Questions about Iraq

[sheytanElKebir]

Originally Posted by MKTJ

Don't forget that Allawi's party has many Turkmen personalities, so it's not 100% Arab party.

I wrote the term "arab parts" (and in quote marks) in answers to "koobideh" use of the term! (and you did the same!).

[sheytanElKebir]

Originally Posted by elusive

good summary, these effects were mainly due to the opening up of iraq's economy to the world and lack of sanctions...

and removal of dictatorship... freedom of travel, no army conscription, freedom to read anything etc... a massive boost, that completely changed people's lives.

also, one change from saddam's time, is that previously the money would be held by central government and used to fund projects directly. whereas now most of the national budget is paid out in salaries / pensions / social-security, This has positive impact on people's consumer spending... and negative repercussions on the quality of services that the government can provide (since all the money is with the people, but the people don't want to spend it on paying "international price" for electricity or cleaning the street in front of their house or paying to have rubbish removed...

the adjustment from "state controled" mentality to "pay for what you get" mentality will take some time.. but eventually Iraq should be better off.

[kurd123]

Originally Posted by sheytanElKebir

KRG production is 20k barrels not 40-100k (about 0.67% of national production)
as for the 500k from kirkuk (if we take your 50/50 kurd/non kurd split) would make 8.5% "kurdish" percentage from kirkuk production and 8.5% "arab+turkmen" share of kirkuk.

using that calculation the KRG production + 50% of kirkuk production would be approx 10%-11% of Iraq's gross production.

Now kirkuk is a 80 year old "declining" field. Whereas Iraq's southern fields are all new and being ramped up now. In 7 years time when production reaches 7M barrels / day, kirkuk field would be (optimistically) around 8% of national production.... 50% of which (KRGs share shall we say) is just 4%. (if KRG increases oil production from 0.02M to 0.4M, then that adds another 5%)... declining share from 11% to 9%.

KRG receives 17% of Iraq's budget, and pockets its own tolls and taxes on top (whereas other provinces send it to central budget... so KRG gets a % of import duties coming to basra, but basra doesn't get anything from tolls collected by KRG).



no offence meant in any way, just demonstrating one of the reasons why KRG is not so keen on "independence" right now.

I believe its at 100k as of 2009 and planned to 200k then 1 million barrel by 2012 not to mention the gas deals signed by the KRG with Europe as Kurdistan has quite a bit of gas.

region, Ashti Hawrami, announced on Thursday that his ministry seeks to increase the daily oil production in the region to 3-4 million barrels in the coming four years, noting that revenues will increase during this period to $25 billion.

“The region has 45 billion barrels of oil and 200 trillion cubic meters of natural gas,” Hawrami said at a press conference n Arbil, attended by Aswat al-Iraq news agency, noting that the ministry has prepared a strategy to increase the oil and gas production.

http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=13644

No body really knows kirkuks real population ethnic break down, we'll have to wait for the census assuming that there wont be any cheating.

[sheytanElKebir]

I don't know what to say about ashti (same with shahristani!)...

but I'd rather listen to the international oil companies words than those two liars...

http://www.dno.no/Press--Media/Press...-in-June-2010/

[kurd123]

Originally Posted by sheytanElKebir

I don't know what to say about ashti (same with shahristani!)...

but I'd rather listen to the international oil companies words than those two liars...

http://www.dno.no/Press--Media/Press...-in-June-2010/

I doubt DNO i the only company operation in kurdistan there are a few other companies also, as far as I know from the KRG website in june 2009 it was 100k barrels per day.

http://www.krg.org/articles/detail.a...0100&anr=29333

[sheytanElKebir]

yaba. I work with iraqi oil ministry. i don't think this production is happening in secret?

if you talk about taq taq.. its not in operation http://www.ttopco.com/ and is only 40k in addition to DNO's 15k. The field has not even been developed yet (there's no permanent rigs and pumps only a "temporary" EFP in place)... so it can't produce oil continously like a "developed" field.

