The Scottish Economy Thread

[Ahhhh]

This, and this...

Originally Posted by AshAshAsh

...are very interesting. What is going on here? Is our economy actually improving, fundamentally, over the long term???

[djmaxliving]

Latest GDP trends

The main findings of the latest figures are:

GDP grew by 1.3 per cent during the second quarter of 2010 (seasonally adjusted) and fell by 1.7 per cent over the year.

In the year to end-June 2010, the Scottish service sector fell by 1.2 per cent, the production sector fell by 3.9 per cent and the construction sector fell by 3.2 per cent.

In the second quarter of 2010, the service sector grew by 0.3 per cent, the production sector grew by 2.5 per cent and the construction sector grew by 10.4 per cent.

UK Figures:

The UK figures show that GDP on a comparable basis (constant basic prices) fell by 1.5 per cent in the year to end-June 2010 and grew by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2010.

Over the year, the UK experienced a 1.0 per cent fall in services, a 3.8 per cent fall in production and a fall of 2.4 per cent in the construction sector.

In the second quarter of 2010, the UK service sector grew by 0.6 per cent, the production sector grew by 1.0 per cent and the construction sector grew by 9.5 per cent.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/St...TrendLatestGDP

[AshAshAsh]

From The BBC

North Ayrshire is the part of Scotland least well placed to recover from government cuts, according to research.

West Dunbartonshire is second worst, having seen its private sector contract between 2003 and 2008.

Areas where the local economy is best placed to bounce back are in the north east, where the offshore oil sector and agriculture have been more buoyant.

The analysis, by Experian, measured the resilience of local economies in different council areas.

The findings give an indicator of the prospects for the economy as public sector spending and employment is cut back sharply, following the announcement of spending cuts by the Chancellor George Osborne.

It's not just over-dependence on government jobs that's cause for concern; it's also the challenge of filling the gap when they go.

And Scotland's businesses are not confident they are yet able to do so.

Up to 100,000 jobs can be expected to disappear with the cutbacks in government spending.

Experian observes the past decade has seen 74,000 public sector jobs created, but only 44,000 private sector - only 38% of the total.

It's possible the retreat of state funding could create conditions for the growth of private - that may have happened in the 1990s - but in areas without a resilient business base, it may take more effort than simply waiting for those market forces to get to work.

The Treasury said nearly 500,000 public sector jobs could be expected to go.

An independent assessment of the Scottish public sector suggested it could expect to lose about 60,000 jobs, and another report for Pricewaterhouse Coopers suggested up to 35,000 more could be lost in private firms dependent on public spending.

The Experian survey measured the mix of companies, down-rating those in sectors that are vulnerable to economic downturn or government cuts, or where marketing data shows high levels of insolvency.

Its formula gave more positive weighting to those areas with companies - in the technology sector, showing they are able to adapt, which pay their bills on time, if they're foreign-owned, with high levels of self-employment and where there is a stronger export orientation.

Having already assessed all of England's local authority areas, the Experian research set it against economies covered by Scotland's 32 local councils.
Continue reading the main story
Business resilience rankings (out of 356 British districts)

Of 356 districts, North Ayrshire ranked 342 and West Dunbartonshire at 340.

The best in Scotland were Aberdeenshire, ranked after 22 English local authority areas, Aberdeen at number 56 and Edinburgh at 62.

According to the consultants, North Ayrshire has a weak mix of companies with high dependency on public sector spending, such as construction firms.

Overlooked areas

They said West Dunbartonshire is ranked poorly partly because it has more businesses struggling to pay their bills, even though it has average business start-up rates.

Even among areas with a lot going for them, Stirling was cited as one area with poor business start-ups.

The consultants' report goes on to forecast that the best sectors for growth in the next five years will be in transport, retail, business services.

It says that even in those areas without high growth businesses in the financial, creative and life science sectors, jobs can still be created in the more overlooked areas of the economy: retail, tourism and hospitality.

Below is a list showing the order that Experian ranked each of the 32 Scottish districts, the number on the right hand side gives their overall ranking within the UK.

