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Old April 30th, 2013, 11:37 AM   #5841
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
At the end of 2011, Shenzhen had 2,67 million citizens.

Most of these citizens are "migrants". The population of Shenzhen before the founding of special economic zone in 1979 was just 300 000, nearly all of them Shenzhen citizens, and the citizens of Shenzhen were not exempt from one child policy.

So Shenzhen has about 2,4 million citizens who are also "migrants", but who at that are legal migrants - they received Shenzhen hukou and the rights of Shenzhen citizen like putting their children to school in Shenzhen.

But the other 7,78 million residents of Shenzhen are illegal immigrants, because they have not received Shenzhen hukou.

Since illegal immigrant residents are counted and registered... does anyone have an overview of where specifically the homes of those 7,78 million illegal immigrants are? Such a map would be useful in planning railways, because obviously convenient railways are needed connecting the homes of these illegal immigrants with their residences.... and ditto about other cities where large numbers of illegal immigrants reside.
I never usually hear the term "legal migrant" being applied to someone who has legal residence status. To most people "migrant worker" means someone who does not have hukou.
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Old April 30th, 2013, 12:14 PM   #5842
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Concerning Shenzhen... is Xiamen-Shenzhen high speed railway on schedule for opening in October 2013? And how many stations does it have?

This:
http://www.whatsonxiamen.com/news30600.html
says it was only just connected, and is only due for "end of the year" - does it mean that it has been delayed, from October to December 2013?
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Old April 30th, 2013, 03:42 PM   #5843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
But the other 7,78 million residents of Shenzhen are illegal immigrants, because they have not received Shenzhen hukou.
They cannot be illegal immigrants, only illegal migrants.

Immigrants move to another country and these workers are within China.
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Old April 30th, 2013, 04:18 PM   #5844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
They cannot be illegal immigrants, only illegal migrants.

Immigrants move to another country
No. Immigrant means that the migrant travels into the place referred to. Every immigrant is also an emigrant from some other place.

For example, the province of China with largest number of citizens is Henan. But it is not the province with largest number of residents, because large number of Henan citizens have become illegal emigrants and gone into other provinces and municipalities.

Henan now has high speed train connection to Shenzhen - in Guangdong province which has the largest number of residents but not the largest number of citizens, on account of the large number of illegal immigrants - and also to Beijing.

But not to Shanghai. Zhengzhou-Xuzhou high speed railway is under construction, but not due for completion before December 2016.

I see no brown lines in Henan. As for red lines, besides the said Zhengzhou-Xuzhou high speed railway, there are a couple of red lines running northwest-southears in southern Henan, but these are single (slow) and also parallel to black (existing) lines.

But I also see a double line going northwest of Zhengzhou, and branching in two (east and west) branches. Is it merely a double track line, or a high speed line (at least 200 km/h)? Where does it go, and when is it due for completion?
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Old May 1st, 2013, 02:41 AM   #5845
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What's with your obsession with illegal immigrants? There is nothing illegal about someone from Henan residing and working in Beijing. They may not get the full benefits due to their Hukou, but they aren't illegal.

Foreigners that overstay their VISA and/or working with their tourist visas (like many of the English teachers), however are illegal.

For the population density issue, here are some maps.

Population density by county


And how it is relative to the rest of the world


Also Chinese population census is done at where people live, rather than where people's registration is
http://www.stats.gov.cn/stwy/tjwx/t2..._402688679.htm
第六次全国人口普查使用的常驻人口=户口在本辖区人也在本辖区居住+户口在本辖区之外但在户口登记地半年以上的人+户口待定(无户口和口袋户口)+户口在本辖区但离开本辖区半年以下的人。

Last edited by luhai; May 1st, 2013 at 02:47 AM.
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Old May 1st, 2013, 03:01 AM   #5846
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
But the other 7,78 million residents of Shenzhen are illegal immigrants, because they have not received Shenzhen hukou.
Does not having a hukou of the place you are staying in, make you illegal?

I thought a hukou just gives you benefits in the place your hukou is from, I didn't know a hukou means you are tethered to your original town for ever and ever.

I travelled to China and never had any hukou, and I can assure you I was never illegal.
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Old May 1st, 2013, 11:27 AM   #5847
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luhai View Post
What's with your obsession with illegal immigrants? There is nothing illegal about someone from Henan residing and working in Beijing. They may not get the full benefits due to their Hukou, but they aren't illegal.
Still, it is important to distinguish them from the migrants who do receive the hukou of the place they have migrated to.

If someone from Henan works and resides in Beijing AND gets Beijing hukou with the benefits of Beijing citizen, like putting his children to school in Beijing, then he likely does this. Even if though he is originally from Henan, and even if his parents are alive in Henan, if he can put his schildren to school in Beijing then he would not send his children to live with grandparents in Henan and go to school in Henan. He may visit his old parents in Henan at New Year, because China just passed a law that his parents can sue him if he does not, but he does not have such strong reasons to go back to Henan (and take his children out of their schools in Beijing) even if he finds a job there.

