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Old July 24th, 2013, 04:34 PM   #6221
Pansori
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sopomon View Post

By this logic, nearly everyone should be spending like the clappers.

But, there's a thing called money, and the world is in debt to itself, China included. If they could afford to continue spending as they were, don't you think they would?
Not everyone. Spending on infrastructure is needed if there is demand for it and the system is inadequate and insufficient which is the case with China. Germany or Japan, for instance, have fully developed and adequate systems which is why they only need to maintain them without much need to invest into new developments.

China's system is still far from adequate, the demand is sharp and economy will have to keep growing. Which is why arguing against it is plain stupid. If Japan or Germany would start spending hundreds of billions on new projects then it would be a problem.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 04:40 PM   #6222
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Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
And this is why you can't get a 1st class or deluxe ticket for the next half a day? I didn't get that. I did take a picture of the ticket machine screen where it says 'sold out' for all trains and all classes. So you're saying that I should be OK to just go to the station and buy a 1st class ticket for the next hour or so? I just don't want to waste time hanging in the station for 5 hours again.
For the high speed trains running between Guangzhou and Shenzhen there is no need to buy tickets in advance. Just buy it at the window.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 04:51 PM   #6223
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Originally Posted by gdolniak View Post
For the high speed trains running between Guangzhou and Shenzhen there is no need to buy tickets in advance. Just buy it at the window.
That's what I tried
image hosted on flickr

IMG_2105 -1 by jo.sau, on Flickr
I bought my ticket at around 11.50. The first train I could take was 16:05
Maybe it was just that time? So you say it won't happen like this from GZ South to Gongbei?
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Old July 24th, 2013, 04:56 PM   #6224
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sopomon View Post
If they could afford to continue spending as they were, don't you think they would?
Last time I checked China actually increased the HSR budget, during 2012, up to a new record of about 100 billion dollars.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 05:36 PM   #6225
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Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
OK thanks I will do. One thing that strikes me though is the level of stupidity of some of those 'experts' and 'analysts' cited by the likes of WSJ or The Economist. They kinda silenced on the investment in China's HSR system lately but the tirade was going full steam just like a year ago or so.
I mean all it takes is to just try using the transport system to get somewhere in China. Even from Shenzhen to Guangzhou if you like. Even such seemingly developed locations like Shenzhen (including the super cool SZ North station) are seemingly just about managing to cope with the challenges arising from growing demand and load on the transport network. That includes the long distance trains, city public transport and even roads. Everything. If after spending a week in a place and never having got a seat in a metro train or being unable to get a Deluxe class train ticket for the next half of a day is normal then, if anything, China needs to speed up investment in transport, not slow it. I mean what a completely idiotic and retarded position it is to even consider an idea that China is building too much transport. It strikes me that those reputable newspapers and magazines publish such nonsense on a regular basis as if it was a legitimate position.
That's a valid point either they are questioning the safety of the network, the financial viablity and so on. It's basically just raises doubts over the planning and implementation ability of the governments on the Mainland. It's an attack on the government indirectly.

Anybody who lives , works or travels in China frequently would realize from personal experience that investment in infrastruture needs to be maintained or sped up not reduced or stopped.

I remember reading articles just last year in the economist claiming that metro construction would come to an abrupt halt due to financing problems what not. A year on the truth is the reverse.

Such articles can't be taken seriously by anyone on the ground here but they aren't directed at that audience.
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Old July 24th, 2013, 10:36 PM   #6226
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
OK thanks I will do. One thing that strikes me though is the level of stupidity of some of those 'experts' and 'analysts' cited by the likes of WSJ or The Economist. They kinda silenced on the investment in China's HSR system lately but the tirade was going full steam just like a year ago or so.
I mean all it takes is to just try using the transport system to get somewhere in China. Even from Shenzhen to Guangzhou if you like. Even such seemingly developed locations like Shenzhen (including the super cool SZ North station) are seemingly just about managing to cope with the challenges arising from growing demand and load on the transport network. That includes the long distance trains, city public transport and even roads. Everything. If after spending a week in a place and never having got a seat in a metro train or being unable to get a Deluxe class train ticket for the next half of a day is normal then, if anything, China needs to speed up investment in transport, not slow it. I mean what a completely idiotic and retarded position it is to even consider an idea that China is building too much transport. It strikes me that those reputable newspapers and magazines publish such nonsense on a regular basis as if it was a legitimate position.
Luckily the Chinese Government doesn't draw up its plans based on articles from foreign media outlets.
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Old July 25th, 2013, 12:06 AM   #6227
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
That's what I tried
image hosted on flickr

