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Old February 6th, 2009, 03:55 PM   #421
gramercy
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I think the infrastructure should/will remain in the hands of the individual states.

Freight traffic should/will be completely privatized. There will probably be new companies incorporating rail and off-rail freight traffic, making better use of both.

Inter-european passanger traffic will be competitive, but im not so sure that it will be totally privatized. Nonetheless, plenty of private operators will appear.


I think in the long-run the EU will fund inter-european corridors, just like the EU funds inter-european highways today; and local rail lines will be dealt with the way the state decides.


Also, inter-city traffic (inside states) and euro-night services should also become pretty competitive.


The only thing I'm not convinced about, is commuter rail lines, where you have to have hourly, or even quar hourly service and people usually have season tickets. I dont know how you can introduce competition here. Except for maybe contracting the services in 2-3-4 year long terms and every 2-3-4 years there's an auction-like competition.
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Old February 6th, 2009, 04:02 PM   #422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by serdar samanlı View Post
Liberalization? During the global economical crisis?
it has been -several- years in the making, decided long ago
besides, competition never killed anyone

this should also speed up the construction of new lines, and probably rolling-stock manufacturers will get plenty of new orders;*which should stimulate the economy, much needed
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Old February 6th, 2009, 04:05 PM   #423
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I agree, it will bring a new dynamic to the european rail industry!
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Old February 6th, 2009, 04:38 PM   #424
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I don't think too much will happen right away, the national railway companies will not start to compete with each other after years of cooperation. And new players on the market will have big trouble creating services that are actually interesting (high frequency between bigger cities). The advantage that the national railways already have is so big that it will be very hard for competitors.

But it could mean that we will see better international regional services in regions next to the border. A service that now stop before the border can then be easily extended over the border without having to cooperate with a railway company in the neighboring country.

Other then that we could see some daily services between big cities, just one or two trains a day. Nothing that can really compete with good services like the Eurostar or Thalys for example.

In Eastern Europe this might be a bit different, there I can see lots of competition straight away. Looking the liberalization of rail freight traffic in countries like Romania it's going to be hectic. In Western Europe it will only become hectic if the big national railways start to compete with each other, but that won't happen straight away in 2010.

I only hope that the SBB will take over the Switserland - Milano route from the completely failing Cisalpino. And Trenitalia won't be able to do same the other way around because the Swiss tracks won't be liberalized right away. Also there could be Swiss national services from Geneve and Lausanne to Ticino via Italy now.
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Old February 6th, 2009, 08:22 PM   #425
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I expect competing rivals only on high speed lines. These are the most profitable rail lines. There will be competition right from the start in France when Air France attempts to gain back its market share with its own fleet of high speed trains on inner-France connections. Other companies will follow. The HSLs between Amsterdam, London, Marseilles and Köln are certainly the first choice for emerging competitors to run new services.
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Old February 6th, 2009, 08:26 PM   #426
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I think it's good for cities in the border-regions. I hope for my region (East-Netherlands), that Deutsche Bahn take over sum lines from Dutch railcompanies like NS (Dutch Railways), Connexxion and Syntus.
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Old February 6th, 2009, 09:13 PM   #427
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That won't happen because they can only operate international trains services from 2010. The can only extend it's Regional service from Emmerich to Arnhem for example but won't be able to pick up people for Arnhem in Zevenaar.
Quote:
Originally Posted by flierfy View Post
I expect competing rivals only on high speed lines. These are the most profitable rail lines. There will be competition right from the start in France when Air France attempts to gain back its market share with its own fleet of high speed trains on inner-France connections. Other companies will follow. The HSLs between Amsterdam, London, Marseilles and Köln are certainly the first choice for emerging competitors to run new services.
Today 03:38 PM
Too bad the HSL in Holland won't be open for competition for quite some time, even with the new EU regulations.
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Old February 8th, 2009, 01:52 AM   #428
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DB will eat up national railways. Smaller countries will lose their railway pride.

State owned and privately owned companies - a juxtaposition that will be interesting to watch.

Cheaper fares on HS lines thanks to increased competition.

Nightmare to work out access to lines and have a centralised timetable database for passengers.

In summary: Pros and Cons.
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Old February 8th, 2009, 10:42 AM   #429
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gramercy View Post
What do YOU expect from the coming (2010) liberalization of the european railroad market?

For over a century, european railroads had little more in common than standard gauge. Then along comes the EU and from 2010 everything goes.

