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Old September 24th, 2016, 10:31 PM   #861
Sunfuns
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Originally Posted by kato2k8 View Post
Um, a station with 2-hour intervals between long-distance trains would be about the lowest hub category in Germany. It's about the point where DB will consider taking a station off the long-distance grid even if it doesn't cost them much in infrastructure.

Munich-Nuremberg as an example operationally was designed with hourly intervals for initial and 30-minute intervals at full operations, since expanded to virtual 20-minute intervals. Passenger number planning for the route was for 6 million initial expanding to 8 million within 3 years (exceeded at then 10 million on ICE + 2 million on RE).
What makes you think that my idea was that those 10 trains would be the only thing running on the line? If that was the case sure it would be lousy. In reality there would be a lot more than that. Some trains would only go part of the way (to Nuremberg, for example), others would branch off to other cities. There would be so many uses for a line going straight through the country from one end to another.
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Old September 24th, 2016, 10:35 PM   #862
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That's why trains normaly don't run only between A and B, but proceed to C, D, E and s.o..
That`s not true either. From Basel where I live there is an hourly nonstop train to Zurich (often full). Plenty of examples of nonstop HS trains as well (Spain, France, UK, Italy). Usually you have a mix of all stops and express services on the same line.
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Old September 24th, 2016, 10:50 PM   #863
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"Normally" doesn't mean "without exeptions". If express trains exist that's because these are "full", and fullfill the specs I explained before.
Anyway, express trains are rare, and transport a number of passengers not sufficient to deserve a special line.
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Old September 25th, 2016, 12:57 AM   #864
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Could you price the construction of this 661 km (great circle route) line and compare that to likely revenue?
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Old September 25th, 2016, 01:52 AM   #865
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Currently Hamburg-Munich can be reached in 5:27h with 7 stops in between (Hanover, Goettingen, Kassel, Fulda, Wurzburg, Nuremberg, Ingholdstadt).

By reducing the number of stops (keeping Hanover, Kassel, Nuremberg) and upgrading certain sections to at least 250km/h, travel time could be possibly reduced to 5:00h or even 4:30h. With more 300km/h upgrades potentially down to 4h.

Think that would be tolerable for the tax payer.

Especially Hamburg-Hanover could be upgraded to 300km/h. Its basically flat land and so should be quite affordable.

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Old September 25th, 2016, 04:40 PM   #866
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What is the distance between Hamburg and Munich? French SNCF manages the 730 km between Paris and Marseille in (just over) 3 hours.
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Old September 25th, 2016, 04:56 PM   #867
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What is the distance between Hamburg and Munich? French SNCF manages the 730 km between Paris and Marseille in (just over) 3 hours.
It's slightly more (770 km by road), that's why I proposed 3 1/2 h as a realistic target with 2 intermediate stops.
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Old September 25th, 2016, 05:10 PM   #868
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So in areas with closer spaced population centres (like Germany) you do not need such high speeds.
If the population centres in this country were as close as you suggest it wouldn't take a whopping 5,5 hours between them. The truth is that the both Berlin and Hamburg are too far off the large cities in the south and the west of Germany. The only way to provide a useful rail connection on these relations are non-stop high-speed services. But with an inadequate infrastructure such services aren't quick enough, passengers fly instead and the existing high-speed lines remain under-utilised.

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The future is decentralisation, not concentration.
You seem to live in a different universe. Precisely the opposite is actually true. The largest cities and its surrounding towns are growing while the rest of the country is shrinking. This trend is most likely to continue so that the population will be even more concentrated in a few conurbations in the future.
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Old September 25th, 2016, 06:55 PM   #869
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The largest cities and its surrounding towns are growing while the rest of the country is shrinking. This trend is most likely to continue so that the population will be even more concentrated in a few conurbations in the future.
Yes, I agree. Politicians may wring their hands in public and deliver passionate speeches about preserving and strengthening the local environment. But the reality is different. In France (where I live) new railway spending is now strongly concentrated on high-speed and metros/trams. The latter are mostly found in provincial cities that 20 years ago one would have said are too small for such grand projects. The implications are clear: the planners are preparing for a world in which the huge majority of the population live in a dozen or so cities. The future's rail transport will focus on: (1) jumping as quickly as possible between those cities; and (2) connecting each of them well internally.
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Old September 26th, 2016, 02:55 AM   #870
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Currently Hamburg-Munich can be reached in 5:27h with 7 stops in between (Hanover, Goettingen, Kassel, Fulda, Wurzburg, Nuremberg, Ingholdstadt).

