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Old March 17th, 2014, 05:44 PM   #7701
flankerjun
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmicbliss View Post
What about the following key concerns:
1. Can poor people afford HSR?
2. The financial burden of it?
the price can not raise recently,but the income is raising rapidly,for example,IN 2007,when the bullet train first time appeared in China,most people think they are too expensive,but now,if there is a bullet train within 1000KM,few people would buy a normal train or shuttle bus,these ticket on the day of festival often sold out only a few minnitues.
and the banks have too much money,they worry no one lend the money,
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Old March 17th, 2014, 07:13 PM   #7702
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Originally Posted by Cosmicbliss View Post
What about the following key concerns:
1. Can poor people afford HSR?
2. The financial burden of it?

1. CRH service is THE cheapest in the World. Workers can take these trains for their seasonal holidays.

2. Ridership looks very strong. As long as this is the case, probably, it will not have any problem paying the interest and operational cost. Will it cover the initial investment? My guess it will in the medium term.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 07:38 AM   #7703
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@Surel and Keber

I've had some experience with NIMBYs. I'll try to expound on it, and I won't derail (no pun intended) the discussion. I can see NIMBYs protesting some viaduct. There are a lot of people who protest a LOT of things. But the impact of actual NIMBYs on policy is often overstated.

If you think of it, NIMBYs are everywhere. Some protests work, but many more don't. Plenty of people have (legitimate) reasons to protest the rail shipment of nuclear waste materials, but they continue to take place.

Not all NIMBYs are sincere. There are astroturf campaigns with a vested interest silently supporting one position. Some of these protesters can only be described as useful idiots. And if you think this is merely some conspiracy theory, try to explain the existence of public relations firms.

I cringe a little whenever anyone asserts that "cost is not a factor." Cost is a factor in construction from a tool shed to the most expensive trophy skyscraper. It's one of the few universal truisms.

Doesn't the NIMBY dislike of the viaducts' cultural destruction/aesthetic uglinesssound fishy when compared to other environmental intrusions? High voltage power lines are an obvious candidate. Much taller and occupying much wider swaths of land than viaducts, and emitting EMF. The people (NIMBYs?) who live in their vicinity complain about mysterious illnesses. Yet overhead high voltage lines are continually refurbished and put up, despite protests.



Here's a picture of the European power grid:



http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/lib...euro_trans.GIF

With the obvious exception of undersea cables, just about all of these lines represent aesthetically hideous and not completely necessary overhead high voltage lines. Kinda kills the argument that the aesthetic tastes of European NIMBYs can block the erection of ugly structures.

The link to that Foreign Policy article also piqued my interest. The NIMBY objections to the proposed California rail line echo the criticisms of Chinese HSR in this thread.

The Foreign Policy article is flat out bad. It indulged the two minutes of hate for the evil foreigners, but it saved a lot of venom for the proposed California HSR.

The local TV news and newspapers have been airing more NIMBY (or astroturf) objections to California HSR. And surprise surprise, there are complaints about the railways being ugly. If you're not familiar with California, the HSR is proposed to run through the San Joaquin Valley. The San Joaquin Valley is flat, farmed intensively, and its cities (with the exception of Sacramento) are strictly D-list.

Who stands to gain if the California HSR is continually delayed? Right now, people take expensive and polluting short haul flights between the overburdened SoCal and equally overburdened NoCal airports. Or they drive 6-8 polluting hours on the overburdened I-5 or 99. At least the gas companies make a few bucks. I wonder if they advertise in Foreign Policy?
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Old March 18th, 2014, 09:02 AM   #7704
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foxmulder View Post
1. CRH service is THE cheapest in the World. Workers can take these trains for their seasonal holidays.

2. Ridership looks very strong. As long as this is the case, probably, it will not have any problem paying the interest and operational cost. Will it cover the initial investment? My guess it will in the medium term.
Well, cheapest is relative considering that China is still a developing country. Japan/Spain/Germany have already become developed or first world countries. Every article I have read claims that migrant workers generally cannot afford the tickets on HSR. I have a lot of admiration for China HSR; just want to clarify this point.
Second, as the HSR fans out, it will go into areas where the ridership is not that strong. China is already dealing with a debt problem, so the financial implications of HSR are significant.

