Election 2012

Capitol Hill · April 11th, 2012, 02:05 AM

Now that we seem to have our two candidates set, lets have a thread for the upcoming election.

My initial reaction to the presidential candidates is being underwhelmed. I'm not predicting a strong turnout for either side, but whichever party gets more of their base will stand the best chance.

Rogue Linguist · April 11th, 2012, 02:47 AM

Inslee in 2012! McKenna doesn't believe in light rail to the Eastside! Or equality!

bgwah · April 11th, 2012, 05:22 AM

McKenna will probably win. Inslee's best hope will be for a poor Romney performance dragging down Republican turnout, which isn't too unlikely, but I wouldn't count on it. McKenna is a skilled politician. Then again Gregoire somehow managed to win, so who knows. McKenna is a better candidate than Rossi, though.

The Democrats just might be stupid enough to nominate Darcy Burner again and give the Republicans the 1st district. Republicans have a decent chance at taking the State Senate, too, but that's a little harder to predict with redistricting. I haven't looked at the new legislative districts closely enough to determine that yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Democrats hold onto a slim majority, with the DINOs continuing to be in a position to give the Republicans more power.

I'm expecting a decent year for the local GOP. Reagan Dunn seems like kind of an dummie (just my unscientific opinion) so perhaps Bob Ferguson being elected AG will be a bright spot for the Dems. Secretary of State is also open, which is another Democratic opportunity. I think the Republicans have a good candidate, though. Then again they had the perfect candidate for State Treasurer in 2008 and he still lost.

M'sFan · April 11th, 2012, 05:41 AM

Inslee will lose. Which is remarkable, given the demographics of this state.

M'sFan · April 11th, 2012, 05:45 AM

Furthermore, there is a very real chance the Rs will gain the state senate, by virtue of retirements and which districts happen to be up. That will make future budget negotiations with the house all the more interesting.

bgwah · April 11th, 2012, 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by M'sFan

Inslee will lose. Which is remarkable, given the demographics of this state.

Not really. MA, RI, IL, CA, VT, HI, and so on---all states more Democratic than WA---have had Republican Governors more recently than us. What's remarkable is that the Democrats have held onto the Governor's Mansion continuously for at least 32 years.

SJM · April 11th, 2012, 06:27 AM

Which is why we need some change for once

bgwah · April 11th, 2012, 06:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SJM

Which is why we need some change for once

I've always thought that was a silly reason to base a vote on. Though if there were ever a credible third party I may be guilty of the same line of thought.

M'sFan · April 11th, 2012, 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bgwah

Not really. MA, RI, IL, CA, VT, HI, and so on---all states more Democratic than WA---have had Republican Governors more recently than us. What's remarkable is that the Democrats have held onto the Governor's Mansion continuously for at least 32 years.

I do agree to a point, but each election is its own animal- and there does not seem to be a portent of an R tide. Also, while hardly a member of the far-right, I would assert McKenna is more conservative than Schwarzenegger, Chafee, or Gov.Romney, and likely the rest.

bgwah · April 11th, 2012, 07:59 AM

I just think it's bound to happen eventually in any state.

M'sFan · April 11th, 2012, 05:53 PM

^That's a good point- nothing stays the same forever, even a D gov in WA.

Rogue Linguist · April 11th, 2012, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by M'sFan

Inslee will lose. Which is remarkable, given the demographics of this state.

Why will he lose? That sucks. So much for light rail to the Eastside and marriage equality in the Evergreen State.

jessejb · April 11th, 2012, 06:49 PM

Olympia needs a shakeup, but I'm not looking forward to the fiscal mess and regressive social legislations that an (R) governor would bring. Inslee needs to get out there and campaign already. What's he waiting for?

M'sFan · April 11th, 2012, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rogue Linguist

Why will he lose? That sucks. So much for light rail to the Eastside and marriage equality in the Evergreen State.

Inslee has shown himself to be a poor campaigner. McKenna is popular, (even in King County), relatively moderate, and has a great reputation. Polls have him up by 8-10 points already. I work in Oly at the capitol, and everyone is preparing for McKenna to be gov. That's pretty amazing. As for marriage, it's already passed and signed. There's nothing more a governor can do to support or oppose it. It's a ballot issue now, and will move to the courts most likely after that.

mhays · April 11th, 2012, 06:55 PM

I agree. Come on Inslee.

Though I'm not all left. I like the reduced pensions that just passed the legislature.

Growth management, transportation, and environment are the big reasons I'm all D.

LCIII · April 11th, 2012, 06:59 PM

Inslee is a terrible candidate.

Capitol Hill · April 11th, 2012, 07:08 PM

Well in defense of Inslee, has he really begun campaigning yet?

M'sFan · April 11th, 2012, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capitol Hill

Well in defense of Inslee, has he really begun campaigning yet?

Unfortunately for Inslee, no matter how this question is answered, it means he's a poor campaigner... if the answer is "yes", well, that speaks for itself.

