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Old July 30th, 2012, 04:32 AM   #541
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Property prices have leveled out, despite poor global economic conditions. Haters can suck it.
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Old July 30th, 2012, 04:49 AM   #542
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nobody's hating on China here. They're ambitious with their building projects. Perhaps too ambitious.
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Old July 30th, 2012, 06:24 AM   #543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay View Post
Sure it has half a billion people who will eventually come to cities, yet most of these people couldn't possibly afford much of what the government builds. It would be better to let the country grow economically before building dozens of massive superscrapers, which is awesome, don't get me wrong, but it has its consecuences.
And yet Chinese cities (e.g. Shanghai) are growing at insane rates... are those people living on the street or what? Those buildings are getting filled one way or another. This is what matters. Nothing is perfect and neither is China's urban development. However I m very skeptical about those who have been 'predicting' China property bubble... this has been happening for the past 30 years or so. And yet most such 'experts' forget to note how different the circumstances are in comparison with America or even Europe. Anything from conditions to get a bank loan to the type of people who are buying those apartments.

This may not be related to property but there was that article which was citing one such famous 'expert' N.Roubini... he was talking about railways (a stupid thing to do by him...). Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...75C1OF20110613. And this guy is a respected expert and investor... yet he said a complete nonsense in every single statement he made in that article.

I mean this is the kind of 'experts' who are giving their 'opinions' on China's property development too. This is what's mainly forming the opinion about 'China bubble'...
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Old July 30th, 2012, 08:40 AM   #544
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay View Post
Sure it has half a billion people who will eventually come to cities, yet most of these people couldn't possibly afford much of what the government builds. It would be better to let the country grow economically before building dozens of massive superscrapers, which is awesome, don't get me wrong, but it has its consecuences.
The government doesn't build skyscrapers, they only build cheap modern commie blocks on the outskirt of the city to offer affordable housing for the poor. Vast majority of the building are done by developers seeking profit, so they won't do it if it doesn't make economic sense.

The Chinese property market in fact has already settled into a more mature and stable model. The affluent will buy better houses and move into them, their older place will be sold or left as rental. Those places can be purchased by people who can't afford the best but already has an older place to sell. People whose houses were torn down will get compensation to buy a new place, probably not at exactly where they live but definitely enough to afford some place with better living conditions. People moving into the cities will first bunk with others in rental apartments, a few years later they may form families and afford to rent their own place. A few years later they can afford to buy an older crappy apartment. As they earn more money and the property value increases they can sell the place and buy something better. This cycle has been repeating itself and it will work for the foreseeable future.
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The building under construction next to Shanghai Tower is Oriental Financial Center. The "plot" next to Jinmao is reserved green belt and no skyscraper will be built there.
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Old July 30th, 2012, 11:17 AM   #545
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Few people? China still has about half a billion rural people who eventually will move to urban areas. They will have to live somewhere... the classical American style bubble is simply impossible in China and it will not happen. Not under current circumstances anyway.
true, but the fact is there's no way in the foreseeable future that the half billion people can afford them. New, empty apartments are largely held by immensely wealthy individuals of the social elite class as investment tools. As long as they continue to invest in real estate, the housing price will continue to appreciate.
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Old August 6th, 2012, 12:05 AM   #546
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Rumor is that Sky City will have a Ritz Carlton in it.

http://www.360byd.com/Information.asp?ProjectID=39309
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The building under construction next to Shanghai Tower is Oriental Financial Center. The "plot" next to Jinmao is reserved green belt and no skyscraper will be built there.
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Old August 6th, 2012, 01:06 AM   #547
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However I m very skeptical about those who have been 'predicting' China property bubble... this has been happening for the past 30 years or so. And yet most such 'experts' forget to note how different the circumstances are in comparison with America or even Europe.
Your quote is exactly what people say when there is a bubble.

China is NOT different.