By reducing the number of stops (keeping Hanover, Kassel, Nuremberg) and upgrading certain sections to at least 250km/h, travel time could be possibly reduced to 5:00h or even 4:30h. With more 300km/h upgrades potentially down to 4h.

Think that would be tolerable for the tax payer.

Especially Hamburg-Hanover could be upgraded to 300km/h. Its basically flat land and so should be quite affordable.
Sounds like a far more sensible idea. Upgrading those line speeds is worthwhile and achievable.

Again, I'm not against building high speed routes just huge budget busting vanity projects; the original premise of the argument was building end to end lines with no intermediate stops. Bypassing Wurzburg and Goettingen is one thing but cities like Hanover is another.

1.3 million air passengers is well below 50% of what Paris-Marseille and Barcelona-Madrid for example had. They also had rubbish train connections. I suspect a large % of those who would switch from plane have already done so given the superior frequencies already offered on this route.
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Old September 26th, 2016, 01:06 PM   #871
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Again, I'm not against building high speed routes just huge budget busting vanity projects; the original premise of the argument was building end to end lines with no intermediate stops. Bypassing Wurzburg and Goettingen is one thing but cities like Hanover is another.
Yes, but I don't think that can be the whole story. The Autobahn between Hamburg and Bavaria doesn't pass via the city center of Hanover. It bypasses the city, and the cars that have an errand in Hanover turn off. That's basically the concept the French railways have chosen. The HS lines bypass Lyon, and even to some extent Paris.

One unrelated reason is IMO that in Germany mayors consider it the ultimate snub if not every ICE train stops in their city. (A town to which this happens counts, in German language, as "abgehängt".) But the most important reason why the German railways cannot/won't copy the French concept is that long-distance travel in Germany depends to a much larger extent on the changing of trains. The French networks are basically monocentric, with Paris in the middle. In Germany, if one did not service all the nodal stations the connectivity throughout a far more complex network would suffer.
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Old September 26th, 2016, 02:46 PM   #872
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The ICE 4 has 830 seats, ICE 1 has approx. 700.
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Old September 26th, 2016, 04:14 PM   #873
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Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
It's slightly more (770 km by road), that's why I proposed 3 1/2 h as a realistic target with 2 intermediate stops.
As the crow flies : Hamb-Munch : 623 km ; Paris-Marseille : 678 Km.
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Old September 26th, 2016, 07:35 PM   #874
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Originally Posted by telemaxx View Post
The ICE 4 has 830 seats, ICE 1 has approx. 700.
And ICE 2 in double-train configuration about 760 while ICE 3 in double-train configuration has 900-920.
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Old September 26th, 2016, 07:49 PM   #875
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Precisely the opposite is actually true. The largest cities and its surrounding towns are growing while the rest of the country is shrinking.
The largest conurbation in Germany is barely holding its population (and they celebrate that as a success) while the five next-largest got their population revised downward by tens- to hundreds of thousands with the last census.
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Old September 26th, 2016, 08:49 PM   #876
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Japan and France seem to have adopted similar strategies. High-speed lines should MOSTLY concentrate on the large population centres. Just like airplanes don't touch down in every small town, the majority of high-speed trains should likewise do the same.

The new Chuo Shinkansen under construction in Japan (between Tokyo and Nagoya) will have one station in each prefecture... but it's likely that 80% of trains will make NO stops in those smaller cities. Intermediate stops will get hourly service. Japan's stations are typically much closer together ( on the Tokaido ) than German and French ones, so the current practice is the same. All-stops service is hourly. 90% of trains make almost no stops.