If the answer is "no", why the heck hasn't he started? McKenna's busy with a legislative session, can't fundraise, and Inslee could have been pounding the pavement and attempting to build a substantial lead.

alexjonlin · April 12th, 2012, 12:52 AM

http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/d...t?oid=13101430 This was a good article about it from a few weeks ago

Doomgoggles · April 12th, 2012, 01:11 AM

Hmm, here's what I think:

They're both GREAT at their former jobs. I've voted for both of them before. Inslee is definitely the better candidate for transit; not sure about overall growth. He's stated that he's 'necessarily' going to be more conservative than he would be, fiscally, due to the economy. McKenna is the stronger candidate on things from education funding to crime prevention.

However, neither of them has really been in an executive position, and I'm not sure how it would pan out. I tend to vote based on infrastructure first, though...except for the office of the president, where I vote on foreign policy toughness.

April 11th, 2012, 02:05 AM	#1
Capitol Hill Registered User Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,386 Likes (Received): 158	Election 2012 Now that we seem to have our two candidates set, lets have a thread for the upcoming election. My initial reaction to the presidential candidates is being underwhelmed. I'm not predicting a strong turnout for either side, but whichever party gets more of their base will stand the best chance. __________________ After Monday and Tuesday, even the calendar says WTF

April 11th, 2012, 02:47 AM	#2
Rogue Linguist Registered User Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Seattle Posts: 1,672 Likes (Received): 60	Inslee in 2012! McKenna doesn't believe in light rail to the Eastside! Or equality! __________________ Cot-Caught Merged and Proud

April 11th, 2012, 06:49 PM	#13
jessejb Registered User Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Seattle Posts: 2,696 Likes (Received): 105	Olympia needs a shakeup, but I'm not looking forward to the fiscal mess and regressive social legislations that an (R) governor would bring. Inslee needs to get out there and campaign already. What's he waiting for? __________________ Le Tumblr: http://inanevergreenstate.tumblr.com/

April 11th, 2012, 07:08 PM	#17
Capitol Hill Registered User Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 2,386 Likes (Received): 158	Well in defense of Inslee, has he really begun campaigning yet? __________________ After Monday and Tuesday, even the calendar says WTF

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April 11th, 2012, 05:22 AM	#3
bgwah honk!!! Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Kirkland, WA Posts: 1,739 Likes (Received): 76	McKenna will probably win. Inslee's best hope will be for a poor Romney performance dragging down Republican turnout, which isn't too unlikely, but I wouldn't count on it. McKenna is a skilled politician. Then again Gregoire somehow managed to win, so who knows. McKenna is a better candidate than Rossi, though. The Democrats just might be stupid enough to nominate Darcy Burner again and give the Republicans the 1st district. Republicans have a decent chance at taking the State Senate, too, but that's a little harder to predict with redistricting. I haven't looked at the new legislative districts closely enough to determine that yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Democrats hold onto a slim majority, with the DINOs continuing to be in a position to give the Republicans more power. I'm expecting a decent year for the local GOP. Reagan Dunn seems like kind of an dummie (just my unscientific opinion) so perhaps Bob Ferguson being elected AG will be a bright spot for the Dems. Secretary of State is also open, which is another Democratic opportunity. I think the Republicans have a good candidate, though. Then again they had the perfect candidate for State Treasurer in 2008 and he still lost.

April 11th, 2012, 05:41 AM	#4
M'sFan Registered User Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Aberdeen, WA Posts: 370 Likes (Received): 22	Inslee will lose. Which is remarkable, given the demographics of this state.

April 11th, 2012, 05:45 AM	#5
M'sFan Registered User Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Aberdeen, WA Posts: 370 Likes (Received): 22	Furthermore, there is a very real chance the Rs will gain the state senate, by virtue of retirements and which districts happen to be up. That will make future budget negotiations with the house all the more interesting.

April 11th, 2012, 06:27 AM	#7
SJM Registered User Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 1,234 Likes (Received): 3	Which is why we need some change for once

April 11th, 2012, 07:59 AM	#10
bgwah honk!!! Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Kirkland, WA Posts: 1,739 Likes (Received): 76	I just think it's bound to happen eventually in any state.

April 11th, 2012, 05:53 PM	#11
M'sFan Registered User Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Aberdeen, WA Posts: 370 Likes (Received): 22	^That's a good point- nothing stays the same forever, even a D gov in WA.

April 11th, 2012, 06:55 PM	#15
mhays Journeyman Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Seattle Posts: 8,374 Likes (Received): 118	I agree. Come on Inslee. Though I'm not all left. I like the reduced pensions that just passed the legislature. Growth management, transportation, and environment are the big reasons I'm all D.

April 11th, 2012, 06:59 PM	#16
LCIII Registered User Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 2,866 Likes (Received): 60	Inslee is a terrible candidate.

April 12th, 2012, 12:52 AM	#19
alexjonlin Registered User Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,260 Likes (Received): 84	http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/d...t?oid=13101430 This was a good article about it from a few weeks ago

April 12th, 2012, 01:11 AM	#20
Doomgoggles Unregistered non-user Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Seattle/Kitsap Posts: 739 Likes (Received): 39	Hmm, here's what I think: They're both GREAT at their former jobs. I've voted for both of them before. Inslee is definitely the better candidate for transit; not sure about overall growth. He's stated that he's 'necessarily' going to be more conservative than he would be, fiscally, due to the economy. McKenna is the stronger candidate on things from education funding to crime prevention. However, neither of them has really been in an executive position, and I'm not sure how it would pan out. I tend to vote based on infrastructure first, though...except for the office of the president, where I vote on foreign policy toughness.