Will Chicago ever have a late 1920's highrise building boom again?

[The Urban Politician]

Originally Posted by Dralcoffin

For the historical perspective, to show the past booms, I looked by year to see how many highrises (over 12 floors) were completed each year:

1885 - 4
1886 - 1
1887 - 0
1888 - 1
1889 - 3
1890 - 4
1891 - 3
1892 - 9
1893 - 9
1894 - 4
1895 - 4
1896 - 2
1897 - 2
1898 - 1
1899 - 1
1900 - 2
1901 - 0
1902 - 4
1903 - 4
1904 - 4
1905 - 8
1906 - 6
1907 - 2
1908 - 6
1909 - 2
1910 - 7
1911 - 7
1912 - 14
1913 - 10
1914 - 6
1915 - 4
1916 - 4
1917 - 2
1918 - 5
1919 - 2
1920 - 5
1921 - 1
1922 - 10
1923 - 10
1924 - 16
1925 - 13
1926 - 29
1927 - 49
1928 - 52
1929 - 42
1930 - 23
1931 - 5
1932 - 4
1933 - 0
1934 - 1
1935 - 0
1936 - 1
1937 - 1
1938 - 0
1939 - 1
1940 - 0
1941 - 1
1942 - 0
1943 - 0
1944 - 0
1945 - 0
1946 - 0
1947 - 0
1948 - 0
1949 - 2
1950 - 4
1951 - 20
1952 - 10
1953 - 3
1954 - 3
1955 - 14
1956 - 6
1957 - 5
1958 - 15
1959 - 15
1960 - 14
1961 - 42 (Robert Taylor Homes)
1962 - 37
1963 - 27
1964 - 19
1965 - 27
1966 - 22
1967 - 19
1968 - 26
1969 - 32
1970 - 22
1971 - 23
1972 - 26
1973 - 18
1974 - 24
1975 - 10
1976 - 7
1977 - 3
1978 - 3
1979 - 10
1980 - 11
1981 - 16
1982 - 8
1983 - 15
1984 - 8
1985 - 9
1986 - 14
1987 - 15
1988 - 4
1989 - 9
1990 - 19
1991 - 12
1992 - 7
1993 - 0
1994 - 1
1995 - 0
1996 - 2
1997 - 3
1998 - 4
1999 - 7
2000 - 11
2001 - 17
2002 - 15
2003 - 20
2004 - 21
2005 - 16
2006 - 14
2007 - 15
2008 - 32
2009 - 20
2010 - 16 (counting UC but not on hold)

Total: 1,279 (1,122 not demolished)

This was posted at SSP but I wanted to start a discussion here. Look at the late 1920's as a whole, and now look at the 3 bolded years. In a mere two years spanning 1927-1928, Chicago saw 101 highrises built.

Those awe-inspiring numbers are in the clouds compared to the current boom we've just experienced, and that's considering that, by most accounts, the current boom is regarded as a very impressive one. In the current boom, Chicago only saw one year with more than 30 highrises under construction (2008). Compare that to the 1920's, in which 3 years saw more than 40 highrises u/c in a row.

My question: is the highrise building frenzy of the late 1920's ever going to be seen again, or is it likely to be a one time anamoly in America's (and Chicago's) history?

[The Urban Politician]

To think of it in a different way, almost 10% of Chicago's 125+ year highrise inventory was built in 2 years.

[tpe]

It's interesting to see the big drop between 1930 and 1931 -- the reason is of course obvious.

As to when we'll see such numbers again (if ever), it's hard to say. Would it be correct to assume that most of those building were in the Loop?

[Mr Downtown]

The late 1920s were the very definition of irrational exuberance. Extending the historical growth rate indefinitely into the future, people thought Chicago was destined to become the largest city in the world. They didn't foresee the wartime industrialization of the South, the invention of air conditioning, easy mortgages for working-class families, or the growth of Southern California.

To answer your question, though, I think the retirement of Baby Boomers could spark another hundred residential highrises downtown by 2050. I predict fewer than a dozen office highrises in that same time period.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Mr Downtown

To answer your question, though, I think the retirement of Baby Boomers could spark another hundred residential highrises downtown by 2050. I predict fewer than a dozen office highrises in that same time period.

wait, are you seriously predicting that chicago will erect less than a dozen office buildings over the course of the next 4 decades? say what?

i know that you're our resident eternal pessimist, but that seems egregiously "sky is falling", even for you.

[Northsider]

I just don't ever see it reaching those levels of growth again. I realize cities have had a renaissance in the past decade or so, but it's hard to imagine that many people (baby boomers included) wanting to move into Chicago as opposed to the suburbs.

...but who knows...policies change, economies change. Related to that, if do ever see such an explosion of building, I think we seriously need to do away with mandatory parking requirements by developers (if this hasn't already been removed, I'm not up to do date)

[Flubnut]

I'd be curious to see the median, mean and total floor heights per year as well. Most downtown buildings today end up in the 40-60 floor range. There might be fewer buildings going up now than in the 20's, but they're also 2-3x the size.

[Mr Downtown]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

wait, are you seriously predicting that chicago will erect less than a dozen office buildings over the course of the next 4 decades? say what?

Well, you could talk me into 20 rather than 12. But where's the new demand going to come from? Most of the last two booms has merely been churn, driven by changing technology, cheap credit, TIF giveaways, and the lure of the West Loop train stations to suburban leasing decisionmakers. So we've been abandoning (to residential) East Loop space almost as fast as we've been building West Loop space. The only big bright spot I see on the horizon for downtown office demand is companies choosing downtown rather than suburban office parks because the Millennials view suburban workplaces as uncool. We saw some of that in the last boom, and it could accelerate if gas prices go way up but downtown transit stays good.

The Central Area Action Plan is more optimistic than I am, predicting an annual increase in downtown office inventory of 1.2 to 1.5 msf by 2020. That would be three typical Hines towers a year.

[DCT]

I think Flubnut has a good point. The threshold is only 12 stories. I wouldn't be surprised if there were more square feet, above 12 stories, added in the recent boom than there were added in the boom of the 1920s. Better yet, how about a 3d plot of time vs square feet vs floors. Then, you could see the progression through time.

[tpe]

Originally Posted by DCT

I think Flubnut has a good point...

I agree. It would be interesting to look at other metrics as opposed to just number of buildings.

[Steely Dan]

*off topic posts deleted at the request of the thread starter*

this thread is about another highrise boom potentially taking place in chicago, if you guys want talk about portland, that's cool, but take it to a different sub-forum.

[chrome13]

Hopefully not. Plan on it being a few more decades, if ever, that we even repeat what occured the last 10 years.

[urbanlife78]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

*off topic posts deleted at the request of the thread starter*

this thread is about another highrise boom potentially taking place in chicago, if you guys want talk about portland, that's cool, but take it to a different sub-forum.

couldnt they of just been moved, that was actually an interesting conversation that was going on??

[Northsider]

Originally Posted by urbanlife78

couldnt they of just been moved, that was actually an interesting conversation that was going on??

I was enjoying it, but c'est la vie.