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January 19th, 2010, 10:50 PM  #1 
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Skyscraper heights, 1900  2100 AD
This is something I created today for my website. It took hours to draw. It shows the tallest completed buildings each year, from 1900 until the present day... plus some additional planned towers for 20112016.
Those marked in red are the ones which set a new record (e.g. Empire State Building, Sears, Petronas, Burj Dubai). Anyway, I'm trying to extrapolate a trend from this data, to calculate the most likely heights for 20172100. It's proving very difficult though. Does anybody know how I can do this? Is there some statistical method I could use to make it as accurate as possible? Should I include the record breakers in red, or do they bias the results by "inflating" the average height? Any help would be greatly appreciated...
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January 20th, 2010, 04:37 AM  #2 
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If you could get me the raw data (Each year with the corresponding height) I could probably use statistical software that I have come up with a prediction for the heights of the next few years. Of course, that just takes raw data given, determines a trend and produces predictions. It doesn't take into consideration any other factors (like the current economic climate) so it would probably not be very valid.

January 20th, 2010, 10:34 AM  #3 
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This is fantastic. It's really interesting to note the overall decline in building heights between the 1930'3 and the 1970's.
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January 20th, 2010, 01:44 PM  #4  
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Thanks! I would greatly appreciate that. I will even credit you on my site, if you want. Which software will you use? Anyway, here's the raw data: Year ... Height 1901 ... 167m 1902 ... 105m 1903 ... 96m 1904 ... 73m 1905 ... 111m 1906 ... 104m 1907 ... 104m 1908 ... 187m 1909 ... 213m 1910 ... 117m 1911 ... 129m 1912 ... 164m 1913 ... 241m 1914 ... 177m 1915 ... 164m 1916 ... 129m 1917 ... 132m 1918 ... 66m 1919 ... 161m 1920 ... 88m 1921 ... 127m 1922 ... 117m 1923 ... 131m 1924 ... 159m 1925 ... 141m 1926 ... 165m 1927 ... 145m 1928 ... 188m 1929 ... 198m 1930 ... 319m 1931 ... 381m 1932 ... 259m 1933 ... 259m 1934 ... 163m 1935 ... 156m 1936 ... 180m 1937 ... 163m 1938 ... 143m 1939 ... 111m 1940 ... 108m 1941 ... 61m 1942 ... 80m 1943 ... 131m 1944 ... 45m 1945 ... 122m 1946 ... 91m 1947 ... 149m 1948 ... 110m 1949 ... 135m 1950 ... 156m 1951 ... 159m 1952 ... 154m 1953 ... 182m 1954 ... 138m 1955 ... 183m 1956 ... 174m 1957 ... 147m 1958 ... 179m 1959 ... 168m 1960 ... 215m 1961 ... 248m 1962 ... 188m 1963 ... 246m 1964 ... 228m 1965 ... 198m 1966 ... 192m 1967 ... 223m 1968 ... 215m 1969 ... 344m 1970 ... 256m 1971 ... 229m 1972 ... 417m 1973 ... 346m 1974 ... 442m 1975 ... 296m 1976 ... 262m 1977 ... 279m 1978 ... 240m 1979 ... 225m 1980 ... 230m 1981 ... 234m 1982 ... 305m 1983 ... 302m 1984 ... 233m 1985 ... 284m 1986 ... 280m 1987 ... 269m 1988 ... 275m 1989 ... 310m 1990 ... 305m 1991 ... 271m 1992 ... 309m 1993 ... 296m 1994 ... 238m 1995 ... 280m 1996 ... 325m 1997 ... 348m 1998 ... 452m 1999 ... 283m 2000 ... 311m 2001 ... 310m 2002 ... 302m 2003 ... 407m 2004 ... 509m 2005 ... 323m 2006 ... 300m 2007 ... 319m 2008 ... 489m 2009 ... 357m 2010 ... 828m 2011 ... 595m 2012 ... 412m 2013 ... 541m 2014 ... 642m 2015 ... 640m 2016 ... 1001m
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FutureTimeline.net... Last edited by wjfox; May 14th, 2010 at 11:30 PM. 