TOP SIXTEEN

* Aberdeenshire 22
* Aberdeen City 56
* Edinburgh 62
* Orkney 80
* Stirling 94
* Perth and Kinross 95
* Scottish Borders 107
* Dumfries and Galloway 129
* Shetland 150
* Angus 157
* Highland 159
* Moray 180
* Argyll & Bute 184
* Glasgow 194
* South Ayrshire 216
* East Dunbartonshire 218

BOTTOM SIXTEEN

* Eilean Siar 219
* East Lothian 236
* Midlothian 260
* Fife 265
* South Lanarkshire 270
* West Lothian 273
* East Renfrewshire 286
* East Ayrshire 289
* Renfrewshire 294
* Inverclyde 295
* Dundee 302
* Inverclyde 295
* Dundee 302
* Clackmannanshire 317
* North Lanarkshire 319
* Falkirk 335
* West Dunbartonshire 340
* North Ayrshire 342

[RapidTaco]

Below also shows where Glasgow sits in terms of some of the major UK cities: -

Bristol - 167
Leeds - 187
Glasgow - 194
Manchester - 217
Southampton - 230
Birmingham - 234
Newcastle - 259
Nottingham - 275
Liverpool - 287
Leicester - 302
Wolverhampton - 304
Hull - 320
Middlesborough - 324

[djmaxliving]

Scotland 'avoiding double-dip recession'

Scotland's economy is avoiding a double-dip recession, the Bank of Scotland's chief economist has said.

Donald MacRae said that while growth was "not as positive as hoped for", there had been low growth and not negative growth for three months.

His comments came as November's figures showed the manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate since August.

However, the rise was coupled with a subdued service sector, which recorded falls in orders and employment levels.

According to the Bank of Scotland's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November, there was a strong rise in new export orders for Scottish manufacturers.

The rise was put down to a boost in demand from China and the US.

Factory gate

Across the service sector, business services, travel, tourism and leisure all experienced declines in activity.

The financial services sector was the only one to record a modest rise.

The report also highlighted the rising price of raw materials and found that wages were pushing up costs for private firms.

Companies said they had been able to pass on some of the rises to clients, while manufacturers raised factory gate prices at a marked rate.

Discounting has also remained evident in the service sector.

Mr MacRae said: "This month's robust recovery in manufacturing partially offset the fall in service activity extending the slowdown in the Scottish economy into November.

"Scottish manufacturers saw a welcome strong increase in the volume of new export orders during the month providing evidence of an export led recovery.

"The sector also recorded a solid rise in production, the strongest since August."

He added: "While the latest PMI isn't as positive as hoped for, these results indicate the Scottish economy is avoiding a 'double dip' and experiencing low growth rather than negative growth."

The PMI report, compiled by Markit for Bank of Scotland, is based on data from purchasing executives in about 600 private manufacturing and service sector companies.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11979249

[Sweet Zombie Jesus]

Thank god for that

[djmaxliving]

Nice touch .

Jobs for Glasgow

NFU Mutual is to create 46 jobs at its new purpose-built premises in Glasgow, it was announced today.

The insurance, pensions and investment specialist, which offers a range of insurance and investment products, have plans to increase the number of employees in their Glasgow city centre location to more than 350.

The 46 new jobs will be across a number of areas including customer service, claims and administration. Scottish Enterprise is supporting the company's plans with a Regional Selective Assistance grant of up to £200,000.

Over the past 100 years, NFU Mutual has enjoyed a long association with Glasgow and first moved into shared offices with the National Farmers Union in Glasgow in 1923. From 1975 the company was based in Bath Street and has now moved to Wellington Street as part of its expansion plans.

First Minister Alex Salmond said:

"Scotland has established a reputation for excellence in financial services and NFU Mutual's decision to invest in new premises and to create new jobs highlights their commitment to the city and the local workforce.

"Since 1923, NFU Mutual has made a significant contribution to the local economy and the company's decision to create 46 new posts demonstrates that Scotland has the skills and quality infrastructure to deliver success in financial services.

