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Old January 14th, 2012, 03:47 PM   #3401
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Paranoid nonsense (regarding weibo accounts). Keep things on topic and leave Chinese politics and tin-foil conspiracies out of this thread please.
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Old January 14th, 2012, 08:24 PM   #3402
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It is totally dimwit to think and write the statement above.

China MoR should have adopted real-name ticketing system a long, long, long time ago for all class of passenger trains.
The real-name ticketing system saves tons of resources and headaches for everyone.
Again, I'm waiting for some actual reasoning and not name-calling. How does the real-name ticketing system save resources? Whose resources?

My memory is fuzzy but when I rode Italian trains in 2005, I don't recall them requiring real-name tickets. Instead, passengers bought tickets for certain routes that were valid for several months. Passengers validated their ticket by sticking it in a little machine on the platform before boarding. When the conductor came to check the ticket, they only checked that it was the correct route and had been validated. They never checked my ID.
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Old January 14th, 2012, 08:44 PM   #3403
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Again, I'm waiting for some actual reasoning and not name-calling. How does the real-name ticketing system save resources? Whose resources?

My memory is fuzzy but when I rode Italian trains in 2005, I don't recall them requiring real-name tickets. Instead, passengers bought tickets for certain routes that were valid for several months. Passengers validated their ticket by sticking it in a little machine on the platform before boarding. When the conductor came to check the ticket, they only checked that it was the correct route and had been validated. They never checked my ID.
It seems like you are arguing about convenience... have to check ID, blah blah blah. However, you don't seem to understand that in the greater scheme of things, ticket scalping is generally inconvenient. You complain about not being able to pass your ticket to a friend, fine.

Wait till the scalpers buy thousands of tickets for the holiday trains... then when there are no more seats 'available to purchase' you'll have to go FIND the scalpers on your own, and pay 30-50 times the normal fare. Sounds better to me if you just bought another ticket.

Also, why the MOR needs to do this and Italian trains don't is because Europe doesn't have that kind of problem. A guy selling a ticket to a friend? No problem. Got a single vendor buying hundreds if not thousands of tickets? No.

Oh, and I honestly think you're quite a hypocrite: you accuse others of simply attacking you and not supplying evidence, yet you clearly ignore what I've stated above.

Just get a refund.
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Old January 14th, 2012, 10:47 PM   #3404
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Won't the fact that they're shifting to online sales ease this? As I'm sure they will expand the time frame within which you can purchase a ticket.

Also, I've been searching for ridership data: peak travel times, destinations, etc (particularly during new years. Send to me that the system is low in efficiency but from the recent developments (real names requirements, internet sales etc), it seems they get it
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Old January 14th, 2012, 11:31 PM   #3405
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Real-name ticketing isn't ideal, but in the current situation where demand still outstrips supply it's the lesser evil when the other is ticket touts galore. Also responding to an earlier point Geography made, ticket price regulation actually benefit the poor migrant workers the most, as they have the least flexibility in terms of travel dates. What you don't want is the middle classes going on their holidays and the migrant workers unable to go home. That is not to say though that ticket liberalisation shouldn't happen during normal times, especially on the high-speed lines where parallel green-skins are no longer available.
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Old January 15th, 2012, 01:30 AM   #3406
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Again, I'm waiting for some actual reasoning and not name-calling.
You are arguing for the sake of argument, we have given enough reasons but you refuse to accept them, that's your problem and any further argument is simply waste of people's time.
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Old January 15th, 2012, 02:22 AM   #3407
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^Safe to say, Geography studied Von Mises, Von Hayek, and Friedman, and he's a fan of the laissez-faire economics of Thatcher, Reagan, and Pinochet?

These economists and their political adherents stress the importance of equilibrium graphs and models. The theories sound so elegant. Unfortunately they're not supported by empirical evidence. When people point out that the models are detached from reality, these economists and their adherents respond by saying that reality is too complex to be mapped.