January 20th, 2010, 08:09 PM  #5 
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Hey, thanks for the data.
The software I'm using is called Minitab. There is a free trial on their website if you are interested. Anyway, I came up with 2 possible equations that you can use to 'predict' the heights of future scrapers for each year. They go from least complex, to most complex (and thus, least 'accurate' to most 'accurate'). 1. Height (in meters) =  6015 + 3.20(Year). Just insert the year into the parenthesis and it should give you a prediction of the height of the tallest built in that year. For instance, for 2017, "Height" = 6015 + 3.2(2017). That means, the tallest in 2017 is predicted to be 439.4m. The 95% prediction interval is 220.83m to 640.34m, which roughly means that, if the equation is valid, then we can predict with 95% certainty that the tallest built in 2017 will be between 221 and 640m tall. Of course, as I said, this formula was the most basic and probably least valid of the two that I came up with. 2. Height= 197504  204.7 (year) + 0.05307 (year)**2, where "**2" means, 'squared' So for 2017, the prediction would be 528.19m 2018=537.63m 2019=547.17m 2020=556.83m Its probably the better predictor equation than the other, but its not even close to being a perfect model. The reason it seems so far off is that the model predicts height solely on the basis of the year in which is was built. It doesn't take into account anything like future economic developments, advancements in technology, etc. Additionally, this formula takes into account all of the data you have given me. It creates a model out of the increase in heights over the entire span of 19102016. The heights of the towers increased at a faster rate between 20102016 than they did as an historical average Also, according to the software, if the equation is valid, only ~60% of the change in height of skyscrapers can be attributed to the year. The other 40% is either just random variation or, most likely, other factors. But, something else to consider. If you look at the graph, you notice that the exponential increase in the height of buildings that occurred between 2006 and 2015 coincided with the global real estate boom. That being said, the idea that the tallest towers of 20182020 are shorter than in the previous years is not completely farfetched. Summary: Basically, the bottom line is that the data leaves out too many factors to come up with any type of valid conclusions. There is just too much uncertainty. But I tried. lol. BTW, you don't have to credit me. I would hate to get credit for something only to find out my statistical analysis was a bit off. LOL 
January 23rd, 2010, 06:55 AM  #6 
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I took the liberty of creating a lengthy list of all the tallest buildings constructed each year from 1900 to 2010.
1900North American Building, Philadelphia 1901Philadelphia City Hall* 1902Land Title and Trust Building Annex, Philadelphia 1903Hanover National Bank Building, New York/Club Quarters Downtown Hotel, New York 1904St. Regis Hotel, New York 1905One Times Square, New York 1906Minneapolis City Hall 1907United States Express Company Building, New York City 1908Singer Building, New York*/Bell Telephone Annex Building, Philadelphia 1909Metropolitan Life Insurance Company Tower, New York* 1910Liberty Tower, New York 1911Whitehall Building Annex, New York 1912Bankers Trust Company Building, New York 1913Woolworth Building, New York* 1914Municipal Building, New York 1915Equitable Building, New York 1916Adams Express Building, New York 1917Bush Tower, New York 191819th East 40th Street, New York 1919Travelers Tower, Hartford 1920Garment Center South Building, New York 1921Crown Bank Building, New York 1922Wrigley Building, New York 1923Magnolia Building, Dallas 1924Chicago Temple Building 1925Chicago Tribune Tower 1926Ritz Tower, New York 1927Sherry Netherland Hotel, New York 1928Penobscot Building, Detroit 1929Chanin Building, New York 1930Chrysler Building, New York* 1931Empire State Building, New York* 193270 Pine Street, New York 1933RCA Building, New York 1934Field Building, Chicago 1935International Building, New York 1936Thurgood Marshall United States Courhouse, New York 1937Cathedral of Learning, Pittsburgh 1938Hampshire House Hotel, New York 1939Hotel Vancouver 1940Terrazza Martini Tower, Genoa 1941The Capitol, Jersey City 1942Prudential Building, Newark 1943Mercantile National Bank Building, New York 