What do you think the pros and cons of this will be? Are you afraid of losing your 'national' railroad company? Are you afraid of privatization or do you expect a boom similar to what happend in the aviation market?
Will eastern-european nations rapidly gain new rolling stock at the cost of losing their state-owned companies?

Will governments continue to pick up the cost of buildin the infrastructure? Who will look over the shoulders of giant corporations and keep competition going on?

Is it even possible to create real competition on commuting / 's-bahn' / services, or only in long-distance?

Will this speed up the construction of high-speed lines everywhere, including eastern-europe? What about ETCS?


What's gonna happen?
For Germany I see no big difference to today's situation.

But there can be another scenario: Interesting will be how Russian Railways RŽD will behave, they want to take over a part of DB. If they will be successfull in that, DB would be their door to the EU market. Then we shall have a new situation because DB and RŽD together would be really big players.
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Old February 8th, 2009, 02:10 PM   #430
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Already in Belgium, there are independent freight operators using their own material on tracks. B-Cargo, Trainsport, DLC (Crossrail), Rail4 Chem(BASF) SNCF Fręt, ERS, CFL Cargo and dutch ACTS.

Ex. of locos:
DLC (oldest with own loco)

Rail4 Chem

Trainsport
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Old February 8th, 2009, 06:23 PM   #431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoKo65 View Post
But there can be another scenario: Interesting will be how Russian Railways RŽD will behave, they want to take over a part of DB. If they will be successfull in that, DB would be their door to the EU market. Then we shall have a new situation because DB and RŽD together would be really big players.
That's indeed a scenario that could mess up all the relations between the big European players. Especially the relationship between the DB and the SNCF could be in serious trouble. The Germany - France routes will probably see the first real international competition.

In this light it's not strange that both DB and SNCF have recently ordered more multi system high speed trains. SNCF has ordered 49 quadri-current bi-level TGV DASYE sets (no they haven't bought any AGV sets for now) and the DB has ordered 15 Siemens Velaro D, a new version of the ICE 3 MF.

DB Velaro D:

[IMG]http://i42.************/r10hg2.jpg[/IMG]

But it will be interesting to see if the RZD will still be able to buy the DB with the current economic situation.
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Old February 8th, 2009, 09:35 PM   #432
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The Japanese Private company Mistui has already made a deal with Russians to run trains from China to Moscow through the whole country. Things are moving.
I cannot the proud germans selling their jewel DB to Russians. Is DB really in deep trouble?

Another thing I noticed is the offer of automatic bogies who can adapt automatically of gauge without changing bogies. Perfect to ride from Porto to Shangai... They just need to put on cars. So material is ready, just need open doors...
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Old February 8th, 2009, 11:19 PM   #433
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It's because the DB will be partly privatized.

The plan was that the stocks would be sold via the stock exchange late 2008, but that has been postponed officially because of the financial crisis. But the current problems with the ICE-3 and ICE-T trains are probably also a big reason why it was postponed. The plan is now that a stake of 24,9% in the company will be sold directly to investors the spring of 2009. And that the initial public offering of the stocks will be in two years time. In the long run the state will keep at least a 51% majority stake in the company, so it won't be a full privatization.
The main reason for the privatization is to raise capital for new investments and of course it's highly controversial. There's a strong opposition against the plan from different organizations and political parties that want to keep the DB state owned because the fear the possible negative effects.

The Russians have showed very strong interest in buying a minority stake in the company and the DB is also positive about it. So it's not because the DB is in trouble, it's more to make it even stronger.
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Old February 9th, 2009, 10:02 PM   #434
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Momo1435 View Post
I only hope that the SBB will take over the Switserland - Milano route from the completely failing Cisalpino. And Trenitalia won't be able to do same the other way around because the Swiss tracks won't be liberalized right away. Also there could be Swiss national services from Geneve and Lausanne to Ticino via Italy now.
But Cisalpino is a joint venture between SBB and Trenitalia anyway. If it's failing, surely they are responsible.
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Old February 9th, 2009, 11:21 PM   #435
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But in the joint venture Trenitalia is responsible for the trains and that's the big problem. The ETR 470 trains are owned by Cisalpino but are maintained by the Italians for example. And the current troubles with the ETR 470 are partly caused by problems with the maintenance. Trenitalia recently transfered the trains to a different maintenance depot that is not really suited for these trains, they can't check the 1,5 kV systems for example in the new depot. Trains with problems kept on running and that resulted in the very poor reliability of the Cisalpino services as the trains kept breaking down. The SBB has offered to do some checks on the trains in their depots, but the Italians didn't approve that.

