Property Trends 2010

[bigbird72]

New Year New Start....New Hope.....

[love laguna]

Originally Posted by bigbird72

New Year New Start....New Hope.....

Yes, wish all well, richer, happier and healthier.

[shctaw]

Slew of events to keep Singapore busy in 2010

From the opening of the two integrated resorts to a new report due on the Singapore economy, 2010 looks set to be a busy year.

The economy dominated headlines in 2009 and will continue to do so in the new year. The Economic Strategies Committee Report on how best to take the country forward is expected by end-January.

The Jobs Credit scheme, which helped saved jobs during the recession, will wind down by mid-year. But the opening of the Marina Bay Sands integrated resort and Resorts World at Sentosa within the first quarter should boost economic numbers.

Another highly-anticipated event will be the world’s first inaugural Youth Olympic Games (YOG). This kicks off in Singapore this August and should add more buzz to the city.

On transport, Singaporeans can zip around a lot easier by mid-year when 11 new MRT stations for the Circle Line open. You might also see more red-plate cars on the road as changes making off-peak cars more attractive kicked in from 1 January.

The residential property market saw some heated activity in 2009. The market should cool with the resumption of the Confirmed List under the Government Land Sales programme in the first half of the year. Confirmed sites are put up for tender regardless of a developer’s prior expression of interest.

Real estate agents will also come under regulation.

On education, details on the review of schools teaching English and Chinese languages are expected, possibly by Budget time.

Health-wise, there will be more focus on measures that emphasise community care.

Politically, changes such as the revision of GRC sizes and more single wards will be tabled in Parliament.

[jadeb]

Thanks bro Shctaw ... 2009 has been a great year for my personal growth, and I owe a debt of gratitude to insightful contributors in this forum (including you !).

I would only add that Singapore has begun on an irreversible socio-economic shift that will create both opportunities & pain - depending on how each stakeholder in Singapore condition their minds to seek out their own competitive edge & place in the new playing field.

May 2010 bring you all success & happiness !!!

[LittlePig]

Happy New Year!!

[cnud]

Huat Ah!!!!

[shctaw]

The benefit is mutual.

2010 will be different. It may be more volatile than 2007-2009.

Pain can result in Gain. I learn more when I suffer the most.

2004-2009 have work great for me;(and also most of the buddy here) and I fear I have lost guard to any risk.

I will take on 2010 one day at a time. I believe we should all try to keep some profit and keep some cash for better investment.

Bottom line; I believe 2010 onward is the year to sell. (maybe 2011) (I am talking about property; hence not applicable to BB. )

If you own 1; just stay with it and re-finance your loan. (3 year fixed is the best deal in decades)

If you have 2; sell at least one.

If you have 3; sell 1; get a mistress to stay in 1 and keep your family in the smallest unit.

If you have more than 5; go for a holiday in a poor nation and look back on your own greed. (that apply to myself too.)

Originally Posted by jadeb

Thanks bro Shctaw ... 2009 has been a great year for my personal growth, and I owe a debt of gratitude to insightful contributors in this forum (including you !).

I would only add that Singapore has begun on an irreversible socio-economic shift that will create both opportunities & pain - depending on how each stakeholder in Singapore condition their minds to seek out their own competitive edge & place in the new playing field.

May 2010 bring you all success & happiness !!!

[shctaw]

http://www.marinabaysands.com/en/index.html

Marina Bay Sands casino website is ready. Go on and enjoy the website.

Shops in Sands.

Anne Fontaine ,Bally
Blancpain ,Bottega Veneta
Breguet ,Bulgari
Burberry ,Cartier
CHANEL ,Fendi
Ferragamo ,Franck Muller
Gucci ,Henry Cotton's
Hermès, Hublot
Hugo Boss, Louis Vuitton, Maris, frolg
Max Mara, Miu Miu
Moiselle, Omega
Patek Philippe, Paul & Shark
Prada , Rabeanco
Stefano Ricci
Tiffany & Co., Wolford
Yves Saint Laurent,

[bigbird72]

Ya..will make hay while the sun shines....Hope to go from leveraged position to 60-70% invested by end 1Q 2010. Depending on specific stock peformances.

Dont want to carry too many goods in the boat if the coming waves are big.

[realist]

Originally Posted by shctaw

The benefit is mutual.

2010 will be different. It may be more volatile than 2007-2009.

Pain can result in Gain. I learn more when I suffer the most.

2004-2009 have work great for me;(and also most of the buddy here) and I fear I have lost guard to any risk.