I may be wrong on those counts but this is the general impression of HSR's weaknesses.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 09:04 AM   #7705
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Quote:
Originally Posted by particlez View Post
@Surel and Keber

I've had some experience with NIMBYs. I'll try to expound on it, and I won't derail (no pun intended) the discussion. I can see NIMBYs protesting some viaduct. There are a lot of people who protest a LOT of things. But the impact of actual NIMBYs on policy is often overstated.

If you think of it, NIMBYs are everywhere. Some protests work, but many more don't. Plenty of people have (legitimate) reasons to protest the rail shipment of nuclear waste materials, but they continue to take place.

Not all NIMBYs are sincere. There are astroturf campaigns with a vested interest silently supporting one position. Some of these protesters can only be described as useful idiots. And if you think this is merely some conspiracy theory, try to explain the existence of public relations firms.

I cringe a little whenever anyone asserts that "cost is not a factor." Cost is a factor in construction from a tool shed to the most expensive trophy skyscraper. It's one of the few universal truisms.

Doesn't the NIMBY dislike of the viaducts' cultural destruction/aesthetic uglinesssound fishy when compared to other environmental intrusions? High voltage power lines are an obvious candidate. Much taller and occupying much wider swaths of land than viaducts, and emitting EMF. The people (NIMBYs?) who live in their vicinity complain about mysterious illnesses. Yet overhead high voltage lines are continually refurbished and put up, despite protests.



Here's a picture of the European power grid:



http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/lib...euro_trans.GIF

With the obvious exception of undersea cables, just about all of these lines represent aesthetically hideous and not completely necessary overhead high voltage lines. Kinda kills the argument that the aesthetic tastes of European NIMBYs can block the erection of ugly structures.

The link to that Foreign Policy article also piqued my interest. The NIMBY objections to the proposed California rail line echo the criticisms of Chinese HSR in this thread.

The Foreign Policy article is flat out bad. It indulged the two minutes of hate for the evil foreigners, but it saved a lot of venom for the proposed California HSR.

The local TV news and newspapers have been airing more NIMBY (or astroturf) objections to California HSR. And surprise surprise, there are complaints about the railways being ugly. If you're not familiar with California, the HSR is proposed to run through the San Joaquin Valley. The San Joaquin Valley is flat, farmed intensively, and its cities (with the exception of Sacramento) are strictly D-list.

Who stands to gain if the California HSR is continually delayed? Right now, people take expensive and polluting short haul flights between the overburdened SoCal and equally overburdened NoCal airports. Or they drive 6-8 polluting hours on the overburdened I-5 or 99. At least the gas companies make a few bucks. I wonder if they advertise in Foreign Policy?
Are you sure Americans would take the railways? In India and China we have a lot of people for whom the railways is THE main mode of transport. But in the USA, given how high car ownership is and entrenched anti-railway lobby, seems doubtful.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 09:31 AM   #7706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmicbliss View Post
Well, cheapest is relative considering that China is still a developing country. Japan/Spain/Germany have already become developed or first world countries. Every article I have read claims that migrant workers generally cannot afford the tickets on HSR. I have a lot of admiration for China HSR; just want to clarify this point.
Second, as the HSR fans out, it will go into areas where the ridership is not that strong. China is already dealing with a debt problem, so the financial implications of HSR are significant.

I may be wrong on those counts but this is the general impression of HSR's weaknesses.
The system doesn't need to be affordable for absolutely everyone to be success. As a rule poor people don't travel much. In a country as populous as China just use by the middle class is enough to make the system busy. Chinese posters would know this better, but I haven't heard of any lines with very low ridership.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 12:08 PM   #7707
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
The system doesn't need to be affordable for absolutely everyone to be success. As a rule poor people don't travel much. In a country as populous as China just use by the middle class is enough to make the system busy.
Meaning the system is still far too small - China holds a lot of poor people who yet need to travel, being migrant workers. So China needs a capacious and cheap system to carry these.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 06:09 PM   #7708
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del

Last edited by Surel; March 18th, 2014 at 06:57 PM.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 06:10 PM   #7709
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Quote:
Originally Posted by particlez View Post
@Surel and Keber

I've had some experience with NIMBYs. I'll try to expound on it, and I won't derail (no pun intended) the discussion. I can see NIMBYs protesting some viaduct. There are a lot of people who protest a LOT of things. But the impact of actual NIMBYs on policy is often overstated.