"The Scottish Government and Scottish Development International continue to do all we can to secure new jobs and investment to Scotland. The company's decision to expand their operations reflects the strength of our financial services industry and I wish the company and its employees continued success."

Donny MacLeod, Manager of NFU Mutual Direct, said:

"The location of the building means we are in the heart of Glasgow's Financial Services District and we hope that our larger, more modern premises will become a centre of excellence which reflects our strong performance and our commitment to strengthening our presence in Scotland. "

Lena Wilson, Chief Executive of Scottish Enterprise, said:

"The decision by NFU Mutual to expand its existing operations in Glasgow is a real testament to the skills and calibre of those working in financial services in Scotland. It clearly shows that despite the challenging economic conditions, Scotland continues to be an attractive location for global companies in this important sector.

"My colleagues in Scottish Development International, in partnership with Scottish Enterprise, will continue to work closely with NFU Mutual to support the company's ambitious plans in Scotland as part of our mission to build a stronger, more globally competitive economy."

NFU Mutual offers a wide range of products, including general insurance, life, pensions, investments and risk management services. NFU Mutual is The National Farmers Union Mutual Insurance Society Limited (No. 111982).


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Rele...10/12/14145615

[djmaxliving]

Scottish food exports pass £1bn mark

Scotland's overseas food sales passed the £1bn mark last year, according to HM Revenue and Customs figures.

Food exports, which were boosted by strong sales of salmon and potatoes, were also helped by the fall in the value of sterling.

Nearly two-thirds of food sales came from fish and shellfish, which were up by 12% in the year.

Fresh salmon was up by 20% to 78,600 tonnes of exported fish, with the USA accounting for nearly 32,000 tonnes.

Whisky continued to dominate the food and drinks export trade.

Export sales by value were up 10% at £3.45bn, according to the HMRC figures, taking total food and drink exports to £4.5bn.

In whisky, the US market grew strongly at 19% to £499m.

But less traditional markets for distillers were also doing well, with India up 46% to £31m and Russia up 61% to £31m, after a sharp fall in whisky trade with that country's recession.

Growing markets

Seed potato exports were strongly up amid 54% growth in value of fruit and vegetable exports overall.

The fastest growth in food export markets was recorded in Poland (up 139% on 2009) and the United Arab Emirates (up by 114%), while Germany was up 29%, the USA up 25%, Canada up 24%, Japan up 22% and France up 15%.

France remained Scotland's top export market in Europe, followed by Ireland and Spain.

Anne MacColl, chief executive of Scottish Development International (SDI), the government's trade promotion agency that extracted the HMRC figures, said the numbers could be explained by hard work and networking.

She said: "The numbers show that traditional export markets such as Europe and the US are proving very attractive to Scottish companies, but we can't underestimate the opportunities further afield in Asia.

"Thanks to the competitive exchange rate, Scottish goods are now up to 40% cheaper than they were two years ago, and Asia has plenty of high net worth individuals who have money in their pockets.

"Our message to Scottish companies is to be bold and broaden your horizons. The opportunities are out there, and SDI can help you achieve your ambitions."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...iness-14125064

[djmaxliving]

Scottish unemployment rate falls

Scottish unemployment fell by 11,000 in the three months to May to 205,000, according to the latest data.

The unemployment rate was 7.6%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), below the UK average of 7.7%.

However, the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in June was 141,300 - an increase of 1,500.

In the UK unemployment fell by 26,000 in the three months to May to 2.45 million.

According to the ONS, employment in Scotland increased by 20,000 over the quarter, and increased by 55,000 over the year to stand at nearly 2.5 million.

The Secretary of State for Scotland, Michael Moore, said: "Since last autumn the Scottish jobless figures have been heading in the right direction and this is encouraging.

"The UK government is continuing to work hard to set the right conditions to put the country on a path to long term sustainable growth.

'We have identified trade as one of the areas that will help us to rebalance the economy."

He added: "For this reason we have created a new Scottish trade group which will support our aim to increase exports from Scotland."

