Irish Economy Thread

[nordisk celt83]

Originally Posted by Thefancydanhimself

Oh christ here we go.....

Nah, no one will engage with such overtly contemptual posts. Interacting with posters who actively go on to forums to bad mouth and point out faults in foreign countries is below most on the ROI forum.
Infact, very few on the ROI forum would go out of their way to actively bad-mouth a foreign country I'd imagine, (and very very few if any) would initiate it. It's very unbecoming of a person in the 21st century (not so much the 17th though) and utterly futile as it merely illustrates the bitter archaic mindset of the forumer more than anything.
These archaic nineteenth-century hyper nationalist posts aren't worth repsonding to...



Lets stick with articles and surveys of internationally recognised institutions from now on...

[nordisk celt83]

More very bad news re: borrowing costs... Things continue to look worryingly precarious for our future borrowing opportunities. One wonders how long this kind of doubt can be sustained!

Cost of borrowing rises
CIARA O'BRIEN

Bond yields rose again today ahead of tomorrow's scheduled auction by the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA).

Yields on 10-year Government bonds moved as high as 6.354 per cent before falling back a little to 6.348 per cent by 10.43am.The spread between Irish bonds and German bunds was 388 basis points.

The NTMA is to test the market tomorrow with a sale of up to €1.5 billion worth of bonds.

Goodbody stockbrokers this morning said Ireland is likely to pay a slightly higher yield in the auction.

"Skipping a scheduled monthly auction may prove to be counter-productive and send out the wrong signal to the market," said economist Dermot O'Leary. "Paying a slighter higher yield for the issuance is, therefore, likely to be a price worth paying.

Nomura International said this week's bond sales by Ireland and Portugal offer investors "good buying
opportunities" after the debt's recent declines.

"The concessions that are likely to be built into the curves ahead of this week's auctions may create good buying opportunities given the recent tendency for actual peripheral sales to be smooth," a team of European interest-rate strategists led by Nick Firoozye in London wrote today in an investor note. "We remain constructive on Ireland relative to current pricing."

Bond yields have risen in recent weeks amid fears that the State would eventually have to turn to the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout. However, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has said the Government was not facing difficulty raising funds.

Today, the European Union's Economic and Monetary Affairs commissioner Olli Rehn also said he was confident that Ireland would deal with the current problems and repair the financial system.

Separately, the head of Europe's bailout fund Klaus Regling said his "central scenario" is that no country will seek aid from it. "That's based on the assessment that all the member states are moving in the right direction," he said.

Glas Securities said the Government has over €20 billion on hand, lessening any need to seek
outside aid.

"Reports that Ireland may be forced to call on aid from the EU and IMF are overstated in our view," the Dublin-based firm said. "It is worth reiterating that the NTMA is fully funded for the year. We also note that there are exchequer cash Balances in excess of €20 billion that the country could call upon before even considering any calls to the EU/IMF."

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...reaking10.html

[hovis]

Originally Posted by nordisk celt83

Nah, no one will engage with such overtly contemptual posts. Interacting with posters who actively go on to forums to bad mouth and point out faults in foreign countries is below most on the ROI forum.
Infact, very few on the ROI forum would go out of their way to actively bad-mouth a foreign country I'd imagine, (and very very few if any) would initiate it. It's very unbecoming of a person in the 21st century (not so much the 17th though) and utterly futile as it merely illustrates the bitter archaic mindset of the forumer more than anything.
These archaic nineteenth-century hyper nationalist posts aren't worth repsonding to...



Lets stick with articles and surveys of internationally recognised institutions from now on...

just because someone posts on here their own opinion, and it doesn't support fairytale ideas doesn't mean they are deliberately going out of their way to badmouth the south you know... and I'm also sorry that everybody who posts opinions on here aren't experts in finance like you think they should be.
take the chip off that shoulder, the badmouthing isn't about the south's situation, its more aimed at those who live with their heads in the clouds and takes it personally that some people say things that are a bit negative.

[nordisk celt83]

Originally Posted by hovis

just because someone posts on here their own opinion, and it doesn't support fairytale ideas doesn't mean they are deliberately going out of their way to badmouth the south you know... and I'm also sorry that everybody who posts opinions on here aren't experts in finance like you think they should be.
take the chip off that shoulder, the badmouthing isn't about the south's situation, its more aimed at those who live with their heads in the clouds and takes it personally that some people say things that are a bit negative.

Care to point out any of the posts that suggest someone living with their head in the clouds???
Posting articles, both positive and negative, about your home country in a forum for your home country with critical comment doesn't indicate someone who is living with their head in the clouds. It's merely posting articles as they appear in Irish newspapers...

