Time to leave the EU?

[Isaac Newell]

What's the timetable for Sweden joining?

[pricemazda]

Ask the Swedes. If you are attemping in your usual churlish way to highlight that Sweden has no plans to join, then why not just say 'Sweden has no current plans to join'.

But ask again when it is Sweden, the UK and Denmark not members when the rest of the EU makes all the important decisions as members of the eurozone and the British Prime Minister gets booted out of the meeting because he's not important enough while the Prime Minister of Malta gets an equal vote.

[Jonesy55]

Originally Posted by pricemazda

Anyway it seems all important decisions in the EU will now be decided by the 17 eurozone members at their twice yearly summits.

Cameron's attempt to form a non-euro group to influence is as ill fated as when we set up EFTA to counter the EEC.

One by one the members of Eastern Europe will be joining the euro as they are legally obliged to do so. We will soon be left leader of club of pigmies.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this outcome will mean we will be forced to join the euro. It is now only a question of time.

Do you envisage Switzerland joining the Euro?

[Isaac Newell]

Originally Posted by pricemazda

Ask the Swedes. If you are attemping in your usual churlish way to highlight that Sweden has no plans to join, then why not just say 'Sweden has no current plans to join'.

But ask again when it is Sweden, the UK and Denmark not members when the rest of the EU makes all the important decisions as members of the eurozone and the British Prime Minister gets booted out of the meeting because he's not important enough while the Prime Minister of Malta gets an equal vote.

Because I don't know.

Who cares if the Prime Minister gets booted out of a meeting, it's not our currency and not likely to be our currency.

[pricemazda]

Originally Posted by Jonesy55

Do you envisage Switzerland joining the Euro?

Do you want the British Prime Minister to have as much influence over major economic decisions as Switzerland?

[pricemazda]

Originally Posted by Isaac Newell

Because I don't know.

Who cares if the Prime Minister gets booted out of a meeting, it's not our currency and not likely to be our currency.

You obviously missed the bit about us demanding they move to full fiscal union and lecturing them on what they should do. So if it's not our business why the hell haven't we shut up?

This will be exactly the same as when the EEC started we stayed out (despite being invited to join) thinking it would all end in tears. We then thought shit we need to set up a counter (EFTA) then as the years rolled on we gradually became aware we couldn't influence decisions that had a profound impact on our economy and applied to join (three times).

I know some people will want to pretend that this doesn't matter or isn't important to our future but if others get together forming a voting block and making massive economic decisions that either officially or de facto we will have to live by that has profound implications for our sovereignty. We will have even less sovereignty by staying outside than inside. British governments won't tolerate for long being second class members and having no power to influence change. We will have as much influence over these decisions as Liechtenstein.

[Jonesy55]

Originally Posted by pricemazda

You obviously missed the bit about us demanding they move to full fiscal union and lecturing them on what they should do. So if it's not our business why the hell haven't we shut up?

I don't see it as lecturing, just giving an opinion, they don't have to listen but many voices in the Eurozone are saying the same.

[Jonesy55]

Originally Posted by pricemazda

Do you want the British Prime Minister to have as much influence over major economic decisions as Switzerland?

I'm not anti-euro at all but i can't see that Switzerland has been particularly harmed by this state of affairs.

[pricemazda]

I thought one of the major problems identified by eurosceptics was a lack of democratic control. The Swiss model means they get ZERO say over the single market rules they have to implement regardless of how they impact their citizens, businesses or economy. It's infact the worst of all models. It would be better to be outside and have full control or inside and have influence then the half way house.

The complacency about our position in the EU and its benefits in this country today astounds me. People think there is some mythical other option in which we will get everything our way with no costs or damage to our businesses.

The Swiss or Norwegian model basically means we would have no MEPs, no Commissioner, no votes in Council and no veto over those decisions - BUT we'd still have to implement them. This situation is only going to grow as the eurozone integrates further and it won't be long before we won't like some of those decisions that impact on our economy.

