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Old February 12th, 2014, 02:20 AM   #7401
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
In that case the total in Asia should be something nearer to 1700?
Going with Wikipedia number I counted 34 700T, 386 Shinkansen and 66 KTX trainsets in service, so the total Asian HSR trainsets is right around 1500.

In Europe I counted 506 TGV, 259 ICE, 60 in Italy, and 96 in Spain. I didn't count other countries but I find it hard to believe HSR trainsets in Europe is anywhere near 1500.
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Old February 12th, 2014, 03:03 AM   #7402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmwv View Post
Going with Wikipedia number I counted 34 700T, 386 Shinkansen and 66 KTX trainsets in service, so the total Asian HSR trainsets is right around 1500.

In Europe I counted 506 TGV, 259 ICE, 60 in Italy, and 96 in Spain. I didn't count other countries but I find it hard to believe HSR trainsets in Europe is anywhere near 1500.
Don't forget another major player UK. It may not be famous for HSR like France or Japan but trains do go at 200km/h there. I quickly ran through Wikipedia and counted at least 435 trainsets in UK which are doing 200km/h or more in regular service. Should be a couple of hundred more in the rest of Europe. So I guess we're looking at something in the range of 1600-1700 trainsets.

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Old February 12th, 2014, 07:58 AM   #7403
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmwv View Post
Going with Wikipedia number I counted 34 700T, 386 Shinkansen and 66 KTX trainsets in service, so the total Asian HSR trainsets is right around 1500.

In Europe I counted 506 TGV, 259 ICE, 60 in Italy, and 96 in Spain. I didn't count other countries but I find it hard to believe HSR trainsets in Europe is anywhere near 1500.
It depends where you put a limit. The numbers I posted earlier where for 200 km/h+ trains, the ones you are posting now are for 250 km/h+ (300?) and that makes a difference.
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Old February 12th, 2014, 06:46 PM   #7404
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It depends where you put a limit. The numbers I posted earlier where for 200 km/h+ trains, the ones you are posting now are for 250 km/h+ (300?) and that makes a difference.
I wonder what is going to be the rollout rate of new 200+ km/h capable CRH trains in China over the next few years (say until 2018)?

Given the amount of new lines to be put online during 2014-2016 the numbers should be pretty damn big. Unless other countries would rollout new trainsets at a crazy rate too? But that doesn't look very likely because no other place has such a high amount of new lines coming online or even train building capacity.

Last edited by Pansori; February 12th, 2014 at 06:53 PM.
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Old February 12th, 2014, 07:34 PM   #7405
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I agree that if we count all 200km/h trainsets the number will be different.

As for Chinese HSR fleet they probably need another 1000 before 2020 to satisfy new lines as well as increase frequencies on existing ones. Japan has a quarter of China's HSR network but 1/2 of the number of trainsets. The other thing is CRH6, most of it won't count as HSR trainset because they are 160km/h, but mass transit agencies around China will be ordering massive numbers of that train too, We are probably looking at 200-300 trainsets of various CRH6 variants.

As more long lines are putting into service they will need more trainsets, simply because the turnaround time is going to be so long. Also I really, really, really hope they start overnight services (I was stuck in NKG for 9 hrs on CNY eve, wish we had an overnight CRH train to Sichuan), that'll significant increase demand for HSR sleeper trains. Taking into consideration of possible exports and replacement of older trains I think we can expect CNR and CSR to run at the current production rate for the next ten years.
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Old February 12th, 2014, 07:47 PM   #7406
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I think we can expect CNR and CSR to run at the current production rate for the next ten years.
What is the production rate at the moment? Even if approximate?
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Old February 13th, 2014, 12:14 AM   #7407
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Quote:
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What is the production rate at the moment? Even if approximate?
I don't have specifics but I know at the height of the buildup (~2010-11) the production rate is well over 200 trainsets a year. Then they didn't order anything until early 2013, so the rate dropped dramatically. What I've heard is that currently the production rate is between 120-140 trainsets. Considering several new facilities came online since 2010 such as CSR Jiangmen the current capacity should be around 250 trainsets.
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Old February 13th, 2014, 01:50 AM   #7408
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Quote:
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Given the amount of new lines to be put online during 2014-2016 the numbers should be pretty damn big. Unless other countries would rollout new trainsets at a crazy rate too? But that doesn't look very likely because no other place has such a high amount of new lines coming online or even train building capacity.
Other countries won't have a massive rollout of new trainsets for obvious reasons however in the more established user countries some of the newly built rolling stock will be for replacement of old trains not just to serve new lines.

As for brand new lines there is not a lot by Chinese standards in the next 5-6 years, but it isn't nothing either. I'd estimate about 500 km in France, 200 in Germany, 700 in Spain, ca 400 (?) in Turkey, 150 in Morocco, ca 150 in Denmark, some small stretches in Austria/Switzerland. Total in Europe and surrounding regions could be 2,000-2,500 km of 250 km/h+ of newly built lines.
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Old February 13th, 2014, 02:07 AM   #7409
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I made another couple of charts showing the length of China's HSR network by year.