If you think of it, NIMBYs are everywhere. Some protests work, but many more don't. Plenty of people have (legitimate) reasons to protest the rail shipment of nuclear waste materials, but they continue to take place.

Not all NIMBYs are sincere. There are astroturf campaigns with a vested interest silently supporting one position. Some of these protesters can only be described as useful idiots. And if you think this is merely some conspiracy theory, try to explain the existence of public relations firms.

I cringe a little whenever anyone asserts that "cost is not a factor." Cost is a factor in construction from a tool shed to the most expensive trophy skyscraper. It's one of the few universal truisms.

Doesn't the NIMBY dislike of the viaducts' cultural destruction/aesthetic uglinesssound fishy when compared to other environmental intrusions? High voltage power lines are an obvious candidate. Much taller and occupying much wider swaths of land than viaducts, and emitting EMF. The people (NIMBYs?) who live in their vicinity complain about mysterious illnesses. Yet overhead high voltage lines are continually refurbished and put up, despite protests.


....

I am not sure if we understand each other here. What I was saying is that the Chinese designs, construction speeds, methods, are often not likely obtainable in majority of the European countries, due to the legal requirements and legal rights that have to be respected. In order to respect those rights and requirements the construction becomes manifold more expensive and the designs, speeds and methods have to be different! Often those requirements also cause many inefficiencies that would otherwise not occur. The financial limit is thus invoked not by the available finances, but by the legal environment that makes the construction much more costly.

I don't propose a judgement on what is better - i.e. to have more regulation and less and costlier construction, or have less regulation and more and cheaper construction. Those are both legitimate political trade offs. I am not here to say which one is better. I think a common sense approach that doesn't go to extreme on both sides (i.e. too much regulation, or too little) are good is the best one.

Yes, China invests the most in the infrastructure, but e.g. EU invested just 20 % less funds between 92-11. The difference is about what it got for the invested funds, if you look at the amount of railways and roads built, there you can see the main difference - the costs of the infrastructure.



Should e.g. the EU give the same amount of gdp on infrastructure as China? I think it should invest more, but I don't think that the same rate is required.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 06:46 PM   #7710
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flankerjun View Post
In China most people think they are too expensive but now if there is a bullet train within 1000KM few people would buy a normal train or shuttle bus,these ticket on the day of festival often sold out only a few minutes.
What you see is the middle class and above not taking normal train.
Everyone else - the other 1,000 million people - think that the long distance bus is too expensive and thus a CRH train would be too expensive as well.

How do I know? I live here and I ask people.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 06:48 PM   #7711
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chornedsnorkack View Post
Meaning the system is still far too small - China holds a lot of poor people who yet need to travel, being migrant workers. So China needs a capacious and cheap system to carry these.
It has this system. Those without money won't travel on anything more expensive no matter how much time it saves them. Money is more important than time. They take the hard seat old trains, packed to beyond capacity, standing room only and far beyond it.

Been there, experienced it.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 06:50 PM   #7712
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Originally Posted by Cosmicbliss View Post
Are you sure Americans would take the railways? In India and China we have a lot of people for whom the railways is THE main mode of transport. But in the USA, given how high car ownership is and entrenched anti-railway lobby, seems doubtful.
They won't, it's not due to a lobby. It's due to choice, common sense, saving time and convenience.

I won't derail this thread with thousands of words why HSR does not work in the Western Hemisphere.

It doesn't. Accept this.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 07:00 PM   #7713
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Originally Posted by foxmulder View Post
Isn't that a great figure? I wish it was 100%. Longest bridge should be somewhere on that line, too with ~160km.
Danyang–Kunshan Grand Bridge , world's longest.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danyang...n_Grand_Bridge
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Old March 18th, 2014, 07:42 PM   #7714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
They won't, it's not due to a lobby. It's due to choice, common sense, saving time and convenience.

I won't derail this thread with thousands of words why HSR does not work in the Western Hemisphere.

It doesn't. Accept this.
You could PM it to me, when you have the time
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Old March 18th, 2014, 07:44 PM   #7715
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China Hand, you can PM me if you want and have the time
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Old March 18th, 2014, 08:33 PM   #7716
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Surel View Post
I am not sure if we understand each other here. What I was saying is that the Chinese designs, construction speeds, methods, are often not likely obtainable in majority of the European countries, due to the legal requirements and legal rights that have to be respected. In order to respect those rights and requirements the construction becomes manifold more expensive and the designs, speeds and methods have to be different! Often those requirements also cause many inefficiencies that would otherwise not occur. The financial limit is thus invoked not by the available finances, but by the legal environment that makes the construction much more costly.

