daily menu » rate the banner | guess the city | one on oneforums map | privacy policy | DMCA | news magazine | posting guidelines

Go Back   SkyscraperCity > Infrastructure and Mobility Forums > Railways

Railways (Inter)national commuter and freight trains



Global Announcement

As a general reminder, please respect others and respect copyrights. Go here to familiarize yourself with our posting policy.


Reply

 
Thread Tools
Old March 21st, 2014, 11:33 AM   #7761
particlez
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 532
Likes (Received): 106

^go back a few pages. lots of left field critiques.
particlez está en línea ahora   Reply With Quote

Sponsored Links
Old March 21st, 2014, 02:20 PM   #7762
chornedsnorkack
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 4,979
Likes (Received): 388

Quote:
Originally Posted by hhzz View Post
Constructions in Anhui province.
In which month is Hefei-Shangrao-Fuzhou high speed railway due to open for scheduled service?
chornedsnorkack no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2014, 11:31 PM   #7763
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly_Walks View Post
The Dutch line is a blessing as it now just takes slightly over 3 hours to get from Amsterdam to Paris.

That it's horribly mismanaged and underused has different reasons, but is not because of lack of demand or potential passengers.
The Dutch line is a disaster as:

The costs for the line were ridiculous, which then means it doesn't make a financial profit.

It is severely underutilised, and will remain so because there are limited sources of traffic growth.

So it probably won't produce a net economic benefit because of the high construction costs AND because the region is already a rich urbanised area.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2014, 11:37 PM   #7764
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
First of all we were both talking about North/South America and their non existing HS lines. In UK there are no newly built HS lines except for the one to Channel tunnel and surely that one is profitable. In Spain, maybe you'll be right about one of the unfinished lines going to less populated corners (Galicia) but the ones already in operation connect major population centres (Madrid with Barcelona, Seville, Malaga and Valencia) and are almost certainly operationally profitable. It's toll roads parallel to free highways they have overbuilt not railways.

And lastly as unsuccessful I meant not so much in financial sense as in poorly used and not attracting much passengers from other modes of transportation. I don't think there are such examples anywhere.
Are you kidding me??

You "assume" that the UK high-speed railway is successful?

The UK high-speed railway line is a huge failure in terms of financial profitability AND overall economic benefit to the country. See below.

HS1 Channel link leaves £4.8bn debt, says MPs
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18733308
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2014, 11:44 PM   #7765
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
The lines still have a benefit, but losses must be taken, write-downs must occur, bond holders lose money. There is no such thing as free money - it comes from someone being productive.

Yet, if a country is willing to write off the loss it's good to have HSR rather than not. But convincing people to pay for it is a challenge especially when better alternatives exist such as in The Western Hemisphere.

Spain, especially, has HSR rail and stations To Nowhere after their RRE bubble popped.
Losses do not have to taken on the construction of a new high speed railway line.

This applies when you have a rapidly urbanising population which is growing richer - like China - rather than an already urbanised Europe.

It means that a new railway line can be wildly profitable due to huge passenger numbers AND large profits from property developments.

Look at developing Japan and the Tokaido Shinkansen, which was loss-making in the beginning, but rapidly paid off its construction debts.

That is the situation we now see in China.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 21st, 2014, 11:53 PM   #7766
aquaticko
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Manchester, NH
Posts: 2,004
Likes (Received): 1039

Maybe I'm jumping in at the wrong time, but you seem to be implying that the UK, maybe Netherlands, perhaps the U.S. and Canada, all missed the boat on HSR because they didn't build systems when they were developing, that they're no longer rapidly growing economically, and so consumption and settlement patterns are set, and won't change in the future. Is this correct? That seems like quite a pessimistic view of the future of the global economy.
aquaticko no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 12:03 AM   #7767
Sunfuns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Basel
Posts: 2,426
Likes (Received): 361

It's not clear from that article where exactly this debt comes from and how it was calculated. The article doesn't say anything about lack of economic benefit to the country.

About 10 million passengers used the service last year and it has a majority share of traffic on London-Paris and London-Brussels routes. Not as rosy as initially predicted, but still pretty good in my book. That tunnel is likely to be used for another century.