I used numbers (including years on which relevant lines were/will be put in operation) which are provided in English Wikipedia. While 300-350km/h data seems to be reliable I got some confusion over 200km/h. Not least because 200km/h lines are a mix of upgraded and new railways. Anyway I think the numbers should be more or less correct.

Another thing i wasn't sure about was the Lanzhou-Urumqi railway. I included it in the 300+ km/h stats because that's what it's supposedly going to be. In Wikipedia (and elsewhere) it is marked as a 300km/h railway (as opposed to 350km/h for most other trunk lines lines). Does that means they are actually intending to run trains at 300km/h on that line? Or will they go at perhaps 250km/h? I draw such a question from the fact that after the slowdown campaign trains are running 300km/h on 350km/h lines and 200km/h on 250km/h lines.

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Old February 13th, 2014, 06:00 AM   #7410
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Old February 14th, 2014, 07:24 PM   #7411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Does that means they are actually intending to run trains at 300km/h on that line? Or will they go at perhaps 250km/h? I draw such a question from the fact that after the slowdown campaign trains are running 300km/h on 350km/h lines and 200km/h on 250km/h lines.
Look to the Haerbin line. It has cold weather issues similar to the one out to Ulumuqi, which also has elevation and tunnel issues.
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Old February 14th, 2014, 10:16 PM   #7412
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Look to the Haerbin line. It has cold weather issues similar to the one out to Ulumuqi, which also has elevation and tunnel issues.
That is understandable. However I would still like to get more clarification on whether trains will actually run at 300km/h there (even if not all year long).
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Old February 15th, 2014, 07:32 AM   #7413
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My understanding is that they will. Lanzhou to Urumuqi is going to be a 300/350kph line. 7000m turn radius means 350. There is a lot of CRH finalising this year and next, just keep reading the board and updates will appear. When the timetables come out you can do the Maths on avg velocity.
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Old February 15th, 2014, 04:22 PM   #7414
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Ok thanks. This actually IS the best English language source on Chinese HSR

I also wondered if there are any services in China running at 250km/h on 250km/h lines (NOT on 350km/h lines) these days? Most 'slow' HSR lines in China are 250km/h but my understanding is that after the 2011 slowdown they're only operating at 200 (maybe up to 210)km/h?
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Old February 15th, 2014, 06:02 PM   #7415
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Why do CRH trains not run at night? Do trains in general in China not run at night? Any reasons for the same?
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Old February 15th, 2014, 11:20 PM   #7416
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High speed tracks require daily maintenance, carried out at night. As more high speed trains are introduced, sleeper trains are reduced to permit more profitable freight trains.

Strange fact: Chinese railway ticket prices have been frozen since 1996 by government fiat. To circumvent this, trains are relabelled express, super express, etc to allow higher ticket prices. Replacing sleepers with high speed trains allow further ticket price hikes while officially maintaining the freeze on fares.
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Old February 15th, 2014, 11:26 PM   #7417
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Can somebody explain me why the train schedule on 12306.cn does not show the G79 Beijing to Guangzhou train on any of the days before February 26th? Is it not running at this time of year or what?
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Old February 15th, 2014, 11:32 PM   #7418
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Quote:
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Why do CRH trains not run at night? Do trains in general in China not run at night? Any reasons for the same?
Trains in general in China do run at night. Slow speed railway lines surely must need maintenance, yet long distance slow speed trains run through day and night. For example, there are 2 daily slow speed trains Beijing-Shanghai, namely 1461, that takes 20 hours 14 minutes departing 11:54, and arriving 8:08 next morning, and T109 that takes 14 hours 48 minutes departing 19:33 and arriving 10:21 next day.
But there are also 3 D trains nightly, numbers D313, D311 and D321. These take 11:41 to 11:42, departing 19:34, 21:16 and 21:23 and arriving 7:15, 8:58 and 9:04 next morning. They offer soft sleepers, but also second class seats not hard seats, so looks like they are CRH trains. Yet tey cover 1454 km Beijing South to Shanghai - so looks like they run on slow speed railway at night, not on high speed line.
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Old February 16th, 2014, 09:16 AM   #7419
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pansori View Post
Can somebody explain me why the train schedule on 12306.cn does not show the G79 Beijing to Guangzhou train on any of the days before February 26th? Is it not running at this time of year or what?
It is said that they have some scheduling problem
due to the CNY rush. They have to sacrifice this one
since it has the fewest stops. Hopefully it will be ok
next year.

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Old February 16th, 2014, 12:21 PM   #7420
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Trains in general in China do run at night. Slow speed railway lines surely must need maintenance, yet long distance slow speed trains run through day and night.
The conventional lines do not need daily inspection, high speed rail tracks in China are designed with such high of precision that daily CIT (comprehensive inspection train) are required to run daily to check any possible deformation on tracks and wires. If any errors are detected a sleeper tender train will follow to perform calibration. Conventional rail has a much higher error tolerance so a millimeter of track sink won't be an issue.
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