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Old May 10th, 2011, 07:47 AM   #1281
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Originally Posted by Suburbanist View Post
In the case of families traveling with kids, together, there are some reasons by which many of them choose the car: it is cheap, compared to any combination of 4 round-trip fares. It provides convenience in hauling a lot of luggage and holiday gear (surf boards, bikes etc). Very importantly, it provides a one-way solution to get you from your house to your resort destination - you haul everything in your car, and go all the way to your destination.
You don't have kids obviously.

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High-speed travel has never been a domain of the holiday masses, it is an upscale product for certain distances.
The domain of the "holiday masses" is currently low cost airlines. However I doubt that this will remain the case. Oil will eventually become to expensive to be used as a fuel.

And there is no reason not to use a HSL that was build for medium distance services for trips that are longer. As already pointed out: The Ski Eurostar and Thalys services are very popular. If the Geneva - Barcelona - Madrid train starts running somewhere in the next couple of years I expect it to sell out solid most days.
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Old May 10th, 2011, 11:18 PM   #1282
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And there is no reason not to use a HSL that was build for medium distance services for trips that are longer. As already pointed out: The Ski Eurostar and Thalys services are very popular. If the Geneva - Barcelona - Madrid train starts running somewhere in the next couple of years I expect it to sell out solid most days.
Genève-Madrid services need to wait the completion of a bunch of high-speed links between Barcelona and Pepingran.
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Old May 11th, 2011, 07:22 AM   #1283
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Genève-Madrid services need to wait the completion of a bunch of high-speed links between Barcelona and Pepingran.
These links are almost completed. TGVs already go as far as Figueres at the moment. There are currently two train pairs a day doing Paris - Figueres, and SNCF and RENFE plan to increase the number of services once the line extends to Barcelona. SNCF has ordered a whole bunch of TGV Dasye sets for these services. The plan is to have 17 train pairs a day.
Currently the line goes to Figueres. It is expected to open to Girona in 2012, and to Barcelona (including a connection with the line to Madrid) in 2014.
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Old May 11th, 2011, 12:27 PM   #1284
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Originally Posted by krulstaartje View Post
Just a list I was compiling on long-distance routes that are now just not doable (>10 hours) that will be opening up as feasible services (<10 hours) within the next 10 years. This is a time not directly competitive with air, but something many are willing to take regularly. Especially compared to driving 10hrs+ for holidays which many European families do every summer, these are quite significant links that are being built. Compare it to the Ski Eurostar which takes 8h20 and is almost always fully booked. Also, note that these are all ridiculously long trips. Part of the trip is easy to figure out if you know the regular travel times on your route of interest.

None of this is new btw, but I thought it'd make for an interesting overview, as you often see close connection travel improvements listed, but not often the longer distance implications. Especially when considering multiple projects along the same route.

Barcelona - Frankfurt
2011: 13h30 (if someone would run a direct train, 11h)
2025: 7h00 (Barcelona - Figueres AVE, Nimes - Montpeiller LGV, Montpeiller - Perpignan LGV, LGV Rhin - Rhone)

Cologne - Milan
2011: 8h37 (fastest via bahn.de)
2020: 6h50 (Gotthard Base Tunnel projects, Neubaustrecke Frankfurt - Mannheim, Neubaustrecke Karlsruhe - Basel.)

Paris - Vienna
2011: 11h20 (if someone would run a direct train, 10h30)
2020: 8h00 (LGV Est Phase II, Neubaustrecke Stuttgart-Augsburg, Westbahn upgrade, possibly down to 7h30 if Munich-Salzburg upgrade is decided upon and finished within this time, not unlikely.)

Berlin - Rome
2011: 15h30 (let's imagine the connection in Munich is good)
2020: 9h00 (Neubaustrecke Halle-Erfurt, Neubaustrecke Erfurt-Nuremberg, Neue Unterinntalbahn, Brenner Base Tunnel, Italian speed upgrade)

Frankfurt - Stockholm
2011: 15h00
2025: 9:30 (Fehrman link + associated upgrades in Germany, Y-Trasse Hannover–Hamburg, Sweden getting its act together)
Fun list. So in the longer term, it might make some business sense to run a Barcelona - Stockholm train. The number of people who make the *entire* trip is going to be extremely limited of course, but as long as there's good traffic between the stops along that route....
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Old May 11th, 2011, 01:10 PM   #1285
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You're right that it could make business sense to run extreme long distance (>10h) services for a lot of reasons. The big reason longer services with lots of intermediate stops do not happen even in those cases where it makes business sense is that it is very hard to run on time.The probability of delay happening is a function of total km travelled in general, in most countries long-distance services perform worse compared to regional services. E.g. 20% of DB Fernferkehr trains are delayed more than five minutes compared to 14% of all trains. With extreme long distance this rises even further.