[kurd123]

Originally Posted by sheytanElKebir

yaba. I work with iraqi oil ministry. i don't think this production is happening in secret?

if you talk about taq taq.. its not in operation http://www.ttopco.com/ and is only 40k in addition to DNO's 15k.

Im just telling you what I get from the website

[sheytanElKebir]

one word, get the info from the production companies the government source is using weasel words to create ambiguity... there is simply no 100k barrel/day capacity in KRG today... and potential "peak" is in the 400k/day developed over the next few years, if they try to produce 1M barrels per day, they will deplete the reservoirs too quickly and will damage the oil with water seepage and it will result in worsened ASSAY and more difficult extraction.

[MKTJ]

Originally Posted by sheytanElKebir

I wrote the term "arab parts" (and in quote marks) in answers to "koobideh" use of the term! (and you did the same!).

Oh OK, I guess I didn't notice it.

[midotoria]

what a bout this project?
http://bonah.org/news.php?extend.546

[BigDreamer]

we have a thread for it here: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1089141

Though not much news.. and we can't find credible sources either

[sheytanElKebir]

its got SCAM written across its forehead...

I wonder how they intend to buy off all that privately owned property, knock it all down and then build a low rise development that will never pay for itself (since taking into account the price they paid for all the real estate in the first place is incredibly high...).

so the only way such old areas can be redeveloped is if high rise developments and multi-storey malls are built... no other way is economical or possible in a democracy... I suppose saddam and khairalla tulfah could have done it, but I don't think we'll be engaging in those kind of tactics in the future (I hope).

[ardamir]

What are your thoughts on the official end of american combat operations in Iraq?

[BigDreamer]

I don't live in Iraq, so I don't know how the 'average' Iraqi person feels, but I personally think it's a very important and positive milestone. :-)

There are still 50,000 American troops left, and that's is a big number (when compared to Afghanistan, which is geographically a significantly larger country than Iraq). So security wise, I don't believe that the situation could deteriorate to levels seen in 2006/2007.

The Iraqi Security Forces have demonstrated on multiple occasions that they are far more competent than they were before. But the fact they still haven't formed a government is a big concern for everyone.

[sheytanElKebir]

Originally Posted by ardamir

What are your thoughts on the official end of american combat operations in Iraq?

Iraq does not have a combat capable air force, air defence or navy. therefore the US forces will stay in Iraq until 2020 at the very least when Iraq's military can take over the above roles.

There's no need for US ground forces now although Iraq's conventional ground forces will only complete their armament program by 2015 (the 2012-2015 period will see a 3 year perios where Iraq has some small vulnerability in armour and artillery).

I can't speak for anyone but myself, but in my view the US military is the power that keeps iraq's new democracy development on track AS WELL as stop neighbouring countries from trying their luck.

I personally wish that Iraq can rely on the US military for a longer period because we really should spend our money on building the country and its economy rather than burning the money on a useless military.

[Partiya_Rast]

Isn't it better not to rely on an oil-dominated economy? I find it quite depressive not to see the Arab parts of Iraq grow (like in Kurdistan) with that amount of oil being sold daily. I know there is widespread corruption on the Kurdish side as well, but the capitalist mechanism has actually gained foothold.

[sheytanElKebir]

Originally Posted by Partiya_Rast

Isn't it better not to rely on an oil-dominated economy? I find it quite depressive not to see the Arab parts of Iraq grow (like in Kurdistan) with that amount of oil being sold daily. I know there is widespread corruption on the Kurdish side as well, but the capitalist mechanism has actually gained foothold.

kurdistan is doing better than the arab parts partly because it gets a disproportionate amount of money.

KRG collects all tolls and does not pay it to baghdad. Whereas all the tolls and taxes collected (e.g. from port of basra) are shared with kurdistan.

KRG also has a 17% of budget even though the 3 provinces have 13% of population.

