Future City - What do you see in store for Toronto?

[Filip]

Let's see if in 10,20,30 years somebody's predictions come true, assuming the board is still around and we're still alive.

Talk about neighbourhoods, transportation, infrastructure, government, built form, development... Based on today's unprecedent civic growth, will this pan out successfully and create in a decade or two one of the world's most influential cities or is Toronto going to one day suffer the same fate as its neighbouring rust belt cities?

Discuss

[Epi]

In 10 years
========
Waterfront:
-East Bayfront 35% developed, sales starting on the next 25%
-Queen's Quay fully redone, new piers put in right at the 10 year mark
-Condoland fully built up from Yonge to the CNE and south of the railway along the water

King East:
-Donlands 75% developed (after the Pan Am games they slowed down significantly)
-Regent Park 50% redone
-Creeping gentrification makes Moss Park area the new Ossington

King West:
-Hold on many new projects after current ones finished as backlash from NIMBYs, the continuing slaughterhouse and high prices force people to buy elsewhere

Yonge/Bloor:
-1 Bloor East opens to great fanfare
-Yorkville area streets fully redone by local BIA after seeing success of Bloor renovations
-Plans put in place to redo the Hudson's Bay Company concrete monolith across from 1 Bloor as retailers move east

North York:
-First 40-story building proposed at Yonge/Finch across from the Xerox building. This mixed use commercial/residential property will be the tallest in North York

Scarborough CC:
Work generally stops due to recession in this area for 10 years.

General:
-Transit city completed aside from Eglinton which runs into endless delays
-City of Toronto still looking for a home
-Leafs continue to suck as hockey interest starts to wane in the city
-Crime increasing in the outer suburbs as the gap between rich and poor gets larger and larger in the city
-Downsview Park remains a wasteland
-With Canada's laxer rules and multiple new 5-star hotels, Toronto becomes an even larger center for international conferences. Plans are underway for a new Toronto Convention Centre.
-GTA Population: 6.5 million

20 Years
=======
Waterfront:
-East Bayfront built out
-Portlands finally cleared after many years of soil rehabilitation, contracts start to get written up for building
-After 20 years of neglect, Gardiner starts dropping concrete chunks on drivers. Political will finally starts to fully demolishing the highway as the entire area is built out and local residents start demanding it.

King East:
-Fully gentrified from Yonge to Parliament, the Donlands start becoming less so. Shoddy work from Pan-Am construction for subsidized housing make area not desirable.
-As the neighbourhood pushes north, everything south of Dundas is now considered 'wealthy' with the exception of pockets of Regent Park

King West:
-Construction begins anew as area east of Spadina fully built out with massive 40-story towers
-Slaughterhouse finally moves out, property values skyrocket

West Queen West becomes the current Queen West, and the current Queen West becomes a 2nd Yorkville.

Yonge/Bloor:
-Shopping extends from Jarvis to Bedford as old buildings renovated.
-Cumberland Terrace finally redeveloped into 4-tower complex complete with high-end mall
-Condos extend south to Wellsley as 50-100 new towers pop up in this area in 20 years
-Yorkville is declared 'historical district' as old buildings are saved in the face of massive redevelopment

North York:
-With Korean immigration slowing down, area starts to become a 'Little Arabia' with many middle eastern immigrants moving to Canada from freer access and the plights of Global Warming
-The North York Yonge corridor expands up to Steeles and beyond as Subway to Richmond Hill completed

Scarbrough CC:
-With the new Sheppard LRT fully integrated into the community, there are plans to extend the Sheppard Subway east to SCC. With this in mind, developers rush in after a 10-15 year lull and SCC sees a flurry of activity

York Region:
-York Region reaches a population of 1.5 million, as Vaughan and Mississauga become what North York and Scarborough were a generation earlier. New city centres are built and start resembling NYCC today

Kennedy/Steeles area goes through a massive redevelopment and becomes 'little china' complete with clusters of 10-20 idential 30 story buildings in the works.