Anyway let's go back to Chinese rail which out to be subject of this particular thread...
Sunfuns no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 02:47 AM   #7768
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmwv View Post
I think that depends on the definition of "poor" people, migrant workers who have jobs in large cities can generally afford the infrequent travels on HSR. The 2-300 million in poverty mostly live in remote villages or western cities that don't have HSR service anyway. During my recent trip to China I find that the trains carry a significant percentage of what appear to be migrant workers or manual labour, to a point that it's no longer a very comfortable ride, thus most people travel on business opt for the first class seating. The guy sitting next to me is from Liuan in Anhui, he works in Shanghai as an appliance repair person, his family are all back in Liuan so every couple of months he travels back via HSR, he doesn't think the RMB 180 or so ticket is a huge issue, he said it used to cost half as much but the journey is so much longer it's completely worth it, because for most migrant workers time off is much harder to come by.

Regarding the financial burden, we cannot simply looking at direct revenue from ticket sales or station storefront leases. As a government infrastructure project the HSR network is also generating economic benefit in cities and towns along the line, boosting business and real estate values. By itself CRC is in the red, but if we counting the overall return I believe it's a firm plus.
The overall economic benefit is a huge positive for almost all of the lines.

The property development rights alone should pay off all the construction debts within 5-15 years, depending on the specific line section.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 02:54 AM   #7769
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by aquaticko View Post
Maybe I'm jumping in at the wrong time, but you seem to be implying that the UK, maybe Netherlands, perhaps the U.S. and Canada, all missed the boat on HSR because they didn't build systems when they were developing, that they're no longer rapidly growing economically, and so consumption and settlement patterns are set, and won't change in the future. Is this correct? That seems like quite a pessimistic view of the future of the global economy.
A high-speed railway line is a huge upfront investment which is essentially a fixed cost.

Once built, a high-speed railway line also has a huge carrying capacity.

In China/Japan, we're looking at:

1000 passengers per train
150 trains per day

That is a capacity of 150,000 passengers in one direction, and another 150,000 passengers in the other direction.
That is equivalent to a small city by itself.

===

So yes, developed countries are already urbanised along existing patterns, and there usually isn't enough future demand to justify completely new HSR line, although the specific situation does vary.
It's not pessimistic, just economics, as every infrastructure project should be sized to match expected demand.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 03:17 AM   #7770
Restless
Registered User
 
Restless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: London
Posts: 2,170
Likes (Received): 271

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfuns View Post
It's not clear from that article where exactly this debt comes from and how it was calculated. The article doesn't say anything about lack of economic benefit to the country.

About 10 million passengers used the service last year and it has a majority share of traffic on London-Paris and London-Brussels routes. Not as rosy as initially predicted, but still pretty good in my book. That tunnel is likely to be used for another century.

Anyway let's go back to Chinese rail which out to be subject of this particular thread...
Do you really want to read all the damning reports in detail?

10million passengers per year and 25 trains per day is a failure for Eurostar.
The original projections were over 25 million passengers by 2006, which is 12 years after opening.
If they had known passenger numbers would be so low, Eurotunnel would never have been built.

http://www.publications.parliament.u.../727/72705.htm

===

Remember the capacity of a new railway line is 150 trains per day, each carrying 1000 passengers.
A good example to look at would be the Beijing-Tianjin HSR which opened in 2008 and is the oldest HSR line in China.

To reach break-even on operating costs - they needed 30million passengers per year - which happened in 2012.
To start repaying the construction debt - they need 40million passengers per year - which is probably 2014-2015. This is 6 years after the line opened.

The planned capacity of the line is 100million passengers per year, which will almost certainly be reached within the next 10 years.

Last edited by Restless; March 22nd, 2014 at 03:25 AM.
Restless no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 05:41 AM   #7771
luhai
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 647
Likes (Received): 423

Having debates like these are fairly useless. It's like debating who will win a sports championships. Everyone have their opinions, but in the end, only time will tell. let's back topic.
__________________

China Hand, hmmwv liked this post
luhai no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 05:58 AM   #7772
China Hand
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 705
Likes (Received): 161

Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
The planned capacity of the line is 100million passengers per year, which will almost certainly be reached within the next 10 years.
Wow - that is a HUGE figure for just ONE HSR line.

But China's ridership figures, 61 million 2007, 180 million for 2009, 530 million in 2013, put that within reach.

Trains were half empty in early 2010.

Not any more.
__________________

FM 2258 liked this post
China Hand no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 08:47 AM   #7773
hmmwv
Registered User
 
hmmwv's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,391
Likes (Received): 420

Quote:
Originally Posted by China Hand View Post
I have other priorities in life than convincing someone thousands of kms distant of a conversation I had yesterday.

1 - Many work 6 days a week and 13 days of 14 - I speak with them. Friends and acquaintances. These are people in the western cities that we are discussing using the train.