Allowing for the "free market" to sort out the finite numbers of train tickets is akin to letting the free market dictate access to education or water. Sounds good in theory. But in practice it results in various groups getting rich off unearned income, and everyone else paying higher costs and/or having reduced access.

If you think of it, a truly "free market" wouldn't bother building a public transit network. The initial costs are too high to make it truly competitive.

If you want to hear about libertarianism and its disciples, head over to skyscraperpage now. That site has a lot of libertarian shills/true believers who reflexively see government regulation leading to the road to serfdom. Kinda ironic, as "market democracy" and functioning urbanism don't go together.
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Old January 15th, 2012, 02:48 PM   #3408
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A volunteer guides passengers to their train at Chengdu Railway Station in Chengdu, capital of southwest China's Sichuan Province, Jan. 7, 2012. Starting from Jan. 8, 2012, China's transport system will undergo a 40-day travel rush, which is characterized by a hightened passenger flow around the time of the oncoming Chinese New Year. (Xinhua/Xue Yubin)
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Old January 15th, 2012, 07:24 PM   #3409
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Wait till the scalpers buy thousands of tickets for the holiday trains... then when there are no more seats 'available to purchase' you'll have to go FIND the scalpers on your own, and pay 30-50 times the normal fare. Sounds better to me if you just bought another ticket.

Also, why the MOR needs to do this and Italian trains don't is because Europe doesn't have that kind of problem. A guy selling a ticket to a friend? No problem. Got a single vendor buying hundreds if not thousands of tickets? No.
Why are scalpers there in the first place? Because the face value of the ticket is less than the true market value of the ticket. What that means is people are willing to pay more for the ticket but do not have to because the train company subsidizes the price (and thus forgoes additional revenue). Scalpers are simply buying low and selling high.

Scalpers could potentially sell tickets for less than face value. If it's 10 minutes till departure and the scalper has 20 tickets that will be worth $0 in 11 minutes, they will start lowering the price to attract buyers. Knowing this, poorer customers could hang around the station to buy the cheaper tickets. A smart scalper in a monopoly situation will use price discrimination--charging a different price to each customer. A smart scalper would charge a higher price to a customer wearing a suit than one looking like a factory worker.

Those who label me libertarian or anti-public transport are way off base. I love metro systems and support their widespread use in dense urban environments, even when they don't make a profit in-of-themselves because of the positive externalities they generate in 1) taking cars off the road, 2) increasing property values around stations. The second point is so powerful that one of the only metro systems to turn a profit, the Hong Kong MTR, does so by developing the land around stations.

Metros generally have to subsidize tickets in order to attract riders. They also do not sell tickets. Access is controlled by electronic gates and debit cards. There is no desire nor ability for scalpers to inject themselves in the process. The Chinese railway does not have to subsidize tickets to attract riders, the demand is overwhelming. I understand and sympathize the desire to use the railways as a mass transport option for poorer migrants, but subsidizing the price with real-name tickets will not necessarily help them. What is to guarantee poor migrants get the tickets first? It seems more likely that the middle class, with more time on their hands, can go down to the station in the evening and weekends to buy a ticket first, or log onto a computer first (most middle class work in an office whereas most migrants work in a blue collar job).

Keeping the desire to help the migrant poor, an alternative is to let trains charge market value for the ticket, within reason because the government has a monopoly on railway travel and could easily abuse its position. The extra revenue generated by higher ticket prices could be funneled into other social welfare projects, like unemployment insurance, urban schools for the children of migrants, and low cost clinics. In the future, when China has a more advanced tax collection system, they could give a cash grant to all citizens making below a certain income per year. Citizens could then determine what good or service maximizes their utility and spend it how they like. Maybe it's a railway ticket home for New Year, maybe it's a party with friends.

Last edited by Geography; January 15th, 2012 at 07:33 PM.
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Old January 15th, 2012, 07:49 PM   #3410
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Indeed. It is high demand and low price which causes the tickets to sell out. And means that tickets are allocated via queuing, not price.