Mississauga:
Still a suburban wasteland

General:
-Leafs still suck
-Raptors get to NBA finals only to lose it all in game 6 at home
-New plans drawn up for DRL and subway lines under Sheppard. Also planned GO train expansion to create a new cross-town service, and full all-day service to as far as London and Kingston
-Eglinton TC finally completed

-York University finally gets a medical school and Ryerson plans on getting a Law and Medical school as well

-City of Toronto museum finally put inside Maple Leaf Gardens. Unfortunately as the process begins, we find that MLG needs $100 million in repairs (today's money) and the museum is delayed once again
-New green initiatives by the federal government spur changes in Downsview site. Former airport now fully subway connected becomes a 'green hub' where new technologies are developed in 'green valley north'.
-As industry goes further into decline, industrial areas along Dufferin north of 401 are completely redeveloped into mixed use communities

-Large swaths of the city become no-go zones as crime skyrockets. While nicer areas are seeing good development, the poorer areas of the city fall slowly into disuse and disrepair. Old suburban neighbourhoods which used to have one family per house, are now increasing rooming houses with >10 people/house. A looming recession hurts the average worker and the loss of general manufacturing jobs which never come back to southern Ontario creates what seems to be a permanent underclass.

Much is said about Toronto heading the way of NYC in the 70s, and not much is done. Critics complain that the government is ineffectual as the top income tax rate drops to 30%. Losing much of it's vibe Toronto's growth rate slows down dramatically.

-GTA Population 7.0 million

[Epi]

30 years:
=======
GTA population: 8 million

After a large decline in the city's poorer suburban areas, the city finds the political will to initiate policies to change this. After the great recession of 2035, Canada decides to change it's policies. With global warming devastating large parts of the world, Canada becomes a fertile new agricultural zone as the country's population swells to 50 million.

Transit lines are finally fully extended to the poorest areas, and taxes raised from a historic low 30% combined income tax back to 40% as the government pledges to fix many social problems and reverse a decade of decline.

Toronto's waterfront is now fully built-out with the last sections of the Portlands coming into fruition. With many social problems being fixed, and the failure of 2028 far behind it, Toronto bids and wins the 2040 Olympics.

A gleaming new Athletes village and stadium replace the entire of the old dilapidated Exhibition grounds and what was once known as Ontario Place.

Toronto becomes the home of several new major cultural landmarks. From the Toronto museum of Modern Art, to the finally completed City of Toronto Museum, to the Canadian Museum of Immigration, to the Toronto Philharmonic, to 1 new university Toronto is once again a place to be.

The Leafs still suck but no one cares anymore.

[kettal]

Originally Posted by Epi

With global warming devastating large parts of the world, Canada becomes a fertile new agricultural zone as the country's population swells to 50 million.

I guess this makes me an asshole, but I am looking forward to sitting under the palm trees on a warm December afternoon at Cherry Beach.

[Tuscani01]

My future Toronto is one without Filip.

[Filip]

I hope you die..

[Tuscani01]

Originally Posted by Filip

I hope you die..

At least i'll be buried in Toronto

[Filip]

Shhh you're distracting me from my fantasizing, how about you continue your childlike behaviour on msn?

[Taller, Better]

Originally Posted by kettal

I guess this makes me an asshole, but I am looking forward to sitting under the palm trees on a warm December afternoon at Cherry Beach.

[Filip]

Here's mine:

10 years
+++++++++++

Waterfront: West Don Lands nearly fully built out due to the added boost received during the Pan Am games, however due to typical TTC shortsightedness many of the beautiful plazas built for the games are being torn up digging the new Cherry subway station
East Bayfronts are proceeding on schedule, 75% built out, the remaining part fronting the Gardiner is having problems because the developer, well doesn't like that crumbling relic lowering his market value.
Queen's Quay is fully renovated, and the brand new waterfront streetcar lines are zipping past the lake.
Humber Bay Shores is Miami North, numerous 50 storey condos now line the lake creating the most gated-feeling neighbourhood in the city. Riots break out as former government subsidized housing in the area is torn down for luxury condo developments.