The fall in the unemployment rate in Scotland below the UK as whole has been welcomed by the Scottish government.

First Minister Alex Salmond said: "These are positive figures, with employment in Scotland rising and unemployment falling at seven times the rate as in the rest of the UK, but there can be absolutely no room for complacency.

"We now have lower unemployment, higher employment, and a lower rate of economic inactivity in Scotland than the UK as a whole - and the lowest joblessness rate in Scotland for 18 months, with the eighth consecutive reported fall."

Mr Salmond added: "However, as the increase in the claimant count demonstrates, more needs to be done to support jobs, secure investment and boost economic activity across Scotland - and these figures reinforce the need for a Plan B or flexibility from the UK government in order to strengthen growth and recovery."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...iness-14134696

[Chris99]

Visitor boost for Scotland

12/01/2012

The number of visitors to Scotland has risen by eight per cent in the first nine months of this year according to the latest statistics published today.

The results from 2011 International Passengers Survey and the GB Tourism Survey Quarters 1 - 3 show that overall spend by visitors has also gone up 11 per cent.

The domestic market continues to perform well, showing increases of 10 per cent in visitor numbers and 21 per cent in spend.

Internationally, the number of visitors fell by four per cent but the number of people coming to Scotland from North America rose by 18 per cent.

The release of the statistics coincides with the opening of the new Residence Inn by Marriot in Quartermile in Edinburgh demonstrating confidence in the industry.

Tourism Minister Fergus Ewing said:

"These figures are encouraging and an excellent demonstration of the resilience of Scotland's tourism industry. The eight per cent increase in visitors represents growth in one of our key industry sectors and is great news for the economy.

"The staycation market is continuing to boost visitor numbers and average spend also rising. We will continue to invest in this market and the recently launched Year of Creative Scotland will help generate even more opportunities to do so.

"An 18 per cent increase in visitors from North America is extremely welcome and evidence that this market is continuing to pick-up after a tough time. This is off-set by an overall fall of four per cent in the number of international visitors to Scotland but we have to remember that tough times in the Eurozone will have an impact.

"The Scottish Government will work with VisitScotland to ensure that our tourism industry is in the best possible shape to make the most of the huge opportunities that are coming our way in the next three years.

"We have many major events and milestones to look forward to, including the release this summer of Disney-Pixar's Brave. By highlighting what we have to offer we can encourage even more people to come Scotland in the run-up to the Year of Homecoming, the Ryder Cup and the Commonwealth Games in 2014."

Mike Cantlay Chairman of VisitScotland said:

"VisitScotland's marketing continues to show impressive results with our domestic campaign "Surprise Yourself" tracking at 42 per cent advertising awareness - the highest for a number of years. The campaign has reached more than 16 million people since March 2011 and has brought in some £90m of economic benefit. This has helped to boost the staycation market which is particularly buoyant at the moment and showing real opportunities for growth. It's fantastic to see the North American market showing such a strong recovery but disappointing the Eurozone is still very challenging.

"We are about to enter a once in a lifetime opportunity for tourism - spanning from Year of Creative Scotland 2012 to the end of Homecoming Scotland in 2014. This will be the opportunity for the tourism industry to focus on economic growth by engaging with eight milestones and events coming up over the next few years including the Ryder Cup and Commonwealth Games. It's an exciting time to be in tourism and we expect there will be many opportunities to increase the number of visitors coming to Scotland between now and 2014."

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Rele...12/01/12114444

[Chris99]

News about Scottish population projections:-
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Rele...lation29022012

Scotland 2010 = 5,222,100
Scotland 2035 = 5,755,477

Glasgow City 2010 = 592,820
Glasgow City 2035 = 660,005

Edinburgh City 2010 = 486,120
Edinburgh City 2035 = 611,367

Aberdeen City 2010 = 217,120
Aberdeen City 2035 = 271,705

Dundee City 2010 = 144,290
Dundee City 2035 = 153,697

Here's the full list showing projections for each local authority and NHS Board area for every year up to 2035:-
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files...eas-table1.pdf

[Sweet Zombie Jesus]

Wow! Scotlands population increases by 500,000, but Edinburgh alone goes up 120,000. That means in the next 25 years nearly one in every four people born or moving here will end up in the 'Burgh (putting it simply, I know it's more complicated than that.)

