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Old May 12th, 2010, 07:27 PM   #1
Lockheed_F-22
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Irish Economy Thread

So, as we all are experiencing a financial crisis at the moment, it would be quite useful to have a thread like this here, so feel free to post any economically related articles, quotes, statistics here
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Old May 12th, 2010, 07:29 PM   #2
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I'll make a start here

Bord Gais to create 500 jobs

http://www.independent.ie/business/i...s-2176853.html

Quote:
Wednesday May 12 2010

Irish energy provider Bord Gais is planning to create 500 new jobs over the next three years and invest 3 billion euro in the economy during the coming decade, it has been announced.

The company said the imminent opening of the 445 MW Whitegate Power Station in Co Cork and its acquisition of SWS, one of the largest wind generators in the country, represented major milestones in the company's growth.

At the publication of its 2009 annual report, chief executive John Mullins said: "Over the next decade the company will invest 3 billion euro in the Irish economy, creating significant employment and substantially growing the value of our assets."

Bord Gais said its 500 million euro investment in SWS will see 17 windfarms rolled out across the country from Donegal to Kerry over the next three years.

Of the 500 jobs, some 250 will be in home services, including installation, energy saving for homes and office jobs, with the other 250 in the construction of the wind farms.

The company said 350,000 customers have switched to Bord Gais Energy bringing the total number of customers to more than one million.

The energy supplier said it is now positioned to produce up to 1500MW of electricity over the next few years.

Press Association
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Old May 13th, 2010, 12:46 PM   #3
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Latest from Goodbody Stockbrokers


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New Report from Goodbody Stockbrokers says earlier than expected end to the recession in Q4 2009 has been confirmed by latest data

Goodbody expects CSO data to confirm these views at the end of June
Goodbody upgrades its 2010 GDP forecast from the previous estimate of -1% to 0%, followed by growth of 1.3% expected in 2011

Earlier than expected return to growth will help in achieving stability in the public finances and in the banking sector

Issued Thursday 13 May, 2010. A new report from Goodbody Stockbrokers says recent Irish economic data indicates that the recession ended in Q4 2009 and that sequential growth resumed in the economy at the beginning of 2010 for the first time in two years. As a result, the broker is upgrading its Irish growth forecasts and now expects GDP to be flat in 2010 (previously -1%). GNP is expected to decline by 0.5%, as the external sector leads the recovery for the Irish economy. However, these annual average forecast hide positive momentum through the year.

A plethora of indicators, as well as some more positive comments from some Irish corporates, have pointed to a return to growth recently. This has been led by external parts of the economy but domestic activity also shows signs of stabilisation.

Goodbody highlighted its concerns around consumer confidence in its most recent quarterly Economic Commentary (In calmer waters, 6 April 2010). These concerns remain, but evidence from car sales, core retail sales, VAT receipts and now consumer confidence, suggest that the large increase in savings seen in 2009 was partly reversed at the beginning of this year. As a result, Goodbody now believes that consumer spending will effectively remain flat in 2010. With a slowing in income growth and rising interest rates in 2011, Goodbody expects modest growth next year of 1.3%. However, with construction activity expected to hit a floor in 2010, it expects the domestic parts of the economy to grow by 1% in 2011, despite the impact of continued fiscal consolidation.

Dermot O’Leary, Chief Economist, Goodbody Stockbrokers, said “We have been saying for some time that Ireland would benefit from a global upturn. Our initial view was that we would see an export-led recovery around the middle of the year, but recent data has provided a pleasant surprise, showing that the expected export-led recovery began in the first quarter, much earlier than anticipated. The next question is what type of recovery will emerge. Given that it will be led by exports, it is unlikely to be employment intensive, but the earlier stabilisation in consumer spending will help in this regard. The Irish economy still faces many challenges, including adhering strictly to the fiscal consolidation programme, banking sector rehabilitation and gains in competitiveness. However, the earlier than anticipated return to growth can only help in achieving these goals.”

Report here

http://www.politics.ie/downloads/201...ion%20over.pdf
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Old May 14th, 2010, 01:19 AM   #4
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What happened to the 3% for 2010 that 'experts' aka bullshitters were flaunting only last week?

As I have always said, based on my actual economic education, 3% was an utterly absurd figure.
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Old May 14th, 2010, 01:49 AM   #5
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Different agencies have different opinions. They are each giving their predictions and observations in the run up to actual data from the CSO. Everyone agrees the economy has left recession but vary on their observations.


Reports today that car sales, often a good indicator, were up something in the order of 70% compared to this time last year. So clearly things are changing faster then anyone anticipated on the domestic front aided by the general global recovery which is reflected in the strong export performance.
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Old May 14th, 2010, 01:56 AM   #6
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Yeah..............see there is a massive difference between 0% and 3%.


As I said, I'll stick to what I know and have been trained to interpret, and as proven on many many occasions I have been right.
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Old May 14th, 2010, 02:06 AM   #7
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I think that Goodbody's report is conservative (it's already up 0.6% since it's last report in April) and that given the real indicators already available growth for the 1st quarter is going to be in excess of what they say. Probrably not as dramatic as Davy's prediction but closer the EC outlook.