1944Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration Building, San Francisco 1945The Tower at the Central Station of Rio de Janeiro 1946Torre Contigo, Mexico City 1947John Hancock Tower, Boston 1948Edificio CBI Espalnada, Sao Paulo 1949100 Park Avenue, New York 19501407 Broadway, New York 1951US Steel and Mellon Building, Pittsburgh 1952The Building on Kotelnicheskaya Enbankment, Moscow 1953Moscow State University 1954Republic Center Tower I, Dallas 1955One Prudential Plaza, Chicago 1956Latin American Tower, Mexico City 1957Torre de Madrid 19581271 Avenue of the Americas, New York 1959Southland Center, Dallas 1960270 Park Avenue, New York 1961One Chase manhattan Plaza, New York 1962Place Villemarie, Montreal 1963Pan Am Building, New York 1964Prudential Tower, Boston 1965Richard J. Daley Center, Chicago 1966Home Insurance Plaza, New York 1967TD Tower, Toronto 1968General Motors Building, New York 1969John Hancock Center, Chicago 1970United States Steel Tower, Pittsburgh 1971One Shell Plaza, Houston 1972One World Trade Center, New York*/Transamerica Pyramid, San Francisco 1973Two Torld Trade Center, New York/Standard Oil Building, Chicago 1974233 South Wacker Drive, Chicago* 1975First Canadian Place, Toronto 1976Water Tower Place, Chicago 1977Citigroup Center, New York 1978Sunshine 60, Chicago 1979Parque Central East Tower, Caracas 1980Enterprise Plaza, Houston 1981Three First National Plaza, Chicago 1982JPMorgan Chase Tower, Houston 1983Williams Tower, Houston 1984Wachovia Financial Center, Miami 1985Columbia Center, Seattle 1986Overseas Union Bank Center, Singapore 1987One Liberty Place, Philadelphia 1988Scotia Plaza, Toronto 1989Library Tower, Houston 1990Bank of China Tower, Hong Kong 1991Key Tower, Cleveland 1992Central Plaza, Hong Kong 1993Landmark Tower, Yokohama 1994Empire Tower, Kuala Lumpur 1995United Overseas Bank Plaza, Singapore 1996Shun Hing Square, Shenzhen 1997CITIC Plaza, Guangzhou 1998Petronas Towers, Kuala Lumpur* 1999Cheung Kong Centre, Hong Kong 2000Emirates Office Tower, Dubai 2001Menara Telekom, Kuala Lumpur 2002Kingdom Centre, Riyadh 2003Two International Finance Centre, Hong Kong 2004Taipei 101* 2005Q1 Tower, Gold Coast 2006Aspire Tower, Doha 2007Nina Tower, Hong Kong 2008Shanghai World Fnancial Center 2009Trump International Hotel & Tower Chicago 2010Burj Khalifa, Dubai*
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I honestly think all development projects must be sustainable and futureproof. You support the good projects... and oppose the bad. Last edited by Jim856796; January 24th, 2010 at 10:33 AM. 
February 1st, 2010, 12:40 PM  #7  
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Quote:
Thanks for this. However, I need to know the exact arrangement/grouping of calculations, since there are various different ways of inputting the numbers (if you see what I mean). Could you possibly repost this in a simpler way, e.g. one line for each calculation/grouping... or even better, just describe each step in sentence form. Thanks.
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February 2nd, 2010, 09:42 PM  #8  
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Quote:
197504 minus the product of 204.7 and the year (204.7 x year) plus the product of 0.5307 and the squared year (0.05307 x Year^2) The number you get should be the predicted height in meters 

February 3rd, 2010, 01:33 AM  #9 
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What about my list? It took me over an hour to make that list of the tallest skyscrapers' names to complement the raw data on wjfox's post.
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February 3rd, 2010, 12:15 PM  #10  
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I'll have the new graph ready this evening or tomorrow. Btw, is it possible you could do a trend/calculation that excludes the values from 2006 onwards? This might improve the accuracy. As you said earlier  something else to consider. If you look at the graph, you notice that the exponential increase in the height of buildings that occurred between 2006 and 2015 coincided with the global real estate boom. That being said, the idea that the tallest towers of 20182020 are shorter than in the previous years is not completely farfetched.
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February 3rd, 2010, 12:20 PM  #11 
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Well, that's great but... I don't see how it's relevant here. We are discussing a mathematical graph/trend.