Also is Glasgow only sitting at 592,820? I often forget how small we must seem, we really need those suburbs under our belt.

[Due East]

Originally Posted by Sweet Zombie Jesus

Wow! Scotlands population increases by 500,000, but Edinburgh alone goes up 120,000. That means in the next 25 years nearly one in every four people born or moving here will end up in the 'Burgh (putting it simply, I know it's more complicated than that.)

Also is Glasgow only sitting at 592,820? I often forget how small we must seem, we really need those suburbs under our belt.

Totally agree about the suburbs being included.

I think this is a really cautious estimate for Glasgow. The way the city is being redeveloped i would imagine a higher influx of people living within the city centre core. I would also (hopefully) imagine some high density high-rise housing as the remaining gap sites are filled in over the years to come.

[Ultima]

Originally Posted by Due East

Totally agree about the suburbs being included.

I think this is a really cautious estimate for Glasgow. The way the city is being redeveloped i would imagine a higher influx of people living within the city centre core. I would also (hopefully) imagine some high density high-rise housing as the remaining gap sites are filled in over the years to come.

With a great number of office blocks now being converted to student accommodation, I would also anticipate high rise office blocks in time.

[RapidTaco]

Originally Posted by Sweet Zombie Jesus

Wow! Scotlands population increases by 500,000, but Edinburgh alone goes up 120,000. That means in the next 25 years nearly one in every four people born or moving here will end up in the 'Burgh (putting it simply, I know it's more complicated than that.)

Also is Glasgow only sitting at 592,820? I often forget how small we must seem, we really need those suburbs under our belt.

The lowest Glasgow reached was 575,000 for the 2001 census, it has grown year on year since then. Slowly to begin with but it is picking up pace in recent years. The "real" size of "Glasgow" of course is masked by the council boundary which expanded to include even just the adjoining suburbs would be approx. 1,200,000. With the high optimism in the city and the massive changes due to the Commonwealth Games, Renewables, Engineering and Tourism, we should be in for a decent upswing now.

To be honest, I would question the Edinburgh projections also. Had this been pre-2008 then yes, I could have imagined strong growth in Edinburgh. However, the financial situation there now is quite different with both RBS and BOS shadows of their former states. There is also far far less recruitment taking place in financial services in Edinburgh so I'm really not sure where all of these people will be working, unless we are talking about retirees moving there to enjoy the culture / festivals. I'd probably put Edinburgh's growth on a par with Glasgow's but time shall tell.

Good to see Aberdeen heading in the right direction now too, to reach 271,700 in 25 years is a decent growth.

I'd have hoped for a bit more for Dundee, that may change given the renewed focus on the waterfront.

[Due East]

Originally Posted by RapidTaco

The lowest Glasgow reached was 575,000 for the 2001 census, it has grown year on year since then. Slowly to begin with but it is picking up pace in recent years. The "real" size of "Glasgow" of course is masked by the council boundary which expanded to include even just the adjoining suburbs would be approx. 1,200,000. With the high optimism in the city and the massive changes due to the Commonwealth Games, Renewables, Engineering and Tourism, we should be in for a decent upswing now.

To be honest, I would question the Edinburgh projections also. Had this been pre-2008 then yes, I could have imagined strong growth in Edinburgh. However, the financial situation there now is quite different with both RBS and BOS shadows of their former states. There is also far far less recruitment taking place in financial services in Edinburgh so I'm really not sure where all of these people will be working, unless we are talking about retirees moving there to enjoy the culture / festivals. I'd probably put Edinburgh's growth on a par with Glasgow's but time shall tell.

Good to see Aberdeen heading in the right direction now too, to reach 271,700 in 25 years is a decent growth.

I'd have hoped for a bit more for Dundee, that may change given the renewed focus on the waterfront.