Bothering your ass to come on and try to contradict them, because of some petty regional/nationalistic agenda, illustrates severe immauturity and contempt on the posters part alone.

Also, where's the chip??? Care to explain how I have a chip on my shoulder??? Being able to read between the lines and not having a tolerance for idiotic immaturity doesn't denote having a chip on one's shoulder. It merely highlights an intolerance for idiotic nationalist immaturity!!!

[hovis]

Originally Posted by nordisk celt83

Care to point out any of the posts suggest someone living with their in the clouds???
Posting articles, both positive and negative, about your home country in a forum for your home country, with critical comment doesn't indicate someone who is living with their head in the clouds. It's merely posting articles as they appear in Irish newspapers...

Bothering your ass to come on and try to contradict them, because of some petty regional/nationalistic agenda, illustrates severe immauturity and contempt on the pisters part alone.

Also, where's the chip??? Care to explain how I have a chip on my shoulder???

maybe thinking that anyone with anything pessimistic to say about the south is doing so due to a petty regional/nationalistic agenda shows a pretty big pommes de terre julienne...
ok I concede, the head in the clouds quipped was a bit naughty, I'll toe the line and conform with the rules for this post and only say nice fluffy things about the irish economy in case anybody cries with anything verging on nasty truths.

[nordisk celt83]

QUOTE=hovis;64002551]maybe thinking that anyone with anything pessimistic to say about the south is doing so due to a petty regional/nationalistic agenda shows a pretty big pommes julienne...
ok I concede, the head in the clouds quipped was a bit naughty, I'll toe the line and conform with the rules for this post and only say nice fluffy things about the irish economy in case anybody cries with anything verging on nasty truths.

I think it's called being able to read between the lines... Yourself, and other posters who shall not be named, have a rather unveiled contempt and bias when posting that is becoming exceptionally tiring and equally irritating. As I said it's rather unbecoming of a forumer to actively post negatively about a foreign country because of petty hyper-nationalist views, but primarily just because it's downright rude.
It's also unfortunate/embarrassing for the majority of forumers from that jurisdiction who post with interest on matters relating to where they're from, but refrain from enaging in overtly petty posts about what is a foreign country to them...The contempt is just sooooo transparent and exceptionally irritating.
Just don't understand the solely negative interest in a foreign country's economy by certain posters in response to positive stories.


Nice fluffy things only???
Eh have you read my most recent posts on this thread?? Or those of other posters from this jurisdiction??? I think I described the economy as utterly shit in another thread today, and some of the most recent articles I've posted have been about rising borrowing costs and the growth in unemployment.
It's merely the overtly negative and politically agenda based arachaic posts about a foreign country I find particularly mind boggling and irritating, and not ones with genuine negative contnent.


EDIT/PS: I might suggest setting up an NI/UK economy thread...

[hovis]

First, this is in the general Ireland bit, not the RoI bit so I'm allowed to have an opinion.

Second, I really don't like being spoken of as some sort of hate-filled Ulster bigot. I want the south's economy to flourish and strengthen, it's better for everyone.

Third, My negative posts are not aimed at the irish economy per se, I've already said I'm no finance expert. My posts were aimed at the people who post on here saying how wonderful the economy is doing when it's basically bad, those I mentioned with their heads in the clouds, the ones who think Dublin airport's now on a par with Heathrow...
I can only assume by the offence you took that you have these delusions of grandeur too... ?

Lastly, there's no law about where you can and can't post, it's a global website encouraging opinions.

[saoró...]

Originally Posted by hovis

...the ones who think Dublin airport's now on a par with Heathrow...

Of course not! Dublin airport is better than heathrow, heathrow's a mess ;D

[nordisk celt83]

Originally Posted by hovis

First, this is in the general Ireland bit, not the RoI bit so I'm allowed to have an opinion.

Second, I really don't like being spoken of as some sort of hate-filled Ulster bigot. I want the south's economy to flourish and strengthen, it's better for everyone.

Third, My negative posts are not aimed at the irish economy per se, I've already said I'm no finance expert. My posts were aimed at the people who post on here saying how wonderful the economy is doing when it's basically bad, those I mentioned with their heads in the clouds, the ones who think Dublin airport's now on a par with Heathrow...
I can only assume by the offence you took that you have these delusions of grandeur too... ?

Lastly, there's no law about where you can and can't post, it's a global website encouraging opinions.

Delusions of grandeur about a little rainy isand in the North Atlantic that I happen to call home, I think not.

As I've said, you among a select number of posters are so transparent it's almost beyond sickening at this stage.