It's a 50-50 joint venture, but most of the train and passenger kilometers are on SBB tracks. Trenitalia should only really have a minority stake in the company so that the SBB could take control and drastically improve the service with the current trains. The problems with the new ETR 610 trains could not have been prevented by the SBB, but I highly doubt that they would've bought Italian trains in the first place.

It looks like the difference in culture between the Swiss and Italians railway companies is the big problem here. The Cisalpino trains are used as national services with the very strict timetable in Switzerland the SBB isn't amused about the lack of cooperation.
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Old February 12th, 2009, 03:03 PM   #436
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That Velaro D looks fuuuugly, with that nose
Velaro is by far my most favourite since its the best looking (imho) and the fastest (fact).

--

I was wondering what others thought of inter-european high speed corridors.
Since I live in Hungary, I'm interested in a Paris-Budapest-Istanbul and a Budapest-Milano route, although the german and austrian secions (for good reasons) wont be 360 kph and theres not even talk of anythin like this east of Vienna

Also, there should be (imho) a high speed line from Kassel through Erfurt-Jena-Dresden-Wroclav-Katowice-Krakow.

Any other possible future inter-european HS(L) corridors you wanna see?
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Old February 12th, 2009, 05:45 PM   #437
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gramercy View Post
That Velaro D looks fuuuugly, with that nose
Velaro is by far my most favourite since its the best looking (imho) and the fastest (fact).

--

I was wondering what others thought of inter-european high speed corridors.
Since I live in Hungary, I'm interested in a Paris-Budapest-Istanbul and a Budapest-Milano route, although the german and austrian secions (for good reasons) wont be 360 kph and theres not even talk of anythin like this east of Vienna

Also, there should be (imho) a high speed line from Kassel through Erfurt-Jena-Dresden-Wroclav-Katowice-Krakow.

Any other possible future inter-european HS(L) corridors you wanna see?
Madrid–Paris–Bruxelles–Köln–Berlin–Warzawa–Mensk–Moskva
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Old February 12th, 2009, 10:46 PM   #438
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1. Edinburgh - London - Brussels - Koln - Munchen - Salzburg - Zagreb - Belgrade - Sofia - Istanbul
2. Glasgow - Paris - Geneva - Milano - Venezia - Trieste - Dubrovnik - Athens

+ a lot of dreamers, celebrities and roman writers aboard
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Old February 13th, 2009, 08:48 PM   #439
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Originally Posted by Micrav View Post
1. Edinburgh - London - Brussels - Koln - Munchen - Salzburg - Zagreb - Belgrade - Sofia - Istanbul
2. Glasgow - Paris - Geneva - Milano - Venezia - Trieste - Dubrovnik - Athens

+ a lot of dreamers, celebrities and roman writers aboard
Nah, your two corridors are too parallel. Athens would more probably be a
branch of your corridor N°1, from Beograd. Corridor N°2, after Milano, shoud
go to Roma and Napoli.
And add a N°3 Amsterdam-Bruxelles-Lille-Paris-Bordeaux-Madrid-Lisbon.
And a N°4 Vigo-Madrid-Barcelona-Montpellier-Marseille-Nice-Milan-Venise-Trieste-Zagreb-Wien-Kiev-Moscow ?
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Old February 14th, 2009, 12:12 AM   #440
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Quote:
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Nah, your two corridors are too parallel. Athens would more probably be a
branch of your corridor N°1, from Beograd. Corridor N°2, after Milano, shoud
go to Roma and Napoli.
And add a N°3 Amsterdam-Bruxelles-Lille-Paris-Bordeaux-Madrid-Lisbon.
And a N°4 Vigo-Madrid-Barcelona-Montpellier-Marseille-Nice-Milan-Venise-Trieste-Zagreb-Wien-Kiev-Moscow ?
You did not catch my idea maybe, the line Edinburgh-Instanbul is a "musical" line and Glasgow-Athens is an "architectural" thema line. Nothing ot do with economics. Sometimes you have to think not rational to bring new ideas!
Today, it is technically possible to ride in a car from Porto to Shangai. It is already amazing. The rest is a question of politics and mainly economics
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