If Edinburgh gets the Green Bank then it may kickstart a whole new sub-sector of financial services - fingers crossed. It does look like a high figure though!

[RapidTaco]

Originally Posted by Due East

If Edinburgh gets the Green Bank then it may kickstart a whole new sub-sector of financial services - fingers crossed. It does look like a high figure though!

Indeed, really hoping Edinburgh gets the Green Bank. Rumour has it that if it does go to Ed then although the Bank itself will have the H/Q there, many other functions are likely to be placed at the other end of the M8, hence Glasgow City Council's openly loudish support for Edinburgh winning the bid. We shall see...

[Chris99]

Finances 'stronger than UK'
07/03/2012

Scotland continues to be in a stronger budget position than the UK as a whole according to new figures.

Government and Expenditure Revenue Scotland 2010-11 (GERS), published today by the Chief Statistician, shows that, including a geographical share of UK North Sea oil and gas revenues, Scotland contributed 9.6 per cent of UK public sector revenue and received 9.3 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure, including a per capita share of UK debt interest payments. Scotland’s population is 8.4 per cent of the UK total.

Including a geographical share of North Sea revenues, Scotland’s estimated current budget balance in 2010-11, which is primarily day to day expenditure, was a deficit of £6.4 billion, or 4.4 per cent of GDP - stronger than the UK-wide deficit of £97.8 billion, or 6.6 per cent of GDP for the same year, which includes 100 per cent of North Sea revenues.

In considering the overall net fiscal balance for Scotland - which includes infrastructure investment to yield long term benefits - Scotland was again in a stronger position than the UK: a deficit of 7.4 per cent of GDP, compared to 9.2 per cent for the UK as a whole.

Commenting on the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2010-11, Finance Secretary John Swinney said:

“The official figures show that Scotland continues to contribute more to the UK Treasury than we receive in public spending.

“In 2010/11, Scotland generated 9.6 per cent of UK revenues with 8.4 per cent of the population.

“Looking at both sides of the balance sheet, over the five-year period from 2006/7 to 2010/11, Scotland was in a stronger financial position relative to the UK as a whole by a total of £8.6 billion – over £1,600 for every man, woman and child in Scotland, or over £3,600 per household. This underlines the opportunities of independence and financial responsibility.

“Scotland’s oil and gas resources - a trillion pound asset base - are worth more than 10 times Scotland’s share of a UK debt built up by successive Westminster governments.

“And we know that North Sea revenues remain substantial, with more than half the value still to be extracted. This year the North Sea is forecast to generate £11.1 billion in tax revenue – compared to £8.8 billion in the 2010-11 GERS figures published today.

“The independence referendum in Autumn 2014 will be an opportunity to ensure that the key economic decisions are taken in Scotland for Scotland, and that we can boost economic growth and invest the proceeds in protecting our public services.

"With responsibility for our own finances and our own vast natural resources, we will be able to make choices in our own best interests. With independence, we would control the fiscal levers we need to suit our own economic circumstances, and maximise Scotland's potential to secure new investment and jobs.

"The referendum will be a chance for Scotland to choose a new, better path. In the meantime, we are doing all we can with the powers we currently have to boost the economy and support jobs - and to get the economy moving again. We need the Chancellor to follow our 'Plan MacB' approach and use the upcoming Budget to increase capital investment, enhance economic security, and ensure that businesses have access to finance to create the conditions needed for recovery.”

Related information
Government and Expenditure Revenue Scotland 2010-11
Over the period 2006-07 to 2010-11 as a whole Scotland’s net fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP, including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue, has on average been lower than the equivalent UK figure. When expressed in cash terms, this relative difference is equivalent to £8.6 billion over the five-year period.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Rele...mment-07032012

[JohnnyFive]

Originally Posted by Chris99

Finances 'stronger than UK'
07/03/2012

Scotland continues to be in a stronger budget position than the UK as a whole according to new figures.

Sorry Chris, I never noticed you posted this here and posted a similiar thing on the politics thread.

[M_Riaz]