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Supertalls Discussions of projects under construction between 300-599m/1,000-1,999ft tall.
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Old December 5th, 2012, 02:42 AM   #341
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That sound about right then.
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Old December 6th, 2012, 06:33 PM   #342
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Old December 6th, 2012, 09:52 PM   #343
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I'm glad to see they're planting trees in the district. Any idea when this district will be finished and fully functional?
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Old December 6th, 2012, 10:05 PM   #344
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I would say within 12-18 months.
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Old January 21st, 2013, 09:33 PM   #345
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Old January 22nd, 2013, 01:06 AM   #346
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It now starts to look like a real city. I guess this is on my top must-see in China list now.
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Old March 8th, 2013, 03:21 PM   #347
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Wait until it's finished and in the meanwhile go to other cities in China such Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Nanjing and Xi'an.
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Old March 8th, 2013, 06:01 PM   #348
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As a kid I wondered how it be like if a city is build all at once. Never thought it would actually happen. But now especially Dubai and Tianjin showed me that it is possible.
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Old March 8th, 2013, 06:23 PM   #349
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This place looks great! Are there going to be any well world renowned hotels in this area?
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Old March 9th, 2013, 08:45 AM   #350
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Are there going to be pedestrian shopping streets in this district, like Nanjing East in Shanghai? A shopping street will make it more hustle and bustle. Do these tall buildings have sufficient parkades to accommodate the cars that will flow into this district.
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Old March 9th, 2013, 05:36 PM   #351
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According to the CBS show "60 minutes', a lot of these towers have stopped construction and most of them are sitting empty; is that true? Would someone from Tienjin verify please.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 12:15 AM   #352
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Lotus View Post
According to the CBS show "60 minutes', a lot of these towers have stopped construction and most of them are sitting empty; is that true?
Since we have an opportunity to watch the progress right in this thread, the enswer is, of course, no.

This is a problem of many Western journalists. They don't speak or read Chinese, they don't read even relevant English-language sources (like SSC ) and they have zero clue about what's actually happening in China.

However they have to create a sensation. And they do by any means or imagination they have. Then you get outright comical stories about 'Chinese ghost cities' or 'real estate bubble which is about to burst very very very soon'.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 03:44 AM   #353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post

Since we have an opportunity to watch the progress right in this thread, the enswer is, of course, no.

This is a problem of many Western journalists. They don't speak or read Chinese, they don't read even relevant English-language sources (like SSC ) and they have zero clue about what's actually happening in China.

However they have to create a sensation. And they do by any means or imagination they have. Then you get outright comical stories about 'Chinese ghost cities' or 'real estate bubble which is about to burst very very very soon'.
Eh... There's usually some truth. Most of the time it's sensationalized, yes, but there is a lot of misallocation of capital in the country (and it's not just "western" journalists that do it. I've read similar type stories from the Chinese press...).

However, what they always fail to grasp is that the economy is in a state that a rather large number of "white elephants" can be absorbed.

But it's a bit disingenuous to go on like there aren't any bad manipulations in the real estate market...and retail for that matter.

Office space, however, is a pretty good investment.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 04:35 AM   #354
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Eh... There's usually some truth. Most of the time it's sensationalized, yes, but there is a lot of misallocation of capital in the country (and it's not just "western" journalists that do it. I've read similar type stories from the Chinese press...).

However, what they always fail to grasp is that the economy is in a state that a rather large number of "white elephants" can be absorbed.

But it's a bit disingenuous to go on like there aren't any bad manipulations in the real estate market...and retail for that matter.

Office space, however, is a pretty good investment.
And yet they ignore missalocation of capital back at their home countries. As if it makes sense to bail-out bankrupt banks yet ignore the fact that transport infrastructure has been starved of investment for decades now (UK is a rather extreme example of that. US is probably not doing too well there either).

The point is that China's economy fundamentals are strong. Perhaps as strong as they possibly could be in the current global context. The very same countries whose press is identifying 'misallocations' of resources in China are in a much, MUCH more serious danger of economic difficulties if not outright decline. I mean primarily UK and, to a lesser extent, the US.

Therefore it looks a bit suspicious once they blatantly ignore very deep-rooted and fundamental problems of their own countries (or worse, explicitly portray it as a non-issue) yet make a big deal out of something that happens in China that they have no clue and knowledge of and in some cases distort the information to make it look something else from what it actually is.