Naturally you can post where you like, but I'll do as I said above and ignore your tiresome insulting drivel about living standards built on sand and the likes.
You can have the last word, I've already given you too much of the attention you craved in posting. Besides, my original post was directed more at another poster who tried to undemine internationnaly recognised reports by pettily pointing out all the failings in Ireland, so you weren't actually the target of the op.


P.S as for Heathrow: I think you'll find posts comparing the two airports were by posters resident in NI, plank, connor(a very valuable poster) and bug.

[nordisk celt83]

Originally Posted by saoró...

Of course not! Dublin airport is better than heathrow, heathrow's a mess ;D

Feeding the troll and way off topic, but...
True, it's a bit of a disaster; London City Airport is far nicer. I always transited through Amsterdam Schipol, Brussels Zaventem and Frankfurt when travelling home from Luxembourg or on occassions I've travelled to Asia.

Dublin should aspire to be like far superior airports like the ones above in the long-term and can only dream of reaching the standards of airports like Copenhagen Kastrup and Oslo Gardermoen.

[nordisk celt83]

Anyway, I shall stop feeding the usual suspect trolls aspiring to evoke for tit-for-tat jibes, and get back to posting relevant articles.

Irish bonds sold at record high yields today, even higher than Greece which is slightly worrying.

SIZE="6"]NTMA sells Irish bonds worth €1.5 billion at auction[/SIZE]


The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) sold €1.5 billion of bonds in a monthly auction this morning, meeting its target of raising €20 billion in 2010 and is now fully funded through the first half of next year.

In what was being seen as a key test of the market, there was plenty of demand for the securities despite recent turmoil.

The agency sold €1 billion of eight-year bonds at an average yield of 6.023 per cent, compared to 5.088 per cent in June. Bids received were 2.9 times the amount allocated.

Some €500 million of four-year bonds were sold at an average yield of 4.767 per cent, at a bid-to-cover ratio of 5.1 times, compared with 5.4 times at the previous sale.

Analysts welcomed the auction results. " From a market point of view, this is seen as a stunning good result in terms of demand," said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers. "Clearly we're paying higher interest rates. You can't go on paying a premium every single month for an auction. But the NTMA is well funded into next year. We're comfortable in that position. "

Citigroup's chief economist Willem Buiter said today's bond auction today was "great" for investors and "horrible" for taxpayers and the Government.

"From a technical point it was highly successful, over five times oversubscribed," he said.

The yields on 10-year bonds fell following the auction, declining to 6.251 per cent by 11.22am, after hitting a new high yesterday of more than 6.5 per cent. The spread between Irish bonds and the benchmark German bund narrowed to 380 basis points.

Including today's auction, the NTMA said the weighted average cost of funds raised in the bond market this year is 4.7 per cent, the same as the average funding cost in 2009.

European stocks also rallied after the auction, with the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.3 per cent to 266.9 at 10.17am in London.

The NTMA said it will proceed with its planned auction in October.

Bond yields have risen recently amid concerns over Ireland's sovereign debt.

Earlier today, Citigroup's Willem Buiter described the current yield on Irish 10-year bonds as a "ridiculous number". The yields on bonds due to be sold today are "very good," Mr Buiter said. "People should realise that Ireland isn't Greece," he told RTÉ radio this morning.

But international investors, who hold around 85 per cent of Irish public debt, are still wary, seeking clarity on the cost of dealing with Anglo Irish, expected to be announced around the beginning of October, and the latest austerity budget on December 7th.

"The problem is these things aren't going to happen today or tomorrow, they are going to happen over a number of months," said Padhraic Garvey, strategist at ING in Amsterdam. "The disturbing aspect of the price action over the past couple of months is that the wider spreads tend to stick and they are going to stick until we get to the point where international investors start to buy."

Concern that peripheral euro zone countries may need to seek financial aid escalated as Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan said yesterday Ireland may need to cut its budget deficit at a faster pace, hinting at the requirement for more than the €3 billion of cuts forecast for December's budget.

In a note to clients this morning, Davy said the Government may need to cut more than €3 billion from its budget this year. "Further public spending cuts could reduce sovereign funding costs, but might also reduce private demand," said analyst Aidan Corcoran. "This could lead to a situation of delaying the recovery in order to secure it."

German bunds rose today as investors sought the safest European fixed-income assets, and 30-year German bonds also advanced as Spain and Greece also prepared to sell debt today.

While Ireland and Portugal remain under pressure, recent auctions in Spain have gone well and its spreads have fallen, reflecting an easing of some concerns there. It will aim to place €6 billion to €7 billion of 12- and 18-month bills at a sale today. Greece, Europe's main problem child, will sell €300 million of T-bills.