The Chinese are human beings, subject to the same forces as people in Europe and America. The reason that this has gone of for 30 years is that like in Europe and the USA, the industrialization growth was for 70 years. During that time there were depressions where the standard of living rose but prices and wages were stagnant or dropped.

China is experiencing a property bubble that will burst.

The question is how will this manifest and in what manner?

I think it will just notch down so that many people can buy a flat with a sane amount of money, not 3 generations of accumulated savings.

There is only so much accumulated capital and when it runs out, there will be no one to buy.

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As they earn more money and the property value increases they can sell the place and buy something better. This cycle has been repeating itself and it will work for the foreseeable future.
Houses are a consumer durable good, not an investment.

The notion that property values always go up is simply intellectually incorrect.

To predicate one's purchase on a future home on the assumption that your property will always go up in value so that you may sell to the next lesser fool, is just not reality.
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Old August 6th, 2012, 02:05 AM   #548
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Your quote is exactly what people say when there is a bubble.

China is NOT different.
But it is. The financial system, capital controls, regulation of banking activities, type of investors in real estate. Those things are very different from the US or Europe. True, there may be some negative outcomes for the economy due to unhealthy investment activities but they won't occur in the same way as they do in the US/Europe. That is simply not possible.
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Old August 6th, 2012, 02:31 AM   #549
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But it is. The financial system, capital controls, regulation of banking activities, type of investors in real estate. Those things are very different from the US or Europe. True, there may be some negative outcomes for the economy due to unhealthy investment activities but they won't occur in the same way as they do in the US/Europe. That is simply not possible.
actually it is possible, people always are in denial when things are going good, then when pop goes the bubble everyone is like oh, i guess nothing lasts forever. thats just the way it goes.
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Old August 6th, 2012, 02:46 AM   #550
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarbaricManchurian View Post


Property prices have leveled out, despite poor global economic conditions. Haters can suck it.
oh and to you mr. brainwashed chinese man/woman, your obviously out of your mind, sorry you need a reality check, most of chinas population is poor, there filled with ghost cities becuase there to poor to afford them, how can you say someone-(average income is near 5k in china)- can afford a 300k house, you do realize that takes 60 years to get if you make 5k a year, please dont act like china is like the god country, please, if your all happy working in a sweat shop then thats fine with me, and its just a fact that some bubles burst, and its preety apparent that one will burst in china, look at japan for instance, 70s and 80s, japan was like what china is now, building cheap things selling them cheap and getting a major boost in the economy? what happened..there bubbles burst, and they got their shit together and now there doing great, all im saying is if chinas bubbles burst no1 is saying they will turn into a 3rd world country, but seriously, you need to get out of the mentaility that china is invinsible
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Old August 6th, 2012, 03:47 AM   #551
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Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
Your quote is exactly what people say when there is a bubble.

China is NOT different.

The Chinese are human beings, subject to the same forces as people in Europe and America.
True, but an important factor you missed is the government. Which as you know is a different animal. Considering the cool down measures these past quarters, if their is anyone who can reduce this bubble... its the Chinese government.

Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
China is experiencing a property bubble that will burst.

The question is how will this manifest and in what manner?

I think it will just notch down so that many people can buy a flat with a sane amount of money, not 3 generations of accumulated savings.
agreed, I personally think when it "busts" I would say its more of a soft landing as opposed to the US and EU where everyone was hit by a train. that's just idle speculation but IMO the setup the bubble is in is quite stable and steady deflation seems correct. unlike the US or EU there is huge demand for a better flat in china but they'er too expensive at the moment. It can only crash so far before everyone floods to market for cheaper apartments. unlike dubai or something where there isn't really another "market".

Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
Houses are a consumer durable good, not an investment.
given the amount of "redevelopment" china has been doing a fair portion could be called an investment for better housing among the general populace.

Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
The notion that property values always go up is simply intellectually incorrect.
+1, but also is the notion that property values going up automatically means a sudden violent end is also simply intellectually incorrect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
The financial system, capital controls, regulation of banking activities, type of investors in real estate. Those things are very different from the US or Europe. True, there may be some negative outcomes for the economy due to unhealthy investment activities but they won't occur in the same way as they do in the US/Europe. That is simply not possible.
they are certainly different enough to warrant a closer look at the situation in china.