On top of that, KRG shares in the "rest of Iraq's" budget for big projects like power and fuel supply and ministerial budgets... (the 17% is only their own "internal" budget)... so in effect 13% of the population end up receiving close to 22-25% of the total budget...

adding those two together alone makes for an average "share of income" about 30%-35% higher for kurds than arabs.

of course on top of that there's the fact that kurdistan is safer and international companies are investing there at the moment in lieu of the rest of Iraq (though this is changing now, finally).

and finally, the "low level" corruption in kurdistan is lower than the rest of iraq, and kurdistan, being safe, is also benefiting from capital inflows by kurds from abroad whereas the rest of iraq suffers from lots of low level corruption and capital flight (Iraq is really really screwed).

As for "capitalism" in kurdistan. I would say apart from the danger/terrorism, Iraq is much less dictatorial than KRG. No business can work in kurdistan without a "kurdish" licence (which means one of the kurdish "chiefs" participation). so for example TELCOs that have an "iraqi" licence can't operate in kurdistan (e.g. zain - at least until last year?). I remember in 2005 or so, in erbil I couldn't call sulaymania yet from basra, or diwania, or samara i could call anywhere in Iraq and my simcard worked everywhere... just one poignant example of the "less than free market" nature of KRG (at that time at least).



My only surprise is that the rest of Iraq hasn't simply cut up kirkuk in half (half for Iraq and half for kurdistan) and told kak barzani that Iraq is declaring independence from kurdistan. but that would only add 7% to the Iraqi budget... so maybe its not worth it?

[Partiya_Rast]

Originally Posted by sheytanElKebir

kurdistan is doing better than the arab parts partly because it gets a disproportionate amount of money.

Does it? It actually does not get a dime from the oil money that Baghdad receives. Even the money collected from the recently found wells in Kurdistan ,which have been set up with KRG's budget, comes into the hands of Shahristanis ministry.

KRG collects all tolls and does not pay it to baghdad. Whereas all the tolls and taxes collected (e.g. from port of basra) are shared with kurdistan.

This is not entirely true. The 17% portion is taken from a different source of allocated income. Also, non-Kurdistani Iraqis settling in Kurdistan do get benefits from the KRG unlike vice versa.

KRG also has a 17% of budget even though the 3 provinces have 13% of population.

I doubt that outdated number (13%) very much. The KRG has a lot of disadvantages compared to the rest of Iraq. For instance the KRG population/area ratio (density) is much more negative compared to non-KRG Iraq which means much more is being spent on infrastructure per capita in the KRG-territories. And the Kurdish area is mountainious and rugged, whereas Arab Iraq has the advantage that the population is settled near the rivers. Also, the KRG spends the money on a larger area than the 3 provinces (with Baghdads knowledge).

On top of that, KRG shares in the "rest of Iraq's" budget for big projects like power and fuel supply and ministerial budgets... (the 17% is only their own "internal" budget)... so in effect 13% of the population end up receiving close to 22-25% of the total budget...

Again, inaccurate numbers (pop. figures date from decades ago). If what you say is right, the non-KRG inhabitants (around 78-80%) receive 99% of the oil income of Iraq. Even if so, I do not believe this would be the binding factor of the income contrast.

of course on top of that there's the fact that kurdistan is safer and international companies are investing there at the moment in lieu of the rest of Iraq (though this is changing now, finally).

and finally, the "low level" corruption in kurdistan is lower than the rest of iraq, and kurdistan, being safe, is also benefiting from capital inflows by kurds from abroad whereas the rest of iraq suffers from lots of low level corruption and capital flight (Iraq is really really screwed).

I think these points make much more sense than the few dollars made at border points. Security is the most important key in building a stable and working economy, attracting foreign companies and recovering the brain drain (from which Arab Iraq is still suffering). Red tape is also much more prevalent and severe in Arab Iraq than in Kurdistan.