2 - HSR prices are too expensive, the Chinese who live in western small cities tell me this to my face, in person, one this week when I mentioned if they would take the train.

I live in a Chinese western small city surrounded by villages. I don't live in Shanghai, or Europe doing online research on schedules arguing minutae.

This is 1st hand reporting of the attitudes of end consumers.

Continue to argue with me if you must, but I have other things to do.
chornedsnorkack used the example of Shanghai-Nanjing line, which is a region I can tell from first hand experience that people don't work 28 days out of the month. And believe or not "Chinese who live in western small cities" is not a very representative group of current or potential HSR consumers.

If you really don't care arguing with me then you probably should not have written the above reply.

Quote:
Originally Posted by luhai View Post
Having debates like these are fairly useless. It's like debating who will win a sports championships. Everyone have their opinions, but in the end, only time will tell. let's back topic.
Hear hear, we are have our opinions and I respect that, let's get back some more tangible aspect of Chinese HSR.
__________________
The building under construction next to Shanghai Tower is Oriental Financial Center. The "plot" next to Jinmao is reserved green belt and no skyscraper will be built there.
hmmwv no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 09:56 AM   #7774
Silly_Walks
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,980
Likes (Received): 836

Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
The Dutch line is a disaster as:

The costs for the line were ridiculous, which then means it doesn't make a financial profit.

It is severely underutilised, and will remain so because there are limited sources of traffic growth.

So it probably won't produce a net economic benefit because of the high construction costs AND because the region is already a rich urbanised area.
As I said, there is some mismanagement currently, which leads to the line being underutilized, but there is definitely demand for HSR. The Thalys on Amsterdam-Paris is very popular.

The line was built too expensively, so it is not making a profit. But show me a highway in the Netherlands that makes a profit...
Silly_Walks no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 10:30 AM   #7775
chornedsnorkack
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 4,979
Likes (Received): 388

Quote:
Originally Posted by Restless View Post
A good example to look at would be the Beijing-Tianjin HSR which opened in 2008 and is the oldest HSR line in China.

To reach break-even on operating costs - they needed 30million passengers per year - which happened in 2012.
To start repaying the construction debt - they need 40million passengers per year - which is probably 2014-2015. This is 6 years after the line opened.

The planned capacity of the line is 100million passengers per year, which will almost certainly be reached within the next 10 years.
Before 2024?
This means that by 2024, the line is full.
And that means - by 2024 a parallel line is needed.

There actually is a parallel line. The Beijing-Tianjin section of Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway. But it also has some load by now.

So. By which year will both these lines be full, and need 3rd parallel line?
How many years are needed to build and plan the 3rd line?
chornedsnorkack no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 10:52 AM   #7776
big-dog
Registered User
 
big-dog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,080
Likes (Received): 6840

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmwv View Post
... ... And believe or not "Chinese who live in western small cities" is not a very representative group of current or potential HSR consumers.
Yes majority of the population live in the east. The newly opened Xiamen-Shenzhen HSR is getting so popular that it's a norm that tickets are sold out 3 days in advance.
big-dog no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 11:25 AM   #7777
:jax:
Registered User
 
:jax:'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Södertälje
Posts: 1,303
Likes (Received): 540

Beijing-Tianjin is potentially worse. Both cities are growing at an outrageous rate, as is usual for Chinese metropolises. But in addition Tianjin is making a huge gamble at Binhai/Tanggu, in effect creating a new metropolis by the Bohai (with a massive new business district at Yujiapu/Xiangluowan). If we assume that it will work out as intended the transport need will be enormous, not only locally Binhai-Tianjin proper, but also Binhai-Beijing.

I have heard rumors of a line Beijing – Tangshan (confirm?). Speculatively, assuming a runaway success of Binhai, a third line could be a Y line Beiing Guomao – Tianjin Baodi – Tianjin Binhai. That would go through a whole lot of nothing right now, but building new lines is getting progressively harder as the population achieves middle class, so a whole lot of nothing is likely an advantage. (This is purely an idle thought from my part, from looking on a map, I have heard of no such plan in reality.)
:jax: no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 11:49 AM   #7778
:jax:
Registered User
 
:jax:'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Södertälje
Posts: 1,303
Likes (Received): 540

On the off-topic of working hours etc., what China Hand says fits well with my experience. When I lived in Beijing we hired some employees, and followed what the Chinese labour law actually says (around 45 working hours and so on, fairly European legalisation actually). After a while they asked if they could get the permission to work for others as well since they were only working half-time... Those that worked the most worked about 14 hours work day, 3 days off in a month.