Just take China's HSR development as an example. Even if it's not a real-estate topic it suits the case rather well. Almost every single article posted by the likes of The Economist, WSJ and many other popular mainstream and 'respectable' Western media outlets (not talking of some niche and professional industry media, that's a different story) were publishing dozens of articles many of which without going much into details, without any exaggeration, amounted to utter and complete nonsense.

Such media tirade has been going on for ages and it has become a 'standard' to post how bad is this and that in China, how dangerous it may be and how unsustainable is everything from A to Z, how bad (and always getting worse and worse) is the situation with the 'human rights' and pretty much everything else.

Even if there is some truth in that such irresponsible and openly biased publishing doesn't improve the credibility of those sources. Repeating the same all over and over again and showing the same 5 year old video broadcasts about some ghost-town somewhere along with a vacant shopping mall and concluding that China's real estate bubble is about to burst is nothing but sham journalism based on phantom 'facts'.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 05:37 AM   #355
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Even if there is some truth in that such irresponsible and openly biased publishing doesn't improve the credibility of those sources. Repeating the same all over and over again and showing the same 5 year old video broadcasts about some ghost-town somewhere along with a vacant shopping mall and concluding that China's real estate bubble is about to burst is nothing but sham journalism based on phantom 'facts'.
Well that reporter wasn't walking through Tianjin from five years ago. She was walking through the current Yujiapu district. And even the local Chinese officials admitted it went on hold. How long construction is suspended will be the story. Could be fairly short, could be long term. We'll find out over time.

There are empty skyscrapers in China. But certainly more full ones than empty ones. As for us westerners, I think we just find it fascinating a country can construct huge buildings so frivously. It's not how are market works.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 07:05 AM   #356
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It's not how are market works.
??

It is exactly how market works.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 07:09 AM   #357
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A number of buildings are on hold or have the appearance of being on hold, but the entire district is far from on hold as a whole. There is no point in opening buildings before the surrounding infrastructure is completed so a lot of topped-out buildings look on hold while surrounding buildings continue to rise. They're currently building parks and a 2nd bridge over the river and it doesn't seem like the schedule has slipped that much, most buildings are going for a mid-2014 opening along with the HSR station.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 07:21 AM   #358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post

And yet they ignore missalocation of capital back at their home countries. As if it makes sense to bail-out bankrupt banks yet ignore the fact that transport infrastructure has been starved of investment for decades now (UK is a rather extreme example of that. US is probably not doing too well there either).

The point is that China's economy fundamentals are strong. Perhaps as strong as they possibly could be in the current global context. The very same countries whose press is identifying 'misallocations' of resources in China are in a much, MUCH more serious danger of economic difficulties if not outright decline. I mean primarily UK and, to a lesser extent, the US.

Therefore it looks a bit suspicious once they blatantly ignore very deep-rooted and fundamental problems of their own countries (or worse, explicitly portray it as a non-issue) yet make a big deal out of something that happens in China that they have no clue and knowledge of and in some cases distort the information to make it look something else from what it actually is.

Just take China's HSR development as an example. Even if it's not a real-estate topic it suits the case rather well. Almost every single article posted by the likes of The Economist, WSJ and many other popular mainstream and 'respectable' Western media outlets (not talking of some niche and professional industry media, that's a different story) were publishing dozens of articles many of which without going much into details, without any exaggeration, amounted to utter and complete nonsense.

Such media tirade has been going on for ages and it has become a 'standard' to post how bad is this and that in China, how dangerous it may be and how unsustainable is everything from A to Z, how bad (and always getting worse and worse) is the situation with the 'human rights' and pretty much everything else.

Even if there is some truth in that such irresponsible and openly biased publishing doesn't improve the credibility of those sources. Repeating the same all over and over again and showing the same 5 year old video broadcasts about some ghost-town somewhere along with a vacant shopping mall and concluding that China's real estate bubble is about to burst is nothing but sham journalism based on phantom 'facts'.
I just think talk like this is over generalizing.

I'm not saying there isn't a particular editorial line being pushed; there sometimes is (all you have to do is speak with foreign correspondents in China - a lot of them don't want to cover half the stories they're made to).

I'm just also pointing out that there are plenty of developments that don't always "add" up. A lot of it is really just growing pains, and some of it is systemic.

I just think healthy debate about these kinds of stories can be enlightening if they have substance.

As much as journalistic hyperbole irritates me, this creeping notion of Chinese infallibility does even more (almost as much as American exceptionalism- which isn't ubiquitous, by the way).

China's good at economic policy and commands respect for it, but they also **** up from time to time. I mean (to borrow from your example), we also thought Wall Street was pretty infallible as well...