At the speeds on the Chuo line (505km/h), the biggest time-savings will always be the number of stops.

It's a 286km line from Tokyo to Nagoya. There will be 4 intermediary stations between Tokyo and Nagoya. To maintain its speed it won't even have a stop in Yokohama, the 2nd largest city (but really, it's part of Greater Tokyo).

This isn't official, but here's one analysis of what the stopping pattern could look like:
Original image and partially translated:


Note, initially there will be 5 trains / hour, this schedule would allow for increasing this to


The different is pretty stark. Direct service is 40 minutes (286km) vs. 77 minutes. That's almost double the time just to make 4 stops. It would be passed by a train that leaves almost 30 minutes later. And this is with an acceleration time (to 500km/h) of <2 minutes!

The point of all this is that if high-speed rail wants to truly compete going forward at even faster speeds, it really needs to spend less time slowing down and speeding up.

Note that TGV, ICE, etc. trains are comparatively much slower to accelerate, so this difference would be even MORE dramatic.
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Old September 27th, 2016, 01:09 AM   #877
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Japan and France seem to have adopted similar strategies. High-speed lines should MOSTLY concentrate on the large population centres. Just like airplanes don't touch down in every small town, the majority of high-speed trains should likewise do the same.
I don't know much about Japanese railways, having never travelled on them. But if you are seriously proposing that Germany adopt the french railway model then I would suggest you actually have no interest in rail travel apart from being able to play fantasy railway network.
Take me for example, I don't have a car but I love to visit new places primarily by Train and plane, sometimes ferry. I have visited most regions in Germany and countless cities and obscure villages (also Switzerland, Holland, Belgium and even Luxembourg) precisely because using trains is so convenient; but very few regions in France. My forays in to France (italy and Spain too) have been frustrated by ridiculous fare structures on main routes combined with rubbish timetabling on the remaining network. The frequency and ease of ticketing in Germany (and Swiss/ Benelux) is something to be admired. Sure the TGV goes fast between some cities but what about those who need to get connections. When you get to Paris you have to drag your luggage thru the metro system to get your next long distance connection. many citys have seperate TGV and regular stations and too many routes have a sporadic service, which seems to better match the meal times of the SNCF staff than the average passenger.

Yes in an ideal world there would be direct services between all the major cities, bypassing all the intermediate cities without negatively impacted their connections, but who is going to pay for this railwaysexual wetdream, the French have gone for the direct connections at the expense of the rest of the system, the Germans the opposite approach. I know which I prefer.

Intreestingly, I read recently (I will have a look to see if I can find the article again) that the TGV earns more income from the classic route sections than the LGV ones.
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Old September 27th, 2016, 01:28 AM   #878
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Originally Posted by kato2k8 View Post
The largest conurbation in Germany is barely holding its population (and they celebrate that as a success) while the five next-largest got their population revised downward by tens- to hundreds of thousands with the last census.
All the major German cities (Hamburg, Berlin, Frankfurt, Cologne/Dusseldorf, Munich, Stuttgart) are growing. Except of course the rust belt cities (Essen, Duisburg) etc) of the Ruhr area.

This is generally a good development for high speed rail as the population will be more concentrated.


Rheinschiene = Cologne, Dusseldorf, Bonn etc
Ruhrgebiet = Essen, Duisburg, Dortmund etc
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Old September 27th, 2016, 08:23 AM   #879
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I don't know much about Japanese railways, having never travelled on them. But if you are seriously proposing that Germany adopt the french railway model then I would suggest you actually have no interest in rail travel apart from being able to play fantasy railway network.
It's not about an interest in rail travel. It's not about the romantic aspects of taking a train somewhere. It's the functional and long-term benefits of rail over alternatives such as flying.

I never proposed Germany adopt France's system, just as I wouldn't expect France to adopt Germany's.