Financial Core: Toronto having become the new seat of a global Financial Regulator welcomes the constant flow of conferences, world bank executives and national bank directors. A new 20 storey impeccably designed tower houses the new international body while driving up the demand for luxury hotels. The downtown core sees towers popping up like weeds providing 5 star accommodation for the new flow of global money. Canadian banks having weathered yet another global meltdown now all belong to the global top 10 with RBC being #2. Trust in the Canadian banking industry guarantees new towers to house the numerous new departments these global giants now have. As always, new condos keep going up, and up, nobody seems to get enough.

Bloor-Yorkville: Needless to say, the demand for luxury goods is quite high with the amount of money being funneled through the city. Retail development ends up running down Bloor for 3 more blocks than what we have today. Streets in the village of Yorkville are currently ripped up for a makeover which will create pedestrian mews out of Hazelton and parts of Yorkville Avenue. Condos continue creeping up some of the less fortunate parts of the neighbourhood driving up prices and angering nearby UofT students who have nowhere cheap to eat anymore. 1 Bloor has been finally built and people marvel at its effect on the Toronto skyline, definitely a symbol of the last bust.

Transit: Of course the TTC management still have their heads stuck in one collective ass of mediocrity.. The DRL is still being argued over, even after digging has begun, while streetcars are dotting mediocre neighbourhoods. Pearson being fed by Toronto's new role in the financial marketplace is finishing up its current crop of expansion, another white elephant is on the horizon. Metrolinx has banned the TTC from building light rail on Eglinton, therefore nothing is happening on that stretch... Filip, having moved back from Madrid shakes his head at the patheticness of the TTC and threatens to move back to Madrid.. but doesn't.

Olympics: Guess what? In 2018 we bid for the 2024 Olympics and somehow we ended up beating another sap case: Cape Town!!! Guess the Olympics aren't a charity anymore... Toronto is now actively trying to figure out where to put the facilities, considering a lot of the Portlands have been parceled off to developers.

Suburbs: As the fortunes of downtown Toronto continue, Toronto becomes a reverse American Urban Doughnut. The suburbs are becoming poorer and poorer while the centre continues to climb in wealth. Pockets of crime now become entire belts; municipal government doesn't care and continues to work on the fortunes of the downtown area.

GTA population at 6.8 million and rising, rapidly.

[monkeyronin]

What would seem to me to be a fairly realistic assessment of Toronto 10-20 years down the line:

-Toronto by then will be like Berlin today, in its importance as a global centre of contemporary art & culture, youth culture, gay culture, etc. Expect even more artists/art galleries, musicians/venues, public art, graffiti, cutting-edge street fashions, fashion studios, design firms, street festivals, all that good stuff.

-Drinking & drug laws in Toronto/Ontario/Canada will become increasingly liberal, which will certainly compliment the above and generally make the city an even more fun place to live and visit (particularly for young people again).

-Given the stability of our financial industry through this recession, the relative strength coming out of it will lead to increased investment and more jobs and the like...and more office towers!

-Transit City & YUS extensions will be mostly completed, and hopefully the DRL might even begin construction. The existing fleet of trains and streetcars will largely be replaced by the stuff we're getting in a few years. GO will see multiple lines converted to electric power allowing for faster & more frequent service, and when coupled with rapid suburban population growth & intensification of their centres, will result in a huge increase in ridership. Also, we'll finally get proper, Octopus Card-style farecards!

-We'll start seeing more and more plans for high-density, mixed-use redevelopments on increasingly disused industrial areas.

-The city will allow more laneway housing, and for detached houses even in outer-areas to be replaced with small apartment buildings. And on this note, more and more new development will lack parking areas.

-I can easily see us getting the 2020 or 2024 Olympics, leading to waterfront redevelopment being completed ahead of schedule to accommodate facilities.