I don't propose a judgement on what is better - i.e. to have more regulation and less and costlier construction, or have less regulation and more and cheaper construction. Those are both legitimate political trade offs. I am not here to say which one is better. I think a common sense approach that doesn't go to extreme on both sides (i.e. too much regulation, or too little) are good is the best one.

Yes, China invests the most in the infrastructure, but e.g. EU invested just 20 % less funds between 92-11. The difference is about what it got for the invested funds, if you look at the amount of railways and roads built, there you can see the main difference - the costs of the infrastructure.



Should e.g. the EU give the same amount of gdp on infrastructure as China? I think it should invest more, but I don't think that the same rate is required.

Frankly, what is Europe is spending in infrastructure doesn't change a single thing for China. China needs this investment. Some people states (I guess this includes you too) China is investing too much by comparing the spending rates in US and Europe to that of China. China needs to spend more, much more than those countries because of obvious three facts: Its population, growth rate and in conjunction with these urbanization rate.

Another point made is this build up is "harmful" to population and somehow some "rights" are being stripped. Which is again misguided. Especially, high speed rail is a bliss for China, for its people and its environment. no other transportation method beats it. And some demolitions of old houses (which is really nothing in whole picture) because of railroad lines is not a sign of lawlessness, people are compensated.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 08:50 PM   #7717
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmicbliss View Post
Well, cheapest is relative considering that China is still a developing country. Japan/Spain/Germany have already become developed or first world countries. Every article I have read claims that migrant workers generally cannot afford the tickets on HSR. I have a lot of admiration for China HSR; just want to clarify this point.
Second, as the HSR fans out, it will go into areas where the ridership is not that strong. China is already dealing with a debt problem, so the financial implications of HSR are significant.

I may be wrong on those counts but this is the general impression of HSR's weaknesses.
? Tickets should be more subsidized to have cheaper tickets OR the system should be more profitable by increasing prices? You know, both cannot happen simultaneously.

China depth thing is a myth. Some local governments may have problems but as a whole China does not have a dept problem. If the worst comes and some city (which is not even a thing in China because almost all of the major infrastructure projects have the OK and the backing up of central government) or bank needs to be bailed out like happened in USA, china has the money already and does not need to borrow.

In short, do not worry. China has the money.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 09:03 PM   #7718
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Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
It has this system. Those without money won't travel on anything more expensive no matter how much time it saves them. Money is more important than time. They take the hard seat old trains, packed to beyond capacity, standing room only and far beyond it.

Been there, experienced it.
For example, take Beijing-Shanghai.
Hard seat on 1461 - 156 yuan 5 jiao, 20:14
Hard seat on T109 - 177 yuan 5 jiao, 14:48
Hard sleeper on 1461 - 304 yuan 5 jiao
Second class seat on overnight D trains - 309 yuan, 11:41 to 11:42
Hard sleeper on T109 - 325 yuan 5 jiao
Second class seat on daytime D trains - 408 yuan, 9:19 to 10:07
Soft sleeper on T109 - 497 yuan 5 jiao
Second class seat on G trains - 553 yuan, 4:48 to 5:58

Are D trains popular?
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Old March 18th, 2014, 09:16 PM   #7719
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Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
What you see is the middle class and above not taking normal train.
Everyone else - the other 1,000 million people - think that the long distance bus is too expensive and thus a CRH train would be too expensive as well.

How do I know? I live here and I ask people.
Poor people simply don't travel much regardless of country for the obvious reason that they can't afford it. 200 million people is enough to justify HSR system anyway and the hope is that middle class will grow and the number of people who can't afford to travel will diminish.
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Old March 18th, 2014, 09:19 PM   #7720
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Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
They won't, it's not due to a lobby. It's due to choice, common sense, saving time and convenience.

I won't derail this thread with thousands of words why HSR does not work in the Western Hemisphere.

It doesn't. Accept this.
I would believe you if there was at least one failed HS line in the Western Hemisphere, but there isn't so it's all just speculation on paper...
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