I will take on 2010 one day at a time. I believe we should all try to keep some profit and keep some cash for better investment.

That's what the experts are saying that movin on, it storms are even more volatile.

For stocks, we have lost a decade. DJ ended where it started. STI ended 10% more.

For properties, who knows but it's been time proven that for most of us we are always too late to buy or too late to sell.

Greed and fear rules;-)

[bigbird72]

even STI component stocks changed over the decade. So headline news dont tell the whole story.

[august5]

Happy New Year to all.

[Minority]

Business Times - 02 Jan 2010


China property bubble headed for crash?

It's feared the bubble may burst later in 2010, devastating homeowners, banks, developers, stock markets and local govts

(Beijing)

LI NAN has real estate fever. A 27-year-old steel trader at China Minmetals, a state- owned commodities company, Mr Li lives with his parents in a cramped 700-sq-ft apartment in west Beijing.

Mr Li originally planned to buy his own place when he got married, but after watching Beijing real estate prices soar, he has been spending all his free time searching for an apartment. If he finds the right place - preferably a two-bedroom in the historic Dongcheng quarter, near the city centre - he hopes to buy immediately.

Act now, he figures, or live with Mom and Dad forever. In the last 12 months such apartments have doubled or tripled in price, to about US$400 per square foot (psf). 'This year they'll be even higher,' says Mr Li in the Jan 11 issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek.

Millions of Chinese are pursuing property with a zeal once typical of house-happy Americans. Some Chinese are plunking down wads of cash for homes. Others are taking out mortgages at record levels. Developers are snapping up land for luxury high-rises and villas, and the banks are eagerly funding them. Some local officials are even building towns from scratch in the desert, certain that demand won't flag. And if families can swing it, they buy two apartments: One to live in, one to flip when prices jump further.

And jump they have. In Shanghai, prices for high-end real estate were up 54 per cent through September, to US$500 psf. In November alone, housing prices in 70 major cities rose 5.7 per cent, while housing starts nationwide rose a staggering 194 per cent. The real estate rush is fuelling fears of a bubble that could burst later in 2010, devastating homeowners, banks, developers, stock markets, and local governments.

Speculators' role

'Once the bubble pops, our economic growth will stop,' warns Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Finance Research Centre.

On Dec 27, Premier Wen Jiabao told news agency Xinhua that 'property prices have risen too quickly'. He pledged a crackdown on speculators.

Although parallels with other bubble markets, the China bubble is not quite so easy to understand. In some places, demand for upper middle-class housing is so hot it can't be satisfied. In others, speculators keep driving up prices for land, luxury apartments, and villas even though local rents are actually dropping because tenants are scarce. What's clear is that the bubble is inflating at the rich end, while little low-cost housing gets built for middle and low-income Chinese.

In Beijing's Chaoyang district, which represents a third of all residential property deals in the capital, homes now sell for an average of almost US$300 psf. That means a typical 1,000-square-foot apartment costs about 80 times the average annual income of the city's residents.

Koyo Ozeki, an analyst at US investment manager Pimco, estimates that only 10 per cent of residential sales in China are for the mass market. Developers find the margins in high-end housing much fatter than returns from building ordinary homes.

How did this bubble get going? Low interest rates, official encouragement of bank lending, and then Beijing's half-trillion-dollar stimulus plan all made funds readily available. City and provincial governments have been gladly cooperating with developers: Economists estimate that half of all local government revenue comes from selling state-owned land.

Chinese consumers, fearing inflation will return and outstrip the tiny interest they earn on their savings, have pursued property ever more aggressively. Companies in the chemical, steel, textile, and shoe industries have started up property divisions too: The chance of a quick return is much higher than in their primary business. Newly wealthy towns are playing the game with a vengeance. Ordos is a city of 1.3 million in China's Inner Mongolia region. It has gotten rich from the discovery of a big coal seam nearby.

An emerging generation of tycoons, developers and local officials will go to any length to invent a modern Ordos. So 25km from the old town, a new civic centre is emerging from the desert that could easily pass for the capital of a midsize country. An enormous complex houses City Hall and the local Communist Party headquarters, each 11 storeys tall with sweeping circular driveways.

Thousands of villas and apartment towers stretch into the distance, all built by local developers in the hope that Ordos' recently prosperous will buy the places to be near the new centre of power.

Workers get bused daily to the new city hall, but the housing is still largely unoccupied. 'Why would anyone go there?' asks Zhao Hailin, a street artist in the old town. 'It's a city of empty buildings.'

