Irish Economy Thread

[Catmalojin]

That's a great article, but when you click onto the page it says that it was written by IDA Ireland’s Barry O’Dowd. He wouldn't be biased at all!

[richiek83]

This is how a Government can use Fiscal Policy to control a buoyant housing market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...east-asia.html

[belfastuniguy]

Not great news for the Irish or UK economy....

The eurozone has returned to recession as the region's debt crisis continues to hurt demand, latest official statistics show.

The economy of the 17-nation bloc contracted by 0.1% between July and September, after shrinking 0.2% in the previous three months, Eurostat said.

In comparison the UK grew by 1% in the quarter, while the US grew by 0.5%.

The eurozone was last in recession in 2009, when the economy contracted for five consecutive quarters.

Analysts said that the eurozone was unlikely to have improved in the current quarter.

"We are now talking about the fourth quarter already and there the figures show that things are not looking as good," said Christian Schultz, an economist at Barenberg Bank.

BBC

[odlum833]

A never ending cycle of delinquency from the EU institutions. Instead of dealing with the crisis they keep fudging and it gets worse. Now it's effecting the "core" countries.

Auction this morning - interest rate was just 0.55% vs 0.7% last time.

[Catmalojin]

Great potential seen for gaming sector in Ireland

DICK AHLSTROM and CIARA O'BRIEN

Fri, Nov 16, 2012

Ireland is well placed to benefit from growing world demand for electronic games. We have the technical expertise and the science, but also the creativity and artistic skills to succeed, said the founder of Irish companies Havok and Swrve. Steve Collins was speaking yesterday at the press launch of a new exhibition at the Science Gallery, Game: the future of play.

A comprehensive report on the games industry in Ireland was also launched yesterday. The sector employs more than 2,800 people in the Republic and generated sales of more than €2 billion over the past 11 years, it indicates.

This exhibit ranks as one of the most appealing yet offered by the Science Gallery, with visitor participation encouraged at every exhibit. Try walking through a virtual world or make a vicious troll dance. Visitors can play the old Space Invaders game, only updated so they battle the approaching aliens by moving about rather than using a controller.

The old Ping Pong game has also been recycled in an exhibit called Re-Pong where the player paddles have been linked by big springs to introduce a much more challenging game.

“In the last two or three years the games industry has been turned on its head,” Mr Collins said. Development was in the hands of major companies but now anyone can become a developer via phone apps. The changes were “challenging people’s perceptions of what a game is and who gamers are”, he said.

He co-curated the exhibition with gallery director Michael John Gorman and Mads Haahr of Trinity College Dublin. “We wanted to explore where games technology is going,” Mr Gorman said.

The industry report, authored by Jamie McCormick for GamesDevelopers.ie, found that even after some high-profile layoffs and closures there has been an estimated 91 per cent increase in the number of people working in the games industry since 2009.

A Forfás survey, following last year’s report, took account of the contraction in the industry, with about 590 jobs lost. The survey found that although there had been some closures and a reduction in investment by international firms, 11 development firms and one middleware company had entered the indigenous market. Further firms had also set up after the report’s second survey in October.

The major firms all began as small companies, Mr McCormick said, and the future big players in the games industry could begin from two developers working together in a garage.

© 2012 The Irish Times

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[odlum833]

Yield (Interest rate) on 9 year Irish gov bond has fallen to it's lowest level since the crisis began on Friday to 4.66% (-1.65%).

[odlum833]

7 year government bond has fallen below 4% yield this morning

[thebig C]

Originally Posted by odlum833

7 year government bond has fallen below 4% yield this morning

Hey Mate

Thanks for keeping us posted on this issue. Given that we have far cheaper funding available under the bailout programme until next year, what do you think is the logical level for the bond yeild to fall to? Obviously, it has to start bottoming out at some point?

I wonder what effect the budget will have. Either it will drive rates lower as the Government are seen to be taking firm action. Or, it might be seen to dampen demand and stunt the domestic economy and thus push rates upwards.

C

[richiek83]

Originally Posted by thebig C

Hey Mate

Thanks for keeping us posted on this issue. Given that we have far cheaper funding available under the bailout programme until next year, what do you think is the logical level for the bond yeild to fall to? Obviously, it has to start bottoming out at some point?

I wonder what effect the budget will have. Either it will drive rates lower as the Government are seen to be taking firm action. Or, it might be seen to dampen demand and stunt the domestic economy and thus push rates upwards.