With the brutal commute time in Beijing that means work-commute-(hopefully) sleep. They didn't have to do that, there were also many that worked "half time", but since they more than doubled their wages by working longer, "half time" was for the more financially secure, usually with Beijing hukou.

State employees work Monday-Friday, but tend to have more than 8 hour working days.
:jax: no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 12:13 PM   #7779
chornedsnorkack
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 4,979
Likes (Received): 388

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmwv View Post
chornedsnorkack used the example of Shanghai-Nanjing line, which is a region I can tell from first hand experience that people don't work 28 days out of the month.
And more importantly, hmmwv could report first hand experience with HSR full of what looked like migrant workers, and talking to them. I suppose that affording 180 yuan fare each 2 months is something more successful and richer than rock bottom "migrant worker", yet common.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmwv View Post
And believe or not "Chinese who live in western small cities" is not a very representative group of current or potential HSR consumers.
They are representative of some. Liuan is a small city. And how far west is west? Anhui and Jiangxi are poor provinces already. Actually poorer than Hunan, Hubei or Henan.

China and offered the example of slow rail taking 200 yuan and HSR 800 yuan. A western small city where this applies is Guilin: slow train to Beijing is 236 yuan, G train is 806 yuan, so 242 % over the hard seat price.

But the same Guilin has slow train to Nanning at 62 yuan 5 jiao or 64 yuan 5 jiao, and D trains to Nanning at 111 yuan - mere 78 % over the hard seat price, or less.

The poor migrant workers from the western small city of Guilin who may not be able to afford the 570 yuan price difference to save less than 12 hours travel time to Beijing, might nevertheless be able to afford the 48 yuan 5 jiao price difference to save 3 or more hours travel time to Nanning.

Looks like D trains are an attractive proposition even to western small cities... could more of them be built?

Does anyone know on which day Nanning-Wuzhou high speed railway should be opened after all?
chornedsnorkack no está en línea   Reply With Quote
Old March 22nd, 2014, 01:00 PM   #7780
China Hand
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 705
Likes (Received): 161

Quote:
Originally Posted by :jax: View Post
I have heard rumors of a line Beijing – Tangshan (confirm?). Speculatively, assuming a runaway success of Binhai, a third line could be a Y line Beiing Guomao – Tianjin Baodi – Tianjin Binhai.
Possible, but I hear nothing.

The CRH funding is at peak and slowing. New lines are just a few for opening 2017-2020. 10% or less of what is going on now. Most of the European Engineers have left and been replaced by Chinese team leader white hats.

If they were to go to the secondary and tertiary plans - Beijing to Tianjin Binhai, Inner Mongolia full trunk line, lines to the NW, N and NE of Haerbin, TaiYuan W to Yinchuan and then S to Lanzhou, connect Datong to Inner Mongolia N at Ulanqab and NE at ZhangJiaKou and to Ningxia to the W, tunnels or spurs to connect various close or intercity lines, Chongqing to Xian direct, the tunnel under Bohai from PengLai to Dalian, Kunming to Myanmar and Vietnam, and so on, then it would make sense to fund it and use the crews and talent that they have now and not furlough them and lose the knowledge base.

Upgrading old track, 20,000 kms of it or more, to 200kph would also be in these plans.

The big one would be a joint Russo-Sino rail link from China thru Mongolia, Siberia and Russia. Spurs could take one to Lake Baykal, Caspian Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea and central Europe. The line to Urulumuqi could be extended through Kazakhstan, to the Caspian Sea, Black Sea through Ukraine (?), Georgia, Turkey. Two lines. One to the north to Moscow, one to the south to Turkey.

7475kms.

Get on a train in Beijing, get off 30 hours later in Berlin.

There is as of this date no known plans to do so, although it is suspected.

Were this to happen, it would boggle the mind. China would have a HSR network that rivals most nation's AUTOBAHN networks. Another 10 years of buildout would be beyond superlatives.

Last edited by China Hand; March 22nd, 2014 at 01:18 PM.
China Hand no está en línea   Reply With Quote


Reply

Tags
china, high speed rail

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Related topics on SkyscraperCity


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 09:33 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Feedback Buttons provided by Advanced Post Thanks / Like (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2018 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.

vBulletin Optimisation provided by vB Optimise (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2018 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.

SkyscraperCity ☆ In Urbanity We trust ☆ about us | privacy policy | DMCA policy

tech management by Sysprosium