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Old April 16th, 2017, 04:42 PM   #3441
Kpc21
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It's not a place to make an OT about Brexit, but I think, it would be very difficult for the British economy withou foreign employees.

One thing are the populist voices and the hatred against Poles working in the UK, but a different thing is the real politics, which takes into account what the country really needs, the populism has nothing to do with.

But anything is possible.

My assumption was the UK staying closely related with the EU, which means that if it is possible to live cross-border now (despite all the border checks and controls because of the British schengenlessness), it will be the same after the Brexit.
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Old April 16th, 2017, 07:29 PM   #3442
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pimlico30 View Post

Arrival half an hour before departure? Security and passport checks, luggage and personal belongings through the X-ray scanners - and twice the number than, say, a Boeing 747. It all takes a little longer than simply having your ticket checked!
And as these things are all completely superfluous they can be abolished, saving everyone 30 minutes, and saving some money too. How is that not superior to investing billions in more direct route from Calais to Paris?

Compare the Eurostar with the train from Helsinki to st. Petersburg. That train crosses an external EU/Schengen border, to a country that needs visa from most people. Yet immigration formalities are done on board.
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Old April 16th, 2017, 07:48 PM   #3443
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The new Przemyśl (Poland) - Lviv - Kyiv train too. All the formalities on the board. Sometimes the passengers must wait some time after the arrival, because... those formalities are not finished yet. But doing them on the board is not a problem.

And it's not only an external Schengen border, but even an external EU border.
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Old April 16th, 2017, 10:38 PM   #3444
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Unless UK changed its asylum laws, which give substantial more legal standing for applicants that are physically present within UK borders, those onboard checks are a no-go, unless St. Pancras had a full-fledged "pre-border" area like international airports, legally.
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Old April 16th, 2017, 10:48 PM   #3445
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No, what makes the difference is that countries agree that a person claiming asylum in a country has to do so in the first safe country he reaches. If caught on a vehicle that obviously comes from such a safe country, he is repatriated immediately by the first train/ship/bus departing in the opposite direction. That is what was common practice for example on the Czech/German border prior to Schengen. All legal agreements to act so are in place, it would just take a greater degree of organization by UK border police and more mobility, but they apparently prefer to sit comfortably in railway offices rather than patrol on the trains.
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Old April 17th, 2017, 01:31 AM   #3446
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Does it work in the EU now so, as it should? I cannot see it.
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Old April 17th, 2017, 02:52 PM   #3447
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 00Zy99 View Post
I think that they might be talking about the fact that HS1 swings out around through Ebbsfleet rather than coming straight up from the south, and the plan to build a cut-off that bypasses Lille entirely. If those two "issues" were rectified, Eurostar would likely have a travel time less than two hours. That would be enough to UTTERLY dominate the market (+95%), and transform things into a commuter system (two hours generally being regarded as the limit of travel time for commuters outside of Japan).
The French had such a plan with the LGV Picardie, but then it was scrapped with the 2009 review of their investment plans..
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Old April 17th, 2017, 06:59 PM   #3448
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And rightfully so IMHO. High speed rail is not supposed to sneak in each and every corner of the country. Even the existing network becomes difficult to support financially. Some real missing links put aside, the expansion of HST network should now be stopped, and focus put back on the classical network.
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Old April 18th, 2017, 12:30 AM   #3449
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btrs View Post
The French had such a plan with the LGV Picardie, but then it was scrapped with the 2009 review of their investment plans..
How much time would LGV Picardie have saved?
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Old April 19th, 2017, 01:18 PM   #3450
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Reputedly it would save 15-20 minutes, enough to get the London - Paris time down to under 2 hours.

When Eurostar started they were doing passport checks on the train. I can recall being checked 20 years ago. There was even a holding cell on the trains to put people without the right documentation into. Things have gone backwards.
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Old April 19th, 2017, 07:36 PM   #3451
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The main supporters for that line were using the faster journey from Paris to London as a prétexte but their real motive was merely to put a new HSL station on the territory of Amiens.
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Old April 19th, 2017, 10:12 PM   #3452
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I would think that the Amiens argument would BOOST matters.

Had the journey time been below 2 hours, it would have been utterly transformative-people would have been commuting back-and-forth on a daily basis. Going by how people commute by air in the US (a lot of the people on Flight 1549 were regular commuters), demand would have been immense.
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Old April 20th, 2017, 01:18 AM   #3453
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You cannot justify the existence of à high speed line with just 2 or 3 trains each way per day in the morning and afternoon.
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Old April 20th, 2017, 07:37 AM   #3454
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I would think that with sub-2 hour journeys there would be London-Paris trains running every 15-20 minutes.
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Old April 20th, 2017, 08:38 AM   #3455
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That would mean multiplying the current traffic by 3 or 4... For just a 20 to 30 min accélération. Realistic ? What is the market share of E* on the London - Paris line today ? And what effect should be expected from Brexit ?
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Old April 20th, 2017, 12:05 PM   #3456
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Share of market between train and airplane

Here is a lot of data done in December on the percentage of HST and aircraft.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gusiluz View Post
I have just finished this list, which aims to increase and update.

The UIC data (80%) refers to the mean HST that take less than 150 minutes.
The figure for China is the total of CRH trains compared to domestic flights.

I do not have data from Korea (I only have 2005, just start the HS) and Taiwan; You can also put others that are significant, even if they are not from HS, as the last of the graph, so we thank the collaboration with source. Thank you!




It is interesting to compare 35% of the train on the Rome-Milan route in 2004 (with a journey of 238 minutes) with the current 73%, thanks to 170 minutes (little more than an hour of cut, 33%) and to NTV competition.

To make it clearer, I also put them sorted by the average speed:


And by the distance:
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Old April 20th, 2017, 01:18 PM   #3457
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Do I understand well from the data above that rail already has 80% market share on Paris London ? In that case multiplying by 3 or 4 looks quite ambitious.
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Old April 20th, 2017, 02:22 PM   #3458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kpc21 View Post
Does it work in the EU now so, as it should? I cannot see it.


Well, as everybody should know, it doesn't. So-called labor migrants are put in a bus or train, but then every single check stops. These people, especially from North-Africa, are still amongst us. And refugees, well, we see what happens all over Europe. No background checks or anything, extremists walk free. A shame.
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Old April 20th, 2017, 09:05 PM   #3459
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarcVD View Post
Do I understand well from the data above that rail already has 80% market share on Paris London ? In that case multiplying by 3 or 4 looks quite ambitious.
That's assuming that only the current market exists. A trip below two hours would expand the Paris-London market.

Two hours is about the limit of what people are willing to spend commuting. That's one big new market opening up right there.

Then you are going to have many more day-trippers. Imagine somebody living in Camden and going out for dinner on the Champs-Elysees (assuming tickets are affordable).

And then there are school trips being possible.

In short, the market would massively expand if a direct downtown-downtown trip below two hours existed.
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Old April 20th, 2017, 11:58 PM   #3460
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I think that relaxing the security theatre alone (which takes at least 30 minutes nowadays) would help in making Eurostar even more attractive than it however is. However, under the current climate (Brexit, security threats) I don't think that is likely to happen anytime soon.
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