C

Big drop today in nine year yields. Down 3.7% so far to stand at 4.48%.


http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GIGB9YR:IND

Compare that to Italy's ten year yield which is at 4.87%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND

[odlum833]

Yeah big drops today. 5 year is almost under 3% down almost 6% on the day

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GIGB5YR:IND/

[Catmalojin]

Bruton plan to get most from green economy

HARRY McGEE, Political Correspondent

Fri, Nov 23, 2012

Minister for Jobs and Enterprise Richard Bruton will launch a major green strategy which the Government says has the potential to create 10,000 new jobs over the next three years.

The green jobs initiative is a central part of the Government’s jobs strategy, and aims to ensure the State benefits to the fullest from the green economy.

The global estimate is that it is already worth more than €3.7 trillion, employs more than 30 million, and is projected to grow at 3.7 per cent per year over the coming years.

The document, Delivering our Green Potential, outlines the Government’s plans to develop green and sustainable jobs.

Pay as You Save

A central part of the initiative is the Pay as You Save scheme, which will be launched in 2014.

This programme, overseen by Minister for Energy Pat Rabbitte, has set itself a target of retrofitting one million Irish homes by 2020 to bring down their energy costs.

The idea behind it is that energy companies will bear the upfront cost of improving insulation which the householders will pay through their utility bills for a number of years.

No figure has been given in the document for how this ambitious multibillion euro programme will be financed.

In a recent report on climate change targets, the National Economic and Social Council expressed some concern over whether that target would be reached. It pointed out that take-up for home insulation had fallen considerably.

National grid

Under the initiative the Government has promised to connect at least 200 megawatts of new renewable generation to the national grid each year.

Enterprise Ireland will also work with indigenous companies to identify and develop export opportunities for green goods and services.

There are also plans to attract more green financial service companies to Ireland and to set up a Green IFSC that would handle green and sustainable assets and investments.

In agriculture there is a commitment to support a sustainable approach through Food Harvest 2020.

The policy document also targets growth in green tourism; a widespread introduction of smart meters; the forming of “green clusters” of industry in certain centres; and a shift towards green and sustainable policies in the €14 billion annual public procurement budget.

© 2012 The Irish Times

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[odlum833]

AIB back in the market today

AIB to sell €500m covered bond - reports





Updated: 13:03, Wednesday, 28 November 2012

AIB hoping to copy Bank of Ireland's bond market success

AIB has started taking orders on a €500m three-year bond today, building on a resurgence in Irish capital markets.

Hoping to emulate the debt market success of Bank of Ireland earlier this month, AIB started marketing the paper according to reports from Reuters.

Bank of Ireland's three-year covered bond, which reopened the country's bank debt market in mid November, was used as a reference for pricing.

Its €1 billion three-year deal was another watershed moment for financial institutions from the euro zone's periphery, who are keen to wean themselves off ECB liquidity at affordable rates.

According to a banker involved in the deal, AIB was opting to sell a smaller offering than Bank of Ireland.

"We're now going to come flat to where Bank of Ireland priced which is a great result," he said. "AIB is a more challenging name and so it makes sense not to match Bank of Ireland," he added.

Irish banks and corporations have been cementing their path to rehabilitation over the past month which has resulted in a number of transactions. The ESB raised €500m worth of seven-year debt that attracted around €6 billion of demand in mid November and was followed up by Bord Gais Eireann that sold five-year debt that was 13 times subscribed.

[Rapter]

Property Tax rate may be set at 0.2% of home value

The Cabinet is considering the introduction of a Property Tax that would be calculated at 0.2% of the value of a home.

The tax is due to be unveiled in the upcoming Budget and introduced in July 2013, replacing the Household Charge.

The 0.2% rate would mean a property worth €175,000 would pay €350 annually and a home worth €275,000 would pay €550.

As the charge will come into effect in the middle of 2013, home owners will only be hit with half of the charge next year and a full levy in 2014.

It is expected that PAYE taxpayers would have the Property Tax deducted as a tax at source.

This would allow for payments to be spread instead of paid in a lump sum.

However, there is a possibility that the Government could increase the charge to 0.25% of the value of a home if tax revenue for November is weaker than had been hoped.

There is speculation that Corporation Tax, which is paid by companies on their profits, may not be as strong as it had been in earlier months.

November is also a critical month because it is time when self-assessed income earners file their tax returns.

Speaking to journalists today the Minister for Finance Michael Noonan said that there was an expectation that the Budget would be tough but he stressed it would be fair.

This sucks, I wonder how many more taxes they will introduce or increase. This particular one is maybe not such a big thing, but that's one of few (if not many) besides, as far as I'm hearing, Ireland is well on track on paying back it's debts, and taxes are still raising...

I also have a feeling, that road taxes will increase as well...