If China were to raise ticket prices to a high level then naturally trains would go nearly empty, as was complained regarding some deluxe soft sleepers.

But if the tickets were made more expensive to the extent that the trains get say 95% full, then nearly everyone who can now travel still would. They would just pay more.

If charging full market price from the poor immigrants is socially undesirable then there could be more targeted assistance. Like registering the immigrant workers and their homeplaces and giving them subsidized train tickets for holidays, while middle class going to tourist trips could still be charged market fares.

But which are the practical ideas?
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Old January 15th, 2012, 08:16 PM   #3411
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Geography - rest assured that the mere fact that the trains will be full of smelly and rowdy countrysiders would keep any middle-class towners well away from the railway. It's a harsh thing to say to both 'classes', but 100% true.
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Old January 15th, 2012, 08:49 PM   #3412
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Originally Posted by NCT View Post
Geography - rest assured that the mere fact that the trains will be full of smelly and rowdy countrysiders would keep any middle-class towners well away from the railway. It's a harsh thing to say to both 'classes', but 100% true.
Or on the railway and the very same trains BUT in different classes - first class, soft sleeper and that ilk, while the immigrants go to second class, hard sleepers and hard seats.
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Old January 15th, 2012, 09:15 PM   #3413
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Or on the railway and the very same trains BUT in different classes - first class, soft sleeper and that ilk, while the immigrants go to second class, hard sleepers and hard seats.
It will not work for the Chinese New Year travel season because the demand still far outpace capacity. They have to run all hard seat trains with every conceivable space taken by people with standing ticket just to get almost everyone home. In past years MOR got desperate enough to bring out relics such as China Star to haul temp trains on certain routes. Plane tickets are high enough, but they are selling out quickly too, have you heard the news about people go through Thailand to Kunming because they couldn't get direct flights between Beijing and Kunming? If the train has mixed classes then it only translates to less capacity, and more people left behind, that's a no no because riots will erupt.

MOR is not a private enterprise, it is a government agency therefore profit is not its first priority, and free market rules should not dictates its pricing regime. For someone suggesting that MOR should earn more profit so it can be funneled to other areas, you do understand this is China we are talking about, right? Different government ministries have to fight for their own budget every FY, and there isn't much incentive for the MOR to get more profit only so it can be given to other agencies, while itself being cursed to death by travelers who can't get a cheap ticket. And this solution will be ten times more complicated, having way more chances of corruption to occur, and takes years to take root in people's mindset. Real name ticketing system is way easier to implement, affect people's travel habit the least, and very convenient for Chinese citizens to use.
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Old January 15th, 2012, 11:39 PM   #3414
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Originally Posted by hkskyline View Post


A volunteer guides passengers to their train at Chengdu Railway Station in Chengdu, capital of southwest China's Sichuan Province, Jan. 7, 2012. Starting from Jan. 8, 2012, China's transport system will undergo a 40-day travel rush, which is characterized by a hightened passenger flow around the time of the oncoming Chinese New Year. (Xinhua/Xue Yubin)

Thank you so much hkskyline for posting the volunteers photo.



Thousands of blessings to the growing volunteering forces across China.



Expressing my utmost admiration and gratitude to all China volunteers.
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Old January 16th, 2012, 04:52 AM   #3415
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Market value and equilibrium simply will not work in the Spring Festival rush. There is too much demand as hundreds of millions of people are on the run to get home for the holidays. If prices were to rise to put supply and demand back at equilibrium, it will mean those hundreds of millions will not be able to travel at all since they will be priced out. Civil unrest will then take over. We saw the mess in Guangzhou a few years back when bad weather forced train cancellations during this busy travel period. There is a need to take care of the migrant poor. Ripping these people off in exchange for other social programs is not going to work, and is not a viable solution when these same people will be out with their sticks and forks taking down the politicians who are behind these sorts of schemes.