-Overall, general trends at present will continue - the GTA will continue to grow by ~100,000 people every year, parking lots and underused lots will continue to see high-density redevelopment, the inner-city will continue to become more expensive and wealthy, suburban neighbourhoods with poor transit access will continue to decline, the city will keep getting more diverse, more interesting, larger, better, and so on.

[monkeyronin]

Originally Posted by Epi

30 years:
=======
GTA population: 8 million

With global warming devastating large parts of the world, Canada becomes a fertile new agricultural zone as the country's population swells to 50 million.

So Canada will rapidly increase to 50 million while growth slows in Toronto with an increase of only 2 million over 30 years?

Originally Posted by Filip

Humber Bay Shores is Miami North, numerous 50 storey condos now line the lake creating the most gated-feeling neighbourhood in the city. Riots break out as former government subsidized housing in the area is torn down for luxury condo developments.

Large amounts of public housing (in an increasingly expensive city) simply being removed would be incredibly unlikely. Specific buildings in highly-desirable areas might be replaced by luxury condos, but those would probably be forced to include some affordable component in their plans, and the TCHC would otherwise construct new buildings elsewhere to house those displaced residents (using revenue from the sale of that land).

[TRZ]

Great idea for a thread, Filip. I'm not sure about how the 10-20 year horizon will unfold given the volatility of economic forces that may take a while to stabilize and, once that does happen, to regroup.

In the 20-30 year horizon though...

Scarborough
Scarborough sees development around the City Centre area intensify and radiate with new electric GO service via the CP line coming right in to the STC area, its density spreading to and west of Brimley north of Ellesemere, and along Progress east of Bellamy towards Centennial College. The Scarborough LRT now stops at Brimley with a new station, and extends towards Progress with a new stop as part of the extension at Bellamy 200m south of Progress, but with pedestrian connections fanning out northwest, north, and northeast from the station to the Progress Corridor. Kennedy Station finally intensifies as part of the station renovations kickstarting projects and supported in part by the Eglinton LRT. Kingston Road becomes the Queen Street of Scarborough with a streetcar extension from Bingham Loop redefining the corridor drastically and making it, of all things, trendy, a dramatic transformation. Malvern has become vibrant and a designated urban growth centre that is on the High-Speed Rail network, connected to the Finch East LRT, Scarborough LRT, Kingston Road Streetcar, and GO Rail. UTSC thrives as both a centre for innovation and academia as well as a centre for recreation and athletics, its campus expanding all the way to the 401 and becoming a mosaic village all by itself with a population in the tens of thousands.

Etobicoke
After proving to be a flop, the Kipling regional terminal undergoes a dramatic rethink, and the previous plans of Islington as the heart of Etobicoke take form. The GO Station is relocated to Islington, while the TTC Kipling Station is moved to Bloor and has been extended to Bloor/Renforth, and the existing Kipling facility transformed into a major complex serving all uses; industrial, commercial, and residential. Underground is the Etobicoke Centre Division for TTC bus operations, shared with Mississauga, while on the first floor is a new west-end subway yard, one of two new yards created for the BD as the DRL occupied the Greenwood facility. The subway yard is semi-hidden from the surrounding community by commercial uses around the perimeter of the facility, while still being celebrated through public art integrated into the landscaping and architecture. One level above the subway yard is an LRV carhouse serving the Dundas and Burnhamthorpe corridors for Mississauga, shared with the TTC for its Dundas streetcar extension and a now-under-construction Islington LRT. Above that, a residential high-rise reaches for the sky while housing, among other people, the staff for TTC and Mississauga to deploy from the carhouse/garage facilities below. Islington Village in the Dundas/Islington area is alive and has spread west from the influences of a reconfigured Six Points, making Dundas Etobicoke's St.Clair. Lakeshore is not as successful but is healthy. In the airport district, Dixon Road is almost unrecognizable as the Eglinton and Finch LRTs both roll down the hotel and convention centre strip that has seen land use maximized to the greatest extent flight paths will allow. A Dixon-Lawrence LRT is funded and in detailed design. Emery's influence has grown greatly, although losing some of its industrial power to commercial power.