Anyone with a very basic grasp of economics observing the consumption figures for the 1st quarter would see a static rate of growth in the first as highly unlikely.
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Old May 14th, 2010, 02:10 AM   #8
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Yes....but those with a grasp of economic don't merely look at consumption. There is a broader range of variants and factors which influence economic growth, all of which feed into a summarised projected economic forecast.
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Old May 14th, 2010, 02:12 AM   #9
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Old May 16th, 2010, 01:52 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belfastuniguy View Post
What happened to the 3% for 2010 that 'experts' aka bullshitters were flaunting only last week?

As I have always said, based on my actual economic education, 3% was an utterly absurd figure.
I'll continue to give greater significance to the bullshitter economic experts of, the European Commission based organisation, Eurostat than some contemptuous spoofer on an internet forum.
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Old May 16th, 2010, 02:01 PM   #11
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Here's a linky by the way.
We're not stupid or in denial in the Republic that our economy is going through the doldrums, but your childish nineteenth-century-esque comments are particularly tiresome.
It's a bit of good news, and it is from a reliable source... Why not leave it at that, instead of harping on with your blatantly biased comments.
I think most people from the Republic would be more than happy to see similar news for one of our largest trading partners, the UK and our nearest neighbours in the North.

EDIT: Purely for selfish economic reasoning of course; not out of the goodnes of our hearts!


http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0505/eurozone.html

Last edited by nordisk celt83; May 16th, 2010 at 02:09 PM.
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Old May 16th, 2010, 08:57 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nordisk celt83 View Post
I'll continue to give greater significance to the bullshitter economic experts of, the European Commission based organisation, Eurostat than some contemptuous spoofer on an internet forum.

Nothing spoof about it, I'll email you test marks for the economics degree if you wish.....directly pasted from the Queens QSIS portal, I'll then expect you to post a public apology

One report said annual growth would be 0% then another said it would be 3%. There's rather a big difference there, which you failed to explain in your grandiose pedestal perched statement.
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Old May 16th, 2010, 09:12 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belfastuniguy View Post
Nothing spoof about it, I'll email you test marks for the economics degree if you wish.....directly pasted from the Queens QSIS portal, I'll then expect you to post a public apology

One report said annual growth would be 0% then another said it would be 3%. There's rather a big difference there, which you failed to explain in your grandiose pedestal perched statement.
Yes, reports contradict each other the whole time. One may be rihght, one may be wrong. Who knows???? Not me!

However, I most certainly give more credence to Eurostat/E.U Commission than someone with a primary degree from Queens.
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Old May 16th, 2010, 09:14 PM   #14
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In a few years we will be back to normal and the cycle will begin again.

Ireland is a transformed country thanks to the decisions made by our government over the last 30 years. We have some of the best public infrastructure anywhere in Europe. Still long way to go but we can do it.
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Old May 16th, 2010, 09:15 PM   #15
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Eurostat....you mean the agency that was embroiled in a corruption scandal a few years ago and has failed on several occasion to have it's accounts approved by the European Union auditors.

Can't be very good if a statistical agency can even get their own books right...


I also see you have failed to apologise.
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Old May 16th, 2010, 09:18 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belfastuniguy View Post
Eurostat....you mean the agency that was embroiled in a corruption scandal a few years ago and has failed on several occasion to have it's accounts approved by the European Union auditors.

Can't be very good if a statistical agency can even get their own books right...


I also see you have failed to apologise.
Eurostat/self-interested mult-national stockbrokers v's some nobody on an internet forum???
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Old May 16th, 2010, 09:18 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plank007 View Post
I'm not worried

In a few years we will back to normal and the cycle will begin again.

Ireland is a transformed country, which some of the best public infrastructure in Europe. Still long way to go but we can do it.

Normal is rather subjective.

I certainly agree it's on its way to a full recovery, but the economic structures during that recovery will be different to the ones that existed during the previous era of growth. Prosperity will continue, I guarantee that, but it's incredibly unlikely Ireland will again experience the levels of economic growth it once did.

That's not a bad thing in general, especially as the new period of growth will be more stable and will be rooted in somewhat firmer ground. One hopes anyway....
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Old May 16th, 2010, 09:20 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nordisk celt83 View Post
Eurostat/self-interested mult-national stockbrokers v's some nobody on an internet forum???

A nobody that has consistently been proved completely correct when discussing economic issues in these threads......go on.....have a browse through them
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Old May 16th, 2010, 09:27 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belfastuniguy View Post
A nobody that has consistently been proved completely correct when discussing economic issues in this thread......go on.....have a browse through the thread
I don't doubt that the forecasts may or may not be wrong, but a primary degree from Queens, and no real work experience with an international organisation really doesn't give you any basis on which to expect people to believe anything you say in the real world.
Your posts are obviously coloured by a bias. Your immaturity displayed in a certain episode pertaining to another individual on this forum means that I will continue to give my attention to internationally renowned organisations, and not some random person with an agenda behind a computer screen in Down.
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Old May 16th, 2010, 09:30 PM   #20
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As for bias, I have on many occasions praised how the Irish economy reformed and developed and the prosperity it delivered. I have also highlighted economic inaccuracies from the nationalists such as Odlum in their attempt to 'big up' or make claims that have no basis. There's nothing wrong with that and it's hardly a form of bias.

I have also criticised the Northern Irish, British and global economies for failures, so again.....no element of bias there. In addition, I have also expressed that a united Ireland will happen and likely before I die and at all times stated that the democratic will of the people is paramount and once both Northern Ireland and Ireland have harmonised laws, social structures and economies then I see no issue with such an eventuality.

Last edited by belfastuniguy; May 16th, 2010 at 09:37 PM.
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