written article, especially the figures that they essentially just made up regarding mortgage arrears and next year's budget!

And on the other thing... 'NY Times was wrong: I don't have to hunt pigeons to survive'.

Government to mark end of Troika/IMF bailout
Updated: 10:14, Friday, 13 December 2013

The Government is to mark the end of the three-year Troika bailout today, the last working day of the programme.

It formally expires on Sunday night, the third anniversary of the approval of the Irish programme application by the board of the International Monetary Fund.

Over that time there have been four and a half months of meetings with Troika officials, 260 programme actions completed and €67bn borrowed.

The country has fewer, smaller banks. The yield on Government bonds is now at 3.5%, down from a peak of 14.5%.

The Government will mark the day mostly by giving interviews to international media.

There will also be a news conference by Minister for Finance Michael Noonan and Minister for Public Expenditure Brendan Howlin to reflect on all that has happened and look ahead to what comes next.

EU Commission Vice-President Olli Rehn has said, in retrospect, the decision to introduce the blanket bank guarantee by the Government was a mistake.

However, he said it was now "water under the bridge".

On RTÉ's Prime Time last night, Mr Rehn spoke for the first time of his shock when he was told about the scale of Ireland's banking debt.

He said he was made aware of the seriousness of the banking problem by the then Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan in September 2010.

'Not out of the woods yet' - Rabbitte

Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Pat Rabbitte has said there is a psychological advantage to being out of the Troika programme, but that we were "not out of the woods yet".

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland Mr Rabbitte said it was an uncertain world and growth was uneven in the Eurozone.

Responding to questions about Ireland's bank debt, Mr Rabbitte said the debt was "challengingly high".

He said there had not been burden sharing, and Ireland had taken "a hit for the team" by helping to prevent the spread of contagion to European banks.

He said the European Central Bank prevented senior bondholders from taking a proportional share of the hit, and we now had a moral authority behind our case for some amelioration of the debt burden.

Sinn Féin says 'Troika mindset' will remain

Sinn Féin Finance Spokesperson Pearse Doherty has said that while the Troika will be leaving Ireland, the Troika mindset remains firm in Government Buildings.

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Doherty said he believed there would be more austerity heaped on the Irish public in next budget.

He said that people who had suffered under austerity would be asking what the real difference will be for them, after Ireland exits the bailout.

Mr Doherty said the resources the country had should have been used to get the economy back on track, instead of providing money to failed banks.

He said what Sinn Féin had argued for is what Europe now accepts - that senior bondholders should have been burned.

"The problem is that, from our point of view that, we didn't have a government at the time that was willing to stand up for Irish interests.

"Instead what they did is they bowed down on bended knees to the European diktat.

"They bailed out the banks and unfortunately over the three years it was the Irish people that suffered."

The news conference by Michael Noonan and Brendan Howlin will be streamed LIVE on RTÉ News Now from 10.30am.

Read Business Editor David Murphy's blog on the bailout here.


Story from RTÉ News:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/1213/492576-bailout/
Does any one else think that the so-called 'Troika mindset' remaining isn't necessarily a bad thing? You know, the whole 'living within our means' (to quote a former Taoiseach) thing is probably a good idea.
 
#6 · (Edited)
‘Sense of achievement’ as Ireland leaves bailout


Published: Thursday, 12 Dec 2013 | 8:32 PM ET


Irish finance minister: 'Great sense of achievement'

Thursday, 12 Dec 2013 | 5:36 PM ET

CNBC's Julia Chatterley caught up with Irish finance minister Michael Noonan, and asked him how he's feeling as Dublin prepares to exit its aid program.

As Ireland gets ready to exit its bailout program this weekend, Finance Minister Michael Noonan tells CNBC that there is a sense of achievement that the economy is getting back on its feet.

He added that exports were likely to be the key driver of the economy going forward and expressed confidence in the government's ability to bring down high debt levels.

"There's a great sense of achievement at having completed the task I set out to do almost three years ago," Noonan said in an interview late Thursday. "We had a major economic and financial crisis that needed to be addressed. We addressed it by a series of progressive measures which we implemented on a timeframe."

Ireland has relied on 85 billion euros ($114 billion) in international bailout loans and assistance from other euro zone countries, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank for the past three years.

But this Sunday, the small euro zone state exits the aid program.