It is the illegal immigrants, who cannot enjoy the hukou benefits of the place where they live and work, who have the reason to go back home if possible, and as often as possible. Therefore causing demand for high speed railways.
Quote:
Originally Posted by luhai View Post
Also Chinese population census is done at where people live, rather than where people's registration is
http://www.stats.gov.cn/stwy/tjwx/t2..._402688679.htm
第六次全国人口普查使用的常驻人口=户口在本辖区人也在本辖区居住+户口在本辖区之外但在户口登记地半年以上的人+户口待定(无户口和口袋户口)+户口在本辖区但离开本辖区半年以下的人。
A map connecting people´s residences and their hukous would no doubt be more complex, if complete... What would a map of the hukous of Beijing residents look like?

Regarding Henan: a likely placename in northwest of Henan is Jiaozuo. Has anything been mentioned of a new railway between Zhengzhou and Jiaozuo, and what would the speed be?
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Old May 1st, 2013, 02:56 PM   #5848
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"Taking stock of where the population of China live:
Tibet - 0,2 %
Qinghai - 0,5 %
Xinjiang - 1,6 %
Inner Mongolia - 1,9 %
these 4 - 4,2 %
Gansu - 1,9 %
Ningxia - 0,5 %
Heilongjiang - 2,9 %
these 3 - 5,3 %
all 7 together - 9,5 %
rest of China - 90,5 %, qualifying as 90+%
The territory of these 7:
Tibet - 12,75 %
Qinghai - 7,48 %
Xinjiang - 17,23 %
Inner Mongolia - 12,28 %
these 4 - 49,74 %
Gansu - 4,71 %
Ningxia - 0,68 %
Heilongjiang - 4,77 %
these 3 - 10,16 %
all 7 together - 59,90 %

What I get is that 90 % population of China lives on 40+ % of territory, not just 30 %."

If you took out Yunnan and the western half of Sichuan, I think it's accurate to say 85% of the people live in a eastern 1/3 of China.
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Old May 1st, 2013, 03:10 PM   #5849
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"Originally Posted by Sunfuns
Of course they are complimentary and the need for local railways is exactly what I was talking about. And by the way to reach the Swiss network density (might be the densest in Europe) China still has another million kilometres to go. To reach Japanese levels another 600,000 km would suffice."

Swiss level of density would only be sensible for the eastern 1/3. Does that mean the country could realistically absorb about another 300,000 km in rail construction? Or perhaps Switzerland at this point doesn't need anywhere as much railway as it has.
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Old May 1st, 2013, 03:14 PM   #5850
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As to whether 18,000 km of high speed rail is the 2015 or 2020 plan, according to this China Daily article, the network will reach 18,000 km by 2015.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/busines...t_15825252.htm

So given the lack of new construction, there doesn't seem to be a Round II post-2015 plan--yet.
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Old May 1st, 2013, 11:11 PM   #5851
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Quote:
Originally Posted by damndynamite View Post
So given the lack of new construction, there doesn't seem to be a Round II post-2015 plan--yet.
What is the combined length of red and orange high speed railways, respectively?
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Old May 2nd, 2013, 09:00 PM   #5852
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Concerning Shenzhen... is Xiamen-Shenzhen high speed railway on schedule for opening in October 2013? And how many stations does it have?

This:
http://www.whatsonxiamen.com/news30600.html
says it was only just connected, and is only due for "end of the year" - does it mean that it has been delayed, from October to December 2013?
Which is consistent with Shenzhen-Xiamen Railway's original schedule, all tracks should be laid by April, ready for joint calibration and testing by July, trial runs start in August, and official opening in October.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Still, it is important to distinguish them from the migrants who do receive the hukou of the place they have migrated to.

If someone from Henan works and resides in Beijing AND gets Beijing hukou with the benefits of Beijing citizen, like putting his children to school in Beijing, then he likely does this. Even if though he is originally from Henan, and even if his parents are alive in Henan, if he can put his schildren to school in Beijing then he would not send his children to live with grandparents in Henan and go to school in Henan. He may visit his old parents in Henan at New Year, because China just passed a law that his parents can sue him if he does not, but he does not have such strong reasons to go back to Henan (and take his children out of their schools in Beijing) even if he finds a job there.

It is the illegal immigrants, who cannot enjoy the hukou benefits of the place where they live and work, who have the reason to go back home if possible, and as often as possible. Therefore causing demand for high speed railways.
Besides residence permit holders, Chinese municipalities also count migrant resident vs permanent resident, these two categories each is comprised of people with and without resident permits. So the likely rail travel will be all migrant residents, and permanent resident w/o local residence permit.