The whole purpose of the ID system is to prevent scalpers from taking advantage of this demand blip and trying to make the whole process as fair as possible to everyone. That way, at least those who are in line at the station trying to get a ticket will feel comfort they may actually have a chance rather than to try to find a scalper to rip them off.
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Old January 17th, 2012, 03:37 PM   #3416
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Could it have anything to do with the airlines?
I mean, normally, you'd expect the airline industry to directly compete with the railways (each trying to underwrite the other's costs) THAT is what will stabilize (if we're talking about market forces) the ticket prices in the trains...and will force the costs of air travel.

But if both are run by the State, there's no incentive to compete to that degree?

*just thinking out loud here...
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Old January 17th, 2012, 08:06 PM   #3417
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MOR is not a private enterprise, it is a government agency therefore profit is not its first priority, and free market rules should not dictates its pricing regime. For someone suggesting that MOR should earn more profit so it can be funneled to other areas, you do understand this is China we are talking about, right? Different government ministries have to fight for their own budget every FY, and there isn't much incentive for the MOR to get more profit only so it can be given to other agencies, while itself being cursed to death by travelers who can't get a cheap ticket. And this solution will be ten times more complicated, having way more chances of corruption to occur, and takes years to take root in people's mindset. Real name ticketing system is way easier to implement, affect people's travel habit the least, and very convenient for Chinese citizens to use.
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Market value and equilibrium simply will not work in the Spring Festival rush. There is too much demand as hundreds of millions of people are on the run to get home for the holidays. If prices were to rise to put supply and demand back at equilibrium, it will mean those hundreds of millions will not be able to travel at all since they will be priced out. Civil unrest will then take over. We saw the mess in Guangzhou a few years back when bad weather forced train cancellations during this busy travel period. There is a need to take care of the migrant poor. Ripping these people off in exchange for other social programs is not going to work, and is not a viable solution when these same people will be out with their sticks and forks taking down the politicians who are behind these sorts of schemes.

The whole purpose of the ID system is to prevent scalpers from taking advantage of this demand blip and trying to make the whole process as fair as possible to everyone. That way, at least those who are in line at the station trying to get a ticket will feel comfort they may actually have a chance rather than to try to find a scalper to rip them off.
Good points. Lunar New Year represents a classic demand shock, a sudden huge increase in demand that cannot be met with a similar increase in supply, despite the predictability of demand. It would be a huge waste of money to build enough railway capacity to satisfy all the Lunar New Year travel demand for a couple weeks, then have that capacity sit idle the other 50 weeks of the year. As a result, it is inevitable some people cannot travel during the New Year holidays.

I sympathize with the government's desire to favor the migrant poor who have less freedom in terms of travel dates than the middle class. NCT makes an interesting point that if the government can keep the price low enough, the presence of masses of lower-class workers will deter anyone of higher income from trying to take advantage of the cheap tickets. It's like when football stadiums in America sell standing-room only tickets to students, knowing the existence of such tickets will not cannibalize sales of normal tickets because they are different market segments: bottom market and more up-market.

If turning a profit is not a concern of the Ministry of Railroards, then why not set the cheapest tickets during Lunar New Year to zero? What is the rationale for any kind of pricing at the MoR if not to maximize revenue? Metros and bus systems set prices to maximize ridership given the budget constraints of a certain amount of subsidy each other. Does the MoR have a similar policy?
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Old January 17th, 2012, 09:06 PM   #3418
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Originally Posted by phoenixboi08 View Post
Could it have anything to do with the airlines?
I mean, normally, you'd expect the airline industry to directly compete with the railways (each trying to underwrite the other's costs) THAT is what will stabilize (if we're talking about market forces) the ticket prices in the trains...and will force the costs of air travel.

But if both are run by the State, there's no incentive to compete to that degree?