[Dvblvnia]

Some headlines from the QNHS

1. Unemployment levels down 1.1%, first time that's been recorded since about 2005.
2. Long-term unemployment now 60% of all unemployment.
3. A slowdown in the contraction of the labour market, 0.4% in the year to Q3 2012 compared to 1% to Q3 2011.
4. Construction still shedding jobs, down 7,400. Down about 60% on 2007 levels.
5. Agriculture continues its renaissance with numbers employed up 3,200.

Full report here: http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/rel...nhs_q32012.pdf

There's also an interesting trend emerging in retail sales, we've now had the fourth month in a row of increases which is rather significant. One thing which must always be remembered is that one month's worth of data doesn't mean anything beside a datapoint. However four month's worth does begin to represent a trend. While Saorview switchover sales and the iPhone 5 are one-off boosts to electrical sales, there nonetheless is a much stronger characteristic to retail sales these days. Hopefully Budget 2013 doesn't pour cold water over this smouldering recovery in the retail sector. Release here: http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/rel...si_oct2012.pdf

[odlum833]

Dropbox to establish headquarters in Dublin
Updated: 09:36, Monday, 03 December 2012

Dropbox allows users access to documents from a variety of devices anywhere in the world

Technology firm Dropbox is to establish its international headquarters in Dublin with the creation of 30 to 40 jobs in the next year.

Further jobs expansion is planned.

Dropbox is an internet-based service that allows its 100 million users to access their documents from a range of different devices anywhere in the world.

The Irish office will provide technical support and other functions.

In a statement Dropbox said it plans to begin recruiting immediately for a range of different roles.

"We're delighted to be closer to millions of our European customers," said Drew Houston, CEO and co-founder of Dropbox. "By opening our international headquarters in Dublin and tapping into the large talent pool that exists there, we're better positioned to serve even more people locally while we continue to grow."

The investment is being supported by IDA Ireland.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1203/dro...-business.html

Healthcare provider to create 200 jobs


Some 200 jobs are to be created by Dublin-headquartered company Centric Health, with the construction of 10 new primary healthcare centres and the expansion of the company’s diagnostics business.

The expansion follows a €20 million investment by European private equity group Metric Capital Partners.

Centric Health, which employs 350 people, already operates 10 primary care and GP centres across the State. It is also a joint venture partner in VHI Swiftcare.

Centric separately operates a medical recruitment business, which specialises in GP recruitment in Ireland, Britain and Australia.

In addition Centric is a 75 per cent shareholder in Global Diagnostics, a medical diagnostics business with operations also in Ireland, Britain and Australia. Under the new deal, Centric is acquiring the remainder of the firm.

About 50 of the 200 new jobs are expected to come on stream within the next year, and will include positions for medical, paramedical and administrative staff. The first centre is due to open in Newbridge in February, with plans under way for centres in Celbridge and the Navan Road in Dublin. The primary care centres will be run alongside the Health Service Executive.

It is envisaged that Centric will operate about 20 per cent of each facility with the remainder leased to the HSE.

Centric chief executive Maurice Cox said the injection of new capital would allow the company to double its primary care centre operations, in line with the Government’s commitment to developing primary care facilities.

“We are delighted to be playing our part in the delivery of a world-class primary care system in Ireland, which is a central plank of the Government’s health policy, while at the same time focus on our growing diagnostics business,” he said.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...327388738.html

Next »

Up to 1000 new jobs projected for Shannon aviation sector
Updated: 11:59, Monday, 03 December 2012


Shannon Airport is to be separated from the DAA at the end of the year


Up to 1000 jobs in the aviation sector are expected to come to Shannon as it prepares to become a totally independent airport by the end of the year.

An announcement about the future of the airport is to be made today by Transport Minister Leo Varadkar and Enterprise Minister Richard Bruton.

The Government announced last May it had decided to separate Shannon airport from the DAA, and bring it and Shannon Development together to become a new commercial entity in public ownership.

Since then an Aviation business development taskforce, headed by businesswoman Rose Hynes, a former member of the Shannon Airport board, has been working towards making Shannon independent.

It is understood that taskforce has gotten investment commitments from two businesses, based in the aviation and aircraft maintenance sector, which could bring 850 jobs to Shannon in three years and a further 150 in five years.

The commitments are based on Shannon being an independent commercial entity.

While passenger and airline businesses will continue to be at the core of the Shannon operation, the intention of the Government is that the region will develop into an international aviation hub, attracting a wide section of aviation business.

220 people are employed at Shannon at present. Unions say the Government’s business plan is ambitious and they have concerns that those jobs will be threatened if the future investment plans do not materialise.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1203/up-...r-shannon.html

Cantor Fitzgerald acquires Dolmen Stockbrokers
Updated: 12:13, Monday, 03 December 2012

Cantor Fitzgerald hopes to become a primary dealer in government bonds here


Stockbroking company Dolmen has been taken over US group Cantor FitzGerald.