North York
From York University to Seneca College, Finch has become the northern twin of King Street. Abercombie ditches Fitch for Finch, it has become THE street after Yonge.

Even though it was only extended to Steeles, the TTC did end up building a new yard on the Yonge Line after all, by expropriating the Don Valley Golf Course lands, which will also host the carhouse for the now-under-construction Wilson-York Mills LRT above the subway level, and above that a new mid-rise community.

Parc Downsview Park has made some progress but people are still pissed off about it. They blame Bombardier. However, a transit tunnel was put in under the runways to connect Dufferin bus services via Downsview Station.

York U never really did adjust their plans properly to make their subway investment pay off. However, the Allen was torn up from Lawrence southward and the lands redeveloped around the Eglinton West, Glencairn, and Lawrence West subway stations, including additional exits added to the stations in conjunction with new developments.

Old City of Toronto
The DRL is in place from East York Town Centre in Thorncliffe Park to the Entertainment District near King/Spadina. Extensions to Flemingdon and Parkdale are planned, with approved EAs, but not funded. The inner city has expanded the legacy network which has brought changes to Gerrard St., Dundas St between Runnymede and Edna (Dundas West Station Loop), and Church St (as a pedestrian mall), with plans in place for Bay St to see streetcar service restored, and the Dufferin LRT under construction from Queen to Eglinton. As alleviators for Union Station, GO now has many lines stopping at a streamlined station in Parkdale and at a sprawling (due to the Don Yard) station in the Distillery (but with an extremely porous design that greatly improves connectivity between the West Don and the Waterfront areas). Liberty Village is a bigger success than expected, and the Portlands came to fruition faster than expected. Cherry is crazy busy, yet light in car traffic. The Gardiner has been torn down as far west as Simcoe St. At the CNE, they're still fighting over that hotel. On Bloor St, cyclists are still complaining.

[vid]

Originally Posted by Tuscani01

My future Toronto is one without Filip.

Originally Posted by Filip

I hope you die..

I can't remember. What happened between you two that has sparked such animosity again?



To surprise many of you and contradict what I just told a local NIMBY: Maybe future Toronto will be one with me!

[TRZ]

Originally Posted by vid

To surprise many of you and contradict what I just told a local NIMBY: Maybe future Toronto will be one with me!

You're ditching T-Bay for T-Dot?

[Filip]

Originally Posted by vid

I can't remember. What happened between you two that has sparked such animosity again?



To surprise many of you and contradict what I just told a local NIMBY: Maybe future Toronto will be one with me!

It's a joke, vid

[Epi]

Originally Posted by monkeyronin

So Canada will rapidly increase to 50 million while growth slows in Toronto with an increase of only 2 million over 30 years?

2.5 million actually, for some reason I thought we were at 5.5 million right now but that's 2006... d'oh! So add 500,000 to all my numbers hehe

I think Toronto can only grow so fast... with free land drying up, it's harder to grow by just intensification because it takes longer/costs more.

Also I think if people start moving to Canada en masse because of global warming, there's going to be a LOT of really great places to move to that isn't necessarily Toronto... it's a big country!

(For instance, NYC/Chicago hasn't grown that much in the last 20 years or so but far flung outlying places have... we in Canada don't count those as part of the CMA

[Taller, Better]

Originally Posted by vid

To surprise many of you and contradict what I just told a local NIMBY: Maybe future Toronto will be one with me!

Wouldn't surprise me one bit, in fact I'd be shocked if it didn't eventually happen!

[InTheBeach]

Predictions:

- Taller, Better will hit 1,000,000 posts.

- The Leslie Street Spit will form a land bridge to St. Catherines.

- Filip will star in a television series called "The King of Yorkville".

- All the sand will be gone from the beaches.

- Poverty will be rampant throughout the GTA.

- Wealth will be rampant throughout the GTA.

- There will be more wires.

[TRZ]

Originally Posted by InTheBeach

Predictions:

- The Leslie Street Spit will form a land bridge to St. Catherines.

No way. NIMBYs will demand a tunnel.