IMG_2105 -1 by jo.sau, on Flickr
I bought my ticket at around 11.50. The first train I could take was 16:05
Maybe it was just that time? So you say it won't happen like this from GZ South to Gongbei?
听说 gossip from other forums that the total number of seats available is divided into pools between outside agents, self-service machines, and the station ticket seller windows. At some short time (30 minutes?) before departure, any remaining tickets suddenly appear on the station clerks' machines. Might be urban legend ...
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Old July 25th, 2013, 06:01 AM   #6228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
That's what I tried
image hosted on flickr

IMG_2105 -1 by jo.sau, on Flickr
I bought my ticket at around 11.50. The first train I could take was 16:05
Maybe it was just that time? So you say it won't happen like this from GZ South to Gongbei?
I never had such problems. Even during the Chinese New Year, there is no problem with buying any tickets between Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Problems can appear around Qingming Festival, but then the waiting time is around an hour or so.

One time I took the train from Gongbei to Guangzhou. Once again - no problem with buying tickets. Nicely enough, at Gongbei station, people were able to buy tickets for high-speed trains originating from Guangzhou elsewhere.
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Old July 25th, 2013, 06:26 AM   #6229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kunming tiger View Post
[...]
Anybody who lives , works or travels in China frequently would realize from personal experience that investment in infrastruture needs to be maintained or sped up not reduced or stopped. [..]
True - China needs to invest more in the infrastructure. But building fast and faster isn't always a good idea. Proper planning and safety is more important.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kunming tiger View Post
[...]I remember reading articles just last year in the economist claiming that metro construction would come to an abrupt halt due to financing problems what not. A year on the truth is the reverse.[..]
Do you have a link for me to this article? I'm very interested in reading the reasoning behind their assumption.

Re: financing problems - the truth is not reverse. Maybe there is a flow of money into the current project, but the situation in the Chinese banking sector is telling us something different. Look at the situation of some municipalities - they have financial problems as well. Economical growth is slowing. It is predicted to be "around 7%" this year. Industrial output is now at 11 month low. Also, don't forget that the transportation sector benefited a lot from the government stimulus programs (Remember 2007/08?), so if one year ago The Economist predicted a stop of money flow to these projects, they were not wrong. (I have not read this article and cannot find it on the net, so I cannot further comment on it)

Good news from today is that Chinese government is opening up railways construction in another stimulus program:

Quote:
24 July 2013 Last updated at 22:46 ET
China unveils fresh measures to boost growth

The steps include tax breaks for small businesses, reduced fees for exporters and opening up of railway construction.

China's economic growth rate has slowed for two quarters in a row and there are concerns that it may slow further.

But the cabinet said the economy is in a reasonable shape and it was pushing for reforms to stabilise growth.

"The economy is still running in a reasonable range," the cabinet said.

"We must look at now and beyond to let restructuring and reform play an active role in stabilizing growth."

Data released earlier this month showed that China's economic growth slowed in the April to June period.

The world's second biggest economy grew by 7.5% compared to the previous year, down from 7.7% in the January to March period.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23445528
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Old July 25th, 2013, 06:54 AM   #6230
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Gdolniak over the past 4 years or so there were quite a few articles on The Economist magazine about China's HSR program. Every single one of them is negative or with a major negative note. I'm sure you can still find it on their website. It is also interesting to read their comments under articles because they often provide better informed views than the articles themselves. They don't censor comments which are not in line with their own view like the BBC does so you may find some interesting discussions there.
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Old July 25th, 2013, 10:28 AM   #6231
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Originally Posted by Peloso View Post
Last time I checked China actually increased the HSR budget, during 2012, up to a new record of about 100 billion dollars.
How much of these 100 milliard go to building new high speed railways, and how much go to building new high speed trains?