[mexico86]

Originally Posted by pricemazda

The complacency about our position in the EU and its benefits in this country today astounds me. People think there is some mythical other option in which we will get everything our way with no costs or damage to our businesses.

Agreed. Much like some Scots' hair-brained ideas of withdrawing from the UK, it just doesn't add up.

[Substructure]

If the UK decides to stay in the Union, it will indeed most likely end up using the Euro and ditching the GBP.

There are several reasons for that.
A- The GBP has lost its supremacy to the Dollar, the Euro and the Yen. It is still quoted and traded, but on a second rank. There is no reason its trading share could go up in the future as the Euro gains momentum year after year, and so does the Yuan.
B- The UK is in massive debt, more than any Eurozone state, and its purchasing power is also decreasing. Sooner or later, it will need some convergence or stability criteria to manage this debt, and the financial stability of the Eurozone (and EFSF) could only help.
C- Market volatility, increased globalization, and change conditions will leave aside the more isolated countries. Having an isolated currency won't help.

Of course, this may be premature, but on a middle term (15-20 years from now) the global economies will have shifted to major currencies. The Euro is already the second most traded currency in the World (40% share), behind the USD but way before the Yen (19%) and GBP (12%).
Also, the G20 is working on a monetary dumping prevention scheme, which would end up in a new International Monetary System. This IMS would be set up on an currency basket embedding the USD, EUR, YUAN and YEN. The proposal to include the GBP was dismissed, judged as not significant enough in world trade.
This leaves very little future to the GBP and I think it's safe to claim the UK's monetary future probably dwells inside the Eurozone.

[pricemazda]

The Germans are proposing treaty changes including possible election of the Commission. Are we really going to veto increasing democratic accountability? Will we be in the absurd position of the UK public voting in a referendum against increasing elections in the EU? The British public want a vote on the EU to say no. They don't really care about the specifics if it was the euro, the Lisbon Treaty, motherhood and apple pie.

I will put money on a total volte face of British government preference for intergovernmentalism in the EU to suddenly supporting the community method (the Commission) on these new structures as the only way to preserve British influence on these new policies. Only weak states really support the community method.

Regardless what the British govt does or we say in a vote. The Germans have made it clear if they can't get agreement among the 27, they will proceed among the 17 outside of EU structures. Merkel is even prepared to amend the German constitution apparently to make sure the new economic government goes through.

This is pretty close as a fait accompli as you can get. And all decided with no British say whatsoever.

[Core Rising]

Originally Posted by Substructure

The UK is in massive debt, more than any Eurozone state.

[citation needed]

[SO143]

Eurozone leaders seek help from China and Brazil to get some aid



BRUSSELS European Union leaders made some progress toward a strategy to fight the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis on Sunday, nearing agreement on bank recapitalisation and on how to leverage their rescue fund to try to stop bond market contagion.

But final decisions were deferred until a second summit on Wednesday and sharp differences remain over the size of losses private holders of Greek government bonds will have to accept.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy backed down in the face of implacable German opposition to his desire to use unlimited European Central Bank (ECB) funds to fight the crisis. Instead, the eurozone may turn to emerging economies such as China and Brazil for help in underpinning its sickly bond market.

“Further work is still needed and that is why we will take the decisions in the follow-up eurozone summit,” European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said after chairing 12 hours of talks.

He indicated that Italy, the euro zone state now in the markets’ firing line, had been told to come up with a more convincing plan this week to implement structural economic reforms to raise its growth potential.

“Between now and Wednesday, some members of the European Council will have to convince colleagues that their country is implementing the promised measures fully,” Van Rompuy said.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he expected to call a cabinet meeting on Monday to discuss measures to boost growth, as Italy came under mounting pressure from European partners to step up reforms to restore market confidence.