More specifically, the only very long distance high-speed services I can currently think of are holiday trains (Eurostar Ski Train as mentioned above, but also Amsterdam - Marseille holiday train) with few (if any) intermediate stops where delays do not matter that much as they do with a lot of stops on the way.

The few examples I know of long distance trains with a lot of intermediate stops all have, without fail, absolutely horrific punctuality records. CNL in general, Amsterdam - Basel direct ICE, Trans-Siberia, etc.

This is another reason why the coming into service of a lot of new sections of track is good; even if a lot of them have marginal speed improvements of less than 30 minutes (a lot of the German ones), running trains on their own high-speed right of way dramatically reduces the chance of delay** and makes more long-distance connections viable in that way.

So, executive summary, I still don't see many services >10h duration happening. That's why pushing distances below that treshold is so important

**Unless you're in Holland, where the High Speed Line sucks so much the delays there are much worse than on the over-filled, over-congested multi-use (goods+long distance+short distance) conventional rail.

Last edited by krulstaartje; May 11th, 2011 at 01:40 PM.
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Old May 11th, 2011, 03:06 PM   #1286
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krulstaartje View Post
You're right that it could make business sense to run extreme long distance (>10h) services for a lot of reasons. The big reason longer services with lots of intermediate stops do not happen even in those cases where it makes business sense is that it is very hard to run on time.The probability of delay happening is a function of total km travelled in general, in most countries long-distance services perform worse compared to regional services. E.g. 20% of DB Fernferkehr trains are delayed more than five minutes compared to 14% of all trains. With extreme long distance this rises even further.
Good point, using the same physical train for the entire distance probably isn't going to win the war so to speak.
What you're describing is still a case for something like a pan-European timetable or so, where decent integration of those different lines happens.
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Old May 11th, 2011, 03:06 PM   #1287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koen Acacia View Post
Fun list. So in the longer term, it might make some business sense to run a Barcelona - Stockholm train. The number of people who make the *entire* trip is going to be extremely limited of course, but as long as there's good traffic between the stops along that route....
The problem with extreme long runs is logistics. I think that for that kind of markets it's more suitable to have a good system of frequent trains between major hubs with short transfer times.
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Old May 11th, 2011, 03:11 PM   #1288
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Originally Posted by Koen Acacia View Post
Good point, using the same physical train for the entire distance probably isn't going to win the war so to speak.
What you're describing is still a case for something like a pan-European timetable or so, where decent integration of those different lines happens.
Yep. they should draw up something like the SBB's system of hubs where all long distance trains arrive/leave at the same time, but then europe wide for a selection of major hubs.
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Old May 11th, 2011, 08:17 PM   #1289
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These links are almost completed. TGVs already go as far as Figueres at the moment. There are currently two train pairs a day doing Paris - Figueres, and SNCF and RENFE plan to increase the number of services once the line extends to Barcelona. SNCF has ordered a whole bunch of TGV Dasye sets for these services. The plan is to have 17 train pairs a day.
Currently the line goes to Figueres. It is expected to open to Girona in 2012, and to Barcelona (including a connection with the line to Madrid) in 2014.
But what about the break-of-gauge between the already completed HSR in Spain and French border?
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Old May 11th, 2011, 08:31 PM   #1290
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Today there are two separate services Paris-Figueres Vilaflant (it's not the station of the original line) and Figueres Vilaflant-Girona-Barcelona connecting to each other. I suppose the transhipment will moved to Girona, if this part of the HSL open first. But I doubt it will happen, Girona north tunnel boring has commenced only a few weeks ago.
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Old May 12th, 2011, 12:18 AM   #1291
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But what about the break-of-gauge between the already completed HSR in Spain and French border?
All high speed rail networks in Spain are built according to the European standard gauge (1435mm) so there will be no problems.
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Old May 12th, 2011, 08:10 AM   #1292
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But what about the break-of-gauge between the already completed HSR in Spain and French border?
Isn't that what he speaks about? It will be closed in 2014.
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Old May 22nd, 2011, 11:26 PM   #1293
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A few pages before there was a conversation regarding the different Finnish Pendolinos.
The Sm6 used on the Allegro services is technically based on the new Pendolino, but they made it look like the old Pendolino so that the different trains would look more similar.