Do the existing high speed railways have any space left for more high speed trains, and are there any plans to increase frequencies on existing high speed rail lines?
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Old July 25th, 2013, 10:40 AM   #6232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gdolniak View Post
Here is my 五角 on this:

I do read The Economist. Their articles about China are positive. I might have missed few of them. Can you provide us links to those articles you mention?
Many of them. Here's one,

Quote:
Originally Posted by luhai View Post
I believe a few years ago, the concern was the station been too big and too empty...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...75C1OF20110613
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Old July 25th, 2013, 10:52 AM   #6233
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Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
OK thanks I will do. One thing that strikes me though is the level of stupidity of some of those 'experts' and 'analysts' cited by the likes of WSJ or The Economist. They kinda silenced on the investment in China's HSR system lately but the tirade was going full steam just like a year ago or so.
I mean all it takes is to just try using the transport system to get somewhere in China. Even from Shenzhen to Guangzhou if you like. Even such seemingly developed locations like Shenzhen (including the super cool SZ North station) are seemingly just about managing to cope with the challenges arising from growing demand and load on the transport network. That includes the long distance trains, city public transport and even roads. Everything. If after spending a week in a place and never having got a seat in a metro train or being unable to get a Deluxe class train ticket for the next half of a day is normal then, if anything, China needs to speed up investment in transport, not slow it. I mean what a completely idiotic and retarded position it is to even consider an idea that China is building too much transport. It strikes me that those reputable newspapers and magazines publish such nonsense on a regular basis as if it was a legitimate position.
I can't agree with you more. That's exactly my perception every time I was taking a HSR or subway. HSR might be the best decision China ever made all along. And despite all the investment infrastructure is still under shortage in most areas. Maybe it's still 10 or 15 years before people should talk saturation or slowdown.
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Old July 25th, 2013, 12:46 PM   #6234
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But from a quick read, that's nothing to do with HSR. Even if he does mention it, it's probably an expample of the high spending levels that China has been using to weather the GFC. Plus that's an analyst quoted on Reuters, not the Economist
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Old July 25th, 2013, 04:58 PM   #6235
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Quote:
Originally Posted by big-dog View Post
Many of them. Here's one,
That's Reuters, not The Economist The Economist knows the difference between Maglev and a high-speed railway:

Quote:
[...]"I was recently in Shanghai and I took their high-speed train to Hangzhou," he said, referring to the new Maglev line that has cut traveling time between the two cities to less than an hour from four hours previously.[...]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...75C1OF20110613
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Old July 25th, 2013, 05:11 PM   #6236
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Originally Posted by Sopomon View Post
But from a quick read, that's nothing to do with HSR. Even if he does mention it, it's probably an expample of the high spending levels that China has been using to weather the GFC. Plus that's an analyst quoted on Reuters, not the Economist
Isn't it about so called over investment on infrastructure and author used HSR stations and HSR as examples? Sorry for the confusion but I was not referring articles from The Economist. I'm a long term subscriber of TE and I agree TE is pretty objective and insightful on most topics.
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Old July 25th, 2013, 05:41 PM   #6237
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Originally Posted by big-dog View Post
Isn't it about so called over investment on infrastructure and author used HSR stations and HSR as examples? Sorry for the confusion but I was not referring articles from The Economist. I'm a long term subscriber of TE and I agree TE is pretty objective and insightful on most topics.
Exactly. I'm also a long term reader of The Economist and I know their articles. That's why I was asking about links to their articles with negative views on infrastructure spending in China, especially in high speed railway. Your link was a good example. Other news sources tend not to provide such objective articles and finding such articles there is a breeze.
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Old July 25th, 2013, 06:24 PM   #6238
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Originally Posted by xinxingren View Post
听说 gossip from other forums that the total number of seats available is divided into pools between outside agents, self-service machines, and the station ticket seller windows. At some short time (30 minutes?) before departure, any remaining tickets suddenly appear on the station clerks' machines. Might be urban legend ...
That's that I tried at Jinan, even the ticket person at Qufu said there might be some spare tickets at Jinan Ticket window. Which sadly is not the case. I had to take the evening train instead of the morning train...