"German government bonds should remain in demand," Viola Stork, an economist at Helaba Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen in Frankfurt, wrote in a client note today. "Rumours about Ireland becoming insolvent have recently led to uncertainty and the risk premiums for government bonds of troubled euro zone countries have increased."

However, European Commission president Jose Barroso said Ireland is taking the "right measures" to tackle its budget deficit.

"All the information we have is that the situation is under control," Mr Barroso said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in New York yesterday. "The government of Ireland has taken very courageous measures from the beginning."

The EU is "following the situation closely," he said. "We believe they have the capacity, also with European Union support, to face any kind of more difficult situation."

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...breaking9.html

[nordisk celt83]

Article in the Irish Times today about the continuing scourge of unemployment.

Long term unemployment rises
External
CSOThe Irish Times takes no responsibility for the content
or availability of other websitesÉANNA Ó CAOLLAÍ

Almost half of the 293,600 people who are unemployed have not worked in 12 months or more, according to data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Some 43 per cent of those who are unemployed are now classified as long-term unemployed, compared with 21.7 per cent a year earlier, according to the latest Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS).

The latest figures show 127,000 people - or 5.9 per cent - of the total working population have not worked in over a year.

The number of people in employment fell by 79,400 or 4.1 per cent in the 12 months to the second quarter of 2010, according to the data.

The latest decline of 7,600 represents the lowest quarterly fall in employment recorded since the first quarter of 2008, the figures show.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the total number of people unemployed increased by 6,300 to 293,600, an increase of 29,000 (+11.0 per cent) in the year. Ireland’s official unemployment rate now stands at 13.6 per cent.

[saoró...]

Originally Posted by nordisk celt83

Feeding the troll and way off topic, but...
True, it's a bit of a disaster; London City Airport is far nicer. I always transited through Amsterdam Schipol, Brussels Zaventem and Frankfurt when travelling home from Luxembourg or on occassions I've travelled to Asia.

Dublin should aspire to be like far superior airports like the ones above in the long-term and can only dream of reaching the standards of airports like Copenhagen Kastrup and Oslo Gardermoen.

Ah here! lol, I was just taking the piss...

[nordisk celt83]

I gathered, but I'm on rant mode. Working from home atm, and it's very boring these days.

[saoró...]

...well considering the tone of this thread, consider yourself lucky to be working!

[saoró...]

Originally Posted by hovis

I'm no finance expert, but I could see that wages in the south were ridiculously high and based on money not actually in Ireland.

The money's gone, and the influx of workers after a rib or two of the celtic tiger have outfluxed!!

I'm sorry, but to me the south's economy is back to square one.

Lets pick up the discussion again so, there is no malicious tone here hovis, so hold you're horse

Not many of us are experts here, yourself and myself included alright, as the above statement is not true in the slightest. Our economy is fucked in relative terms, but is in no way back to square one. Considering its fragility atm, I wont go as far to say this would ever be possible, but the conditions that keep our staple multinationals here are still present... that is IT services and phara companies. Dell upped and left with its manufacturing but, its services center remained and IT jobs are the most available type of employment here atm, and are still being created. Fi-Tek being the latest, with a massive 50 jobs there have been a number of announcements in the past few months. Domestic demand is where our real problem lies, and stems from our crippled (read: the fucked part of our economy) lending system.

Your reference to our standard of living being built on sand is obviously also incorrect as we have just been hit in the balls by our corrupt as fuck banking system and still have this reasonable standard (of course if you have *any* type of job).

Thirdly, you cannot negate the massive(read: epic) improvment in our infrastructure, roads especially, with public transport in Dublin to follow early next year (fun), this will gives us quite a platform to recover on.

Finally, what odlum says is not entirely untrue. Our economy is certainly not grand, but there really is only one disgusting massive problem with it now, nationalised anglo irish bank, the cancer of Ireland. Without this single bank, our projections would be in line, our debt would be SIGNIFICANTLY lower (read: 30bn lower) and markets would look upon us with favour, as would our population who are aware of them. Anglo should have gone to the dogs and its executives to jail, but alas, our government is shite, and made a shite decision, and we must reap the fallout

[hovis]

Originally Posted by saoró...

Lets pick up the discussion again so, there is no malicious tone here hovis, so hold you're horse

Thank you. A discussion instead of a personal attack for being northern. There really isn't any malice in all my comments at all, far from it actually, except maybe those aimed at me personally....

The long and the short of it is: one side's saying everything's rosy, the other side are doom and gloom merchants, so who's telling the truth? I can only go by what I personally see and at the moment I'd tend to take the more sober, conservative and maybe negative view.