I think essentially, weeding out horrible writing from actual critiques is my core issue. Being critical doesn't mean they're out of touch or anti-china. That's really all I meant to say. There have been many a book written about the collapse of the Chinese economy (mostly shit, excuse my French), but that doesn't mean that recent indications of certain issues should be discounted.

*and practically every media story I've ever read about China's HSR has been nothing short of praise and (in our case here in the US) envy. Even with the imperative citing of safety concerns, I've read more scathing articles about the state of our transport than that in China.

Then again, I don't read the WSJ.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 05:36 PM   #359
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The show (60 minutes) missed to show a few things:
1) Chinese has the highest savings rate in the world; in other words, they have cash.
2) The concept of mortgage, borrowing money to buy property or car, is relatively new in China, a great portion of the property market were being bought with full cash or large down payment. At the end of the show, it shows people are still lining up to buy property. If people have money and are still buying, that means there is no bubble.
3) The show missed to mention the Chinese cultural tradition, that is buying property for their relatives. A couple with means will very likely buy a couple of extra units for their parents and definitely one for their son or daughter. They don't mind to let the units sit empty until their relatives need to occupy them.
4) No mention the rate of vacancy for the commercial/office space. I understand that the vacancy rate in Shanghai is around 9% while Los Angels is over 14% and Toronto is around 12%.
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Old March 10th, 2013, 06:45 PM   #360
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phoenixboi08 View Post
I just think talk like this is over generalizing.

I'm not saying there isn't a particular editorial line being pushed; there sometimes is (all you have to do is speak with foreign correspondents in China - a lot of them don't want to cover half the stories they're made to).

I'm just also pointing out that there are plenty of developments that don't always "add" up. A lot of it is rrally just growing pains, and some of it is systemic.

I just think healthy debate about these kinds of stories can be enlightening if they have substance.

As much as journalistic hyperbole irritates me, this creeping notion of Chinese infallibility does even more (almost as much as American exceotionalism - which isn't ubiquitous, by the way).

China's good at economic policy and command respect for it, but they also **** up from time to time. I mean (to borrow from your examole), we also thought Wall Street was pretty infallible as well...

I think essentially, weeding out horrible writing from actual critiques is my core issue. Being critical doesn't mean they're out of touch or anti-china. That's really all I meant to say. There have been many a book written about the collapse of the Chinese economy (mostly shit, excuse my French), but that doesn't mean that recent indications of certain issues should be discounted.

*and practically every media story I've ever read about China's HSR has been nothing short of praise and (in our case here in the US) envy. Even with the imperative citing of safety concerns, I've read more scathing articles about the state of our transport than that in China.

Then again, I don't read the WSJ.
Of course there are exceptions but the general trend in the Western media is the following (ragarding the HSR development). Similar stance is taken regarding real estate or pretty much any other area of the economy:

- China's HSR boom is unsustainable, too expensive for 'ordinary people' (on the other hand they say tickets are too cheap to cover even operational costs... a bit of a contradiction)
- Safety standards are flawed (pointing to the Wenzhou accident for a millionth time in every single article since the accident took place)
- Fixed asset investment is bad and unsustainable
- bla bla bla.

At least this is what most of the articles wold argue for. And I do read pretty much everything on the subject in the UK and American media therefore I'm sure I'm not missing much.

The point is that the overall stance of the popular and respected media outlets is very biased, agenda-based and misinforming. The fact that there are some dangers in the Chinese real estate or other areas does not change that. There are dangers in real estate in pretty much every country in the world (with some exceptions... like Germany perhaps) and especially the US. The problem is that any of such potential dangers in China (where they are far from being the most dangerous compared to US or some other countries where economy is 'driven' by the means of 'quantitative easing' and similar fundamentally unsustainable measures) are completely blown out of proportion.

Many such articles 'argue' that China's real estate 'bubble' is very dangerous and may have consequences much harsher than the past bubbles in the US. Even using common sense and very fundamental logic one can identify that such claims are flawed in principle. This is because China's financial posituion and structure of the financial market as well as banking system and rules of buying property are in a different planet compared to the US or even EU countries. The conventional US style housing bubble is simply impossible in China. Not because some believe that China is somehow 'infallible' but simply because there are factors which make a conventional US bubble physically impossible in China.

There may be certain consequences and indicators in the housing market (and very likely they have been taking place for a while now) but there isn't and won't be a 'bubble' in a conventional (looking from the US and European perspective that is) form.

Last edited by Pansori; March 10th, 2013 at 06:52 PM.
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