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Originally Posted by 1Filipe1 View Post
actually it is possible, people always are in denial when things are going good, then when pop goes the bubble everyone is like oh, i guess nothing lasts forever. thats just the way it goes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Filipe1 View Post
oh and to you mr. brainwashed chinese man/woman, your obviously out of your mind, sorry you need a reality check, most of chinas population is poor, there filled with ghost cities becuase there to poor to afford them, how can you say someone-(average income is near 5k in china)- can afford a 300k house, you do realize that takes 60 years to get if you make 5k a year, please dont act like china is like the god country, please, if your all happy working in a sweat shop then thats fine with me, and its just a fact that some bubles burst, and its preety apparent that one will burst in china, look at japan for instance, 70s and 80s, japan was like what china is now, building cheap things selling them cheap and getting a major boost in the economy? what happened..there bubbles burst, and they got their shit together and now there doing great, all im saying is if chinas bubbles burst no1 is saying they will turn into a 3rd world country, but seriously, you need to get out of the mentaility that china is invinsible
As the chart shows prices are easing up so any catastrophic crash like the US your predicting is remote. The sea ghost cities you speak of where is it? I see some here and there in China you know the same ones the media cycles though to single out like a broken record but certainly not a massive pandemic of them, as you described, compared to the number of useless subdivisions that seem to blanket the US left, right, and center. Yes there is a few ghost cities due to stupid corrupt local governments, as you said China is not perfect. Also China is huge, saying everywhere is bubbling up is like going to detriot and thinking all of US is a declining sunset shithole. I see some areas particularly in the interior as having oversupply but in the coastal tier one cities office vacancy rates are unhealthy low. I do see prices easing up further too in the future. Besides, I wouldn't shit talk China right now, given most world economic growth is from there. Cause if China's economy gives... the world is pretty much screwed. Back on topic given what i just said I personally think this should not get built nor will it, given the central government's agenda to fight speculation.

Last edited by saiho; August 6th, 2012 at 03:59 AM. Reason: grammer
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Old August 6th, 2012, 03:51 AM   #552
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True, but an important factor you missed is the government. Which as you know is a different animal. Considering the cool down measures these past quarters, if their is anyone who can reduce this bubble... its the Chinese government.



agreed, I personally think when it "busts" I would say its more of a soft landing as opposed to the US and EU where everyone was hit by a train. that's just idle speculation but IMO the setup the bubble is in is quite stable and steady deflation seems correct. unlike the US or EU there is huge demand for a better flat in china but they'er too expensive at the moment. It can only crash so far before everyone floods to market for cheaper apartments. unlike dubai or something where there isn't really another "market".



given the amount of "redevelopment" china has been doing a fair portion could be called an investment for better housing among the general populace.



+1, but also is the notion that property values going up automatically means a sudden violent end is also simply intellectually incorrect.



they are certainly different enough to warrant a closer look at the situation in china.





As the chart shows prices are easing up so any catastrophic crash like the US your predicting is remote. Though I do see prices easing up further in the future. Also China is huge, saying everywhere bubbling up is like going to detriot and thinking al of US is a declining sunset shithole. I see some areas particularly in the interior as having oversupply but in the coastal tier one cities office vacancy rates are unhealthy low. Also I won't shit talk China right now given most world economic growth is from there, cause if China's economy gives... the world is pretty much screwed. back on topic I personally think this should not get built nor will it given the central government's agenda to fight speculation.
its funny you say that, when the usa economy went bloop, so did the rest of the world...its nice to see you proud for your country or whatever, but its okay to deny the facts, and chinas economy is slowing, just saying. And saying china is huge is false becuase the usa is larger then china in land area and it doesnt matter if the economy bursts it wont affect the cities, it affects the entire country obviously, and china can burst, no one wants there cheap toys that break in a few weeks,
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Old August 6th, 2012, 04:13 AM   #553
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its funny you say that, when the usa economy went bloop, so did the rest of the world...
but China's didn't it only slowed down .