A faw of the differences:
The tilting technology is (luckily...) completely different from what was used in Sm3.
Using anything that existed in Sm3 would be stupid, because those trains are constantly failing in deepest winter because it's too cold for them, in summer because it's too hot for them and when it's around 0°C, the snow is too wet for them. I once had a quarrel with an ex, because I hadn't told her I'm arriving by a Pendolino and therefore she couldn't take into account that I will be late. And then she caught cold waiting at the platform..
Another problem has beenthat the data transmission between two units is done with an error-prone serial connection in Sm3, whereas Sm6 uses a faster and more reliable parallel connection.

Of course also most of the electrical parts are different etc., etc., etc.
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Old June 2nd, 2011, 06:31 PM   #1294
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krulstaartje View Post
Just a list I was compiling on long-distance routes that are now just not doable (>10 hours) that will be opening up as feasible services (<10 hours) within the next 10 years. This is a time not directly competitive with air, but something many are willing to take regularly. Especially compared to driving 10hrs+ for holidays which many European families do every summer, these are quite significant links that are being built. Compare it to the Ski Eurostar which takes 8h20 and is almost always fully booked. Also, note that these are all ridiculously long trips. Part of the trip is easy to figure out if you know the regular travel times on your route of interest.

None of this is new btw, but I thought it'd make for an interesting overview, as you often see close connection travel improvements listed, but not often the longer distance implications. Especially when considering multiple projects along the same route.

Barcelona - Frankfurt
2011: 13h30 (if someone would run a direct train, 11h)
2025: 7h00 (Barcelona - Figueres AVE, Nimes - Montpeiller LGV, Montpeiller - Perpignan LGV, LGV Rhin - Rhone)

Cologne - Milan
2011: 8h37 (fastest via bahn.de)
2020: 6h50 (Gotthard Base Tunnel projects, Neubaustrecke Frankfurt - Mannheim, Neubaustrecke Karlsruhe - Basel.)

Paris - Vienna
2011: 11h20 (if someone would run a direct train, 10h30)
2020: 8h00 (LGV Est Phase II, Neubaustrecke Stuttgart-Augsburg, Westbahn upgrade, possibly down to 7h30 if Munich-Salzburg upgrade is decided upon and finished within this time, not unlikely.)

Berlin - Rome
2011: 15h30 (let's imagine the connection in Munich is good)
2020: 9h00 (Neubaustrecke Halle-Erfurt, Neubaustrecke Erfurt-Nuremberg, Neue Unterinntalbahn, Brenner Base Tunnel, Italian speed upgrade)

Frankfurt - Stockholm
2011: 15h00
2025: 9:30 (Fehrman link + associated upgrades in Germany, Y-Trasse Hannover–Hamburg, Sweden getting its act together)

I think London to just about anywhere could make sense, especially overnight to Mediterranean destinations.
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Old June 2nd, 2011, 06:53 PM   #1295
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I think London to just about anywhere could make sense, especially overnight to Mediterranean destinations.
No way. To keep daytime services reliability above 99% without buffed up schedules to make up for delay, HSR lines need to be closed at night for maintenance. And overnight trains are outdated, a thing of the 70s.
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Old June 2nd, 2011, 08:06 PM   #1296
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No way. To keep daytime services reliability above 99% without buffed up schedules to make up for delay, HSR lines need to be closed at night for maintenance. And overnight trains are outdated, a thing of the 70s.
First argument - is valid, but the second isn't. Sleeper's are still good, when you don't want to waste your daytime...
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Old June 2nd, 2011, 11:27 PM   #1297
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And overnight trains are outdated, a thing of the 70s.
That's why Elipsos has average occupancy ~90%...
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Old June 3rd, 2011, 12:05 AM   #1298
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Even more than that, it's hard to find free places and trains are often fully booked (from leaning seats to cabins with private bathroom).
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Old June 3rd, 2011, 12:15 AM   #1299
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Maybe there is a niche market of people wanting to pay €200 for 14h travelling from Barcelona to Milano. However, the number of night trains operating in Europe and the negligible amount of passengers carried by them makes them just a weird product/activity.
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Old June 3rd, 2011, 12:52 AM   #1300
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Must be like those weirdos who pay €200 to stay in a hotel for a night, you know...sleeping.

The price of air fares is only going to go one way.
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