Not many of us are experts here, yourself and myself included alright, as the above statement is not true in the slightest. Our economy is fucked in relative terms, but is in no way back to square one. Considering its fragility atm, I wont go as far to say this would ever be possible, but the conditions that keep our staple multinationals here are still present... that is IT services and phara companies. Dell upped and left with its manufacturing but, its services center remained and IT jobs are the most available type of employment here atm, and are still being created. Fi-Tek being the latest, with a massive 50 jobs there have been a number of announcements in the past few months. Domestic demand is where our real problem lies, and stems from our crippled (read: the fucked part of our economy) lending system.

Your reference to our standard of living being built on sand is obviously also incorrect as we have just been hit in the balls by our corrupt as fuck banking system and still have this reasonable standard (of course if you have *any* type of job).

I agree. I know fine well that your economy isn't the only one in the world to be in diffs, I'm not into childish "we're better than you" philosophies. As I said, just because I have a negative outlook about it at the moment doesn't mean I don't want things to improve for everyone.

You've just hit the nail on the head there, in layman's terms, the south hasn't much going for it in areas to improve her economy. She was never blessed with any vast quantities of ores or other natural wealth. That's not me being snidey, that's fact. the south's greatest export has always been her people, that's the only thing the economy has been able to rely on through the years.

So today Ireland has found a good use of the service industry, that's great, but compared to other sectors like engineering, industry etc, it's a little more unsure. That's not Ireland's fault, that's common knowledge, hence my built on sand anology. You make the best with what you've got, that's all.

Thirdly, you cannot negate the massive(read: epic) improvment in our infrastructure, roads especially, with public transport in Dublin to follow early next year (fun), this will gives us quite a platform to recover on.

I don't negate it at all, far from it!!! The only problem I have with what's been done is that the planners seemed stuck on motorways. To me it's been overdone, especially in areas of sparce population. Maybe it would have been better to improve the ordinary roads in the west instead of white elephant motorways, but that's another discussion. I'd still take the motorways over nothing, that's human nature.

Finally, what odlum says is not entirely untrue. Our economy is certainly not grand, but there really is only one disgusting massive problem with it now, nationalised anglo irish bank, the cancer of Ireland. Without this single bank, our projections would be in line, our debt would be SIGNIFICANTLY lower (read: 30bn lower) and markets would look upon us with favour, as would our population who are aware of them. Anglo should have gone to the dogs and its executives to jail, but alas, our government is shite, and made a shite decision, and we must reap the fallout

MKy dad used to work for First Trust up here, and before the merge with TSB, he worked for AIB so keeps an eye on how they're doing too, so again, I'm trying to bring personal experience in here instead of ulster hatred....

All banks, in Ireland and the rest of the world shafted us, some more than others. We're all in the same boat there. Same with corrupt, rubbish govts.....

[gothicform]

key piece of this article ... ireland has been screwed again. my understanding of the article is that this has increased the cost of the debt again...

Citigroup's chief economist Willem Buiter said today's bond auction today was "great" for investors and "horrible" for taxpayers and the Government.

"From a technical point it was highly successful, over five times oversubscribed," he said.

[nordisk celt83]

Saw the interview, he was basically saying the international bond holders can't believe their luck and are pretty much taking the piss out of the Irish taxpayer.

Originally Posted by hovis

Thank you. A discussion instead of a personal attack for being northern.

I kind of take exception to this as it's not the case, but other than that I'm glad our dialogue is over. As I said my perception is based on poster's history on the forum and nothing else, and my op was more in response to Niterider's listing off of everything that's wrong with the country(quite petty in fairness), in response to the UN HDI, than anything else. If you say I'm mistaken in ringfencing into such a category I can olnly take your word for it. So, don't take it personally!!!

[saoró...]

@hovis: While Ireland has no traditional industries other than agriculture, all industries and units of trade are vunerable in times of economic downturn. Our small open nature makes services very suited to us, and we have done well with them, they are an equally valid asset to any heavy industry. Ireland also has very interesting startups, so lets hope someday we will have some interesting industry of our own :P though, dont get me wrong... diversity would be preferable, but services are harldy sand, its a sign of any mature economy.

Can someone please tell me why markets dictate the cost of borrowing in this manner?! If the fucking thing is 5x subscribed why the hell is the yeild so fucking high? Whats to stop the government from issuing lower yeild bonds?! The concept of traders loyalty to the market is bullshit, they have short memories, and if it is in their interest they would buy bonds at 5%! its better than germanys 3% and if its oversubscribed the confidence of repayment is there.... baffles me.