And using the term "illegal immigrant" is absolutely incorrect, there is nothing illegal about their status, the correct way to say it is probably temporary resident if you really don't want to use the universally accepted term "migrant worker." Migrants who receive local hukou become the permanent resident of the said locale, they are not "migrant" anymore. Following your concept we might as well call everyone in the US besides Native Americans "migrant," and people with a visa "illegal immigrant."
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Old May 2nd, 2013, 09:31 PM   #5853
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Quote:
Originally Posted by damndynamite View Post

Swiss level of density would only be sensible for the eastern 1/3. Does that mean the country could realistically absorb about another 300,000 km in rail construction? Or perhaps Switzerland at this point doesn't need anywhere as much railway as it has.
Swiss density would probably be an overkill, I just provided that number to show that Chinese network is still no all that dense. Population distribution in China is quite different (larger percentage of people to be served with metro systems and light rail) plus we have here in Switzerland a lot of local lines to villages. In most other countries in Europe such lines were killed off many decades ago. Still another 100-200,000 km in the entire China would be quite reasonable.
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Old May 2nd, 2013, 09:37 PM   #5854
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Listing the brown lines:

Tianjin-Qinhuangdao - August 2013
Nanjing-Hangzhou-Ningbo - July 2013
Nanchang-Fuzhou, with one branch at Fuzhou end (to Putian?) - ??? This:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/fuzho...t_15526745.htm
promises September 2013
Hengyang-Liuzhou - ???
Nanning-Qinzhou, branch to Fanchenggang - ???
Chongqing-Lichuan - December 2013

Did I miss any?
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Old May 2nd, 2013, 11:17 PM   #5855
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When Suining-Chongqing-Lichuan section will open?
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 12:18 AM   #5856
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
Swiss density would probably be an overkill, I just provided that number to show that Chinese network is still no all that dense.
Actually, the densest railway network - despite not very dense population - is found in Czech Republic. About 9500 km railways, territory 79 000 square km, population 10,5 millions.

China is about 125 times bigger than Czech Republic in both population and area - therefore needs about 1 200 000 km railway lines.
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 02:40 AM   #5857
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Nooooo, China needs 2 billion km rail You guys are forgetting to add metro lines China needs
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 04:05 AM   #5858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Actually, the densest railway network - despite not very dense population - is found in Czech Republic. About 9500 km railways, territory 79 000 square km, population 10,5 millions.

China is about 125 times bigger than Czech Republic in both population and area - therefore needs about 1 200 000 km railway lines.
Please remember, that railway lines in Europe were build in a different time period and served different purpose. Many of those lines were in operation when there were no cars invented yet. Many countries in Europe has now the problem of operating such small lines. China, builds it network in a different age. There is a existing competition from cars and planes, so the standards are different. I don't think, that comparing railway network density in any European country with China is appropriate. If China would want to have railway density similar to let's say Czech Republic, I'm sure that this is a very nice way into a bankruptcy.
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 01:27 PM   #5859
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gdolniak View Post
Many countries in Europe has now the problem of operating such small lines.
Yet Germany is reopening small lines that had been shut down for a time:
http://zierke.com/shasta_route/pages/44reactivate.html

Cars might compete, but building roads for cars and buses costs, too.

But high speed railways are still important. Low speed railways are no faster than buses and private cars on competing roads - but the high speed railways are faster.
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 01:36 PM   #5860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gdolniak View Post
Please remember, that railway lines in Europe were build in a different time period and served different purpose. Many of those lines were in operation when there were no cars invented yet. Many countries in Europe has now the problem of operating such small lines. China, builds it network in a different age. There is a existing competition from cars and planes, so the standards are different. I don't think, that comparing railway network density in any European country with China is appropriate. If China would want to have railway density similar to let's say Czech Republic, I'm sure that this is a very nice way into a bankruptcy.
The way I think about it is to compare passenger traffic with Japan, because they developed during an age where rail had to compete with airplanes, cars and trucks.
  • So 90% of China's population live in one-third of the country, at a similar population density to Japan. So that is roughly equivalent to ten Japans.
  • The other 10% of China's population are much more sparsely populated

So you get an upper limit of around 270,000km for China for passenger traffic, but bear in mind that some of the Japanese lines were built in an era when cars didn't exist.

Note that Japan essentially has no freight traffic on their rail network.

===

So for freight traffic, but there's not really a good comparison here. The closest is the US which is geographically the same size, but has a much lower population, but with longer average distances and longer trains than China.

Now they have a privatised and profitable rail network which has shrunk from 400,000km to 226,000km today, where the traffic is almost all freight.

So my gut feeling is that China would need:

1. a core freight network of about 30000-40000km
2. a core HSR passenger network of about 20000km-30000km
3. Then a lower-traffic shared freight/passenger network of 150000-200000km

So that would be a total rail network of 200,000km-270,000km
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