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February 4th, 2010, 02:16 PM  #12 
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Did I forgert to put in the heights of the buildings? You put in the heights of the buildings, I hasd identified all of the buildings with those heights using skyscraperpage.com.
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February 5th, 2010, 01:28 AM  #13 
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February 11th, 2010, 10:47 PM  #14  
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Okay, here it is. Like I said though, it would be better if we excluded the data for 20062016. Also, I think it would make sense to exclude everything before 1940. If you look at 19001939, there isn't really a trend there. However, there is a much clearer trend between 19402005... The future projection might be more accurate if we focussed on just this range. Could you possibly resupply a formula/calculation based on what I've just described? I'd really appreciate it.
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FutureTimeline.net... Last edited by wjfox; February 11th, 2010 at 10:54 PM. 

February 11th, 2010, 11:08 PM  #15 
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The graph looks pretty nice.
When I get the chance I'll try to come up with an equation using 20062016 and 19402005. 
February 11th, 2010, 11:19 PM  #16 
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On second thoughts, could you do 19402009?
It might make sense to include a couple of the towers in the property boom. China for example is in the process of becoming industrialised, has a massive population, and is likely to see many additional towers on the scale of SWFC (2008). However, I think Burj Dubai and the 1km tower in Kuwait (and some of the other towers currently U/C in Dubai) are so ridiculous that they're going to really skew the data. In other words, please use only the following data  1940 ... 108m 1941 ... 61m 1942 ... 80m 1943 ... 131m 1944 ... 45m 1945 ... 122m 1946 ... 91m 1947 ... 149m 1948 ... 110m 1949 ... 135m 1950 ... 156m 1951 ... 159m 1952 ... 154m 1953 ... 182m 1954 ... 138m 1955 ... 183m 1956 ... 174m 1957 ... 147m 1958 ... 179m 1959 ... 168m 1960 ... 215m 1961 ... 248m 1962 ... 188m 1963 ... 246m 1964 ... 228m 1965 ... 198m 1966 ... 192m 1967 ... 223m 1968 ... 215m 1969 ... 344m 1970 ... 256m 1971 ... 229m 1972 ... 417m 1973 ... 346m 1974 ... 442m 1975 ... 296m 1976 ... 262m 1977 ... 279m 1978 ... 240m 1979 ... 225m 1980 ... 230m 1981 ... 234m 1982 ... 305m 1983 ... 302m 1984 ... 233m 1985 ... 284m 1986 ... 280m 1987 ... 269m 1988 ... 275m 1989 ... 310m 1990 ... 305m 1991 ... 271m 1992 ... 309m 1993 ... 296m 1994 ... 238m 1995 ... 280m 1996 ... 325m 1997 ... 348m 1998 ... 452m 1999 ... 283m 2000 ... 311m 2001 ... 310m 2002 ... 302m 2003 ... 407m 2004 ... 509m 2005 ... 323m 2006 ... 300m 2007 ... 319m 2008 ... 489m 2009 ... 357m Thanks again!
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FutureTimeline.net... Last edited by wjfox; May 14th, 2010 at 11:30 PM. 
May 10th, 2010, 11:34 PM  #17 
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Bump. Is there anyone who can help me with this?
I'd really appreciate it.
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May 11th, 2010, 02:28 AM  #18 
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With out meaning to piss on anyones parade but given the inputs you'll be just as accurate getting a ruler and drawing a straight line at an angle which best fits what ever answer you want to get....
I realise I'm being negative, but thats all I can be for this scenario! 
May 11th, 2010, 04:38 AM  #19 
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Awesome thread, though one thing. Q1's (2005's tallest building, iirc) spire height is 323m (I believe you've included spire height for Burj Khalifa and Taipei 101?).

May 14th, 2010, 11:24 PM  #20 
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Well, I was really hoping somebody could help...
*looks at 540_804* ... so that I could produce a more accurate trend line. As explained in post #16, I'd like to run the data again, using just the 19402009 range. If anyone knows Mini Tab, or has any other statistical software and could help, I'd be *really* grateful. Thanks. I'll edit the data list.
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