The central government now faces two dangers. One is the anger of ordinary Chinese. In a recent survey by the People's Bank of China, two-thirds of respondents said real estate prices were too high.

Charged debate

A serial drama with the ironic name The Romance of Housing, featuring the travails of families unable to afford apartments, was one of the most popular shows on Beijing Television until broadcasting authorities pulled it off the airwaves in November. The official reason was that the show was too racy - one woman got an apartment by becoming the mistress of a corrupt local official - but online chatrooms speculated that the show was cut because it was upsetting to people unable to afford apartments.

The debate has become even more charged following injuries and deaths related to real estate. A woman from Chengdu committed suicide when her former husband's three-storey factory and attached living space were demolished to make way for a new road. A man in Beijing suffered severe burns in a similar protest over his home.

In early December five professors at Peking University wrote to the National People's Congress calling for changes to a land seizure and demolition law and accusing developers of usurping the government's role when taking land for construction. The law is leading to 'mass incidents' and 'extreme events', the professors warned.

The second danger is that Beijing will try, and fail, to let the air out of the bubble. Pulling off a soft landing means slowly calming the markets, stabilising prices, and building more affordable housing.

To discourage speculation, the State Council, China's Cabinet, is extending, from two years to five the period during which a tax is levied on the resale of apartments. Tighter rules on mortgages may follow. Beijing also plans to build apartments for 15 million poor families.

The government is reluctant to crack down too hard because construction, steel, cement, furniture, and other sectors are directly tied to growth in real estate. In November, for example, retail sales of furniture and construction materials jumped more than 40 per cent. At the December Central Economic Work Conference, an annual policy-setting confab, officials said real estate would continue to be a key driver of growth.

The worst scenario is that the central authorities let the party go on too long, then suddenly ramp up interest rates to stop the inflationary spiral. Without cheap credit, developers won't be able to refinance their loans, consumers will no longer take out mortgages, local banks' property portfolios will sour, and industrial companies that relied on real estate for a chunk of profits will suffer.

Analysts are divided over the probabilities of such a crash, but even real estate executives are getting nervous. Meanwhile, the big banks may be cutting back on their real estate risk by selling loans to smaller local banks and credit co-ops. For now, the party continues. -- Bloomberg

[Baby]

China is a very interesting country that many people still could not figure out her destiny.....

Since 2000 to 2008, I had read news about property too hot in China and will burst. Today it's residential had gone up more than 10 folds since then.....

[stingraytan]

and with many young couples still living with their parents, cant really call it a bubble but a real demand right? albiet at inflated prices of chasing, fear, and greed.

[shctaw]

I want bubble in my investment. That is where the most money is made.

Who want to invest in something which stay flat forever.

My wish for 2010 is

Bubble in our real estate market.

Bubble in Gold and Silver.

In fact a bubble in everything.

[zkai]

Originally Posted by shctaw

I want bubble in my investment. That is where the most money is made.

Who want to invest in something which stay flat forever.

My wish for 2010 is

Bubble in our real estate market.

Bubble in Gold and Silver.

In fact a bubble in everything.

you are a dangerous man! but i too secretly want that to happen

[tigersee]

Originally Posted by shctaw

I want bubble in my investment. That is where the most money is made.

Who want to invest in something which stay flat forever.

My wish for 2010 is

Bubble in our real estate market.

Bubble in Gold and Silver.

In fact a bubble in everything.

hi guru shctaw...

i hope bubble in these asset class oso.... but where should the money park after selling? after bubble bust...cash will be king?

Wish all of u a happy, healthy and prosperous year ahead...

[bigbird72]

Originally Posted by tigersee

hi guru shctaw...

i hope bubble in these asset class oso.... but where should the money park after selling? after bubble bust...cash will be king?

Wish all of u a happy, healthy and prosperous year ahead...

bubble burst always deflationary....pullpack in consumption and investments.

short term should be cash...longer term post bubble...dont know ????

post-bubble, cash may not be a bad thing, if interest rates are high...as long as there is no
hyperinflation.

[shctaw]

When you know what is bubble; you will know when to sell.

SG property now is no in bubble stage. I am very sure.

When in bubble or mania everyone will be talking about property or making money in property or pulling fund together to buy property etc. I do not see it yet,,, but 2010-2011 may be different...

Bubble is bad if you do not act.

If you sell in every mania (bubble) you will be rich beyond belief.