Sarkozy acknowledged that France’s proposal to multiply the firepower of the eurozone’s rescue fund by turning it into a bank and letting it borrow from the ECB would not fly for now because neither Germany nor the central bank accepted it.

“No solution is viable if it doesn’t have the support of all the European institutions,” the French leader told a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Read more http://www.omantribune.com/index.php...ading=Business

[Jonesy55]

Originally Posted by Substructure

If the UK decides to stay in the Union, it will indeed most likely end up using the Euro and ditching the GBP.

There are several reasons for that.
A- The GBP has lost its supremacy to the Dollar, the Euro and the Yen. It is still quoted and traded, but on a second rank. There is no reason its trading share could go up in the future as the Euro gains momentum year after year, and so does the Yuan.

You could say the same about all other global currencies, if the GBP is doomed because of its low trading volumes compared to those other currencies, why haven't the Swiss Franc, Korean Won, Australian dollar etc already disappeared long ago with a much smaller trading volume than the GBP?

Originally Posted by Substructure

B- The UK is in massive debt, more than any Eurozone state, and its purchasing power is also decreasing. Sooner or later, it will need some convergence or stability criteria to manage this debt, and the financial stability of the Eurozone (and EFSF) could only help.

The UK does not have more public debt than any Eurozone country, nor is its NIIP worse than all other Eurozone countries, that is simply false.

Originally Posted by Substucture

Of course, this may be premature, but on a middle term (15-20 years from now) the global economies will have shifted to major currencies. The Euro is already the second most traded currency in the World (40% share), behind the USD but way before the Yen (19%) and GBP (12%).
Also, the G20 is working on a monetary dumping prevention scheme, which would end up in a new International Monetary System. This IMS would be set up on an currency basket embedding the USD, EUR, YUAN and YEN. The proposal to include the GBP was dismissed, judged as not significant enough in world trade.
This leaves very little future to the GBP and I think it's safe to claim the UK's monetary future probably dwells inside the Eurozone.

Again, if that applies to the GBP, it also applies to 99% of global currencies, will the Singapore dollar, Norwegian Krone, Russian Rouble, Indian Rupee etc also not exist?

There are good reasons for the Euro's existence and arguments for why we should join, but these are not strong points imo.

PS check the maths, if Euro has 40%, Yen 19% and Pound 12%, how can US dollar be No 1?

[Substructure]

Originally Posted by Core Rising

[citation needed]

Sorry, I'm a little late.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...in-Europe.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...rld-table.html

Indeed it looks like Greece is now on top, but unlike Greece, the UK has a strong deficit despite oil revenues.

@Jonesy : for some reason, the currency trade is calculated on a 200% base. I don't figure out why.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro#Tr...osts_and_risks
Also, I meant deficit and not debt, my bad. The UK is in the EU average regarding debt.

[Kampflamm]

I for one welcome our new Chinese overlords!

[Jonesy55]

Originally Posted by Substructure

Sorry, I'm a little late.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...in-Europe.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...rld-table.html

Indeed it looks like Greece is now on top, but unlike Greece, the UK has a strong deficit despite oil revenues.

@Jonesy : for some reason, the currency trade is calculated on a 200% base. I don't figure out why.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro#Tr...osts_and_risks
Also, I meant deficit and not debt, my bad. The UK is in the EU average regarding debt.

UK has better deficit despite Greek shipping trade. The UK has oil, no point excluding that, it is part of the reality of the economy.

Yes, our deficit is terrible, but it is being reduced, recent monthly figures have been promising. And starting from s below average total debt position we should be able to stabilize at a slightly above average but not drastic position unlike some countries that had 100% GDP debt even in the pre-recession times.

The next few years won't be golden days for the UK but i can't see collapse happening and I don't see many western countries in significantly better situations.

[b4mmy]

I'm leaving the EU soon. Can't wait to see the back of the place

[mexico86]

I've recently joined the EU. Glad to see the front of the place.