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Old May 3rd, 2013, 02:31 PM   #5861
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Originally Posted by Restless View Post
2. a core HSR passenger network of about 20000km-30000km
China is 20 times the area of Spain, and 29 times the population. Spain has 2144 km AVE... so China needs over 40 000 km HSR.

Spain is still building, too.
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 08:08 PM   #5862
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Is a mature high speed rail network in China going to eliminate the need for short haul flights? I ask because China is also building up their airport network, it makes me wonder if all the added airport capacity will become useless.
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 08:26 PM   #5863
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Originally Posted by Restless View Post
So for freight traffic, but there's not really a good comparison here. The closest is the US which is geographically the same size, but has a much lower population, but with longer average distances and longer trains than China.

Now they have a privatised and profitable rail network which has shrunk from 400,000km to 226,000km today, where the traffic is almost all freight.

So my gut feeling is that China would need:

1. a core freight network of about 30000-40000km
2. a core HSR passenger network of about 20000km-30000km
3. Then a lower-traffic shared freight/passenger network of 150000-200000km

So that would be a total rail network of 200,000km-270,000km
From my observation Chinese freight traffic seems to be quite a bit denser than the US so I don't think that many kilometer is needed, afterall the US has three coasts so they need to ship stuff across the country all the time, while in China you don't have to ship a lot of stuff from Urumqi to Guangzhou.
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 08:39 PM   #5864
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while in China you don't have to ship a lot of stuff from Urumqi to Guangzhou.
You cannot "ship" them, Urumqi has neither coastline nor navigable rivers. The population of Xinjiang (22 millions) is smaller than California, but California has a coast anyway. Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado and Idaho combined have about as much population as Xinjiang, and also neither coast nor useful navigable rivers.
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Old May 3rd, 2013, 08:43 PM   #5865
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FM 2258 View Post
Is a mature high speed rail network in China going to eliminate the need for short haul flights? I ask because China is also building up their airport network, it makes me wonder if all the added airport capacity will become useless.
Of course it will have (or already has) a negative effect on short haul flights, but in a huge country like China there are enough longer routes within the country.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 02:12 AM   #5866
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
China is 20 times the area of Spain, and 29 times the population. Spain has 2144 km AVE... so China needs over 40 000 km HSR.

Spain is still building, too.
Note that Renfe in Spain makes very large losses every year.

And Spain was already a developed country when it started building HSR, so they have to deal with Madrid in the middle and then building lots of lines in all different directions to lots of smallish cities.

In comparison, I think the HSR lines in China will concentrate most of the urban population growth around them. That's good since HSR has a lot of passenger capacity and you need lots of traffic for more revenue and destinations.

Eg. Madrid to Barcelona only run 17 trains per day but is capable of running 150+ trains per day which is what Tokyo-Osaka operates.

I also recall a Japanese study which showed that Chinese HSR lines had a lot more cities and people clustered around a line, than in a number of European examples.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 02:20 AM   #5867
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FM 2258 View Post
Is a mature high speed rail network in China going to eliminate the need for short haul flights? I ask because China is also building up their airport network, it makes me wonder if all the added airport capacity will become useless.
It'll reduce the demand for short-haul flights, but there will still be lots of medium and long haul traffic, as the economy keeps growing.

So this round of airport expansion will definitely be used up within 5years.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 02:31 AM   #5868
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmwv View Post
From my observation Chinese freight traffic seems to be quite a bit denser than the US so I don't think that many kilometer is needed, afterall the US has three coasts so they need to ship stuff across the country all the time, while in China you don't have to ship a lot of stuff from Urumqi to Guangzhou.
True, but if you look at China, it is densely populated over one-third of the area, even deep in the interior. Plus freight railways don't scale up as easily in terms of capacity, so I can see places needing 4tracks just for freight.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 03:03 AM   #5869
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
True, but if you look at China, it is densely populated over one-third of the area, even deep in the interior. Plus freight railways don't scale up as easily in terms of capacity, so I can see places needing 4tracks just for freight.
I agree.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 04:45 AM   #5870
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Frankly, I am very suprised to see the change on this forum regarding Chinese rail investment. People used to claim China was over-investing to rail. Now, apparently, most people think China is not investing enough and should reach #1 in even per capita rail What a turn around!
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Old May 4th, 2013, 10:39 AM   #5871
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Originally Posted by foxmulder View Post
Frankly, I am very suprised to see the change on this forum regarding Chinese rail investment. People used to claim China was over-investing to rail. Now, apparently, most people think China is not investing enough and should reach #1 in even per capita rail What a turn around!
People claim China was over-investing to rail never being through this. I did, it's not fun.