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its nice to see you proud for your country or whatever, but its okay to deny the facts,
right back at ya

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Originally Posted by 1Filipe1 View Post
And saying china is huge is false becuase the usa is larger then china in land area
try to think of "huge" less literally and get back to me

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and it doesnt matter if the economy bursts it wont affect the cities, it affects the entire country obviously, and china can burst,
not saying that it won't it just won't end up like the US or EU in the near future.
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Old August 6th, 2012, 04:30 AM   #554
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oh and to you mr. brainwashed chinese man/woman, your obviously out of your mind, sorry you need a reality check, most of chinas population is poor, there filled with ghost cities becuase there to poor to afford them, how can you say someone-(average income is near 5k in china)- can afford a 300k house, you do realize that takes 60 years to get if you make 5k a year, please dont act like china is like the god country, please, if your all happy working in a sweat shop then thats fine with me, and its just a fact that some bubles burst, and its preety apparent that one will burst in china, look at japan for instance, 70s and 80s, japan was like what china is now, building cheap things selling them cheap and getting a major boost in the economy? what happened..there bubbles burst, and they got their shit together and now there doing great, all im saying is if chinas bubbles burst no1 is saying they will turn into a 3rd world country, but seriously, you need to get out of the mentaility that china is invinsible
I'm actually a natural born American but the difference is I don't deny reality. If you can't clearly see that China is on a better track long-term than the US, you're blind.
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Old August 6th, 2012, 04:30 AM   #555
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but China's didn't it only slowed down .



right back at ya



try to think of "huge" less literally and get back to me



not saying that it won't it just won't end up like the US or EU in the near future.
and china is slowing again, if you keep up with the facts, and right now there manufacturing is almost about to contract, and how would you know if it will end up like the us or eu? people always think the next super power is invinsible-cold war-russia was great, failed<, 70s, 80s, japan wil rule-failed, 8/5/2012-china will rule-and most of the times is wen the usa is in a reccession people really need to open there eyes, i mean come on lol facts are the facts
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Old August 6th, 2012, 04:33 AM   #556
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I'm actually a natural born American but the difference is I don't deny reality. If you can't clearly see that China is on a better track long-term than the US, you're blind.
actually you do deny reality becuase you block out whatever you don't want to hear...china feels that building these huge buildings will make the world look at them, they need to realize the world doesn't really care, everytime the usa's economy is in a reccession seems like everyone doubts in it, but when its going good, its a great country, long term track?-people in the usa are ready to work, and jobs are coming back, slowly but they are, china is slowing, and the manufacturing is barely growing, its actually borderline contracting, so how is that a better long term track? tall buildings symbolize nothing except thinking your cool
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Old August 6th, 2012, 04:35 AM   #557
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People like you are wrong and have been wrong for the last 30 years. I'll just put my faith in reality rather than some crackpot haters
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Old August 6th, 2012, 04:37 AM   #558
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People like you are wrong and have been wrong for the last 30 years. I'll just put my faith in reality rather than some crackpot haters
yes, ignore what you dont want to hear, thats reality alright, maybe for chinese people, most of you are brainwashed or probally spys for you government, so keep thinking that way, and whose hating? only person i see hating is you your mad about the facts, i said the facts and you dont like them, i didnt boast about any other country or the country of my own
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Old August 6th, 2012, 04:47 AM   #559
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Well, the only problem with your post is, you're wrong. I know you're wrong. You know you're wrong. We all know you're wrong.
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Old August 6th, 2012, 04:59 AM   #560
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Well, the only problem with your post is, you're wrong. I know you're wrong. You know you're wrong. We all know you're wrong.
see you prove me right, you ignore the facts, its okay, dont shed a tear
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