*just thinking out loud here...
Chunyun will involve three billion trips. Of these, less than 50 million trips will be by air. The airline industry can do nothing about railway congestion. We have to remember the sheer size and price-consciousness of ordinary people.

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Good points. Lunar New Year represents a classic demand shock, a sudden huge increase in demand that cannot be met with a similar increase in supply, despite the predictability of demand. It would be a huge waste of money to build enough railway capacity to satisfy all the Lunar New Year travel demand for a couple weeks, then have that capacity sit idle the other 50 weeks of the year. As a result, it is inevitable some people cannot travel during the New Year holidays.

I sympathize with the government's desire to favor the migrant poor who have less freedom in terms of travel dates than the middle class. NCT makes an interesting point that if the government can keep the price low enough, the presence of masses of lower-class workers will deter anyone of higher income from trying to take advantage of the cheap tickets. It's like when football stadiums in America sell standing-room only tickets to students, knowing the existence of such tickets will not cannibalize sales of normal tickets because they are different market segments: bottom market and more up-market.

If turning a profit is not a concern of the Ministry of Railroards, then why not set the cheapest tickets during Lunar New Year to zero? What is the rationale for any kind of pricing at the MoR if not to maximize revenue? Metros and bus systems set prices to maximize ridership given the budget constraints of a certain amount of subsidy each other. Does the MoR have a similar policy?
1) The government simply cannot tell some people not to go home over the Lunar New Year. It will be like western governments telling their people they can't go home for Christmas. They could encourage employers to stage vacation time, but demand will still be colossal.

2) Even outside the Chunyun period, regular trains are packed to standing room even on overnight trips. During Chunyun the carriages are stuffed until they're literally like sardine cans. Demand is so inelastic that it doesn't matter what price migrant workers pay either to the scalper or the ticket office, so setting the price to zero is not logical.

3) The wealthy will either travel by air or by high speed rail. Unless they were dumb enough not to plan in advance they simply won't travel by regular rail.
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Old January 17th, 2012, 09:18 PM   #3419
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Geography, if you're not libertarian and you are FOR subsidized intracity public transit, why are you so against train tickets being sold at a discounted rate? It doesn't make you a libertarian or a socialist, it just makes your editorial inconsistent. As others have noted, the MOR is a public utility with a mandate to provide service. The railroad system is a natural monopoly and provides a necessary service. Thus it should not be allowed to maximize profit like some Lady GaGa concert or lemonade stand.

The classical economists cited subsidized infrastructure, education, medicine, etc. as a fourth factor of production. The government was to provide these services (at a loss) because it served in the best interests of society as a whole.

The solution to this problem is capacity expansion (kills the "they're building way too much" responses.) Extracting maximum return in a bid to weed out the poorer passengers will only make sense to the Von Hayek/Von Mises/Friedman crowd.


Quote:
Keep things on topic and leave Chinese politics and tin-foil conspiracies out of this thread please.
Sorry Svartmetall, but it's hard to read the english-language media in "market democracies" and not see unending articles about the Chinese railway spending and the inevitable financial collapse. Unfortunately the Von Hayek inspired theory dominates academia and financial media. It's all about praising equilibrium and privatization to ward off the "road to serfdom." They've lauded privatizing schools, medicine (sometimes), transport, the urban planning process in general. I glanced through the latest edition of the Economist today. Surprise surprise it had yet another article on the problems of the Chinese railways.

The Economist won't influence economic policy in China. It does however, influence the mindsets of its readers. I won't go into conspiracies, but as a fan of urban development, you can see how profit-maximization (promoted by some coopted econ profs and the coopted media) has a nefarious influence on urban development.
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Old January 18th, 2012, 12:42 AM   #3420
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Beijing South readies hot standby train.
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2012-01-17/163023815242.shtml

Beijing South has a CRH380AL on standby at platform 1 constantly powered and manned to replace any trains that may have problems on the Beijing-Shanghai line. Two shifts of rotating crew have a 15 minute on call mandate to start service.
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