Under new ownership Dolmen will become a primary dealer in Irish Government bonds, which means it will sell debt international investors.

Cantor plans to hire additional staff in Ireland.

At present Dolmen has 200 employees.

The US company lost two thirds of its New York workforce in the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers when 658 staff members died.

Since the attacks it has Cantor FitzGerald rebuilt and now has an office in mid town Manhattan.



Last year Dolmen lost €250,000 which is an improvement on its 2010 performance when it lost €1.26m. The company has no borrowings.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1203/can...-business.html

Good news on manufacturing index front. Ireland's November manufacturing expansion is the fastest in the eurozone. In fact it's the only one growing in the eurozone.







Ireland strong!

[Rapter]

Another piece of good news

Unemployment rate fell marginally last month

The unemployment rate fell to 14.6% in November, down from 14.7% the previous month.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of people on the Live Register was 432,300 in November - a monthly decrease of 1,500.

The number of long term claimants in November increased on an annual basis by 3.7% to 186,562.

The number of male long term claimants increased by 1,358 (+1.0%) in the year to November, while the comparable increase for females was 5,314 (+10.7%).

In November 55.3% (230,715) of all claimants on the Live Register were short term claimants.

The comparable figure for November 2011 was 58.1% (249,677).

In the year to November, the number of under-25s on the Live Register decreased by 1.1%.

Annual decreases in that age cohort have been continuous each month since July 2010.

The percentage of under 25s on the Register now stands at 16.1%, down from 17.6% in November 2011 and 18.9% in November 2010.

Reacting to the figures, Alan McQuaid, Chief Economist with Merrion Stockbrokers said the process of tackling the unemployment problem would be slow.

"It will be a number of years before the jobless rate falls back into single digits. The average unemployment rate in 2011 was 14.6% and is expected to be higher this year at 14.8%, though this is forecast to be the worst of it. We are looking for some improvement in 2013 with the average jobless rate projected to fall back to 14.3%," he said.

Mark Fielding of the Irish Small and Medium Enterprise Association said the level of youth emigration was disguising an unemployment crisis.

"The key to a return to growth is consumer confidence, which will be restored through increased jobs but will only happen when business costs are curtailed. The Budget is an ideal mechanism for creating an environment in which SMEs can be financially encouraged to increase employment," he said.

[thebig C]

Interesting.....thats a couple of months that its fallen I believe!

How long before it becomes a definable trend?

C

[Dvblvnia]

Ireland's service sector PMI also leads the way, 56.1 was the reading for November which is unchanged from October. Optimism has edged up and crucially the employment sub-index has increased from 53.4 to 54. Combined with the growth in manufacturing employment we can maybe begin to hope that we are in fact starting to get a jobful recovery which the Live Register seems to indicate rather than an increase of emigration in the jobseeking cohorts of the economy.

November's tax returns were disappointing though. It's bad to see tax revenue targets missed when we're trying so hard to stabilise our public finances.

[Dvblvnia]

The Live Register figure is also politically important for the Coalition in that it's lower than when they took power. Like the way Obama came under pressure because of high unemployment but managed to win because he helped to bring it just below what he inherited, our government could profit electorally for having a lower unemployment rate than when they took over - even if it is in double digits. It's also noteworthy how little Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil are making of the current Live Register rate. It demonstrates how with each fall of a thousand or so, it becomes that bit less of a liability for the current government. That said, we need to be seeing it fall by 3 to 4,000 a month to confidently declare the recovery in the labour market. We could be seeing the effects of emigration rather than economic recovery in these Live Register figures.

[Catmalojin]

IMC strikes gold in north Co Wexford
Updated: 07:41, Wednesday, 12 December 2012

An exploration firm has struck gold in the southeast in a find that could be worth tens of millions of euro.

The IMC Exploration Group says it has found "exceptionally high" levels of gold during exploratory drilling in north Co Wexford.

The mineral prospector says the encouraging quantities of gold found at the test site could result in a gold mine being opened in the region in the coming years.

IMC has been awarded 21 mineral prospecting licences by the Government over the last three years - three gold and 18 base metal licences.

IMC Director Neil Ring has said the find could be the biggest of its kind in Ireland.

"The concentration of gold per tonne in the sample we have had assayed is 11.3 ounces," Mr Ring said.

“Now to put that into perspective, the Clontibret find in Monaghan is 1.24 grammes per tonne. 11 ounces is 354 grammes, so it's a very significant high level, high grade find."

Story from RTÉ News:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1212/gold-wexford-imc.html

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