Dublin has put in place stiff austerity measures and overhauled the banking system. There are still areas of concern such as high government debt levels and a weak banking sector. A recently completed balance sheet assessment of Ireland's three bailed-out banks concluded that all three have not made adequate provisions for bad loans.



Data from Eurostat released in October showed that Ireland had a debt-to-GDP ratio last year of 117.4 percent, the fourth highest in the euro zone after Greece, Italy and Portugal.

Debt woes

"Our debt is going to peak at 124 percent of GDP this year but then it will go down," Noonan said. "We are at the highest point but it's entirely sustainable. We are working on a series of initiatives to bring the debt back down."

He said that there was no evidence that state banks required extra capital following a recent asset quality review.

"But we will be very cautious because we know bank credit is what we need to fuel a growing economy. Our policies are careful in approaching banking issues," Noonan added.

Asked to address criticism that foreign companies were using Ireland as a tax base, Noonan said: "That simply isn't true. Google is here, they have 3,500 people working here in Dublin."



Noonan said he believed the next news on Ireland from Moody's was likely to be positive. Ireland is currently ranked as non-investment grade by Moody's ratings agency.

"In conversations with Moody's, our National Treasury Management Agency, which manages the debt, is of the view that Moody's adverse view is to do with having an adverse view on euro zone rather than particularly an adverse view of Ireland," he said.

"But I've no doubt at all that the next time we hear Moody's talking about Ireland it will be good news rather than bad news."

CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101270115 (Some of interview with Micheal Noonan in link)

Ah Moody's - you know when someone you know arrives late to a party? ;)

Lovely Christmas Tree in Leinster House for the media tomorrow



The market is very confident. Spread between Irish and German 10 year bonds hit 161 basis points yesterday.
 
#8 · (Edited)
Bloomberg reveals for the first time today that Mark Carney - current head of the Bank of England - may have been instrumental in getting the Anglo Irish Bank promissory notes converted to long term bonds against the seemingly immovable ECB.

A new roadblock emerged, in the shape of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, who opposed the deal at a time when Draghi wanted to avoid a confrontation.

Here again, Ireland drew on its diaspora, looking to Mark Carney, who has held an Irish passport since 1988.

Then at the Bank of Canada, Carney spoke with Weidmann, stating the Irish case, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the talks weren’t public. Ireland and Canada are grouped together at the IMF. A spokesman for Carney declined to comment on his part.

Though Weidmann later publicly spoke against the deal, he didn’t block it. On Feb. 7, Kenny declared Anglo dead.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ar-diplomacy-as-german-love-ends-bailout.html
 
#12 ·
From MerrionStreet.ie:
Published on Sunday 15th December 2013

Taoiseach’s National Address – full text


Good evening.

Three years ago, Ireland entered a bailout programme.

This affected every household in our country.

In March 2011, you gave Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore and me a mandate to fix the public finances, and to get Ireland working again.

Two years ago, this month, I said that retrieving our economic sovereignty was an important step in the plan to deliver on that mandate.

Since then – the people of Ireland and your government– have worked hard to deliver that plan.

This has required very difficult decisions at home and tough negotiations abroad.

In 2011, the immediate and urgent priority had to be to stabilise the economy by tackling the enormous budget deficit and the banking chaos that we inherited.

We had to act decisively to show investors, and markets and our international partners that we were serious about fixing our economic problems.

This was tough – wages and services were cut, and new charges introduced.

Many families have also had to face the devastating consequences of unemployment and emigration.

I know that many people are struggling to make ends meet. I also know that, for many of you, the recent improvements in the economic situation are not yet been felt in your daily lives.

But it is now clear that your sacrifices are making a real difference.

Ireland is now moving in the right direction.

Our economy is starting to recover.

While we still have far too many people out of work, jobs are being created.

While borrowing is still too high, our public finances are moving towards a sustainable position.

Internationally, our good name and our credibility have been restored.

Thanks to these efforts, Ireland will exit the EU-IMF bailout tonight.

Tomorrow morning, Ireland will again stand as a full member of the Euro Zone – with the same rules, obligations, supports and opportunities as all other member states.

From tomorrow, we will access the Financial Markets in the same way as other countries.

This is an important step but it is not an end in itself.Our lives won’t change overnight.