I had to wait in line like that, and watched in horror as 5 freaking trains that I could have taken filled up right before my eyes as i waited in line... My don't have unionpay, so can't reserve online.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 10:51 AM   #5872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luhai View Post
People claim China was over-investing to rail never being through this. I did, it's not fun.
[...]

I had to wait in line like that, and watched in horror as 5 freaking trains that I could have taken filled up right before my eyes as i waited in line... My don't have unionpay, so can't reserve online.
I won't argue about it, but the above photo was taken at the beginning of January (see the dates on the board) during the Chinese New Year rush. Please remember, that any other period of the year, the lines aren't that long.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 11:12 AM   #5873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
True, but if you look at China, it is densely populated over one-third of the area, even deep in the interior. Plus freight railways don't scale up as easily in terms of capacity, so I can see places needing 4tracks just for freight.
As well as places needing 4 tracks just for passengers.

How does the capacity of a 4 track line compare with capacity of two parallel but distant railways of 2 tracks each?
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Old May 4th, 2013, 12:11 PM   #5874
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gdolniak View Post
I won't argue about it, but the above photo was taken at the beginning of January (see the dates on the board) during the Chinese New Year rush. Please remember, that any other period of the year, the lines aren't that long.
But even outside the spring festival, the railways are still at full capacity. Fact is, China is huge. As in, double the size of the US and Europe combined, huge.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 01:36 PM   #5875
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Originally Posted by urbanfan89 View Post
Fact is, China is huge. As in, double the size of the US and Europe combined, huge.
China is about the same size as the US.



Perhaps you are talking about the population?
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Old May 4th, 2013, 02:09 PM   #5876
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Empty square kilometres don't use trains, people do.

When discussing transport infrastructure population is a more relevant statistic than size. If China manages to achieve the same per capita income a neighbouring South Korea (currently about 1/3) or better then mobility of the population will increase drastically and there will be a great need for further improvements in all modes of transportation.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 02:50 PM   #5877
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Empty square kilometres don't use trains, people do.
Yes, but people living on otherwise empty square kilometres do use trains.

Canada has quite a lot of railway kilometres per head. Precisely because Canada is so empty. China needs a lot of railway km to serve the few people living in Hotan and between Kashgar and Hotan. A similar sized town in Eastern China would need much less railways because it would be much nearer a major city already served by rail than Hotan is to Kashgar - it would therefore be served by a short railway branch, or preferrably by a through line also connecting to another major city....

As of December 2012, Golmud-Ruoqiang-Korla railway was orange. Has it started actual construction since?

Also, I see that there is a red line Korla-Turpan - and it is double. What is the design speed? And what is the opening due date?
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Old May 4th, 2013, 02:59 PM   #5878
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foxmulder View Post
Frankly, I am very suprised to see the change on this forum regarding Chinese rail investment. People used to claim China was over-investing to rail. Now, apparently, most people think China is not investing enough and should reach #1 in even per capita rail What a turn around!
It's not as if the level of investment has remained the same over the period.
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Old May 4th, 2013, 07:43 PM   #5879
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Old May 5th, 2013, 09:42 AM   #5880
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
You cannot "ship" them, Urumqi has neither coastline nor navigable rivers. The population of Xinjiang (22 millions) is smaller than California, but California has a coast anyway. Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado and Idaho combined have about as much population as Xinjiang, and also neither coast nor useful navigable rivers.
Frankly I have no idea what are you talking about, "ship" also means transport in English, it's not limited to transport using ships. My point was that the US (and for that matter Canada) has two coastlines each deals with a unique set of export/import market. Therefore there are demand to ship stuff across the country in large quantity frequently, that's not the case in China. While it needs denser freight lines in central and eastern provinces, it won't need as many freight lines that span across the whole country.
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