As for "capitalism" in kurdistan. I would say apart from the danger/terrorism, Iraq is much less dictatorial than KRG. No business can work in kurdistan without a "kurdish" licence (which means one of the kurdish "chiefs" participation). so for example TELCOs that have an "iraqi" licence can't operate in kurdistan (e.g. zain - at least until last year?). I remember in 2005 or so, in erbil I couldn't call sulaymania yet from basra, or diwania, or samara i could call anywhere in Iraq and my simcard worked everywhere... just one poignant example of the "less than free market" nature of KRG (at that time at least).

Agree on KRG's nature on doing business. However, nowadays there are much more telecommunication providers in Kurdistan than those two. Internet providers are popping up, there is competition now in a lot of sectors. Besides, you could have flown from Erbil to Sulaimani in 2005, whereas you could not from Baghdad to Basra (at the time).

My only surprise is that the rest of Iraq hasn't simply cut up kirkuk in half (half for Iraq and half for kurdistan) and told kak barzani that Iraq is declaring independence from kurdistan. but that would only add 7% to the Iraqi budget... so maybe its not worth it?

Do you really think Kirkuk is of that importance to the Kurdish economy, after not having benefited from its oil (while Baghdad had/has since 2003) and experienced already such an economic boom? The pros and cons of Iraqi Kurdish independence are not so different for both sides, after all it is an approx. 500,000 non-KRG inhabitants that have taken residence in the KRG since 2003. Not vice versa.

Yes there are a lots of points I agree with, but it's not as easy and simple as you picture it. Take care and salaam

[sheytanElKebir]

well partiya-rast. what can I say... de-nile is not just a river in africa. Since you're so completely oblivious to the actual facts and completely deny the economic split in Iraq there's really very little I can do.

It seems the KRG supporters believe 100% what the masta says, and really never question what their spokesmen and media tell them. So until you acquire the will to look for the truth no matter what public statements are made by "my gang" "your gang" then you simply won't be able to debate, as its just a copy-paste of KRG propaganda.

needless to say that pretty much every line of defence you wrote about the KRG above is nonsense. If you wish I can break it down to you, do let me know if you are.

PS. just in case you accuse me of being an "arab apologist" or "arab propagandist" do have a read through my comments about the lies told by the "baghdad government" all over the threads here. so just because I take to account the KRG government and the "media" on some of the more outrageous claims they make, I do exactly the same about Baghdad... (and I hope you do so too!)

[kurd123]

Originally Posted by sheytanElKebir

well partiya-rast. what can I say... de-nile is not just a river in africa. Since you're so completely oblivious to the actual facts and completely deny the economic split in Iraq there's really very little I can do.

It seems the KRG supporters believe 100% what the masta says, and really never question what their spokesmen and media tell them. So until you acquire the will to look for the truth no matter what public statements are made by "my gang" "your gang" then you simply won't be able to debate, as its just a copy-paste of KRG propaganda.

needless to say that pretty much every line of defence you wrote about the KRG above is nonsense. If you wish I can break it down to you, do let me know if you are.

PS. just in case you accuse me of being an "arab apologist" or "arab propagandist" do have a read through my comments about the lies told by the "baghdad government" all over the threads here. so just because I take to account the KRG government and the "media" on some of the more outrageous claims they make, I do exactly the same about Baghdad... (and I hope you do so too!)

I was expecting you to understand it, or possibly you do but don't show it... we both know NO major oil company in the world is willing to put aside the rest of Iraq and possibly other Arab states and get into KRG deals, and so the KRG has to give out better prices then the central government to get any deals at all, and if you didn't know (Do some careful searching into who the shareholders of the companies investing in Kurdistan are) and you'll see that the "contact" also comes with lobbying in the USA as as well as economic/political advice. does KRG have flaws and corruption? Of course it does and every government does, BUT they still manage to help the public and provide security.

And lets not kid our self we all know what the Sunni politicians think of Kurdistan. Lets not forget what maliki did in 2008, and when the next Saddam will take over Iraq, there is no trust between any of the Iraq groups and rightfully, everyone should have the right to prepare for the worst.