As for the Japanese system, think along the lines of Swiss-efficiency, german quality, and French committment to city centres.

There's no reason why Germany can't have both. Like I mentioned, Japan seems to have done this. They focus mostly on the city centres, as that's the only way to really compete with airplanes (which also do not stop at smaller cities).

Slower trains are seen as feeders for the faster routes. Transfers are usually smooth, simple and always on time. Trains don't stop for more than a minute at a station.


Quote:
Take me for example, I don't have a car but I love to visit new places primarily by Train and plane, sometimes ferry. I have visited most regions in Germany and countless cities and obscure villages (also Switzerland, Holland, Belgium and even Luxembourg) precisely because using trains is so convenient; but very few regions in France.
You could still do this. You'd simple take the all-stops version or take the regular line, as opposed to the HSR line.

Quote:
My forays in to France (italy and Spain too) have been frustrated by ridiculous fare structures on main routes combined with rubbish timetabling on the remaining network.
This has little to do with the way the trains are built to serve major cities and more to do with the system as a whole. Germany can adopt the system of making HSR truly an intercity system in a Germany fashion, with Germany fastidiousness and efficiency.
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The frequency and ease of ticketing in Germany (and Swiss/ Benelux) is something to be admired.
Yes, it is. As is the system in Japan. In fact, in addition to it being efficient, it runs as often as a subway along major route. And to add to that, ticket prices are pretty much fixed, so it doesn't matter when you buy it. Germany still has a system where booking in advance gets you a much cheaper price, for the most part.

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Sure the TGV goes fast between some cities but what about those who need to get connections. When you get to Paris you have to drag your luggage thru the metro system to get your next long distance connection. many citys have seperate TGV and regular stations and too many routes have a sporadic service, which seems to better match the meal times of the SNCF staff than the average passenger.
Then don't emulate those parts. Make transfers efficient, skip medium sized cities offering them reduced service appropriate to their size.
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Yes in an ideal world there would be direct services between all the major cities, bypassing all the intermediate cities without negatively impacted their connections, but who is going to pay for this railwaysexual wetdream, the French have gone for the direct connections at the expense of the rest of the system, the Germans the opposite approach. I know which I prefer.
The more efficient you make these intercity trains, the more you can charge for tickets. Planes are 2nd class transport in many routes in Japan and train fares are priced accordingly, to compete with trains. They are run for-profit and are wildly profitable. People will pay for convenience. If you want a slow romp through the countryside, you take a regular train. HSR trains are designed for transporting people efficiently and quickly.

In short, Germany can learn a lot from Japan and its system. They're similar countries in many ways and lets face it, Germans would just as soon to admit to copying the French as the French would admit to copying the Germans. They're both far too proud to admit anything else.

At least if they used Japan (or even China for that matter) as a model, they wouldn't have to worry about people thinking that the Huns are going all Romancey.

Note: I am not Japanese. I am European but I have spent time in NA, Euro, and Asia.
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Old September 27th, 2016, 06:32 PM   #880
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In short, Germany can learn a lot from Japan and its system. They're similar countries in many ways and lets face it, Germans would just as soon to admit to copying the French as the French would admit to copying the Germans.
I am sure Germany can learn a lot from Japan. I myself am a bit tired of hearing German apologists explain that with the dense population in Germany a true high-speed concept is not feasible. In these situations I catch myself thinking "what about Japan, which has a much denser population?".

But there is one important difference. The Japanese HS "network" is basically one long string branching out in two directions from Tokyo. (The one exception is the tracks via Takasaki.) In my opinion that makes it a lot easier to run trains stopping at every second or every third station, for a couple of reasons: (1) a very large proportion of the passengers come from, or travel to, the enormous Tokyo agglomeration so a top priority is to maximise travel speeds on a point-to-point basis between various cities and Tokyo; and (2) the Japanese passengers are far more likely to need only one train (here I guess. I haven't seen statistics, but it seems highly probably given the shape of the country) than in Germany where long-distance travel very often means than one has to change.
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