Luckly, Daming lake is near by, so the day is not wasted.
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Old July 25th, 2013, 06:31 PM   #6239
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Originally Posted by gdolniak View Post

Exactly. I'm also a long term reader of The Economist and I know their articles. That's why I was asking about links to their articles with negative views on infrastructure spending in China, especially in high speed railway. Your link was a good example. Other news sources tend not to provide such objective articles and finding such articles there is a breeze.
Oh wow it's TE's readers club here. I happen to be one too... For the past 10 years at least


OK, take this for example.
http://www.economist.com/node/21542420

I mean cooooooome oooon. They do try to put some points there but are they really giving us any detail or insight? No. Jut general, vague and 'fits anything' kind of arguments that you could use for absolutely anything. Is that how a well written article should look like? The author clearly has zero knowledge on the topic yet 'hat to write something'. Its almost literally blah blah blah blah it's kinda bad what China is doing blah blah blah.

The article is clearly negative yet it doesn't provide any concrete and strong points besides the vague and repetitive ideas of safety (Wenzhou accident.... By that time it had been discussed like a million times and concrete measures taken).

Or this
http://www.economist.com/node/18488554

One article claims that fares are too high for 'ordinary people' yet another one says that fares need to be 'liberalized' to help cover costs (read increased).

OK that might not be such utter bullshit with five factual mistakes in one sentence as that Reuters article citing Roubini but the points made by TE are vague, provide no evidence or details, are uninsightful, unprofessional , cite unnamed 'experts' and are very much empty blah blah blah'ing and yet ALWAYS have a strong negative note to them.
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Old July 25th, 2013, 06:46 PM   #6240
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Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Oh wow it's TE's readers club here. I happen to be one too... For the past 10 years at least
Welcome to the club, Pansori ;-)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
[...]

Or this
http://www.economist.com/node/18488554

One article claims that fares are too high for 'ordinary people' yet another one says that fares need to be 'liberalized' to help cover costs (read increased).

OK that might not be such utter bullshit with five factual mistakes in one sentence as that Reuters article citing Roubini but the points made by TE are vague, provide no evidence or details, are uninsightful, unprofessional , cite unnamed 'experts' and are very much empty blah blah blah'ing and yet ALWAYS have a strong negative note to them.
Not that stupid, Pansori. Read this recent article, from no-one else but the almighty China Daily quoting Xinhua:

Quote:
High-speed rail expands ticket discount
Updated: 2013-06-23 00:58 ( Xinhua)

BEIJING - China's high-speed rail will start a summer discount for business cabins, state cabins and first-class seats on certain railway lines, the country's national railway operator announced Friday.

It is the first time for the high-speed rail discount to cover first-class tickets, but second-class ones, the hard-to-get tickets for some popular lines, are still excluded from this round of special offer.

According to China Railway Corporation, the discount, starting July 10 through August 31 and with variable rates of up to 20 percent, is implemented to "adapt to market demand."

The discounted tickets will be available for certain sections of the Beijing-Guangzhou and Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rails, some of which are discounted for the first time.

A faster way of travel, China's high-speed train services often receive complaints about its stubbornly high prices and transport capability unmatched with market demand.

Tickets around busy travel season, specially those of the economy class, often sold out soon after available, whereas some costly trains suffered low attendance.

"It is a good start, but I hope high-speed rails can be like the subway, running more in busy season and fewer in off season and not wasting on resources while claiming a deficit," said netizen "phils" on Sina Weibo, China's twitter-like microblogging service.

While some netizens complained that it provides little benefits to the price sensitive group targeting only second-class tickets, Wang Ming, deputy head of the Institute of Comprehensive Transportation of National Development and Reform Commission, said the discount is designed to adjust between demands of different market segments.

"Some passenger flows are stable. Some can be attracted by lower prices. The railway department has enough data to back up its decision and expects the price to balance the demand." Wang said in an interview with a local newspaper.

According to Guangzhou Railway Group, the national network's local operator in the southern transportation hub Guangzhou, this round of discount can provide a price reduction as much as 500 yuan ($81) for business class.

Under the discount, prices for some short-distance first-class tickets will be marked down to almost the same as the second-class, the railway operator added.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchin...t_16646651.htm
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