But it does send out a powerful signal internationally, that Ireland is fighting back, that the spirit of our people is as strong as ever.

Your patience and resilience have restored our national pride and empowered us to face the challenges that remain.

The clear and decisive path that has been followed for the past three years puts us in a position where we can now be optimistic for our country’s future.

But the progress that we have made must not be put at risk.

Now is not the time to change our course or direction.

While the bailout is over, we must approach the future with that same clarity and decisiveness.

This week, the Government will publish a new medium term economic plan that lays out the road ahead for our country.

This plan will set out the steps that we intend to take to grow our economy between now and 2020.

It will be a plan based on enterprise, not on speculation.

A plan to ensure that never again will Ireland’s stability be threatened by speculation and greed.

We are never going back to that culture.

The plan will have two central pillars.

First, we must continue to pursue prudent budgetary policies. That’s what convinces those who create jobs that Ireland is a place in which they can invest with confidence.

Everyone knows that you can’t keep spending more than you are earning.

As of today, we have already completed over 90% of the necessary cuts and tax increases.

As a result, we can now begin to reduce the national debt burden.

So, by 2020, with continued effective management of the public finances, we can eliminate government borrowing and cut public debt by a quarter, relative to the size of the economy.

The second pillar is to get more of our people back to work.

The creation of jobs will be at the heart of the plan.Three years ago, 1,600 jobs were being lost in this country every week. Now – every week – over 1,000 extra new jobs are being created.

That’s progress, but we must build on it.

The plan will focus on developing the skills of our workforce, particularly our young people.

We will remove the barriers to new jobs in key sectors, and reform the welfare system to provide supports and incentives for unemployed people to take up new jobs.

It will show how we will require the banking system to become a contributor to the economy, rather than a huge drain on it. The banks must do more to deal with mortgage distress and to provide access to credit for small business.

By increasing total employment to over 2 million people by 2020, we can replace all of the jobs that were lost during the crisis with new jobs, offering many of those who have left Ireland the choice to return home.

Creating more jobs will also improve our public finances and help to bring the era of tough budgets to an end.

Throughout our history, the Irish people have always shown that nothing is impossible for us to achieve, when we really apply ourselves to a challenge or cause.

Believe me, government will work with you to put in place the foundations for a secure and prosperous futurefor you and the next generation.

I thank you for the part that you have played in Ireland’s recovery to date.

My commitment to you and to your families is that for the remainder of its term, this government will work, might and mane, to finish the job that you entrusted to us.

Thank you… go raibh míle maith agaibh.

ENDS
 
#14 ·
Yeah, it'll be great to see what's in that as it's the area which needs full attention now that the most of austerity is behind us and the public finances are close to stabilisation. 2 million at work by 2020 is fairly conservative considering the 2.15 million peak of people employed in 2007. 2.5 million is a more ambitious target and more in keeping with a commitment to put Ireland back on the right track.

I was also intrigued by the use of "you" and "your" instead of "we" and "our" usually favoured by political speechwriters. The latter terms are favoured as they create a sense of inclusion and commonality between the speaker and audience. You and your however subliminally reinforce distance and difference which can impair the effectiveness of a speech connecting with the audience. Perhaps they decided to go with you and your to underline the theme that it was us, the Irish people, who got ourselves out of the programme rather than the government.
 
#15 · (Edited)
Wait till the auction politics start with the Labour party. They have to be careful about managing peoples expectations and have to get the message across that austerity is not over yet. I have my doubts whether they are capable of doing that in the run up to an election.




"Ireland is like the person left at the bar to pick up the tab" - Declan Ganley.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101271471
 
#16 ·
I thought Kennys presentation was fairly good. Understated and to the point and a lot better then his last State of the Nation which was wooden in the extreme.

Ross, Martin and Adams were par for the Course. RTE, were far too accommodating in allowing Adams time to travel back from SA to make his address. Martins speech was awfully hollow, in light of everything that's happened. Predictably, most of the internet commentators are eulogising Shane Ross's speech, however, he was nakedly political and was suggesting a government made up of independents. Imagine Ross, Healy Rae, Ming Flanagan, Wallace, Claire Daly trying to sit around a Cabinet Table to agree on anything....the only thing they agree on now is that everything the government does they are against...shudder!!!

C
 
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